All Elite Wrestling #1: AEW announced TV deal with TNT, partners with B/R Live

[Alex Jones]

Honest take:

AEW has the potential to be a very good promotion in terms of the actual wrestling, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a significant WCW style talent raid of WWE over the next couple of years.

That said, there has never ever been evidence of the idea that there is enough money in the market for there to be two profitable national wrestling promotions. WCW hemorrhaged cash, and that was at a time when the market for wrestling was larger than it is now.

Unless there is a ton of wrestling money out there that we simply don't know about, the route to profitability for AEW is probably just to become the national wrestling promotion and have WWE go the route of WCW. Maybe twenty five years ago WWE was vulnerable enough for this to happen, but right now that company is so valuable and has so much cash sitting around that they will almost surely win any war between them and AEW, if by nothing else than attrition.

For me, at best Khan is naive about the market. At worst he's getting worked. Maybe his guys have crunched the numbers and they think that this can work, but to me this seems like throwing away a lot of money on hopes and dreams.

 

[xtra]

One of the big changes though from previous times is that there is such a demand for content right now. Everywhere you turn a media company is gobbling up content. Heck the wwe has a crazy billion dollar contract for both raw and smack down.

AEW has to get to a point where they can reasonably draw 1.0-1.3 and they can turn a profit in a few years. Media companies will get them on tv if they can draw that consistently

 

[Unholy Diver]

One of the big changes though from previous times is that there is such a demand for content right now. Everywhere you turn a media company is gobbling up content. Heck the wwe has a crazy billion dollar contract for both raw and smack down.

AEW has to get to a point where they can reasonably draw 1.0-1.3 and they can turn a profit in a few years. Media companies will get them on tv if they can draw that consistently

That is the big thing there, will Khan and Co. be willing to bite the bullet and take the losses long enough to get there?

I was a WCW guy and became a much more casual fan when they went under, they failed even with years and years of opportunity to build their brand, I hope that AEW works out, but I feel like everyone is getting their hopes up a little too much.

 

[xtra]

I would expect them to understand that there’s gonna be losses for a few years. This has to be a 5-8 year play at the minimum

 

[GKJ]

I would expect them to understand that there’s gonna be losses for a few years. This has to be a 5-8 year play at the minimum

I don't know about that anymore.

 

[Shoalzie]

Honest take:

AEW has the potential to be a very good promotion in terms of the actual wrestling, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a significant WCW style talent raid of WWE over the next couple of years.

That said, there has never ever been evidence of the idea that there is enough money in the market for there to be two profitable national wrestling promotions. WCW hemorrhaged cash, and that was at a time when the market for wrestling was larger than it is now.

Unless there is a ton of wrestling money out there that we simply don't know about, the route to profitability for AEW is probably just to become the national wrestling promotion and have WWE go the route of WCW. Maybe twenty five years ago WWE was vulnerable enough for this to happen, but right now that company is so valuable and has so much cash sitting around that they will almost surely win any war between them and AEW, if by nothing else than attrition.

For me, at best Khan is naive about the market. At worst he's getting worked. Maybe his guys have crunched the numbers and they think that this can work, but to me this seems like throwing away a lot of money on hopes and dreams.

Well said.

I think there's a better chance of AEW succeeding in a world with WWE compared to the new (spring) football leagues succeeding when the NFL and college football rule that landscape. I think some people want run their own version of something popular over-estimates people's appetite for what they're offering. For some people, the WWE is all they need in terms of wrestling because it's familiar and it's established. It might not be the best kind of wrestling but it's a proven brand. They're basically Starbucks. I don't think they make the best coffee but their brand is so strong and is everywhere that they're synonymous with their industry. Some brands are so big that they can't be overtaken but I think there's a chance for someone to rise up and at least cut into their share of the pie.

If AEW gets a good cable deal, how many viewers will it take for them "succeed"? Over a million? Atleast 500,000? Do they think they're going to compete with the WWE or do they think they can fit into the landscape along with WWE? Are they going to be satisfied with being the 2nd best?

 

[Cor]

I think there's plenty of fans, that should AEW get on an accessible channel, that would jumpship.

