Kings Article: Alec Martinez Extension Might Be a Mistake

[YP44]

don't see how he is not worth $mil a year.
Let's say something unforeseeable happens where LA wants to get rid of his salary. This cap hit is low enough, and defense are always in demand that DL would be able to find a taker. That's not even taking into count his two cup rings, and his two series clinching goals (to some that proves he steps up when it matters the most).
Great deal for LA

 

[Sheng Peng]

1) Does anyone think he wouldn't have got this much or more on the open market? If MacDonald can get $5 million in Philly and Matt Carle can get $5.5 million in Tampa, Martinez can get $4 million minimum on the open market.

2) Barring a trade, does anyone think we can replace A-Mart for less next year? I doubt it...So what's your solution Sheng Peng?

I don't believe Carle or MacDonald are the proper comps for Martinez. Both were their team's most-used defensemen (McDonald was 1st on the Isles, 2nd on the Flyers) before their UFA years. You're comparing defenders who played 20-plus minutes a night to one who was averaging 15-16.

That said, I don't disagree that Martinez would've drawn about $4 million per on the open market. I'm just not sure if the Kings are the team who should've paid that figure is all.

About replacing him: Honestly, I haven't looked at that fully, and a lot of things can happen from here to the end of the season. Deals are usually there for good and lucky GMs though (just last summer, off the top of my head, you had Ehrhoff and Gilbert go at great rates). But I'm going to give this a shot.

Obviously, finding a championship-caliber top-four guy is difficult, especially at $4 mil per. If, and it's a big if, A-Mart proves his top-four bona fides, then I'll be happy to eat humble pie. In that case, it's obviously a great extension.

But I believe, until proven otherwise, that Martinez is "just" a #5-6 guy (albeit, perhaps the best one in the league, as Brad Doty mentioned). So that's what I'm going to look at in the potential UFA market:

The main guy that I'd consider as a UFA would be old favorite Visnovsky. He's a still-effective left-handed PMD, whose age and injury history reduces price and long-term risk.

Other interesting guys who might be had for around Martinez's AAV:

Since Ehrhoff is still making his buyout money, would he take another discount deal to play for a contender?

I'd guess that Sekera is looking for his big payday. But he's someone who's been consistently undervalued throughout his career, though perhaps not anymore.

Ehrhoff and Sekera would likely slot in the top-four and push McNabb down with Greene, which has been okay so far this year.

Petry is also an interesting right-handed guy who might be undervalued because of his association with Edmonton.

This was a glance. In terms of trade, I'm not sure at the moment. But the Kings have a fair amount of prospects to offer for a good bottom-pairing guy. And regarding the farm, it's no sure bet, but who knows who develops by next year and might be ready to take a #5-6 role.

Should his usage be different?

His usage is fine now, except give him more PP time. I'm certainly glad to have him in over McBain. So at the moment, I consider him to be the Kings' third-best defenseman. But will that be a good thing when they're facing, say, the Hawks in the postseason? It's up to him to prove that.

One thing to take note of, although AMart's advanced stats aren't looking too hot for him right now, you might want to look at the goals scored for the Kings while he is on the ice and goals against per 60 minutes. You might see there why DL re-signed him to what he did.

A solid point if the Kings weigh this heavily. From 2010-14, Martinez was second among most-used team defensemen in 5v5 Goals For % (56.4). Muzzin was first (61%), followed by Voynov (55.7%), Mitchell (54.9%), Doughty (54.3%), Greene (50%), and Regehr (46.1%). This year, he's leading the team in this department.

I don't think that means he CAN'T play different minutes...Being able to roll him out as a #5 doesn't mean he can't play with Doughty

Certainly, just because he's been LA's #5 defenseman doesn't mean he can't be a strong top-four guy. And this year, he's been forced into top-four responsiblity. However, in admittedly not very many games, I just don't think he's acquitted himself remarkably. I hope he changes my mind.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I don't believe Carle or MacDonald are the proper comps for Martinez. Both were their team's most-used defensemen (McDonald was 1st on the Isles, 2nd on the Flyers) before their UFA years. You're comparing defenders who played 20-plus minutes a night to one who was averaging 15-16.

