Player Discussion Alexis Lafrenière

[TGWL]

 

[noncents]

yeah laf is a real bummer

 

[NickyFotiu]

The Sharks suck worse than we do, but Celebrini and Smith stand out considerably. Poised to be franchise flag bearers. Laf is just another player on this team that goes invisible for long stretches of games. You hear Cuylle's name a lot more when it comes to players making an impact for the team, despite the woes. Hell, Byfield reached a career high in goals, is 2 points away from matching his season high last year in points, and isn't a defensive hole when he's on the ice as a +17. He only has 6 PP points, so what he's doing he's doing at even strength as well. In either case, whether a team is falling apart or playoff bound, there can be standouts.

Guys that play the right way will have an easier time standing out when others do not. I still have hope for Laf. I don't view this season as a failure for him as long as he is honest with himself about it and comes back next year 100% determined to take significant steps forward.

 

[TheTakedown]

With Laviolette making the decisions, are you sure about that? As @80shockeywasbuns pointed out, Kreider is on PP1 with 0 primary assists this year. Are they making the best decisions for the team or are they placating aging veterans?

It's common with most retread coaches as they do their best to make as few changes as possible so that they can use plausible deniability as a cop out to say why they aren't getting performance out of their players ..

Unfortunately, it's a significant disadvantage with Laviolette, who has managed to misuse a roster more than Alain Vigneault ever could dream of, which is absolutely wild to think about, let alone witness in real time for 75 games...

 

[mas0764]

The Sharks suck worse than we do, but Celebrini and Smith stand out considerably. Poised to be franchise flag bearers. Laf is just another player on this team that goes invisible for long stretches of games. You hear Cuylle's name a lot more when it comes to players making an impact for the team, despite the woes. Hell, Byfield reached a career high in goals, is 2 points away from matching his season high last year in points, and isn't a defensive hole when he's on the ice as a +17. He only has 6 PP points, so what he's doing he's doing at even strength as well. In either case, whether a team is falling apart or playoff bound, there can be standouts.

So maybe Laf isn’t Celebrini. I was responding to the fact that he accumulated a large chunk of his points in the first 19 games. Something happened to the entire team after that point. It might explain the downturn. If Laf isn’t a “franchise” player then that’s water under the bridge but it would be nice if he can produce 5v5 like a first line player. Which he’s shown glimpses of the ability to do.

 

[LokiDog]

Laf can still be a low-middle end first line forward with time. There’s no chance there is a franchise player or even bonafide all-star in there at this point, but he still controls his destiny to a large extent. He can be a 70, maybe even one day 80 point forward. He also can definitely just be a 55 point guy. It’s up to him. The organization is no longer an excuse at this stage of his career. He has five full NHL seasons under his belt and will start next season 24 years old. He is rich. He has resources. He has seen what teammates and opponents do to prepare.

He can sacrifice some of ONE of his summers (and let’s be so f***ing for real, I’ve been in better shape than 90% of the players on this team have ever been while working 12 hour shifts and having none of their resources; it isn’t a full time job, especially when you don’t have another full time job) and hire a strength coach, a skating coach, a nutritionist and chef, work hard, spend tons of time on the ice working on the specific skills he now knows HIS game leads to him relying on the most and make a massive leap in his career. Or he can go sip Aperol Spritz on the Amalfi Coast with 21 year old models every off season and be the next Jason Zucker - which is fine for him (assuming he loves titties and Aperol), but ass for us from an asset and return on investment perspective.

The organization doesn’t have to force this on him or prescribe his off season training to him. At this point he’s a grown man who makes millions per year and he can make his own decisions. You can still spend your entire summer back in your home town with your friends and family. You can even enjoy dozens of cookouts and throw back some brewskis a few nights a week. You can spend a weekend or two out on your boys’ boats fishing and day drinking and you can even take a week to spend the entire 7 days lounging on a beach with models. You can do all of that and still skate 5 days a week, hit the gym, eat 80% clean, focus on specific things you know will help your game (ie: it felt like 5x per game I was catching a pass on my backhand, quickly shifting to my forehand and taking a snapshot on the go from the mid-right side circle so I’m going to run hundreds of reps doing that as fast and smooth as I can, hitting the net hard and accurately). You absolutely can do all of that. What you can’t do is booze it up on the fishing boat 5x a week, live on cheeseburgers and donuts, lift weights 3x per week, go for a 20 minute jog per day and not start skating until late August. Not if you want to be a different player next year.

