Value of: Alexis Lafreniere to the Blackhawks

[UnSandvich]

Just so I have this right, his value is being underestimated because he plays with lesser players like Panarin and Trocheck?

Guess I should also ignore his +/- of -13, second worst on the team and only better than Mika.

+/- is a stupid statistic and one not worth considering in depth because of how things affect it or don't. 5v5 Goal differential is much more reliable to look at. In particular, Lafreniere's +/- is deceiving because at 5v5 he was only a net -3. The -13 is driven largely by the Rangers impotency at 6v5 last season, where Lafreniere was a -9.

 

[n8]

None of the players you mentioned were already on high cap hit long term contracts though...

That is a fair observation. I was pointing that a player with his accomplishments have garnered much more than just a 2nd that one poster suggested as a fair price for Laf. When you consider AAV, the valuation is a lot harder because it really depends on the individual GM and their cap situation. If a team really wants a player, the cap number is less of an issue.

 

[DJN21]

That is a fair observation. I was pointing that a player with his accomplishments have garnered much more than just a 2nd that one poster suggested as a fair price for Laf. When you consider AAV, the valuation is a lot harder because it really depends on the individual GM and their cap situation. If a team really wants a player, the cap number is less of an issue.

I appreciated your post because it made me think about it and you laid it out well.

If you are a team are you trading for say Jeff Skinner at full value last year? I.E good for 50ish points give or take all at EVS with a long term 7 mill+ contract just because meh we have cap and its going up? No you're not. Granted I get Laf is much younger and has unlocked "potential" but I could argue Skinner has a bonified track record and not question marks.

Skinner give or take how you wanna argue it matches Laf's production was bought out because you don;t pay middling point producers that kinda money.

I'd say given his contract Laf is a risk to anyone aquiring him in that the Rangers are just toxic and misusing him etc etc as I've seen in here. The other option is....he is what he is, a good but not great player on a high impact contract that will be sunk just like Skinner was....

 

[TheNewEra]

Oh I think there’s a world where he still ends up producing 70-80 points per season. But i don’t think it’s a certainty.

And he’s making 7M for several years, so there’s risk.

with how much the cap has gone up wouldnt the contract now be the norm?

coronato got a 6.5 per year extension for similar production and is a year younger. If you want to be really technical you could say Laf is about half a million overpaid based off last season only. So honestly i think the risk is really limited/non existent

if the rangers take perron/can find someone to take on perron i would want to see what ottawa could trade for him. Im not giving elite value for him though.

 

[The Real JT]

+/- is a stupid statistic and one not worth considering in depth because of how things affect it or don't. 5v5 Goal differential is much more reliable to look at. In particular, Lafreniere's +/- is deceiving because at 5v5 he was only a net -3. The -13 is driven largely by the Rangers impotency at 6v5 last season, where Lafreniere was a -9.

While I agree that the plus minus statistic can be misleading, it is more often right than wrong.

More importantly, you conveniently skipped over the fact that he is playing with a future Hall of Famer in Panarin and a very solid center in Trocheck. Laf is clearly the weak link on that line yet his fans like to say how much better he would be if he just got a chance on the power play.

Let me pose an alternative question here, how much worse would he be if he played with less skilled linemates?

One final point. I’m not saying he sucks and has no value but at this point in time he’s an overpaid, unspectacular middle six winger. Nothing to be ashamed of, that is unless you are a former number one overall pick.

 

[UnSandvich]

While I agree that the plus minus statistic can be misleading, it is more often right than wrong.

More importantly, you conveniently skipped over the fact that he is playing with a future Hall of Famer in Panarin and a very solid center in Trocheck. Laf is clearly the weak link on that line yet his fans like to say how much better he would be if he just got a chance on the power play.

Let me pose an alternative question here, how much worse would he be if he played with less skilled linemates?

One final point. I’m not saying he sucks and has no value but at this point in time he’s an overpaid, unspectacular middle six winger. Nothing to be ashamed of, that is unless you are a former number one overall pick.