That said, I don't disagree that Martinez would've drawn about $4 million per on the open market. I'm just not sure if the Kings are the team who should've paid that figure is all.

About replacing him: Honestly, I haven't looked at that fully, and a lot of things can happen from here to the end of the season. Deals are usually there for good and lucky GMs though (just last summer, off the top of my head, you had Ehrhoff and Gilbert go at great rates). But I'm going to give this a shot.

Obviously, finding a championship-caliber top-four guy is difficult, especially at $4 mil per. If, and it's a big if, A-Mart proves his top-four bona fides, then I'll be happy to eat humble pie. In that case, it's obviously a great extension.

But I believe, until proven otherwise, that Martinez is "just" a #5-6 guy (albeit, perhaps the best one in the league, as Brad Doty mentioned). So that's what I'm going to look at in the potential UFA market:

The main guy that I'd consider as a UFA would be old favorite Visnovsky. He's a still-effective left-handed PMD, whose age and injury history reduces price and long-term risk.

Other interesting guys who might be had for around Martinez's AAV:

Since Ehrhoff is still making his buyout money, would he take another discount deal to play for a contender?

I'd guess that Sekera is looking for his big payday. But he's someone who's been consistently undervalued throughout his career, though perhaps not anymore.

Ehrhoff and Sekera would likely slot in the top-four and push McNabb down with Greene, which has been okay so far this year.

Petry is also an interesting right-handed guy who might be undervalued because of his association with Edmonton.

This was a glance. In terms of trade, I'm not sure at the moment. But the Kings have a fair amount of prospects to offer for a good bottom-pairing guy. And regarding the farm, it's no sure bet, but who knows who develops by next year and might be ready to take a #5-6 role.



His usage is fine now, except give him more PP time. I'm certainly glad to have him in over McBain. So at the moment, I consider him to be the Kings' third-best defenseman. But will that be a good thing when they're facing, say, the Hawks in the postseason? It's up to him to prove that.



A solid point if the Kings weigh this heavily. From 2010-14, Martinez was second among most-used team defensemen in 5v5 Goals For % (56.4). Muzzin was first (61%), followed by Voynov (55.7%), Mitchell (54.9%), Doughty (54.3%), Greene (50%), and Regehr (46.1%). This year, he's leading the team in this department.



Certainly, just because he's been LA's #5 defenseman doesn't mean he can't be a strong top-four guy. And this year, he's been forced into top-four responsiblity. However, in admittedly not very many games, I just don't think he's acquitted himself remarkably. I hope he changes my mind.

Probably right, but I think on those teams, Martinez would at least (assuming same time in career, etc.) be in the slot right below those guys. I.e. there's no way Martinez is less than a #2 on an Isles team where MacDonald is #1.

The guys you mention I'd love as well--but not sure they'd come any cheaper nor on the Kings am I sure they would slot any better. Sekera I TOTALLY agree with--guy is a monster--but would we be paying him to languish on the 3rd pairing? He wouldn't take Regehr's spot, would he (though I could see him performing very well with either DOughty or Voynov not sure his game is DL's MO)? Other guys are similar, though I did just post in a Petry thread that if Voynov were vortexed for the year + then he would be probably the ideal trade piece to play with...Martinez most likely It just ruffles significant wrinkles into the lineup but I guess the GMs job is to massage that. Good thoughts though.

You ask if we'd be comfortable/is that a good thing if Martinez is our 3rd best guy in the playoffs. I'd say absolutely, assuming it's because he's on top of his game, not that everyone else is dead. I actually really like Martinez against the Hawks--though not sure offhand what the underlying numbers say (though I'm sure they're not pretty for anyone vs. the Hawks, would love to see team-relative comparisons)--because of his mobility. As other posters have noted in the past, I'm less comfortable with him vs. hulks like Benn, Getzlaf--he lacks Voynov's leverage-pinch ability (to which I would say Voynov is one of the best I've ever seen for making up for his size, though).

