After the Walker Trade

Ghosts Beer

I saw Goody Fletcher with the Devil!
Feb 10, 2014
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Yes, they overplayed Ersson. Torts admitted it.

But they didn't have any other options because they lost their #1 goalie, Hart, to a criminal charge and leave of absence.

Unfortunately, Ersson doesn't seem, to this point, to be able to handle a heavy workload.
 

Ghosts Beer

I saw Goody Fletcher with the Devil!
Feb 10, 2014
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Considering you've repeatedly shown and admitted you have no understanding of the metrics, I have many doubts.

Edit: yeah, their offensive production was average, and so was their defensive metrics. To turn in a good result they'd have needed better than good goaltending, since they weren't actually good anywhere else.

Is this another case where you don't understand how to use stats, or is this a case of lying?
Flyers were 9th in the NHL in all-situations CF% at 53.00% during those last 18 games.

They had an xGF% of 51.27%.

534 scoring chances for vs. 465 scoring chances against.

That was 6th in the NHL in least scoring chances against.

4th in the NHL over those 18 games in shots-for vs. shots against percentage.

Does that sound to you like a team that "folded"?

Their team save percentage was dead last in the NHL over those last 18 games by a MILE.

An 83.56% team save %

2nd to last in the NHL over that span was 86.64%

And you want to imply this wasn't a goaltending issue?
 

freakydallas13

Registered User
Jan 30, 2007
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Here are their goalie save percentages over those 18 games:

Ersson .861
Fedotov .811
Sandstrom .786

The team's metrics were actually good. They didn't quit. Their goaltending fell apart.
1000007309.png



Yes lots of this comes from goaltending, but the offense really didn't do anything to help either.
 

blackjackmulligan

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Jun 17, 2022
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Yes, they overplayed Ersson. Torts admitted it.

But they didn't have any other options because they lost their #1 goalie, Hart, to a criminal charge and leave of absence.

Unfortunately, Ersson doesn't seem, to this point, to be able to handle a heavy workload.
So then the GM failed to address the situation. Another Flyers failure. They saw Sam couldn't handle it last season and did nothing to help him.
 
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Ghosts Beer

I saw Goody Fletcher with the Devil!
Feb 10, 2014
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So then the GM failed to address the situation. Another Flyers failure. They saw Sam couldn't handle it last season and did nothing to help him.
I mean, that of course can be a legit criticism. Though I don't think anyone can predict goaltending falling apart to the tune of an 83.5% save percentage over an 18 game span. That's basically unheard of.

Regardless, though, the argument in this thread that I've been responding to is that the team "folded." Implying they quit. They didn't. Their goaltending went ice cold.
 

blackjackmulligan

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I mean, that of course can be a legit criticism. Though I don't think anyone can predict goaltending falling apart to the tune of an 83.5% save percentage over an 18 game span. That's basically unheard of.

Regardless, though, the argument in this thread that I've been responding to is that the team "folded." Implying they quit. They didn't. Their goaltending went ice cold.
I myself have no issue with them playing Sam down the stretch. Simple case of show me what you have Sam.

I don't think they quit or folded either. they just are not a good team. The coaching those last dozen games was also very questionable.
 

Beef Invictus

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Flyers were 9th in the NHL in all-situations CF% at 53.00% during those last 18 games.

They had an xGF% of 51.27%.

534 scoring chances for vs. 465 scoring chances against.

That was 6th in the NHL in least scoring chances against.

4th in the NHL over those 18 games in shots-for vs. shots against percentage.

Does that sound to you like a team that "folded"?

Their team save percentage was dead last in the NHL over those last 18 games by a MILE.

An 83.56% team save %

2nd to last in the NHL over that span was 86.64%

And you want to imply this wasn't a goaltending issue?

I've addressed this repeatedly, going back to when he was hired. Actual goal production with Tortorella is more instructive than xGF because his play style ticks up that stat, but does so by pounding easy saves at goalies because his restrictions on playmaking means the goalie is usually set. This is why over a massive timespan, Tortorella's teams have GF numbers that clearly (and sometimes massively )underperform their xGF, which shouldn't be the case. Those two stats should begin to line up over enough time.

You're leaving out the vital context that not all shots and chances are equal, that the things which happen prior to a shot matters, and that Tortorella preaches a play style that neuters threat from their chances.

Are you omitting important information deliberately to be dishonest in support of your default devotion to authority, or do you just not understand this stuff? It is one of the two things.


And on top of that, their suite of defensive metrics aren't hot either. Not bad, but not good and definitely not great. Just adequate. So even with good goaltending, they were going anywhere. They'd have needed "steals games" levels of goaltending to get anywhere.

Things flat-out are not as rosy and nice as you claim. The eye test at the time showed that, and the metrics (the whole picture with proper context, not your selection of only the bits you like) also show that.
 

deadhead

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Feb 26, 2014
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And are heading into the season with 2 of those guys as our top 2 guys.