Nah, he was making 2.325 this year. He was an unspectacular middle-six winger on a pretty decent contract. NEXT year, he'll be an overpaid unspectacular middle-six wing if he doesn't look more like last year's form.

 

[GrumpyKoala]

Seem unfair... What did he do?

 

[n8]

I appreciated your post because it made me think about it and you laid it out well.

If you are a team are you trading for say Jeff Skinner at full value last year? I.E good for 50ish points give or take all at EVS with a long term 7 mill+ contract just because meh we have cap and its going up? No you're not. Granted I get Laf is much younger and has unlocked "potential" but I could argue Skinner has a bonified track record and not question marks.

Skinner give or take how you wanna argue it matches Laf's production was bought out because you don;t pay middling point producers that kinda money.

I'd say given his contract Laf is a risk to anyone aquiring him in that the Rangers are just toxic and misusing him etc etc as I've seen in here. The other option is....he is what he is, a good but not great player on a high impact contract that will be sunk just like Skinner was....

Skinner is an interesting comparison. I think there are two biases (probably more) at play in the general Laf discussion. One being a 1OA bias. Like the expectation of his draft position merits a certain outcome and people can't assess him without attaching being 1OA. Second is a bias due to his slow start. For over a decade, Skinner would not top his rookie production of 63 points. Some players start slow and build momentum. Some peak right away and hit their ceiling early.

Prior to last season, I would meme that Laf was on a hockey stick curve of year-to-year improvement. Going from 21 points in his first season to 31, then 39, 57, his next few years would see him produce at 75, 99, 123 points. But I guess that's the third bias: the Texas Sharpshooter fallacy when you selectively choose data points that support a pre-existing conclusion. That is HFB all day, all night.

I could point out how Brett Howden blossomed in Vegas after the Rangers mishandled him but that's leaving out all of the prospects they've traded away that didn't pan out like Lias Andersson or Kravtsov. I think it is valid to say that our coaching staff relies too much on our PP1 unit and Lafreniere has not had the PP chances he'd have with other franchises. Last season, he had exceptional 5v5 stats. I think this season was an anomaly. All the Goodrow Trouba fallout +Kreider trade memo did a nut job on everyone. I forget which player said it (Igor?) on breakup day, "something just broke" on the team. We had a decent October but things just slowly fell apart.

 

[One Winged Angel]

To be fair, the team didn't quit around him, he was part of the quit. He was a passenger far too many tomes this season.

And still had more 5v5 points than…

Mikko Rantanen
Dylan Strome
Bryan Rust
Logan Cooley
Bo Horvat
Wyatt Johnston
Matt Boldy
Juraj Slafkovsky
Auston Matthews
Alex Ovechkin
Pavel Buchnevich
Quinton Byfield
Tim Stützle
Martin Necas
Sam Reinhart
Anze Kopitar
Macklin Celebrini
Marco Rossi
JT Miller
Connor Bedard
Matthew Knies
Vincent Trocheck
Roope Hintz
Alex Barkov
Dylan Larkin
Nico Hischier

 

[One Winged Angel]

NY would be selling him at very low value if they tried to move him right now.

Not necessarily, a hockey trade is possible.

Fan valuations of players are almost never accurate. This site (all across social media too, to be fair) screamed that guys like Scott Gomez, Jacob Trouba and so on had “negative value,” but the returns were far better than the fans could even fathom.

 

[The Real JT]

Laf had 17 goals playing with Panarin and Trocheck.

In 2010, John Tavares centered a line with P.A. Parenteau and Matt Moulson. Parenteau had 20 goals and Moulson had 30.

People need to stop making excuses for Laf. He’s a middle six, nothing special player, who had a career season in his contract year and is now overpaid.

 

[Jersey Fresh]

Highlighting 5v5 production is always hilarious to me. If he was good you wouldn’t need to find nit pick stats.

I don’t think he sucks, but I think he’s produced like a good third liner at this point. He could still end up a 60 point wing. But zero chance I’m trading the third overall pick for that.

Laf is confusing to me, I really thought he was going to be a superstar.

