Confirmed with Link: Alex Newhook for 31st, 37th and Fairbrother

[CrAzYNiNe]

They traded the picks because the floor is the likely pay off if they hit on one of those picks and the ceiling was higher.

The thing now is even if Newhook finds 2nd line upside he's unlikely to play there. We will draft a forward with one of our two picks in this draft. We acquired Laine. We drafted Demidov and Hage. There's only so many top 6 spots. His speed is an element we needed and so I'm sure they won't lose any sleep if they have Newhook to move between L1 and 3 depending on where he fits and supplies the right complement to the players on that line.

Depending on how the season progresses, I no longer feel that Newhook shouldn't be a player that can dealt. He was never untouchable, I just felt that it was just a too soon to give up on him.

Would you believe Newhook to be a young player? I don't anymore: Given this is his 4th NHL season, the average age of NHL player careers being roughly 5 NHL seasons or 410 games, I would argue he is now in the middle of his career.

I feel the Habs thought he could be a mid to top 2nd line player and what we got, arguable, is a very good 3rd line player. I am officially ready (not pushing for it at this very moment, but he will eventually be replaced) to give up on him, whenever that moment comes.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Even if he hits his ceiling as 60-point speedy weakling along the boards, we just have too much of that in our system at the moment.

A speedy 60 point depth player is fantastic to have no matter what’s in your system.

PREACH!!!!!!!!!

60 point speedy depth player is at the high end of what you can expect in what we traded away. You make that trade all day long.

 

[CrAzYNiNe]

A speedy 60 point depth player is fantastic to have no matter what’s in your system.


60 point speedy depth player is at the high end of what you can expect in what we traded away. You make that trade all day long.

You still have faith he can be a 60 point player? Consistently 60 point player in his prime or one season with 60 and the rest are in the 30-45 range?

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

You still have faith he can be a 60 point player?

Sure.

The whole team is crap right now. He showed he’s capable of much better play. He was red hot before getting hurt last year.

Consistently 60 point player in his prime or one season with 60 and the rest are in the 30-45 range?

I think he’s a complimentary player who can play on the second line but not lead it. If he’s with the right linemates I think he’s a 50 point player.

Look at Kirby Dach. Do you think he’s playing as well as he can right now.

 

[River Meadow]

A speedy 60 point depth player is fantastic to have no matter what’s in your system.


60 point speedy depth player is at the high end of what you can expect in what we traded away. You make that trade all day long.

I don't care about winning regular season games.

I am thinking about the playoffs.

We need size to add with our core.

Newhook ain't it.

He may be a good piece for another team but not for the makeup of our team, IMO.

 

[CrAzYNiNe]

Look at Kirby Dach. Do you think he’s playing as well as he can right now.

I like what I see more out of Dach than I do Newhook.

I just compared their stats to see they are same draft year and have about the exact same total number of NHL games played and point total.

I feel that Dach can still prove to be a top end 2nd line player, I have now been resigned to the belief that Newhook is more going to be a 3rd line player.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I don't care about winning regular season games.

I am thinking about the playoffs.

I don’t care about either. I care about cups.

You have to stop with this nonsense about us losing in the short term. It doesn’t matter.

We need size to add with our core.

Newhook ain't it.

So because Newhook isn’t big we can’t add size to our core? Might as well say we need to get rid of Cc while you’re and it. And let’s get rid of Hutson too.

He may be a good piece for another team but not for the makeup of our team, IMO.

He’s a great depth player. The kind of player you need when you are a contender. He’ll wind up on a third line with Beck and possibly Roy (though I’m hoping Roy can be a top six player.)

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I like what I see more out of Dach than I do Newhook.

Full disclosure, I’ve missed the past few games. Both have looked brutal. Dach looked good on the top line.

I just compared their stats to see they are same draft year and have about the exact same total number of NHL games played and point total.

I feel that Dach can still prove to be a top end 2nd line player, I have now been resigned to the belief that Newhook is more going to be a 3rd line player.

He likely will be a 3rd line player. But not a typical 3rd liner. He’ll offer secondary scoring in the third line and he’ll be able to move into the top solid in case of injuries.

Demidov, Laine and or Roy will likely bump him to the third. He’d be a luxury on that line.

We have such a small sample for Newhook. Last year his strong season was disrupted and this year the whole team’s been bad. So he’s not a blue chip guy. We’ll have to wait and see on him.

But I think he can be a 50 point second line player and we’ll have the luxury of being able to put him on the third. Let’s see what he can do once (if) this team straightens itself out.

 

[salbutera]

I like what I see more out of Dach than I do Newhook.