And the shitty Johnson on D.
Which is called "rebuilding."
See if the young goaltenders can handle the job while other goalie prospects develop.

Johnson is the 7th D-man, he'll play as much as Staal last year.
Staal played 437 minutes over 35 games, mostly due to injury and the Walker trade.
Risto only played 31 games, Seeler missed 11 games, Drysdale was injured.

If Briere wanted to make the playoffs this year, he'd have acquired a veteran center, which is what Hextall (Filppula) and CF (Hayes) did. I think he probably kicked the tires on some young centers who could be part of a rebuild (Pinto, Necas?) but the price wasn't right.

They're prepared to take one step back, they didn't expect Michkov to come over for a couple more years.
 

deadhead

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Feb 26, 2014
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I've addressed this repeatedly, going back to when he was hired. Actual goal production with Tortorella is more instructive than xGF because his play style ticks up that stat, but does so by pounding easy saves at goalies because his restrictions on playmaking means the goalie is usually set. This is why over a massive timespan, Tortorella's teams have GF numbers that clearly (and sometimes massively )underperform their xGF, which shouldn't be the case. Those two stats should begin to line up over enough time.

You're leaving out the vital context that not all shots and chances are equal, that the things which happen prior to a shot matters, and that Tortorella preaches a play style that neuters threat from their chances.

Are you omitting important information deliberately to be dishonest in support of your default devotion to authority, or do you just not understand this stuff? It is one of the two things.


And on top of that, their suite of defensive metrics aren't hot either. Not bad, but not good and definitely not great. Just adequate. So even with good goaltending, they were going anywhere. They'd have needed "steals games" levels of goaltending to get anywhere.

Things flat-out are not as rosy and nice as you claim. The eye test at the time showed that, and the metrics (the whole picture with proper context, not your selection of only the bits you like) also show that.
CBJ (Even Strength):
2016-17: GF 194, xGF 179
2017-18: GF 193, xGF 192
2018-19: GF 213, xGF 188
2019-20: GF 145, xGF 145
2020-21: GF 110, xGF 103
PHL
2022-23: GF 174, xGF 178
2023-24: GF 178, xGF 188

Maybe it helps to have a few goal scorers who are good at finishing?
 

Beef Invictus

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CBJ (Even Strength):
2016-17: GF 194, xGF 179
2017-18: GF 193, xGF 192
2018-19: GF 213, xGF 188
2019-20: GF 145, xGF 145
2020-21: GF 110, xGF 103
PHL
2022-23: GF 174, xGF 178
2023-24: GF 178, xGF 188

Maybe it helps to have a few goal scorers who are good at finishing?

Pray tell how you have cherrypicked this? Because last time I went through this with you, those were not the numbers. Pretty much none of them, actually.

Edit: Oh, and how come NY isn't there? Considering he's here to replicate NYR more than CBJ who were pushing him to be more modern in ways he disliked, it seems a weird thing to leave off. Like how one year they managed to be at the top of the league for xGF and at the bottom for actual GF.
 
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blackjackmulligan

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Which is called "rebuilding."
See if the young goaltenders can handle the job while other goalie prospects develop.

Johnson is the 7th D-man, he'll play as much as Staal last year.
Staal played 437 minutes over 35 games, mostly due to injury and the Walker trade.
Risto only played 31 games, Seeler missed 11 games, Drysdale was injured.

If Briere wanted to make the playoffs this year, he'd have acquired a veteran center, which is what Hextall (Filppula) and CF (Hayes) did. I think he probably kicked the tires on some young centers who could be part of a rebuild (Pinto, Necas?) but the price wasn't right.

They're prepared to take one step back, they didn't expect Michkov to come over for a couple more years.
BS on both. They want to make the playoffs this year. That is straight out of their mouths. You saying they don't is not factual.

He didn't kick the tire son anyone except maybe Krebs as he doesn't want to trade anyone who is part of this magical culture core that produces a lot of winning.
 

blackjackmulligan

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Jun 17, 2022
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Which is called "rebuilding."
See if the young goaltenders can handle the job while other goalie prospects develop.

Johnson is the 7th D-man, he'll play as much as Staal last year.
Staal played 437 minutes over 35 games, mostly due to injury and the Walker trade.
Risto only played 31 games, Seeler missed 11 games, Drysdale was injured.

If Briere wanted to make the playoffs this year, he'd have acquired a veteran center, which is what Hextall (Filppula) and CF (Hayes) did. I think he probably kicked the tires on some young centers who could be part of a rebuild (Pinto, Necas?) but the price wasn't right.

They're prepared to take one step back, they didn't expect Michkov to come over for a couple more years.
They are not smart enough or even willing enough to take a step back. If they were it would have started last season. Can't for the life of me understand why you constantly defend this organization when defending them is just not warranted.

