HF Habs: Analysis - The Inconsistency that come with Big Forwards

[Le Barron de HF]

This is an arbitrary cut-off and it weakens your analysis. Why not top10? Why not top60? Why draftees at all?

Think about what you're measuring: Time needed for Big Guys to be Impact Players in the NHL. You're not measuring draft-year "hype" vs. NHL outcome, are you? So why do you bother with that cut-off?

It depends on the tools you have available but perhaps looking for the age where [(1) 6'2" (2) Forwards (3) have first had two successive >0.8 PPG seasons] would help you uncover whether it takes Big Guys longer to appear.

What do you think?


They played big because they played with confidence and grit. Maurice had them playing with Big D Energy.

I went with top 15 because before expansions, that was half of the 1st round. Top 15 vs top 10 allowed me a bigger sample.

An additional reason to go with those players on top of draft pedigree is their role. What's the point of including a role player like McCarron when their point totals are so low and more subject to variance?

I think the Dobber research I cited tackles the info you're looking for a bit more as far as a breakout. I'm focusing on the development of players in their age 18-23 seasons which wouldn't really be tackled with your listed criteria.

 

[Ozmodiar]

I think teams draft players with bigger frames because they see it as extra potential. “Just wait until he fills out.” Sometimes they aren’t certain how they’ll excel but feel the big guys can impact the game with physical tools.

Big players, sometimes, have to figure out how to put their frame to good use. Which skills will complement that. I think that’s where Slaf’s at.

OTOH, small players usually have a good idea of what will make them successful. They don’t even get a look unless they’re near elite in a certain area. Caufield (shot) Hughes (transition), marner (puck handling). There’s more of a singular focus. If they can’t do it, they’re out.

If there is more variability, maybe this aspect of finding their game is partially responsible.

 

[417]

Good work @Le Barron de HF

I wonder if you did the same kind of research for smaller forwards, what you'd find?

Thank you for your contribution!

 

[JianYang]

I'm going to go further back to 1997 when Boston drafted jumbo Joe Thornton 1st overall, and little Sergei samsonov 7th overall.

Thornton came in as a can't miss star, and had alot more hype than than samsonov.

Both stepped into the nhl immediately, and it was samsonov who had by far the better year. Thornton finished with 7 points while samsonov had 47 points and won rookie of the year.

Even in the 2nd season, samsonov outproduced Thornton.

In year 3, Thornton took a step and hit 60 points. That's decent but that's still not the Thornton that was to come nor did it match his hype.

In year 4, he hit 70 points. Again, a step but not quite matching his hype.

Finally, in year 6, he breaks the 100 point mark and now we are seeing what everyone expected.

However, year 7 was a significant step back to the 70 point range.

But he rebounded in year 8 hitting the 100 point plateau again, and essentially never looked back from this point.

So this is a case that the little guy fared much better early on than the bigger guy who was considered the Golden goose. At the end of their careers however, it is laughable to suggest samsonov had anywhere near the impact that Thornton had.

However, it took alot of time for even a slam dunk like Thornton to hit his stride. Slakfkovsky is no Thornton in terms of talent, but it just goes to show that big guys can take alot of time even if you are one of the more hyped big guys of a particular era.

 

[Apfel Struble]

Notwithstanding the heights and weight, you look at the best Ds in the playoffs over the last few seasons and most of them are close to average height. Forsling was the best on Florida, he's under average at 6'1. Makar in Colorado, 5'11, 3 inches under. Pietrangelo, 6'3, just an inch above average. Theodore is 6'2 average. The real difference maker is talent and compete, not size.

I completely agree. Also average (or even median for that matter) is not a good measure of how big a team or the league is. For example, if we were to measure the size of the Habs forwards, Condotta would count as much as Caufield. We should weight per TOI for such a metric, especially since fringe players tend to be selected based on their size and weight

This is especially true for dmen as you pointed. The top 50 dmen per TOI are smaller than the height average

 

[Ozmodiar]

They played big because they played with confidence and grit. Maurice had them playing with Big D Energy.

Yes, it’s more about grit than size. But even so, it was balanced. Gritty Tkachuk / not gritty Verhaeghe , gritty Bennett/ Reinhart, Barkov / Rodrigues, …

 

[Le Barron de HF]

Good work @Le Barron de HF

I wonder if you did the same kind of research for smaller forwards, what you'd find?

Thank you for your contribution!

Can be a project for later. Next thing I'd like to tackle is impact on production for young players who had the type of injury Dach had