 

[Ron*]

You know what all this angst really comes down to?

The title of the piece using the word "mistake" in it. For me, it was a pretty visceral reaction, maybe for others as well. It really is a poor choice of words. After all, what you are implying is a mistake that would last six years.

Perhaps your article would have been better received if you titled it something iike: "Alec Martinez Contract A Cause For Concern For Some" or better yet "Alec Martinez Extension Raises Some Eyebrows."

 

[kingsfan]

Thanks for the reply Sheng Peng.

I won't wade through most of it because it really would just turn into my opinion versus yours on a lot of those guys and who would play what ice time, etc. I'll just say I side with Brad Doty (great user name btw!) that Martinez would not be a #5 on those teams MacDonald and Carle were playing for. So they are far more comparible than you are giving credit for.

All I really want to argue with your statement is about Jeff Petry. I'm assuming you are basing your appreciation for him on some advanced stat but the guy is dreadful. I have no idea why Edmonton plays him as much as they do, I assume he's Eakins pet or something. I'd hate to see us get him.

Also, I agree with Ron. poor choice of wording in the headline. Something like "Martinez extension has potential pitfalls" would have been fine. I guess that's the value of adding shock value to your article though huh?

 

[Captain Mittens*]

Also, I agree with Ron. poor choice of wording in the headline. Something like "Martinez extension has potential pitfalls" would have been fine.

 

[tsanuri]

You know what all this angst really comes down to?

The title of the piece using the word "mistake" in it. For me, it was a pretty visceral reaction, maybe for others as well. It really is a poor choice of words. After all, what you are implying is a mistake that would last six years.

Perhaps your article would have been better received if you titled it something iike: "Alec Martinez Contract A Cause For Concern For Some" or better yet "Alec Martinez Extension Raises Some Eyebrows."

Yes but I'm sure the shocking name was done on purpose. Just if nothing else for click bait. Which is the exact reason I have stayed out of the thread until this. I'm not going to reward with traffic.
And if it had been worded in the way you suggested I probably would have clicked it to read.

 

[Ron*]

Yes but I'm sure the shocking name was done on purpose. Just if nothing else for click bait. Which is the exact reason I have stayed out of the thread until this. I'm not going to reward with traffic.
And if it had been worded in the way you suggested I probably would have clicked it to read.

I figured as much anyway just didn't state the obvious. It's too bad "journalists" have to resort (or feel they have to resort) to such yellow tactics in order to get someone to read their articles.

 

[theMajor]

seeing as Dion 'the Pylon' Phaneuf is making 7MM per, I'd take Martinez @ 4MM every day of the week and twice on Sunday. hes good.
I always wondered why he was in Sutter's doghouse for so long, it never made sense to me. Fast forward a few years and he's scoring the series clinching goal against Chicago and then the cup clinching goal against NY, it made me even more pissed that Sutter sat him for so long. the kid is a stud in every sense of the word and is only getting better

 

[Mitchnesses]

Hopefully in a couple of years, this extension will ook like a brilliant signing to all, not just a select few of us.

 

[kingsfan]

Great game back in the day.

I figured as much anyway just didn't state the obvious. It's too bad "journalists" have to resort (or feel they have to resort) to such yellow tactics in order to get someone to read their articles.

It's short term gain. They get clicks now, but after a few articles that people see are pretty much nothing but an opinion piece, and likely one done to just play devil's advocate and encourage a bunch of people to post saying it's BS, the smart ones will tune out. Those who feel the need to post inflamitory titles will see that drop off sooner. Eklund types not withstanding.

 

[Sheng Peng]

After all, what you are implying is a mistake that would last six years.

While I don't write titles JUST for clicks, I did realize the word "mistake" would get a few more eyeballs than usual. That said, I went forward with it because the choice of word (along with the critical qualifier "might") accurately reflects the article's content: IF Martinez ends up no better than being a good #5-6 guy, in my opinion, the deal is a mistake.

