Prospect Info: All-Purpose 2024 Draft Thread & Celebrini discussion (also the 14th pick and whatever else is draft related)

[coooldude]

Great content from Wheeler in the Athletic. Asked a ton of experts for top and bottom d-men in the top 6. Almost everyone had Yakemchuk (60%?) or Dickinson (20%) last. He also asked how close is your 7th ranked guy (mostly Jiricek, Solberg, and Emery) was to those six, and it was probably 60/40 against having a 7th guy in the convo. Jiricek most commonly came up with the caveat of (if not for the injury). Several who had only seen the college guys or the OHL guys and didn't stack rank all.

Lot of love for Sennecke from both players and scouts. Players had Catton as player (other than Celebrini) that impressed the most. Celebrini had 23/88 votes, Catton 12, Sennecke 8, and Eiserman 5. You could only pick non-teammates that you had played against.

It's crazy how little consensus there is after Celebrini. Levshunov, Celebrini, and Demidov seem to be the favorites, but they have some knocks as well.

Good summary. I'd add that it was definitely 50/50 when mentioning Solberg whether he was liked or "too rich for the first half of round 1" / "if you're drafting him for the WC performance he'll struggle to meet that". Of note, most of these teams also sound like later-round teams. Jiricek had a few positives but def a few people not getting it or worried about his injury... same Emery, a couple scouts mentioned "more of an athlete than a player" or "we like him but maybe too rich for us now." Even scouts who liked Lev said his comp is John Carlson and who didn't like Yak said his comp is Evan Bouchard, so we're still talking pretty close to each other imho. Also one of the scouts said "we'll take any of them" even though he put Lev first and Dickinson last.

All bets are off 11 days out!

 

[Gecklund]

Good summary. I'd add that it was definitely 50/50 when mentioning Solberg whether he was liked or "too rich for the first half of round 1" / "if you're drafting him for the WC performance he'll struggle to meet that". Of note, most of these teams also sound like later-round teams. Jiricek had a few positives but def a few people not getting it or worried about his injury... same Emery, a couple scouts mentioned "more of an athlete than a player" or "we like him but maybe too rich for us now." Even scouts who liked Lev said his comp is John Carlson and who didn't like Yak said his comp is Evan Bouchard, so we're still talking pretty close to each other imho. Also one of the scouts said "we'll take any of them" even though he put Lev first and Dickinson last.

All bets are off 11 days out!

Insane that it’s only 11 days out.

 

[STL Shark]

Works for me. I know people are leary of late risers, but when you watch his videos he has outrageous hands and he's plugged in on the offensive end. He has the highest upside of anyone the Shark will have an oppounity to draft , imo. Of course he could be taken sooner and it's all moot.

Guess that is where I differ on my thoughts at 14. I don't want to draft for upside or boom/bust style guys. We have Celebrini and Smith to go with Eklund as pretty safe bets to be top 6 forwards, Beyond that, Musty looks to be a fair bet as well. I am most worried about getting as close to a guaranteed NHLer at 14 and 33 than I am about getting the next "steal" that turns out to be Erik Karlsson drafted at 15th or Anze Kopitar at 11th.

It's why I am very high on MBN because I am thinking through building the team rather than just acquire as many high upside guys as possible. Admittedly could be premature to count our chickens with the Celebrini/Smith/Eklund group, but if those don't pan out then what happens at 14th probably won't matter for much anyway.

Would sacrifice some upside if it meant a higher percentage chance at a higher probability NHL player that will be coming through the system on an ELC when it's time to give big raises to our core group.

 

[coooldude]

Would sacrifice some upside if it meant a higher percentage chance at a higher probability NHL player that will be coming through the system on an ELC when it's time to give big raises to our core group.

