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Buffalo Bills AFCCG: (2) Buffalo at (1) Kansas City; Sunday 1/26 @ 6:30 PM ET, CBS

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Dirty Dog said:
Of course, Allen put in incredible work in the NFL to improve every part of his game. It’s why he’s already an all time great. Doesn’t change anything I said though, and it doesn’t mean he was wildly inaccurate in college
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You are trying to get into a semantical debate around "wildly inaccurate".

Most talent evaluators will look at a guy with a sub-60% completion percentage in college and one who has less than ideal mechanics and label them wildly inaccurate.

And even trying to make excuses about it by saying his teammates at Wyoming weren't that great, well neither was the competition he was playing at Wyoming, either.

No matter how you slice it, few QBs have had sub-60% completion percentages in college over the past 10-15 years and developed as pros the way that Josh and Lamar have.
 
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Jim Bob said:
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I <3 McD. Really hoping he can bring a championship home. Josh talked about how early in his career McD was very controlling. As Josh progressed, he slowly loosened the leash. Allen also talked about how McD flipped his shit on him for a TO he committed in 2019, and that stuck with him to start being less wreckless with the ball.

A lot of people want to hang McD. They don't want to give him credit for playing a role in developing a raw QB into an elite QB. But, from everything I've heard from Allen, McD handled him really well.
 
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Jim Bob said:
You are trying to get into a semantical debate around "wildly inaccurate".

Most talent evaluators will look at a guy with a sub-60% completion percentage in college and one who has less than ideal mechanics and label them wildly inaccurate.

And even trying to make excuses about it by saying his teammates at Wyoming weren't that great, well neither was the competition he was playing at Wyoming, either.

No matter how you slice it, few QBs have had sub-60% completion percentages in college over the past 10-15 years and developed as pros the way that Josh and Lamar have.
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It’s not even close to a semantics argument. He was not inaccurate, period. And it’s not “excuses,” it’s an explanation to you and others that accuracy is just one factor of completion percentage. Amongst many factors, it’s not tough to understand. A lot of people in the stats community got that completely wrong.

But it’s much easier to pretend this was unforeseeable and just a crazy exception to a rule, rather than admitting the rule was problematic. Which it was.

But I’m a stats nerd, so silly rules like completion percentages and draft prospects are funny to me.
 
The USA Map:

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Dirty Dog said:
It’s not even close to a semantics argument. He was not inaccurate, period. And it’s not “excuses,” it’s an explanation to you and others that accuracy is just one factor of completion percentage. Amongst many factors, it’s not tough to understand. A lot of people in the stats community got that completely wrong.

But it’s much easier to pretend this was unforeseeable and just a crazy exception to a rule, rather than admitting the rule was problematic. Which it was.

But I’m a stats nerd, so silly rules like completion percentages and draft prospects are funny to me.
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The problem is that a lot of your explanation goes against what Josh has said himself.

It also goes against what scouts said who watched him at Wyoming and the numbers backed up what they saw with their eyes. It's like how the Sabres scouts and analytics team try and layer stuff and if there is a disconnect between what the numbers say and what the scouts say, they investigate more.

But, by all reports, and even Josh admits, there were real technical and immaturity issues that led to him being an inaccurate thrower of the ball in college and early in his pro career.
 
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Zman5778 said:
To be fair.....no one has really ever cleaned up his mechanics the way Josh has. I think most realized that his throwing mechanics were shit......but again, there really hasn't been a QB (and certainly not a top 10 QB) who overhauled his mechanics as successfully as Josh has. He put in MAJOR work to get where he is.
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Most QBs have already had an absolute wealth of specialized coaching by the time they’re draft eligible. Josh was constantly overlooked and under-coached up to that point. He wasn’t a guy who couldn’t learn, he was a guy who hadn’t been taught.
 
One thing on the Baltimore game to wrap it up and one thing going forward for the KC game (and they may be a bit related)

We held Baltimore to 25 points and scored 27. Baltimore this season, counting playoffs, was 13-0 when they scored 28 points or more, and 0-6 when they scored 27 or less. The most points they gave up in any of those 6 losses were the 29 (to Cleveland). Buffalo's 27 was tied for the 2nd most. So, again, kudos to the defense holding them under that magic number.

Looking forward (well, actually also looking back at the last KC meeting) - the KC defense actually held Buffalo's offense pretty well in check in the week 11 game. The backs in the running game, in particular, went nowhere fast (and the Bills abandoned it pretty quickly)

If anything, the defense played over expectations more in that game than the offense did. Both teams got 9 possessions, and Buffalo's defense got 6 stops, KC's 4.5 (counting a red zone stop as a half). I would not necessarily expect either team to score on less than half their possessions in this game, which means red zone stops to hold the scoring down will be key, as will doing a better job establishing the run on offense to avoid obvious passing downs where Spags can go to work.

KC's offense is playing better right now than they were earlier in the season when they played us. They can stretch the field a little better with Brown, and Kelce is going to be more of a factor in the playoffs. The big thing that concerns me is that KC really hasn't faced any "have to have it" moments on offense this year. They had a big enough lead on us for the conference when we met first that they could afford to lose that game, and the vast majority of the "scares" they've gotten this year they have been playing from ahead for most of the game. Since they lost to us, their opposition hasn't had a single possession while leading. They've got to have a handful of plays just sitting, waiting, that no one has seen before that they are waiting for an important offensive down to break out. That's not necessarily ideal.

That said, I do think we can play better on offense than we did in that week 11 game, and the Bills are certainly capable of winning this game.
 
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