All Purpose Trade/Roster Building Thread XII - The UFA frenzy aftermath

[LakeLivin]

There is nobody slower than Stastny.

And weren't Necas and Svech on a bit of a scoring slump while Stastny was their center? Seems like it has caught fire again since KK was inserted back onto that line.

Yes, but my point is that the Borg thinks/thought that would work. I see no reason they would find two guys who are faster to be a hindrance to them.

So is it safe to say that if you were to represent The Borg with a picture the one below might do?

 

[Borsig]

There is nobody slower than Stastny.

Behold. I give you Eric Staal, the master of coast and glide.

 

[Discipline Daddy]

Larkin would be an incredible get, but also IMO an unrealistic get. Detroit is approaching bubble-team status, lacks centers in their pipeline, and Larkin is by far the best one that they have. It would shock me if they did anything except extend him.

I've been thinking about this and to me Boston seems most the most logical destination for Larkin. They will need a center long term after Bergeron and Krejci probably move on. Larkin will cost a fortune to re-sign, but he'll be cheaper than Pastrnak. I could be wrong but I could see Larkin fitting better with them long term because he is a little cheaper and plays center.

They'd have to give up Lysell and a 1st I'd imagine. It will be really interesting to see where all the big names shake out. I think it's a 50/50 if Larkin re-ups in Detroit or finds greener pasture. If I'm him, I'm thinking "I already gave you all these years and you still don't look any more competitive now". Who knows?

 

[htdoc]

So Larkin has to want to be traded given he has control.... unless Detroit doesn't want him or makes him angry with contract offers that he feels are insulting, sounds like Larkin going nowhere

Larkin hopes to remain with Red Wings, can become free agent after season | NHL.com

All-Star center is Michigan native, leads Detroit with 43 points

www.nhl.com

 

[DaveG]

I've been thinking about this and to me Boston seems most the most logical destination for Larkin. They will need a center long term after Bergeron and Krejci probably move on. Larkin will cost a fortune to re-sign, but he'll be cheaper than Pastrnak. I could be wrong but I could see Larkin fitting better with them long term because he is a little cheaper and plays center.

They'd have to give up Lysell and a 1st I'd imagine. It will be really interesting to see where all the big names shake out. I think it's a 50/50 if Larkin re-ups in Detroit or finds greener pasture. If I'm him, I'm thinking "I already gave you all these years and you still don't look any more competitive now". Who knows?

That's why I thought they were the heavy favorites for Horvat until the trade ended up happening. Mind you I also think Larkin's a better player than Horvat by a decent margin so I'd flat out prefer to see him re-sign in Detroit at this point.

 

[CanesFanBudMan]

So Larkin has to want to be traded given he has control.... unless Detroit doesn't want him or makes him angry with contract offers that he feels are insulting, sounds like Larkin going nowhere

Larkin hopes to remain with Red Wings, can become free agent after season | NHL.com

All-Star center is Michigan native, leads Detroit with 43 points

www.nhl.com

The decision is on him but if they’re not going to come to agreement on a deal why would he not want to play in the playoffs this year?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

The decision is on him but if they’re not going to come to agreement on a deal why would he not want to play in the playoffs this year?

You never know. I said the same thing about Skinner back in 2017.

Skinner was traded with 1 year left on his deal, so essentially a long rental. He could've gone to a playoff team for 1 year then anywhere he wanted after that. I was convinced there was no way he'd go to a bottom feeder, yet he chose to go to a team that hadn't made the playoffs in ages and just finished dead last in the NHL. He had is own personal reasons.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Barbashev wont be retained by STL.

He would be a much cheaper version of a power forward for us. Domi esque. Can score, can play center, but streaky.

 

[ndp]

Barbashev wont be retained by STL.

He would be a much cheaper version of a power forward for us. Domi esque. Can score, can play center, but streaky.

Where would he slot in?

Is he good enough at face offs for Rod to play him at center full time?

Is he good enough to bump TT off the top line?

I don’t think Rod has any intention of moving Jarvis from that line even if they brought in an upgrade. If they bring in a top line sniper and TT gets bumped back down to the 4th does Aho’s production take a dip? If so how much? Would a legit top line sniper offset any dip in Aho’s and TT’s production?
@Boom Boom Apathy Mr. Numbers Man it seems like every time they’re separated both their production suffers? Does the data support that? And as much as I think Martinook has stalled out and should probably be bumped back down to the 4th, that ain’t happening either.

To me the two glaring weaknesses right now are 2nd line center and top line sniper. And the more I think about potential deadline deals, I would almost rather them do nothing than to bring in another middle six guy.

Either do the damn thing and bring in some actual game changing talent, preferably with term. Or find a stopgap #2C and a cheap vet to bolster the 3rd pair and roll with it. Is Barbashev good enough to play 2nd line center for Rod?

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Barbashev wont be retained by STL.

He would be a much cheaper version of a power forward for us. Domi esque. Can score, can play center, but streaky.