I think I remember someone shared an analysis of Dallas's draft approach recently, that has been successful in the past ~6-8 years (or whatever the window is), and basically they target guys with very projectable size, style, and skill, even if the upside isn't there (which is a bit counter to everyone's mantra about trying to hit the home run). This makes more intuitive sense to me in the back half of 1 and all rounds after. Therefore 14 is kind of on the edge of this (where MBN, or one of the other projectable F/D will be), and 33+ is definitely. Why I'd be fine with MBN but less OK with Eiserman who is a home run swing.

 

[mogambomoroo]

I think I remember someone shared an analysis of Dallas's draft approach recently, that has been successful in the past ~6-8 years (or whatever the window is), and basically they target guys with very projectable size, style, and skill, even if the upside isn't there (which is a bit counter to everyone's mantra about trying to hit the home run). This makes more intuitive sense to me in the back half of 1 and all rounds after. Therefore 14 is kind of on the edge of this (where MBN, or one of the other projectable F/D will be), and 33+ is definitely. Why I'd be fine with MBN but less OK with Eiserman who is a home run swing.

I think just following what Dallas and Carolina have been doing in the end of the 1st round and 2nd round is a pretty good recipe for success. They seem to be very accurate in that area.

 

[LadyStanley]

Check out this Podcast: San Jose Hockey Now Podcast #51: Thrun Talks Warsofsky’s Coaching & Development Style San Jose Hockey Now Podcast #51: Thrun Talks Warsofsky’s Coaching & Development Style

Sheng adds 6 more names to those interviewed, including Tij Iginla.

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

Sounds similar to what John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan do.

 

[STL Shark]

Sounds similar to what John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan do.

Without Celebrini, I think you have to keep shooting for that super high upside guy. Now that you seem to have your main cogs in your top 6 forward locked in, I think you start to focus on supplementing them with guys that you think are high probability NHL forwards that can play complimentary pieces in a top 9 (thinking Bystedt, Edstrom, Zetterlund, etc. types).

Obviously the defense has holes that need to be filled still with top of the lineup types of players, but I also don't know that you're getting one of those in Stolberg at 14th (where we already have lots of 4-6 types on defense that shoot left handed). That is where next year's pick plays into things where we're still looking at a top 5 pick most likely to nab a top pairing D-Man.

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

Without Celebrini, I think you have to keep shooting for that super high upside guy. Now that you seem to have your main cogs in your top 6 forward locked in, I think you start to focus on supplementing them with guys that you think are high probability NHL forwards that can play complimentary pieces in a top 9 (thinking Bystedt, Edstrom, Zetterlund, etc. types).

Obviously the defense has holes that need to be filled still with top of the lineup types of players, but I also don't know that you're getting one of those in Stolberg at 14th (where we already have lots of 4-6 types on defense that shoot left handed). That is where next year's pick plays into things where we're still looking at a top 5 pick most likely to nab a top pairing D-Man.

Agreed. Also wanted to add this quote from Morehouse that I found interesting. Reminds me of the 9ers taking Pearsall. It doesn’t have to make sense to everyone else, the decision makers know what they’re doing.

“The idea of the best player available at that for the general consensus might not be what ours is,” Morehouse added. “So that’s where you get the ‘Why did they do that for?’ Well, if you think about it, we’re trying to piece together a team. We’re not necessarily thinking of that value, that player. “

With all of that being said, prepare yourselves for WHO!?!?

 

[coooldude]

With all of that being said, prepare yourselves for WHO!?!?

My bets for the "WHO!?!?" pick: Chernyshov, Hage, Hemming (I hope not...), Emery.

Still think it's most likely we go with Helenius (although I think more likely he goes 10-13), MBN, Solberg/Jiricek, or the miracle Yakemchuk drop.

 

[dmcccdmn]

So McKenzie has Sennecke at the 14th spot in his final rankings.