It is ENTIRELY dependent upon Laf at this stage. If I can type this message there’s about 2 dozen people in his life who are capable of telling him this to his face and at least one who has to care about him enough to do so.

 

[NickyFotiu]

So maybe Laf isn’t Celebrini. I was responding to the fact that he accumulated a large chunk of his points in the first 19 games. Something happened to the entire team after that point. It might explain the downturn. If Laf isn’t a “franchise” player then that’s water under the bridge but it would be nice if he can produce 5v5 like a first line player. Which he’s shown glimpses of the ability to do.

Was he that far in 5 on 5 points this season? I think Bread was pretty high on the leaders list.

 

[leetch99]

I'd sit a few guys the last two games in hoping to maybe motivate them for the next season... LOL maybe have them do the warm up....and then scratch them for a scrub . Kreider and Laf would be at the top of my list .

 

[LokiDog]

Was he that far in 5 on 5 points this season? I think Bread was pretty high on the leaders list.

Bread was 10th in even strength scoring (I didn’t look deeper into 5v5, 4v4, 3v3, etc)

Laf and Celebrini both have the same number of EV points. Celebrini missed 12 games and is 18 years old on the worst team in the NHL.

Which is to say, Celebrini is definitely a vastly superior prospect, yes, but Laf’s 5v5 production was around 2nd line level. By raw numbers it’s probably in the top 96 forwards, so someone will argue it’s first line level, but most people with a brain understands that isn’t actually how hockey works. Still, he produces like an average top six forward at 5v5. The problem is he was our #1 OA pick and this was his 5th full season, so getting an average top six player out of that is a pretty poor outcome by most standards.

 

[NickyFotiu]

Bread was 10th.

Laf and Celebrini both have the same number of EV points. Celebrini missed 12 games and is 18 years old on the worst team in the NHL.

Which is to say, Celebrini is definitely a vastly superior prospect, yes, but Laf’s 5v5 production was around 2nd line level. By raw numbers it’s probably in the top 96 forwards, so someone will argue it’s first line level, but most people with a brain understands that isn’t actually how hockey works. Still, he produces like an average top six forward at 5v5. The problem is he was our #1 OA pick and this was his 5th full season, so getting an average top six player out of that is a pretty poor outcome by most standards.

Thanks for looking it all up. For us to be anything as a team in the future we definitely need Laf to be closer to a number 1 overall type player soon.

 

[SA16]

Was he that far in 5 on 5 points this season? I think Bread was pretty high on the leaders list.

Panarin has the 4th most 5v5 points of anyone this season behind only Pastrnak, Kucherov, and randomly Brandon Hagel

 

[TGWL]

Even strength and 5 on 5 are different.

	Even Strength Rank
Panarin	9th - Tied with Crosby
Lafreniere	78th

If you want to do points per 60, it changes things, but you have to determine where to set the filter on the minimum of games. I used 50 games.

	5 on 5 Rank	5 on 5 p/60 Rank
Panarin	4th	10th
Lafreniere	42nd	76th

Lafreniere only finishes that high in the 5 on 5 p/60 category because of the 1st 19 games. Otherwise it's closer to 150, or much more favorable if he somewhat kept up that production

 

[McRanger92]

Laf's numbers wouldve looked a lot better if he wasnt wildly out of shape and loafing around the last 4 months of the season. Time to grow up and earn the contract. It's also time for the next coach to put him on the PP with JT Gabe Fox and Cuylle.

 

[Takeahnase]

Here's the real issue with laffy, What we see right now is most likely what he's going to be with this organization and in this environment based on the entitlement culture that he basically grew up in with the rangers. He is part of the issue now and the problem is that nobody's going to want to move them out of here because if he goes to the right organization with an embedded culture he's most likely going to bounce back and find his game. I couldn't care less how many points he got this year because he wasn't that negative with all the other lacking parts to his game that affected the whole team. It's really difficult seeing this with him when three of the next four players picked after him would all go before him in a redraft but the reality is the reality. If he's going to consistently act like he's not doing anything wrong and he's not part of the problem then you need to get his ass out of here before he becomes the next cancer that starts infecting anybody else that you bring into this organization. This was the guy that everybody around here wanted the captaincy held for and it people rioted about giving it to Trouba. He's been exposed here as a bit of an immature clown and right now this organization does not have the pieces in it to pull him back, and somehow they're going to have to be able to establish that culture again but if this guy is seen as the representative of the next wave of core then it's actually going to be harder to fix things around here. The real representative of the next wave of the core is the guy wearing 50...