I just compared their stats to see they are same draft year and have about the exact same total number of NHL games played and point total.

I feel that Dach can still prove to be a top end 2nd line player, I have now been resigned to the belief that Newhook is more going to be a 3rd line player.

that’s what Newhook was always projected to be … a high end 3C w 200-ft game & speed

 

[River Meadow]

Full disclosure, I’ve missed the past few games. Both have looked brutal. Dach looked good on the top line.

He likely will be a 3rd line player. But not a typical 3rd liner. He’ll offer secondary scoring in the third line and he’ll be able to move into the top solid in case of injuries.

Demidov, Laine and or Roy will likely bump him to the third. He’d be a luxury on that line.

We have such a small sample for Newhook. Last year his strong season was disrupted and this year the whole team’s been bad. So he’s not a blue chip guy. We’ll have to wait and see on him.

But I think he can be a 50 point second line player and we’ll have the luxury of being able to put him on the third. Let’s see what he can do once (if) this team straightens itself out.

We're gonna need our depth players to be bigger and tougher to play against, IMO. That would be different if we had a big mean core, but we don't.

I wish Newhook the best but it's not looking great, and the longer this goes on the lower his value gets.

 

[Twisted Sinister]

A speedy 60 point depth player is fantastic to have no matter what’s in your system.


60 point speedy depth player is at the high end of what you can expect in what we traded away. You make that trade all day long.

We'll have to agree to disagree. Seems as useless as tits on a bull to me.

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

We're gonna need our depth players to be bigger and tougher to play against, IMO. That would be different if we had a big mean core, but we don't.

I wish Newhook the best but it's not looking great, and the longer this goes on the lower his value gets.

depth has to be better thats for sure but 3 players in our top 6 scored a total of 4 goals.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

We're gonna need our depth players to be bigger and tougher to play against, IMO. That would be different if we had a big mean core, but we don't.

Depth players? You mean like Xhejac x 2, Tuch, pezetta, Beck, Anderson?

I wish Newhook the best but it's not looking great, and the longer this goes on the lower his value gets.

As I said, he’s somewhat unproven. And if it was just him underperforming this is a different conversation. But the whole team sucks right now.

Imagine having a third line of Beck, Roy and Newhook. That’s a solid scoring line. That kind of scoring depth wins cups. And it’d be a solid two way line as well.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Or so they thought....yet...it all comes down to this...how are our amateur scouts are able to sell their players. Your evaluation is right on point. They did evaluate that Newhook's potential outweight those picks. But will they be right? As I personnally look at it....I don't know....Étienne Morin...Gavin Brindley, Halttunen (big body we would need), Strbak, Misiak, Sawchyn, Heidt...)...time will tell.

In the end though, no matter how it is...he will be evaluated on how it ends up to be. Right now....it looks bad. And the AVS are doing extremely well in the asset management category...both Barron and Newhook let go for high prices...and neither will make them regret it...

That's not how that works though. Yes, in actuality the picks to acquire Newhook vs the field, the field will almost always win. This is true of most trades involving picks. You don't get to pick the remaining 200 players in the draft class, you get to pick one guy with each pick. We know the math on the likelihood the picks we dealt become NHLers at all. They went with cost certainty over the variance of the picks given they've already made a lot and still had many more picks in subsequent drafts.

Almost certainly someone picked at the picks we traded or after will be a better player than Newhook. But mathematically, it is unlikely with just one shot at each one of those picks that we would have selected who that was.

But then you realize Colorado kept 31 and traded 37 for Ross Colton… much better asset management

They were competing and Colton gave them what they were looking for over Newhook at the time. The Habs acquiring Colton would have made no sense.

 

[26Mats]

I liked Newhook last year with Armia and Roy or Gallagher. Why not go back to that?

Good bottom 6:

Caufield Suzuki Dvo
Heineman Dach Slaf
Armia Newhook Roy
Gallagher Evan's Anderson

Or

Caufield Suzuki Dvo
Heineman/Roy Dach Slaf
Armia Newhook Gallagher
RHP Evan's Anderson

 

[le_sean]

Even if he hits his ceiling as 60-point speedy weakling along the boards, we just have too much of that in our system at the moment.

In what universe is Newhook going to get 60 points? Unless you’re talking about two combined seasons.

 

[sampollock]

In what universe is Newhook going to get 60 points? Unless you’re talking about two combined seasons.

he is a big fail no way 60 points

 

[gusfring]

He'll start playing much better near the latter part of the season when the games are meaningless.