Bob McKenzie's NHL Draft Ranking: An 'unpredictable ride' after Macklin Celebrini | TSN

Ten out of 10 NHL club team scouts surveyed in the past week by TSN have Macklin Celebrini as the undisputed No. 1 draft prospect. Beyond Celebrini, though? Buckle up.

www.tsn.ca

Wow, I'm falling in love with Sennecke. He's Demidov elite offensively. Guy was 5'10" 2 years ago and now he's 6'2"-6'3", playing a small-player game in a big-body frame. I've seen Demidov, Celebrini and Sennecke listed as the top-3 puck-handlers in the draft. He would be one of the best RW's in Sharks history. I like him so much that I'm worried he'll go much much higher. Should/would Grier trade into top 10 to get him?

Sennecke highlights

 

[STL Shark]

Wow, I'm falling in love with Sennecke. He's Demidov elite offensively. Guy was 5'10" 2 years ago and now he's 6'2"-6'3", playing a small-player game in a big-body frame. I've seen Demidov, Celebrini and Sennecke listed as the top-3 puck-handlers in the draft. He would be one of the best RW's in Sharks history. I like him so much that I'm worried he'll go much much higher. Should/would Grier trade into top 10 to get him?

Sennecke highlights

Negative on trading up. Would love to have him fall to 14, but not trading up for a winger.

 

[LadyStanley]

From SAN live pre-announcement of Warsofsky....

SAN will be live from SAP Center for draft. Remenda will be in town.

 

[LadyStanley]

Becher on SAN indicates that more than 12k tickets are out for draft party. Apparently the "record" is like 5k, so the Sharks hope to break that.

 

[matt trick]

Without Celebrini, I think you have to keep shooting for that super high upside guy. Now that you seem to have your main cogs in your top 6 forward locked in, I think you start to focus on supplementing them with guys that you think are high probability NHL forwards that can play complimentary pieces in a top 9 (thinking Bystedt, Edstrom, Zetterlund, etc. types).

Obviously the defense has holes that need to be filled still with top of the lineup types of players, but I also don't know that you're getting one of those in Stolberg at 14th (where we already have lots of 4-6 types on defense that shoot left handed). That is where next year's pick plays into things where we're still looking at a top 5 pick most likely to nab a top pairing D-Man.

#1 centers are almost always drafted in the top 5 (Barkov, Draisaitl, Petterson, Eichel, Reinhart, Stuzle, Malkin, Sedin). With extreme frequency it's in the top 1 (Lemieux, Sakic, Lindross, Matthews, Stamkos, Crosby, McDavid, McKinnon, Hughes, Tavares, Thornton, Lecavalier, Sundin, Hischer, Bedard, Lafleur). The best counterpoints are Bergeron, Point, Getzlaf, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Trottier, Forsberg (6th) or even our own Hertl, Pavs, and Couture.

#1 D-man however, get drafted all over the place:

Number 1: Ekblad, Power, Dahlin
Top 5: Hedman, Hughes, Makar, Seider, Pietro, Doughty, Heiskanen, Chara
Top 10: Dobson, Bouchard, Seabrook
Mid-late 1st: McAvoy, Karlsson, Burns, Carlson, Morrise,
2nd: Josi, Weber, Faber, Vlasic, Subban, Lidstrom, Keith
3rd or later: Fox, Slavin

Celebrini is the hardest piece to acquire, but damn if we don't still need another home run. Luckily, the #1 dman doesn't rely on being the worst team in the league and winning back to back coinflips (or worse) about 50% of the time.

An interesting, fun, and chaotic scenario is imagine San Jose drafts a forward at 14 and wins next years lottery resulting in a core of Muk and 9 forwards as our most valuable assets. With Hagens, Celebrini, Smith, Eklund, Musty, Nygard (or whoever)....there's going to start to be questions of how do we maximize the teams chances with general shit on defense. You can always look to move one of those forwards, but it's tricky. Hopefully we'll just get our Josi, Keith, and Lidstrom at 33, 42, and 85 this year. Job done!

