Stutzle is lights out, but this is a really dumb thing to say about a bunch of 19 year olds.
2010 Rookie scoring race played out like this:
See where Hall, Marchand, and Seguin were relative to the rest of the scoring leaders:
View attachment 400304
Writing Tyler Seguin off at 19 would have been absolutely foolish.
Just like writing off Lafreniere is now.
I'm not writing off Lafreniere. My point was that they weren't all that far off (IMO) coming into the draft, and seeing how much Stutzle has matured physically since COVID started, and how that has translated into improvements in his on ice performance (most notably, his shot and his strength on the puck), I would very easily have taken him over Lafreniere in a re-draft.
I bolded the areas where I think Stutzle has made up significant ground on Lafreniere since March 2020:
Skating - Stutzle
Puck carrying - Stutzle
Shooting - Stutzle. Was Lafreniere before the draft, but would take Stutzle's shooting arsenal now. Both have heavy, accurate shots, but I feel like Stutzle gets his away much faster.
Playmaking - Tie. Lafreniere better off cycle and below the goal line, Stutzle better off rush / high slot rotation.
Puck protection - Tie. Was Lafreniere before the draft, but Stutzle has made some huge strides here.
Forechecking - Stutzle
Physicality - Tie. Was Lafreniere before draft but again Stutzle's development here has been incredible.
Hockey IQ - Lafreniere, but close. I still like his feel for the game more, but Stutzle is no slouch in this category.
Motor - Stutzle. He is always moving his feet and is relentless on pucks. Lafreniere seems content to allow himself to be bodied off the puck, and will just stop moving his feet. Didn't see him do this as much in junior, so this is one of the key areas where I think he's fallen off.
I still think Lafreniere has the potential to be a very good player - I have always said he reminds me a bit of a more skilled Landeskog. But based on what I have seen from Stutzle, I don't see a way Lafreniere ever catches him. Stutzle will probably be better than Landeskog by the end of this season. So for me, there is no reason to believe that Lafreniere will close the gap.
Also - Seguin had 4g 8p in his first 18 games despite only averaging 12:50 a night. He finished with only 1 goal in his last 19 games.
Hall had 3g 8p in his first 18 games.
Marchand 2g 7p in his first 18 games.