 

[Whitesnake]

That's not how that works though. Yes, in actuality the picks to acquire Newhook vs the field, the field will almost always win. This is true of most trades involving picks. You don't get to pick the remaining 200 players in the draft class, you get to pick one guy with each pick. We know the math on the likelihood the picks we dealt become NHLers at all. They went with cost certainty over the variance of the picks given they've already made a lot and still had many more picks in subsequent drafts.

Almost certainly someone picked at the picks we traded or after will be a better player than Newhook. But mathematically, it is unlikely with just one shot at each one of those picks that we would have selected who that was.

Yet, if that was always true, you'd trade every single pick not in the 1st round. But then, you don't because other teams won't be always interested in your picks as they think to retain their players is a better bet.

But the Avs didn't. Did they know something we didn't? Why was acquiring Newhook better 'cause you never know what you can get in the 2nd round....but the AVs couldn't care less about that?

Why did it made sense to keep 26 and 33 and 62 in 2022? Have they tried pairing all those picks to get a cost certainty?

My analysis is that the AVS knew something was wrong as far as Newhook hockey IQ at the NHL level. While the Habs either ignored it or thought it could be fixed and if they did, he was worth those 2nd rounders. We will see.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Yet, if that was always true, you'd trade every single pick not in the 1st round. But then, you don't because other teams won't be always interested in your picks as they think to retain their players is a better bet.

But the Avs didn't. Did they know something we didn't? Why was acquiring Newhook better 'cause you never know what you can get in the 2nd round....but the AVs couldn't care less about that?

Why did it made sense to keep 26 and 33 and 62 in 2022? Have they tried pairing all those picks to get a cost certainty?

My analysis is that the AVS knew something was wrong as far as Newhook hockey IQ at the NHL level. While the Habs either ignored it or thought it could be fixed and if they did, he was worth those 2nd rounders. We will see.

The Avs didn't have any picks and wanted to get Colton. A more advanced player that they didn't have to develop to get what they wanted in their contending roster.

 

[nhlfan9191]

Yet, if that was always true, you'd trade every single pick not in the 1st round. But then, you don't because other teams won't be always interested in your picks as they think to retain their players is a better bet.

But the Avs didn't. Did they know something we didn't? Why was acquiring Newhook better 'cause you never know what you can get in the 2nd round....but the AVs couldn't care less about that?

Why did it made sense to keep 26 and 33 and 62 in 2022? Have they tried pairing all those picks to get a cost certainty?

My analysis is that the AVS knew something was wrong as far as Newhook hockey IQ at the NHL level. While the Habs either ignored it or thought it could be fixed and if they did, he was worth those 2nd rounders. We will see.

Wasn’t the argument a lot of Avs fans made that his growth was stagnating and there was a question if he had any ability to grow any further?

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

In what universe is Newhook going to get 60 points? Unless you’re talking about two combined seasons.

Yeah, pretty sure I heard similar stuff about Caufield too...

Last year he paced for 51 points and 22 goals. Was red hot before getting hurt. Please don't tell me this kid has no talent and there's no way he can be a 60 point guy. Of course he can.

That being said, the whole team sucks right now. He's not going to suddenly carry us. He's a complimentary player who provides speedy secondary scoring. Absolutely zero wrong with that. But he's not going to do it when the team is drowning.

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

 

[le_sean]

he is a big fail no way 60 points

I wouldn’t say he’s a big fail. We just have to lower our expectations. Always seemed to me to be a 40-50 point player at best. He just doesn’t really standout in any singular way.

And yeah he had a 50 point pace last year thanks to a red hot finish. When everyone was hurt and the season was over. That’s called pulling an Alex Galchenyuk or Raphael Harvey-Pinard.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I wouldn’t say he’s a big fail. We just have to lower our expectations. Always seemed to me to be a 40-50 point player at best. He just doesn’t really standout in any singular way.

He's secondary scoring. That's what we traded for and that's what he should be.

Unfortunately, nobody is living up to expectations.

And yeah he had a 50 point pace last year thanks to a red hot finish. When everyone was hurt and the season was over. That’s called pulling an Alex Galchenyuk or Raphael Harvey-Pinard.

He was just starting to get hot when he got hurt. 4 goals and 6 points in 6 games. It was the worst possible timing. He came back and it took him a while to find his game but he closed out beautifully. He likely would've hit 60 points if not for the injury. He also would've been around 25 goals.

Saying there's no way this guy can ever be a 60 point player is a really bad take. I totally agree he's played piss poorly this year but so has everyone. I don't think it's solely on this player. He's not a blue chip player, he's unproven, health got in the way of a good year. But he's got talent and he proved it last season. If the team gets its shit together, Newhook will too.