 

[Zarzh]

#1 centers are almost always drafted in the top 5 (Barkov, Draisaitl, Petterson, Eichel, Reinhart, Stuzle, Malkin, Sedin). With extreme frequency it's in the top 1 (Lemieux, Sakic, Lindross, Matthews, Stamkos, Crosby, McDavid, McKinnon, Hughes, Tavares, Thornton, Lecavalier, Sundin, Hischer, Bedard, Lafleur). The best counterpoints are Bergeron, Point, Getzlaf, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Trottier, Forsberg (6th) or even our own Hertl, Pavs, and Couture.

#1 D-man however, get drafted all over the place:

Number 1: Ekblad, Power, Dahlin
Top 5: Hedman, Hughes, Makar, Seider, Pietro, Doughty, Heiskanen, Chara
Top 10: Dobson, Bouchard, Seabrook
Mid-late 1st: McAvoy, Karlsson, Burns, Carlson, Morrise,
2nd: Josi, Weber, Faber, Vlasic, Subban, Lidstrom, Keith
3rd or later: Fox, Slavin

Celebrini is the hardest piece to acquire, but damn if we don't still need another home run. Luckily, the #1 dman doesn't rely on being the worst team in the league and winning back to back coinflips (or worse) about 50% of the time.

An interesting, fun, and chaotic scenario is imagine San Jose drafts a forward at 14 and wins next years lottery resulting in a core of Muk and 9 forwards as our most valuable assets. With Hagens, Celebrini, Smith, Eklund, Musty, Nygard (or whoever)....there's going to start to be questions of how do we maximize the teams chances with general shit on defense. You can always look to move one of those forwards, but it's tricky. Hopefully we'll just get our Josi, Keith, and Lidstrom at 33, 42, and 85 this year. Job done!

They really don't, especially the amount of replicable defensemen who get drafted late is tiny, you will get occasional fallers or players whose production is undervalued.

It's like hoping someone who didn't score nearly as much will turn out to be the next Aho or Hintz because they also played in the Liiga.

 

[Juxtaposer]

#1 centers are almost always drafted in the top 5 (Barkov, Draisaitl, Petterson, Eichel, Reinhart, Stuzle, Malkin, Sedin). With extreme frequency it's in the top 1 (Lemieux, Sakic, Lindross, Matthews, Stamkos, Crosby, McDavid, McKinnon, Hughes, Tavares, Thornton, Lecavalier, Sundin, Hischer, Bedard, Lafleur). The best counterpoints are Bergeron, Point, Getzlaf, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Trottier, Forsberg (6th) or even our own Hertl, Pavs, and Couture.

#1 D-man however, get drafted all over the place:

Number 1: Ekblad, Power, Dahlin
Top 5: Hedman, Hughes, Makar, Seider, Pietro, Doughty, Heiskanen, Chara
Top 10: Dobson, Bouchard, Seabrook
Mid-late 1st: McAvoy, Karlsson, Burns, Carlson, Morrise,
2nd: Josi, Weber, Faber, Vlasic, Subban, Lidstrom, Keith
3rd or later: Fox, Slavin

Celebrini is the hardest piece to acquire, but damn if we don't still need another home run. Luckily, the #1 dman doesn't rely on being the worst team in the league and winning back to back coinflips (or worse) about 50% of the time.

An interesting, fun, and chaotic scenario is imagine San Jose drafts a forward at 14 and wins next years lottery resulting in a core of Muk and 9 forwards as our most valuable assets. With Hagens, Celebrini, Smith, Eklund, Musty, Nygard (or whoever)....there's going to start to be questions of how do we maximize the teams chances with general shit on defense. You can always look to move one of those forwards, but it's tricky. Hopefully we'll just get our Josi, Keith, and Lidstrom at 33, 42, and 85 this year. Job done!

This feels like a post I wrote ten years ago.

They really don't, especially the amount of replicable defensemen who get drafted late is tiny, you will get occasional fallers or players whose production is undervalued.

