(Almost) all big $$$ goalies suck

[FiveTacos]

So ... don't prioritize goaltending when building a team? Trade really good guys before you have to pay them?

Interesting strategy.

I mean, tandem goaltending isn't a new idea. Minny was doing it for years with Ferndandez/Roloson -> Fernandez/Bäckstrom 20+ years ago.

The problem with a tandem of two decent to good guys is when you hit a playoff series where you face a comparable team, but they have a top guy in net who is better than either of yours. They invested in the starter and a cheap backup.

Meanwhile you have value invested in a good backup/1B sitting on your bench, not making a difference unless your 1A gets hurt or craps the bed.

Most tandem type guys who are cost effective lack a God Mode, and/or they are more likely to have one of those "off" moments. In a playoff series where margins are small, an ill timed bad goal or well timed brick wall stretch can make all the difference.

 

[Cup or Bust]

I think you need to evaluate goalies on more then just stats, you also need the ability to evaluate their skill, talent, and potential to help you win games or play better when the game is on the line, especially come playoff time. Regardless of whatever Bobrovsky's regular season stats have been he has always been an extremely talented and skilled goalie. Does that mean he is worth his contract or I would want a 10 million dollar goalie? Not necessarily but I would rather have a really talented goalie that is maybe overpaid based on their overall stats then some very average skilled goalie like Stuart Skinner for example that makes a much lower salary but the guy will often be the second best goalie on the ice in any particular game. Not saying you need a 10 million dollar goalie but I would rather have a goalie with the talent and potential to play great in big games then a very average goalie that rarely will. I would bet my money on guys like Bobrovsky, Binnington, Vasilevsky, Gibson, Swayman, Hellebuyck, Shesterkin, Oettinger etc. to come up big when needed then I would an average goalie even if their regular season stats are similar. Those are the X factors that you need to have to ability to determine though.

 

[ijuka]

...$10 million dollar goalie just won the CUP...facts...

... And wasn't worth his contract.

 

[Tawnos]

FWIW, there's really no correlation between spending a lot or a little on a goalie and winning the Cup. There have been 12 Cups awarded in the 50/50 cap split world. At the time of their contract signings, the distribution of the cap hit percentages of Cup winning goalies looks like:

0-2%: 3 (Murray x 2, Binnington)
2-4%: 1 (Hill)
4-6%: 3 (Crawford '13, Vasilevskiy '20, Kuemper)
6-8%: 0
8-10%: 3 (Quick '14, Crawford '15, Holtby)
10%+: 2 (Vasilevskiy '21, Bobrovsky)

 

[Romang67]

FWIW, there's really no correlation between spending a lot or a little on a goalie and winning the Cup. There have been 12 Cups awarded in the 50/50 cap split world. At the time of their contract signings, the distribution of the cap hit percentages of Cup winning goalies looks like:

0-2%: 3 (Murray x 2, Binnington)
2-4%: 1 (Hill)
4-6%: 3 (Crawford '13, Vasilevskiy '20, Kuemper)
6-8%: 0
8-10%: 3 (Quick '14, Crawford '15, Holtby)
10%+: 2 (Vasilevskiy '21, Bobrovsky)

And at the end of the day, this distribution is really just saying that it's great if one of your best players is young and hasn't gotten paid yet. Murray has lost his shine, but he was going to get PAID had he not gotten injured and fallen off the map. He was an exceptional goalie his last year in juniors, in the AHL, and then his first years in the NHL.

 

[VivaLasVegas]

Swayman, Vasilevsky, Shesterkin, all shitting the bed this year and/or recent playoffs. Gibson is still an anchor and Grubauer is a nightmare. Bobrovsky is meh at best, and Sorokin is underwhelming, as is non-4 Nations Bennington. Markstrom es no bueno anymore and neither is Merzlikins. The list goes on. Don't spend money on goalies. Only exception is Hellebuyck.

Merely noting that some of these goalies have some pretty average defenses in front of them, due to either quality defensive players being injured or now playing elsewhere.

It's a team sport.

The post seems like another one that is aimed more at fantasty hockey than reality.

