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Kings Article: Alec Martinez Extension Might Be a Mistake

Proof positive there are too many amateur hockey writers out there with too few subjects to write about, so let's take some meaningless numbers from the past when Martinez got very little ice time and make hay of it.

And then write a crap article about it.
 
Ron said:
Proof positive there are too many amateur hockey writers out there with too few subjects to write about, so let's take some meaningless numbers from the past when Martinez got very little ice time and make hay of it.

And then write a crap article about it.
Click to expand...

I happen to think there's some merit to the article.
 
I think there are two factors in those numbers that are now influencing future predictions with A-Mart: Voynov and Mitchell.

The Voynov situation has been tossed all over these boards, but realistically unless the case is thrown out Voynov has become a much depreciated asset. Think about it this way, right now he's a $4 million player who's not allowed on the ice with his teammates. He has lost close to a third of the season and, realistically, is unlikely to be on the ice in the foreseeable future. As such, AMart has found himself in essentially the #3 slot on this team ahead of McNabb, Regehr, and Greene. He is invaluable in this mobility and so long as we don't have to see him covering for Doughty or Muzzin long term, he is capable of filling the other $4 million slot on the blueline going forward. Should the Voynov situation end with some kind of criminal conviction, visa issues, and NHL sanction (please Lord, no) it is absolutely essential to have a 27 year old, second pairing defenseman with system experience and 2 cups under his belt on the blueline. The numbers in the article cannot correct for this reality.

The second, and more interesting statistical question, is what happens to AMart now that Mitchell is gone. The language on these boards for years has been that the Kings are an O-D/Stay-at-home pairing team. That undervalues Mitchell's offensive contributions and the role he was able to play as an all-around defenseman who moved up and down the lineup as needed. If we've seen anything with this team over the last few years it's what I refer to as the '40 game adjustment period.' This is what Muzzin went through last season, it's what McNabb is going through now, and I think it will happen to AMart this year as they adjust to new roles up and down the lineup. The defense seem to need about 40 games to adjust and then they take off. I think AMart is being thrown into a new role and will adjust once the D settles down somewhat and he and Regehr really adjust to each other and their minutes. Losing Mitchell and then Voynov forced more adjustment and shuffling than we'd care to admit.

At this point, I will say that the numbers are concerning, but it is a small sample. I think a changing context helps explain them rather than assuming it is a lack of ability on AMart's part. That said, we should look at this again in mid-February and see if there is an upward trend in his overall performance (provided the team doesn't do something like the standard January-February slump where they forget how to score and then turn it on in March which really messes with those kind of short term statistical snapshots). If we see overall improvement for the rest of the season I will argue that we have yet to see AMart's ceiling. For now, I think it is too early to tell.
 
Lots of research done for a dubious conclusion. Don't want to trash your work man, but Alec Martinez is a major factor into the Kings winning the 2nd cup and has been one of our better PLAYERS this season. There are definitely things that can't be measured in hockey stats that make him a valuable addition to this team. As a matter of fact, I think DL purposely built this team with that in mind, hence why no one is putting up crazy NHL all-star numbers except for Quick.
 
jpnd5-jazz-hands.jpg
 
You can do all the advanced stat crunching you want, but when you get down to it we're talking about a 27-year old entering the prime of his career. Not to mention he was a UFA not an RFA, has two rings, and is coming off his best statistical year on record.

No way was he going to be bagged for anything LESS than 4 million. If the Kings wanted to keep him that was probably the absolute minimum he was taking.

Maybe it is a good contract, maybe it's a bad one, but I feel like in this scenario analytics are way too small of a portion to judge it on. Too many factors are in it that are way more important. Yes he's on a bit of a statistical decline, but it's more or less probably a "Valley" in his curve so to speak. All the aforementioned stuff is what dictated his price more or less.
 
Mobile Dmen with multiple cups on their resume are highly sought after on the FA market. Even if he isnt a true top 4, there would be a biding war for sure if he hit the FA market. He could also become a trade asset down the line as he likely has solid value on the trade market to a team looking for a vet Dman signed long term. Not saying it will ever happen, but it's good to have options.
 
This is the debate I used to have with our departed hometown discount loving member.

You can sit here and say, "No way Dean give AMart $4 million" or "No way is Kopitar getting almost $10 million from the Kings"

The problem with that thinking is, these guys are UFA's, if the Kings don't pay them market value someone else is going to pay them more than market value.


The Kings will trim the fat by getting rid of a couple of the bad contracts we have at forward, no way was DL going to risk losing Martinez after he already lost Mitchell, will likely lose RR and with Voynov in limbo. The Kings are going to have cap issues this coming year, and the next year when Kopi's extension kicks in, this is DL saying that Martinez is not going to be one of the casualties, and rightfully so, he has been one of the Kings best players since about February of this year.
 
Martinez and Muzzin stepped up their games big time last season, espcially in the playoffs. That's not paying for a nice streak had, but rather, paying for players much improved. I don't believe anyone would describe the price as discounted, but probably fair more or less. But given that Martinez is solid and only 27, you don't want to simply let him go and have another repeat of Phillipe Boucher
 
This is why advance stats are not all that. . You can really take numbers and twist them to fit your argument and make them look all different. Sit down and watch the game. Good signing and our defense is solid for years to come with or without Voynov.
 
i actually think he's played even better since the signing. He's been very active in the pp's the last two games.
 
Herby said:
This is the debate I used to have with our departed hometown discount loving member.

You can sit here and say, "No way Dean give AMart $4 million" or "No way is Kopitar getting almost $10 million from the Kings"

The problem with that thinking is, these guys are UFA's, if the Kings don't pay them market value someone else is going to pay them more than market value.


The Kings will trim the fat by getting rid of a couple of the bad contracts we have at forward, no way was DL going to risk losing Martinez after he already lost Mitchell, will likely lose RR and with Voynov in limbo. The Kings are going to have cap issues this coming year, and the next year when Kopi's extension kicks in, this is DL saying that Martinez is not going to be one of the casualties, and rightfully so, he has been one of the Kings best players since about February of this year.
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There won't be any cap issues. Kopitar is the last piece of the core that needs to be locked up. The Salary cap will not prevent that from happening.

The core locked up is all that matters.
 
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damacles1156 said:
There won't be any cap issues. Kopitar is the last piece of the core that needs to be locked up. The Salary cap will not prevent that from happening.

The core locked up is all that matters.
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Does it really matter who comes and goes when your core consists of Kopitar/Carter/Doughty/Quick? Best core in the league.
 
Nashville Transplant said:
And you've done an incredible job supporting your statement.
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I've made numerous remarks citing Martinez's sheltered minutes before. Sorry if I didn't feel like typing them all up again.

Martinez has excelled when he has played on the third pairing. In the past, when there were more demands of him, he struggled. He had plenty of powerplay time, with very little penalty killing time.

Now this season, I agree, he has looked better. I also appreciate his ability to play on both the right and left side.

But I don't believe the performance to date has warranted a salary of a top four defenseman, when he has only had to be a top four defenseman for a quarter of a season.

Edit: Also wanted to add I avoided getting into detail, because often times people here aren't very good at discussing dissenting opinions without resorting to rudeness or trash talking. This thread littered with calling the article "trash" and your smartass remark about how "I did an incredible job supporting my statement" when I simply said there's merit to the article just further proves that point.

You (general you) can make this place absolutely no fun discussing issues at times.
 
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