It's like hoping someone who didn't score nearly as much will turn out to be the next Aho or Hintz because they also played in the Liiga.

Obviously it’s easier to get better defensemen earlier in the draft but the overall point that he made (that I completely agree with) is that it’s basically impossible to get a true #1C outside of the top-5 of the draft and it’s definitely possible, if not easy, to get a #1D outside of the top-5. So if we don’t get one in our tanking window, that doesn’t mean we’re totally screwed.

What does “replicable” even mean here?

 

[vortexy]

Bob Mckenzie announced his final draft rankings will be released next week

https://x.com/i/web/status/1802734937033830423

 

[Zarzh]

This feels like a post I wrote ten years ago.


Obviously it’s easier to get better defensemen earlier in the draft but the overall point that he made (that I completely agree with) is that it’s basically impossible to get a true #1C outside of the top-5 of the draft and it’s definitely possible, if not easy, to get a #1D outside of the top-5. So if we don’t get one in our tanking window, that doesn’t mean we’re totally screwed.

What does “replicable” even mean here?

Well Lidstrom for example, may as well say draft Fedorov. It is a near impossible situation to happen today because people just didn't watch the players. The closest you can get is saying someone like Solberg's scoring is greatly undervalued and he has 1D potential.

Most of the guys weren't unknown quantities or really late bloomers, they were just greatly undervalued and hit a bit higher on their potential. True late bloomers are incredibly rare especially in recent years. John Carlson and Roman Josi for example both put up ridiculous stats in their draft years, and someone like Subban had great stats too,

 

[MasterMatt25]

 

[Jargon]

I really am getting fond of Grier.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Well Lidstrom for example, may as well say draft Fedorov. It is a near impossible situation to happen today because people just didn't watch the players. The closest you can get is saying someone like Solberg's scoring is greatly undervalued and he has 1D potential.

Most of the guys weren't unknown quantities or really late bloomers, they were just greatly undervalued and hit a bit higher on their potential. True late bloomers are incredibly rare especially in recent years. John Carlson and Roman Josi for example both put up ridiculous stats in their draft years, and someone like Subban had great stats too,

John Carlson put up 43 points in 59 USHL games in his draft year. Josi came from a league that had never produced an NHL star. Subban put up 56 points in 68 games in the OHL. Absolutely none of these stat lines screamed future star, never mind future top pairing D.

Sure, Lidstrom probably wasn’t a relevant example here, but the rest absolutely were.

I feel like Mike Grier might like Macklin Celebrini a little.

 

[hohosaregood]

That's a BU guy excited about drafting a BU kid. You can just tell with these college old boys

 

[Zarzh]

John Carlson put up 43 points in 59 USHL games in his draft year. Josi came from a league that had never produced an NHL star. Subban put up 56 points in 68 games in the OHL. Absolutely none of these stat lines screamed future star, never mind future top pairing D.

Sure, Lidstrom probably wasn’t a relevant example here, but the rest absolutely were.


I feel like Mike Grier might like Macklin Celebrini a little.

Subban led all draft eligible CHL defensemen in scoring. Carlson was 3rd all time in USHL draft eligible defenseman scoring and was 6"3. Josi played a bit in a men's league at 16 and put up points at 17. Keith destroyed the BCHL at 17 but was just mid in college at 18.

You're almost never getting a guy who is just a late bloomer or project.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Subban led all draft eligible CHL defensemen in scoring. Carlson was 3rd all time in USHL draft eligible defenseman scoring and was 6"3. Josi played a bit in a men's league at 16 and put up points at 17. Keith destroyed the BCHL at 17 but was just mid in college at 18.

You're almost never getting a guy who is just a late bloomer or project.

You are incredibly missing the point, which that it is extremely possible to draft a #1D outside of the top-10 of the NHL draft. I don’t care if these guys were late bloomers or just undervalued in their draft years, the point is that they were not top-10 picks and they became #1D.