The Audience isn't happy with the WWE product right now. There's a door there for AEW to come in, make a big splash, and steal some viewers. There are a good amount of people who are wrestling fans in N/A, but ignore the WWE. AEW has a chance to bring in those viewers as well.

At the end of the day, wrestling fans have been wanting competition for a while, and this has the serious potential to be. So, those fans who wanted competition, should be supporting AEW, if for no other reason because it might change how WWE does things.

But if AEW doesn't get the audience support, they're doomed, and no wrestling fan can talk about needing competition for the WWE.

 

[M.C.G. 31]

They’ll get the hardcore base for sure, so if they’re on a prominent channel, maybe around 800,000-1.5m in the USA? Just a large estimate of the hardcore base.

Casuals are going to be less inclined to watch unless Jericho is one of their top guys since he’s a name everyone knows.

I still think they affect NJPW and their expansion more than disrupt the WWE though, and honestly if I were an Indy talent and WWE offered me a large sum of money ($150,000+) to work just in NXT for a bit I might be more inclined to sign that deal than an AEW deal worth $200,000-$300,000.

 

[Kimi]

I think it's important to remember one fo the biggest lessons form the death of WCW.

There were millions of WCW fans who watched WCW right up until the end. Once it died, they didn't switch to WWF. They just stopped watching wrestling because their wrestling was over. They never came back.

It's going to be the same with WWE and AEW. People who have stopped watching WWE are not looking for more wrestling, they're just going to wait for WWE to be better and they'll watch it again. They are not wrestling fans, just WWE fans. AEW isn't going to get any of them to jump to their show.



Even on this board, we've got people who refuse to watch even NXT. Which is an excellent show, top tier productions, easily accessible, and in a style which is familiar to WWE fans. It's better than the main roster is every single way, but people are far more interested in bitching and moaning in the Raw and Smackdown threads every week. They pick being miserable with the main roster shows over enjoying NXT (and 205).


NJPW is the best promotion in the world right now. It's easy to watch with English commentary, has better wrestling, booking, stories, and promos. But only a handful of us watch it with any regularity.

MLW is on YouTube every week after their episode airs on TV. The shows are easy watches and have good matches. I'm not even sure if anyone here watches it, and you really can't get more accessible than YouTube that everyone has access to.

RoH is also free to watch on their website. CMLL is in Spanish but you can watch on YouTube, and AAA is on Twitch.

UK promotions Progress, RevPro, Attack, ICW, and FCP are not promotions that people watch. All are English and very easy to find. OOT in Ireland too. WXW does some English too, even though they are a German company. But you have to pay for them, so no one will watch them (no matter how cheap they are). EVOLVE, PWG, Defy in the US are also options. Stardom, Shimmer, Shine, EVE are good women's promotions. All of these are very much worth watching and easily enjoyable.


We're a hardcore group here, even if we are the bizarre off-casts of an ice hockey forum that live in a quasi-private off-topic former-page2 board, and we don't really branch out from the main roster WWE shows. I'd be legitimately surprised if many of us actually watch AEW whenever it starts up.

 

[xtra]

Easy to watch is relative, you need to pay for wwe subscription to watch nxt, need to pay to watch NJPW so a lot of fans aren’t going to do that.

The key to AEW succeeding is going to be getting a major tv deal and that’s going to be tough but if they do that they could challenge because a lot of the wwe fans that they have now will at least look at it. Get some big names that are draws to show up aka; Jericho, Goldberg etc and you can introduce them to the omegas and young bucks and hangman pages of the world.

 

[Disclose]

I’m not gonna pretend that I pay for the wwe network or NJPW world. Yet I Get to see them live if I want to... so yes easy access.

 

[Kimi]

Easy to watch is relative, you need to pay for wwe subscription to watch nxt, need to pay to watch NJPW so a lot of fans aren’t going to do that.

NJPW is on american TV.

People pay for the Network and watch PPVs. They then choose not to watch NXT for zero added cost. (I know a bunch of you just find a pirate stream, but it's trivial to also find NXT in those exact same places.)

And I gave other examples of free shows that people don't watch. And that's ignoring the ton of free content that promotions that are behind a paywalls upload to YouTube.

There are options without costs, and very very few are interested. There being another option isn't going to magically draw people to it. They'll follow what happens, but they won't watch.

 

[ColePens]

To @Alex Jones point and @Kimi with the counter point, here is just my quick take.