Hopefully in a couple of years, this extension will ook like a brilliant signing to all, not just a select few of us.

And if he ends up being a legitimate top-four guy, it's a fantastic deal, and I sold A-Mart short. Again, I'd be pleased if that's the case.

I actually really like Martinez against the Hawks--though not sure offhand what the underlying numbers say (though I'm sure they're not pretty for anyone vs. the Hawks, would love to see team-relative comparisons)--because of his mobility. As other posters have noted in the past, I'm less comfortable with him vs. hulks like Benn, Getzlaf

Well, I was just using the Hawks as an example. The point is having a championship-caliber top-four guy who you feel comfortable with in pretty much all situations. So while a particular defenseman may not be ideal against the Getzlaf-types, he needs to break even or so against all types (while crushing some situations).

All I really want to argue with your statement is about Jeff Petry.

Yes, Petry does fine with advanced stats. But in addition, having watched him, I think there's a lot of talent + some of his bad habits can be improved upon with a much better team (a la McNabb).

 

[Captain Mittens*]

While I don't write titles JUST for clicks, I did realize the word "mistake" would get a few more eyeballs than usual.

So you aren't exactly a click-*****, but this does make you a click-call girl.

 

[King'sPawn]

seeing as Dion 'the Pylon' Phaneuf is making 7MM per, I'd take Martinez @ 4MM every day of the week and twice on Sunday. hes good.
I always wondered why he was in Sutter's doghouse for so long, it never made sense to me. Fast forward a few years and he's scoring the series clinching goal against Chicago and then the cup clinching goal against NY, it made me even more pissed that Sutter sat him for so long. the kid is a stud in every sense of the word and is only getting better

Seems to be a silly thing to get pissed at Sutter about. How do you know Sutter's doghouse/discipline wasn't what made Martinez the cup clinching player he is?

 

[Ron*]

While I don't write titles JUST for clicks, I did realize the word "mistake" would get a few more eyeballs than usual. That said, I went forward with it because the choice of word (along with the critical qualifier "might") accurately reflects the article's content: IF Martinez ends up no better than being a good #5-6 guy, in my opinion, the deal is a mistake.

Putting a weak qualifying word like "might" does very little, if anything, to mitigate the damage caused by using an inflammatory word such as "mistake."

I think you know what you were doing. Personally, I would give your written product a whole lot more credibility if you used headlines that were commensurate with the content of your writing.

So you aren't exactly a click-*****, but this does make you a click-call girl.

Pretty much this.

 

[Mitchnesses]

I really think we need Sheng Peng and Gann to duke it out enforcer style in the middle of the ice. The winner we will put up with the loser has to go be a writer for the Coyotes.

Go Gann Go!

 

[kingsfan]

Yes, Petry does fine with advanced stats. But in addition, having watched him, I think there's a lot of talent + some of his bad habits can be improved upon with a much better team (a la McNabb).

I'm glad DL's our GM and not you. Stats can be useful as a support for the eye test. Petry is a horror show.

 

[PJ Kings Hockey]

Putting a weak qualifying word like "might" does very little, if anything, to mitigate the damage caused by using an inflammatory word such as "mistake."

I think you know what you were doing. Personally, I would give your written product a whole lot more credibility if you used headlines that were commensurate with the content of your writing.



Pretty much this.

I think he made it pretty clear that his writing questions if the signing was the right decision or a mistake. Facts were presented to support his point, yet he is clearly open to hearing rebuttals. I don't see that he has to defend his credibility because he is not naive about how to present his own craft.

We play armchair GM all the time, questioning if this trade or inaction or contract extension is clever or a mistake. Inflammatory? Mitigate damages? The extension can be argued either way, to be a smart move or a mistake. Sheng Peng made a good, unemotional argument for the latter (affection for Marty notwithstanding). Period.

This ridiculousness is raising my blood pressure so it's time for me to move on out of this thread again. Calling him a click-prostitute? Have some respect.