The problem with Laf is he moves his feet as much as you utilize paragraph breaks.

 

[bhamill]

The Sharks suck worse than we do, but Celebrini and Smith stand out considerably. Poised to be franchise flag bearers. Laf is just another player on this team that goes invisible for long stretches of games. You hear Cuylle's name a lot more when it comes to players making an impact for the team, despite the woes. Hell, Byfield reached a career high in goals, is 2 points away from matching his season high last year in points, and isn't a defensive hole when he's on the ice as a +17. He only has 6 PP points, so what he's doing he's doing at even strength as well. In either case, whether a team is falling apart or playoff bound, there can be standouts.

You are literally saying that Byfield is a “standout” while scoring barely more, 48 pts to 41, at EV than “just another guy” Laf (in a season where we ALL agree he has disappointed), while getting almost 10% more ATOI per game on a team that didn’t collapse like NYR… he may or may not match his high of last year… and despite Byfield being much bigger he plays a far less physical game… this doesn’t seem like a consistent standard to me.

 

[bhamill]

Bread was 10th in even strength scoring (I didn’t look deeper into 5v5, 4v4, 3v3, etc)

Laf and Celebrini both have the same number of EV points. Celebrini missed 12 games and is 18 years old on the worst team in the NHL.

Which is to say, Celebrini is definitely a vastly superior prospect, yes, but Laf’s 5v5 production was around 2nd line level. By raw numbers it’s probably in the top 96 forwards, so someone will argue it’s first line level, but most people with a brain understands that isn’t actually how hockey works. Still, he produces like an average top six forward at 5v5. The problem is he was our #1 OA pick and this was his 5th full season, so getting an average top six player out of that is a pretty poor outcome by most standards.

Laf is 42nd in 5v5 scoring so yes that’s first line level. Like it or not. And this year was a backstep.
You are still arguing whether he’s playing well for a 1OA (we all agree he is NOT, there is no argument) when most of us are talking about how he is playing as a 23 year old NHLer.
Also we can’t just arbitrarily amputate the quarter of the season where he was playing very well and say it doesn’t count… any more than we can just decide that his worst 19 game stretch didn’t count…

 

[noncents]

Laf is 42nd in 5v5 scoring so yes that’s first line level. Like it or not. And this year was a backstep.
You are still arguing whether he’s playing well for a 1OA (we all agree he is NOT, there is no argument) when most of us are talking about how he is playing as a 23 year old NHLer.
Also we can’t just arbitrarily amputate the quarter of the season where he was playing very well and say it doesn’t count… any more than we can just decide that his worst 19 game stretch didn’t count…

it's less about "amputating" the sample to achieve statistical narrative. it's about inconsistency, or consistent poor play.

put it this way: he was a guy playing like shit for a lot longer of the season than he was a guy playing like the shit. it's not intellectually dishonest to evaluate production trends within the nice clean sample of a single season. in fact, that nuance is exactly what matters.

 

[bhamill]

it's less about "amputating" the sample to achieve statistical narrative. it's about inconsistency, or consistent poor play.

put it this way: he was a guy playing like shit for a lot longer of the season than he was a guy playing like the shit. it's not intellectually dishonest to evaluate production trends within the nice clean sample of a single season. in fact, that nuance is exactly what matters.

The caveat here is that his play didn’t nosedive in a vacuum. The team collapsed. And no it’s not intellectually dishonest to evaluate a downturn in production/overall play, but is is to ignore the greater trend over the past two seasons which was upward. Last season and in the playoffs (where he and Troch were probably our top players), and then the first quarter of this season he was on a clear trend upward, then the whole team shit the bed. So for me, to turn around and say the last 3/4 of a season is the REAL Laf is not intellectually honest at all. If the team was doing well, but he nosedived that would be more of an indicator, but Laf’s production decline was not anywhere near as severe in percentage as Kreider, Zib or Panarin’s, and slightly less bad than Trocheck’s… the guy whose production has declined by the smallest percentage is not the one dragging everyone else down…
Again, I hope I’m not coming off as satisfied with Laf’s season/play… I’M NOT. I just don’t see it as a “sky is falling” situation in his case. I’m less worried about him rebounding than the other four, or even Fox. I’m hoping Fox’s knee issues will not be an ongoing issue next season still, especially with a nice long off season, but who knows?