He's also been stapled to Panarin the last few years. These 5v5 points aren't happening in a vacuum, they're attached to a top ~5 point producer (top 10 EV) over the last three seasons.

 

[Sinbad]

To NYR:

-Kevin Korchinski
-Colton Dach

To Chicago:

-Alexis Lafreniere

No thanks, Hawks decline.

 

[miscs75]

Laf had 17 goals playing with Panarin and Trocheck.

In 2010, John Tavares centered a line with P.A. Parenteau and Matt Moulson. Parenteau had 20 goals and Moulson had 30.

People need to stop making excuses for Laf. He’s a middle six, nothing special player, who had a career season in his contract year and is now overpaid.

30 goal while getting in the way of Tavares as he came down the ice with the puck.

 

[10YearsAfter]

No thanks, Hawks decline.

speak for yourself. I'd do it (and its logical as long as NYR see KK as somewhat ready)

 

[Crow]

To NYR:

-Kevin Korchinski
-Colton Dach

To Chicago:

-Alexis Lafreniere

Kyle from Chicago says no

 

[Guyute]

Laf will make people look foolish once he gets legitimate PP time. He’s been getting 30 seconds after PP1 fails, which doesn’t mean Jack squat because that’s 30 seconds of Trouba or Miller fishing the puck from behind Igor and failing to enter the zone.

 

[LaffyTaffy13]

No way they get 3OA for Laf though.

Chicago would trade #3 OA in a nanosecond for laff. Rangers would never accept it though

 

[nbwingsfan]

While wildly overpaid for, Tanner Jeannot only had a 40 point season and got Cal Foote, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th.
Hagel only posted a 24 point season, was pacing 40 the season he got traded and got traded with two 4ths for Raddysh, Katchouk, and two 1st. But GMJB overpays you say? Even Sam Bennett who never even topped 40 and was 5 seasons removed from that previous career high got more than a 2nd. Even Lias Andersson got a 2nd. The value is closer to 1st + minor asset or 2nd + very promising prospect that your system doesn't have room for a la Drouin + 6th for Sergachev + 2nd.

The main point is you are underestimating the value of young player with 45 points last year and a career high of 57. Strip the name. Strip the draft position. A 23 year old with 102 point in the last 2 seasons, a player who immediately be #2 in hits on Chicago last season.

Our entire team was a head case last season. He started off the season with 16 points in the first 20 games before the wheels fell off on everyone. Rangers are better off keeping him. Let's see what Sullivan can do.

Were any of these guys making $7m +?

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Chicago would trade #3 OA in a nanosecond for laff. Rangers would never accept it though

lol are you actually being serious?

 

[wetcoast]

They don't need to make a hockey trade. They are a fairly popular free agent destination. If Chicago put something like the 3rd overall on the table, that frees up 7.45M in cap space. They almost certainly would find a player or players in free agency to use that cap space on. That would be part of the return.

The Black Hawks would be foolish to trade the 3rd overall for.him IMO.

I'm just not a fan of his.

 

[Mrfenn92]

The Black Hawks would be foolish to trade the 3rd overall for.him IMO.

I'm just not a fan of his.

Agreed as a hawks fan. But I understand New York not being interested unless blown away.

 

[Hattrick Kane]

Laf will make people look foolish once he gets legitimate PP time. He’s been getting 30 seconds after PP1 fails, which doesn’t mean Jack squat because that’s 30 seconds of Trouba or Miller fishing the puck from behind Igor and failing to enter the zone.

When is that happening? Do you know who Mike Sullivan is? He is going to play crappy vets in every situation possible with no adjustments.

Laf is not getting PP1 time this year.

 

[Guyute]

When is that happening? Do you know who Mike Sullivan is? He is going to play crappy vets in every situation possible with no adjustments.

Laf is not getting PP1 time this year.

Next season. One of Kreider, Zibanejad, or Panarin will go this summer.

 

[LaffyTaffy13]

lol are you actually being serious?

Yes, they’d trade the pick before drury even got to the end of the sentence. The rangers would never trade him for #3 OA though