Nothing has been done to indicate they are in this for lack of a better word the long haul.

This team is lacking in every major area with no end in sight to turn it around. Their prospects are dime a dozen that every team has so not like they have a Richards, Carter, or Umberger coming along. They have next to nothing after MM. They haven’t shown the ability to draft or identify elite or all-star level talent. The development is also not any great shakes. Who has cement head got to the NHL on a consistent basis? 99% of the signings they make are an overpay.

Last but not least please do not give me this is a new management team. Ever wonder why legit peeps turned down the President job. They are the 3 stooges running this team. With an outdated coach having the most say at the NHL level.
 

tucson83

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Sep 30, 2017
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They are not smart enough or even willing enough to take a step back. If they were it would have started last season. Can't for the life of me understand why you constantly defend this organization when defending them is just not warranted.

Nothing has been done to indicate they are in this for lack of a better word the long haul.

This team is lacking in every major area with no end in sight to turn it around. Their prospects are dime a dozen that every team has so not like they have a Richards, Carter, or Umberger coming along. They have next to nothing after MM. They haven’t shown the ability to draft or identify elite or all-star level talent. The development is also not any great shakes. Who has cement head got to the NHL on a consistent basis? 99% of the signings they make are an overpay.

Last but not least please do not give me this is a new management team. Ever wonder why legit peeps turned down the President job. They are the 3 stooges running this team. With an outdated coach having the most say at the NHL level.
what makes you think setting a losing culture to get a superstar that you may not get because of lottery is great for any team/organization especially when there's nothing to win for 10 plus years? you think losing means nothing for the players that want to win? if you think winning culture isnt important at all when it comes to winning cups not just talent, then you really dont care about winning at all. talent means nothing if you setting a tone to lose every year.
 

deadhead

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Feb 26, 2014
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To pick in the top 5 they'd have to strip the team, and do you think Michkov might have accepted being drafted by them (and having to wait 5+ years to make the playoffs) if they had done so?

It took a total meltdown by the goalies to miss the playoffs and get #12.

It would take a similar meltdown this year to pick in the top 10. Even if they had traded TK (for that late 1st rd, 2nd rd and other asset), they would still probably be a 90 point team with average goaltending. So unless you're going to make Peterson the starting goaltender . . .

Michkov, Foerster, Tippett, Farabee, Brink, Cates, Hathaway, Lycksell would be your 8 forwards without TK. Enough firepower to be mediocre, especially if Drysdale stays healthy.

It's hard to be terrible. You really have to work at it.
 

Beef Invictus

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what makes you think setting a losing culture to get a superstar that you may not get because of lottery is great for any team/organization especially when there's nothing to win for 10 plus years? you think losing means nothing for the players that want to win? if you think winning culture isnt important at all when it comes to winning cups not just talent, then you really dont care about winning at all. talent means nothing if you setting a tone to lose every year.

They already have a losing culture.
 
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Deadpool8812

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or they tried in vain to re-sign him and couldn't. then they moved him. Nah can't be that simple. They fact you think playoffs wasn't their goal as to why Walker was moved is funny to me.

They are trying to make the playoffs. They said so themselves. They didn't add anyone because they have zero cap space, no top end players want to come to Philly, they refused to trade their winning core. not much room on the stud roster.

They are not a playoff team even with all your caveats.
Pretty sure our GM can even be quoted as saying "Laughton deserves a chance to win with these guys"
 

blackjackmulligan

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Jun 17, 2022
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what makes you think setting a losing culture to get a superstar that you may not get because of lottery is great for any team/organization especially when there's nothing to win for 10 plus years? you think losing means nothing for the players that want to win? if you think winning culture isnt important at all when it comes to winning cups not just talent, then you really dont care about winning at all. talent means nothing if you setting a tone to lose every year.
losing culture has already been long established. Does TK really want to win? All these flyers player know is losing and yet here we are.

If the Flyers were worried about a losing culture, then they would have changed their "core" significantly.
 
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Hextallent63

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Oct 13, 2011
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Yes, they overplayed Ersson. Torts admitted it.

But they didn't have any other options because they lost their #1 goalie, Hart, to a criminal charge and leave of absence.

Unfortunately, Ersson doesn't seem, to this point, to be able to handle a heavy workload.
Yeah it's a shame because when his workload was lighter he played really good in my opinion like you said I just don't think you can handle a starting goaltender workload right now
 
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Deadpool8812

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Feb 10, 2018
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Yeah it's a shame because when his workload was lighter he played really good in my opinion like you said I just don't think you can handle a starting goaltender workload right now
Unfortunately he doesn't have a choice really. You hope we don't have to overplay him again, but it will depend on how well Fedotov plays.
 
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