A Barbashev/Mikkola package is IMO an intriguing idea for the Canes. I would really try to use the opportunity to flex cap space a bit harder, however.

 

[CanesFanBudMan]

You never know. I said the same thing about Skinner back in 2017.

Skinner was traded with 1 year left on his deal, so essentially a long rental. He could've gone to a playoff team for 1 year then anywhere he wanted after that. I was convinced there was no way he'd go to a bottom feeder, yet he chose to go to a team that hadn't made the playoffs in ages and just finished dead last in the NHL. He had is own personal reasons.

Just speculation on my part but if he doesn’t want to go to a contender he’ll make it work with Detroit as they are the hometown team. I don’t see him going to a different team that’s not a contender

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Where would he slot in?

Is he good enough at face offs for Rod to play him at center full time?

Is he good enough to bump TT off the top line?

I don’t think Rod has any intention of moving Jarvis from that line even if they brought in an upgrade. If they bring in a top line sniper and TT gets bumped back down to the 4th does Aho’s production take a dip? If so how much? Would a legit top line sniper offset any dip in Aho’s and TT’s production?
@Boom Boom Apathy Mr. Numbers Man it seems like every time they’re separated both their production suffers? Does the data support that? And as much as I think Martinook has stalled out and should probably be bumped back down to the 4th, that ain’t happening either.

To me the two glaring weaknesses right now are 2nd line center and top line sniper. And the more I think about potential deadline deals, I would almost rather them do nothing than to bring in another middle six guy.

Either do the damn thing and bring in some actual game changing talent, preferably with term. Or find a stopgap #2C and a cheap vet to bolster the 3rd pair and roll with it. Is Barbashev good enough to play 2nd line center for Rod?

barbashev wont play C for Rod.

Going back to the SAT line needs to be a thing.
SAT
Barb-KK-Necas

Or Martinook needs to be a 4LW. Martinook has played well but he isnt able to keep up with the big boys as well. His PIMs are starting to rack up with him grabbing because a better player went by him pretty easily. His PIM per 60 rate has almost doubled from last year. His PIM / 60 rate is the highest as a Cane and he is playing his hardest defensive assignment.

I dont buy the do nothing thing. Doing nothing is 2nd worse to making a bad trade that really bites later (the Florida deals)

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

barbashev wont play C for Rod.

Going back to the SAT line needs to be a thing.
SAT
Barb-KK-Necas

Or Martinook needs to be a 4LW. Martinook has played well but he isnt able to keep up with the big boys as well. His PIMs are starting to rack up with him grabbing because a better player went by him pretty easily. His PIM per 60 rate has almost doubled from last year.

Barbashev would likely play center, but probably 4C under Rod. To me, if the Canes are OK with KK at 2C after recent signs of improvement there, I'm going to guess that they will make a larger splash on the wing.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Barbashev would likely play center, but probably 4C under Rod.

his less than 40 percent FO tells me he wouldnt be anything more than an emergency center.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Just speculation on my part but if he doesn’t want to go to a contender he’ll make it work with Detroit as they are the hometown team. I don’t see him going to a different team that’s not a contender

Oh, I agree with you that it makes the most sense, just that sometimes what seems obvious doesn't work out that way. Like Gaudreau going to CLB for example.

 

[ndp]

barbashev wont play C for Rod.

Going back to the SAT line needs to be a thing.
SAT
Barb-KK-Necas

Or Martinook needs to be a 4LW. Martinook has played well but he isnt able to keep up with the big boys as well. His PIMs are starting to rack up with him grabbing because a better player went by him pretty easily. His PIM per 60 rate has almost doubled from last year. His PIM / 60 rate is the highest as a Cane and he is playing his hardest defensive assignment.

I dont buy the do nothing thing. Doing nothing is 2nd worse to making a bad trade that really bites later (the Florida deals)

I too think it’s time to revisit the SAT line. Have they played any significant amount of time together this season?

I just don’t see Rod taking Jarvis out of the top six. Maybe Rod will prove me wrong, or maybe Jarvis will hit his stride after the break and start putting up 1st line numbers. Is it just me or has Jarvis stopped using his teammates as much? Seems like he’s driving the net, or shooting every time he touches the puck these past few games?

SAT
Jarvis-KK-Nacho
Barb-Staal-Fast
Marty-Step-Stas

I just don’t see Rod making those adjustments especially with them winning like they are.
I will say when facing better competition Martinook looks like he’s hanging on by a thread sometimes. But then again it’s not like he was the most graceful player to begin with.

