Porter Stoutheart
Seen Stamkos?
- Jun 14, 2017
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I would entertain the idea, but...Hear me out with this scenario...
Admittedly, for this hypothetical trade to go through, the stars will have to perfectly align. Poile will have to have a strong indication that Duchene will sign in Nashville, thereby invoking the need to immediately re-allocate Subban's $9M salary. Additionally, since the Preds would then be rolling with Duchene/Johansen/Turris at center, Bonino would become a trade candidate, presenting another opportunity for cap relief. (Personally, I think Ottawa makes the most sense for Bonino, since they need to reach the cap floor, and are short on both veterans and centers. Bonino checks a lot of boxes there.)
If all of the above comes to pass, would you guys be open to LW/RW Miles Wood + 2020 top-5 protected 1st + NSH 2019 2nd for Subban?
Wood is an incredibly versatile forward that would be a seamless fit in Nashville. He has speed to burn (I'd argue he has top-5 straight-line speed in the league), and plays a fearless "bull in a china shop" style that perfectly matches the "Smashville" mantra. He played almost exclusively LW last year, but is fully capable of playing RW (his hat trick in 17-18 actually came on the right side). Frankly, I think he's the player you thought you were acquiring (or wanted to acquire) when you traded for Wayne Simmonds at the deadline... except Wood is 23 and is signed for 3 more years at $2.75M AAV. He has sniffed 20 goals before (19G in 17-18, playing ~12 minutes a night); I could see him breaking out in Nashville, especially if he's given PP time at the front of the net.
The picks may be used to either draft to supplement your lineup with cheap ELCs, or used as trade currency at the deadline. If Poile goes into the 2020 deadline with two 1st's (very unlikely and unusual situation for a contender), Nashville is automatically a part of the conversation for the highest-profile rentals on the market. Even if no additions are made (highly unlikely), you're rolling with:
Forsberg - Duchene - Arvidsson
Tolvanen - Johansen - Granlund
Wood/Jarnkrok - Turris - Smith/Watson
Jarnkrok/Wood - Gaudreau - Watson/Smith
Josi - Ellis
Ekholm - Fabbro
Hamhuis - Weber/Irwin
Again, a lot has to go right for this trade to even be feasible. But, hypothetically, what say you?
I would also have some reservations. What exactly are the terms of the Duchene deal? I don't mind adding him as co-#1C with Johansen - ideally at the same $$$ as Johansen, but grudgingly accepting a small markup due to the whole UFA circus environment. Still, I wouldn't want it to be one of those ultra-extravagant groundbreaking UFA mega-contracts. If he got $9M per with no bells and whistles attached, that's ok. But every $ and every bell and every whistle over that would start to make me question the wisdom of signing him. I firmly believe he's an upgrade on Turris. But it's still just an incremental upgrade.
How much do we want to downgrade our D to make that change? If Duchene takes Turris' spot, and Turris is the one moved to make the cap space to sign Duchene, then the upgrade is pure profit. If we move Subban to accommodate this instead, then we've potentially lost a more important player than even Duchene. I know Subban had a terrible season overall, but the minutes and style he plays can add up to a much greater relative impact on the ice than Duchene can - IF of course Subban is still capable of playing at his levels of previous seasons.
I guess somebody has to convince me that Subban is permanently on a decline before I accept the premise that moving him to make room for Duchene improves our team. It's not an implausible premise. It could be true. Just I don't have enough hard evidence to truly believe in it at my fingertips.
I don't have an overall problem with the valuation - I actually like Wood, despite that he got a bit of flak from Devils fans lately, I was a fan from his earlier seasons and like the idea of another bigger faster winger on our bottom lines. Draft picks are nice enough. If you added a serviceable RD on a short-term deal to plug the gap while Fabbro grows, then I'd say the value is about there. Just it is contingent on those two key factors:
1) We can't find a way to move Turris instead, and
2) We know something that strongly suggests Subban can no longer be a Norris-calibre defenseman in the league.
I wouldn't mind trying something like this instead though:
LW/RW Miles Wood + 2020 top-5 protected 1st + NSH 2019 2nd + serviceable RD
for
Ellis + Jarnkrok
... I could cheerfully replace Jarnkrok's more cerebral spot in the lineup with Wood's more rambunctious style, and while I don't know if Subban can or can't return to his previous top form or not, I am 100% sure that Ellis - despite being pretty good overall - is not ever going to be nominated for the Norris. I like our mix on D better moving Ellis than moving Subban. And we only need about $6M in cap space cleared to sign Duchene.