 

[noncents]

The caveat here is that his play didn’t nosedive in a vacuum. The team collapsed. And no it’s not intellectually dishonest to evaluate a downturn in production/overall play, but is is to ignore the greater trend over the past two seasons which was upward. Last season and in the playoffs (where he and Troch were probably our top players), and then the first quarter of this season he was on a clear trend upward, then the whole team shit the bed. So for me, to turn around and say the last 3/4 of a season is the REAL Laf is not intellectually honest at all. If the team was doing well, but he nosedived that would be more of an indicator, but Laf’s production decline was not anywhere near as severe in percentage as Kreider, Zib or Panarin’s, and slightly less bad than Trocheck’s… the guy whose production has declined by the smallest percentage is not the one dragging everyone else down…
Again, I hope I’m not coming off as satisfied with Laf’s season/play… I’M NOT. I just don’t see it as a “sky is falling” situation in his case. I’m less worried about him rebounding than the other four, or even Fox. I’m hoping Fox’s knee issues will not be an ongoing issue next season still, especially with a nice long off season, but who knows?

I'm not interested in comparing the downturn in his production to that of the other big names. I'm interested in comparing the quality of his play to that of past years.

Production is production. He just sucked. He's not a leader. He doesn't f***ing skate. If someone's injured and plays poorly, you can point to that and hope they rebound.

Laf just decided not to try. That's as damning as age-related decline. Maybe moreso.

 

[McRanger92]

I'm not interested in comparing the downturn in his production to that of the other big names. I'm interested in comparing the quality of his play to that of past years.

Production is production. He just sucked. He's not a leader. He doesn't f***ing skate. If someone's injured and plays poorly, you can point to that and hope they rebound.

Laf just decided not to try. That's as damning as age-related decline. Maybe moreso.

Lafreniere played like a petulant child this year. He learned that from the veterans who sulked all season. He needs to grow a pair but he's still young enough that he can change.

 

[bhamill]

I'm not interested in comparing the downturn in his production to that of the other big names. I'm interested in comparing the quality of his play to that of past years.

Production is production. He just sucked. He's not a leader. He doesn't f***ing skate. If someone's injured and plays poorly, you can point to that and hope they rebound.

Laf just decided not to try. That's as damning as age-related decline. Maybe moreso.

Well I’m very glad you are a mind reader, and you are entitled to look at Laf’s season as if it occurred in a vacuum if that’s what you want to do. But you are not entitled to the expectation that everyone else ignores tne overall trend.
Sure, I believe Fox is still hampered. I don’t know what to believe about Kreider anymore, but Pan, Zib and Troch did not have down seasons due to injury… The team collapsed. If you do not want to consider that the 23 year old was affected by that it’s not my problem. You not being interested in the overall picture doesn’t change the overall picture one little bit.

 

[ReddestRum]

You are literally saying that Byfield is a “standout” while scoring barely more, 48 pts to 41, at EV than “just another guy” Laf (in a season where we ALL agree he has disappointed), while getting almost 10% more ATOI per game on a team that didn’t collapse like NYR… he may or may not match his high of last year… and despite Byfield being much bigger he plays a far less physical game… this doesn’t seem like a consistent standard to me.

I literally said Celebrini and Smith were standouts.

I added Byfield because I know what was said about his play in earlier Laf threads.

 

[bhamill]

I literally said Celebrini and Smith were standouts.

I added Byfield because I know what was said about his play in earlier Laf threads.

You talked about standouts on bad teams after referencing all three of them…
If you say you didn’t mean that for Byfield I take you at your word, bud. All good.

 

[UnSandvich]

Well I’m very glad you are a mind reader, and you are entitled to look at Laf’s season as if it occurred in a vacuum if that’s what you want to do. But you are not entitled to the expectation that everyone else ignores tne overall trend.
Sure, I believe Fox is still hampered. I don’t know what to believe about Kreider anymore, but Pan, Zib and Troch did not have down seasons due to injury… The team collapsed. If you do not want to consider that the 23 year old was affected by that it’s not my problem. You not being interested in the overall picture doesn’t change the overall picture one little bit.

Didn't Trocheck have a broken hand? Not to debate your larger point.

 

[PANARIN BREAD FAN]

byfield has been the king's best player since feb. he's been averaging 1 ppg.