 

[WreckingCrew]

Barbs is realistically a 30 pt 3W...he's not the 60 point player he randomly was last year. He's Stastny replacement perhaps, but not someone we should spend much on...he just doesn't move the needle enough for us, 10-15G scorer jack of all trades master of none sort

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Barbs is realistically a 30 pt 3W...he's not the 60 point player he randomly was last year. He's Stastny replacement perhaps, but not someone we should spend much on...he just doesn't move the needle enough for us, 10-15G scorer jack of all trades master of none sort

Yea I wouldn’t spend much of anything on him. But as a tryout before offering a deal.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I wonder if Toews is going to be underrated by the trade market this year, especially considering the NMC. I know that he isn't the fastest player at the moment, but I could see Brind'Amour loving a Toews pickup, especially if a 1 year extension is a realistic possibility. Take a look at these faceoff statistics: NHL Face Off Win Percentage Leaders 2022 2023 Over 75 Face Offs Taken Top 100 | StatMuse

 

[Canes]

I wonder if Toews is going to be underrated by the trade market this year, especially considering the NMC. I know that he isn't the fastest player at the moment, but I could see Brind'Amour loving a Toews pickup, especially if a 1 year extension is a realistic possibility. Take a look at these faceoff statistics: NHL Face Off Win Percentage Leaders 2022 2023 Over 75 Face Offs Taken Top 100 | StatMuse

I doubt he'll be underrated in the trade market. I'm sure plenty of teams are checking up on his availability. The issue is his salary and his NMC. Those aren't exactly minor hurdles. Not only does the acquiring team have to be able to fit his cap hit somehow, they have to be a place where he wants to go. And since he already has 3 Cups, he can and most likely will be picky.

 

[Chrispy]

I doubt he'll be underrated in the trade market. I'm sure plenty of teams are checking up on his availability. The issue is his salary and his NMC. Those aren't exactly minor hurdles. Not only does the acquiring team have to be able to fit his cap hit somehow, they have to be a place where he wants to go. And since he already has 3 Cups, he can and most likely will be picky.

Which is why Carolina, who could take on Toews with less retention and is a contender with former teammates who can express it’s a good place to play, might be able to get him cheaper.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I don’t think Rod has any intention of moving Jarvis from that line even if they brought in an upgrade. If they bring in a top line sniper and TT gets bumped back down to the 4th does Aho’s production take a dip? If so how much? Would a legit top line sniper offset any dip in Aho’s and TT’s production?
@Boom Boom Apathy Mr. Numbers Man it seems like every time they’re separated both their production suffers? Does the data support that?

Aho is scoring at a rate of 1.38 G/60 and 2.45 P/60 5v5 (in total).
- With TT, he is scoring at a rate of 1.92 G/60 and 2.57 P/60

TT is scoring at a rate of 0 G/60 and 1.4 P/60.
- With Aho, he is scoring at a rate of 0 G/60 and 1.92 P/60

Not looking into any advanced stats, the data says that the two of them are producing better together than apart.

One Caveat. Aho plays with Jarvis and TT far more than most other forwards so when you are looking at scoring rates, numbers can get skewed pretty quickly by small sample sizes. Necas has a decent amount of time with Aho and Aho's numbers aren't as good as they are with TT. Svech is next, but only 75 minutes and Aho scores at 3.98 P/60 with Svech, but sample size isn't big enough. Same with Noesen (67 min. and 3.56 P/60).

And as much as I think Martinook has stalled out and should probably be bumped back down to the 4th, that ain’t happening either.

The last 20 games, Martinook has scored at a rate of 2.01 P/60 5v5, which is higher than all but KK, Staal, Noesen and Aho. That line has been doing well against the toughest competition night in and night out. Analytics say keep them together. This graph shows just how much more difficult the assignments that line gets vs. every other Canes forward, and how well they are doing at it (Blue = better).

I realize that Staal is a big reason for that line succeeding, but not everyone can fit on it. Secondly, I really don't want some of our more offensive players on that line. I'd rather have them getting more ozone starts against weaker competition, like they are. Don't try to fit a square peg in a round hole.

 

[DaveG]

Oh, I agree with you that it makes the most sense, just that sometimes what seems obvious doesn't work out that way. Like Gaudreau going to CLB for example.

Yeah but Gaudreau to Columbus only happened because Philly wouldn't make roster/cap room for him.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Yeah but Gaudreau to Columbus only happened because Philly wouldn't make roster/cap room for him.

Sure, and Skinner only went to Buffalo "supposedly" to be closer to home. My point is that while we can speculate that a player will do X or Y, there are other factors that we, as fans, don't alway see that change where they end up. Skinner and Gaudreau are classic examples. After the fact, it makes perfect sense, but prior to the move happening, it was not really on anyone's radar. That's all I'm saying.

 

[hblueridgegal]

Which is why Carolina, who could take on Toews with less retention and is a contender with former teammates who can express it’s a good place to play, might be able to get him cheaper.

Skill wise, fine, but he seems so serious for the Canes. I know the human element of performance and chemistry isn’t really valued here over stats but I am trying to picture who he’d buddy up with? Maybe Aho? As he comes across as the one with the most eye on the prize attitude of anyone currently on the team to me.

I have trouble envisioning 3x Stanley Cup champions doing the storm surge. I guess seeing will be believing.