I feel the honest to god only way to make this work and sustainable long-term is with a connection to NJPW and ROH (and many others). NJPW won't budge, but AEW should be what New Japan wanted out of the western move. They can build a network and charge 14.99 for ALL shows from NJPW, AEW, ROH, and other small companies they buy, too. Then they can establish the long-term tv deal and that is the honest to god only way I feel they can EVER cut into WWE's share.

I'm trying to think 5-10 years down the road, how a businessman would think. I think it's easy money 1-3 years. But sustainability and longevity is built on a plan. The best plan I can think of is the evolution of indy to mainstream in the sense of combining AEW, NJPW, ROH, and a few others. It still leaves plenty of indy places for people to work, it builds another big-time wrestling format, and it gives a long-term plan.


But realistically my point is worthless. I just feel too many networks and too many programs will over-saturate the market and it will leave the indy scene badly in 3-5 years. Great for the next 1-3, but bad after 5 if these groups all want to do their own network/tv/etc. AEW should be trying to incorporate all of those in one network style subscription. I think that is where the big market share/money is. Then it builds the TV format, too.

 

[Kimi]

I don't think another subscription platform would change anything at all. It's just more of the same and the status quo remains. There are already some platforms that have multiple promotions on them, and others have tried to do it and failed as there was extremely little interest (Remember the mess with FloSlam and EVOLVE?)


The reality is that AEW is a legit big money investment, and anything less than TV on a good station is going to be a classed as a failure. If they put their tens of millions in, and end up with a streaming service, then it's a complete waste. I could do the same with a standard small business loan. It's go big or go home.

It's worth remembering that there ARE talks with TV companies right now. They've been in progress since All In was seen as such a success. The big money investments doesn't even exists without that fact. So a streaming anything would be a massive step back.


As for working with NJPW and RoH. They are both direct competition, and also both smaller than what AEW should be aiming to be. Another RoH doesn't change anything, and NJPW is already trying to be NJPW in america. If AEW supplants that expansion or not it doesn't really change anything about the landscape.

 

[M.C.G. 31]

another streaming platform is just going to turn into what's happening with the big studios as more streaming companies try to take Netflix's share -- it leads to more people just going through illegal means to get the product they want and everyone loses out on money.

 

[Allie Kitsune]

NJPW is on american TV.

People pay for the Network and watch PPVs. They then choose not to watch NXT for zero added cost. (I know a bunch of you just find a pirate stream, but it's trivial to also find NXT in those exact same places.)

And I gave other examples of free shows that people don't watch. And that's ignoring the ton of free content that promotions that are behind a paywalls upload to YouTube.

There are options without costs, and very very few are interested. There being another option isn't going to magically draw people to it. They'll follow what happens, but they won't watch.

For what it's worth, I watch MLW.

And sort of wonder if they're going to end up being the biggest victim of AEW.

 

[Disclose]

SoCal Uncensored sign with AEW per Ryan Satin.

they're expected to be at the Rally tomorrow in jacksonville.

 

[Kimi]

SoCal Uncensored sign with AEW per Ryan Satin.

they're expected to be at the Rally tomorrow in jacksonville.

(Today in Jacksonville, they signed last night. )

 

[Disclose]

oops.
im actually glad is today. i can catch it huhuh.

 

[Kakko]

I'm interested to see the turnout. They're essentially next to SmackDown before the show, so there's potential. But what even is the event? Standing around in a parking lot, with a bunch of wrestling fans, to presumably hear a press conference sounds like something you'd have to pay me to attend.

 

[Disclose]

rumor from the twitter; PAC has been spotted in Jacksonville.

Justin Roberts too apparently.
and now MJF aka Maxwell Jacob Friedman from MLW (who lets you work other companies)

 

[Kimi]

rumor from the twitter; PAC has been spotted in Jacksonville.

!!

Now I'm interested!

 

[Disclose]

more rumors from the post above: Goldberg, Steve Blackman, David Arquette, Jessica Havoc have all been "spotted"

 

[GKJ]

I'll mark for Steve Blackman

 

[Dr Pepper]

Damn, gotta have a pretty keen eye to "spot" Steve Blackman, unless he looks strikingly similar to his wrestling days.