 

[Tawnos]

And at the end of the day, this distribution is really just saying that it's great if one of your best players is young and hasn't gotten paid yet. Murray has lost his shine, but he was going to get PAID had he not gotten injured and fallen off the map. He was an exceptional goalie his last year in juniors, in the AHL, and then his first years in the NHL.

It's probably worth mentioning that, while Murray didn't get paid a lot, the Penguins were paying Fleury in the 8-10% bracket.

 

[MoneyManny]

My point is, you might want to pay a goalie big time $$$ if he is able to cover up for the bad D the rest of the team plays, otherwise, perhaps not worth the big $$$. Clearly players, in all positions, are impacted by their teammates performances, but the guys that should get paid the most are the ones that perform best regardless.

In my opinion, goalies earn their paychecks in the post season. The regular season grind might lead one to believe that the difference between a goalie or another is slim, but every year during the playoffs teams get goalied and they show us why you want a poised, confident elite goalie when it matters.

I think if Toronto had a (10m/aav) prime Carey Price level goalie instead of Nylander or Tavares they already have their cup. No player can be more clutch than a goaltender.

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

... And wasn't worth his contract.

...and Lord Stanley proves that to be false...facts...

 

[ijuka]

...and Lord Stanley proves that to be false...facts...


View attachment 983286

No, it does not. A team can win the stanley cup with a player who's not worth his contract.

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

No, it does not. A team can win the stanley cup with a player who's not worth his contract.

...cuz YOU say so...the Florida Panthers disagree...and they would be correct...

 

[LTIR Trickery]

i have no dog in this fight, as i dont care to have an opinion on it, but whats the point of dropping annonymous stats in the thread

like Who the f*** do these numbers belong to? what point are trying to prove?

you can't just leave unfinished thoughts and then say someones post is bad.

Fair point, accidentally cropped out the name, but thats Vasi this season. If thats bad, give me some bad goaltending baby!

 

[FiveTacos]

...cuz YOU say so...the Florida Panthers disagree...and they would be correct...

Well and at the end of the day, it's not as if most teams have the choice between a great goalie or a merely good one. A lot of times it's all or nothing, because a team with a lesser paid but also Cup capable goalie ain't trading him for a more expensive one.

If finding an affordable guy who can be "good enough" as a substitute were easy, then every playoff team would have one.

 

[Summer Rose]

Either way, gone are the days where an elite starter would play 65-70 (or more) games in the regular season and then ideally start every playoff game. While there might be some goaltenders in the league who could shoulder that kind of workload, coaching theory has shifted away from that. Only three goaltenders last season had 60 or more starts. Bobrovsky himself started 58 on the way to a cup with Florida.

It's almost, but not quite, entirely unlike baseball's theory of pulling the starter earlier than managers used to. Clayton Kershaw was rather notoriously pulled after 7 innings and 80 pitches despite the fact that he had a perfect game going at that point back in 2022.

 

[Bleedred]

Swayman, Vasilevsky, Shesterkin, all shitting the bed this year and/or recent playoffs. Gibson is still an anchor and Grubauer is a nightmare. Bobrovsky is meh at best, and Sorokin is underwhelming, as is non-4 Nations Bennington. Markstrom es no bueno anymore and neither is Merzlikins. The list goes on. Don't spend money on goalies. Only exception is Hellebuyck.

I agree with A LOT of this, but I'm bummed you left out the most overrated one in Oettinger.

You're wrong on Vasilevskiy and Shesterkin though. Analytically, both are having pretty good seasons. Igor wasn't gonna be a .930%-something goalie his entire career. Markstrom was also having a fine season as of his last game, but has been injured for the last 5 weeks and hasn't played since. He's getting ready to come back. Sorokin has had a pretty average season, but just average at best.

Bob has been a pretty pedestrian goalie for probably half the time he's been with Florida, at least regular season only. I think he's probably had as many meh regular seasons there as good ones, if not even more.

Gibson is having his first good season in 6 years, but he's done this before a few times and by season's end his numbers regress back to being in the toilet again. He probably won't play enough games this season for it to really happen by the end of this one, due to all the time he's missed injured and Dostal getting a lot of games.

Grubauer has been hilariously awful since getting that contract. The difference between him and Daccord the last two years behind the same team is like if it were really a retired 50-something year old goalie playing his games.

One name on a big contract that you're missing is that BUM Jarry lol.