AFC Playoff Picture 2024

[misterchainsaw]

It's that time again - to look at a way too early playoff picture and who controls their own destiny for playoff spots and home field advantage. As always, all of this is excluding the possibility of ties for (relative) simplicity. This might be the fewest changes in destiny possibilities I've seen in a week - the six loss teams are all multiple weeks out. Cincinnati is in an ok place because they still play Pittsburgh twice and Baltimore once, as well as Denver and the Chargers.

AFTER WEEK 8:
1. Kansas City - 7-0
2. Houston - 6-2 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over Pittsburgh and Buffalo)
3. Pittsburgh - 6-2 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over Buffalo)
4. Buffalo - 6-2
5. Baltimore - 5-3 (Holds strength of victory tiebreaker over Denver)
6. Denver - 5-3
7. LA Chargers - 4-3
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8. Indianapolis - 4-4
9. Cincinnati - 3-5
10. Miami - 2-5
11. Cleveland - 2-6 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over Las Vegas, Jacksonville, and New England)
12. Las Vegas - 2-6 (Holds strength of victory tiebreaker over Jacksonville and New England)
13. Jacksonville - 2-6 (Owns head to head tiebreaker over New England)
14. New England - 2-6 (Holds strength of victory tiebreaker over NY Jets)
15. NY Jets - 2-6
16. Tennessee - 1-6

CONTROL OF DESTINY: Note: Only the highest level (among 1st round bye, division title, and making the playoffs) a team controls their own destiny for will be listed here - if a team controls their own destiny for the first round bye, they also control their own destiny to make the playoffs and win their division). A team controls their own destiny if they obtain a certain spot 100% of the time if they win every game for the rest of the year.

- Kansas City controls their own destiny for the first round bye.
- Houston controls their own destiny for the AFC South
- Pittsburgh controls their own destiny for the AFC North
- Buffalo controls their own destiny for the AFC East
- Baltimore controls their own destiny for the AFC North
- Denver controls their own destiny for a wild card spot
- The LA Chargers control their own destiny for a wild card spot
- Indianapolis controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.
- Cincinnati controls their own destiny for a wild card spot *assuming no ties in other games

POTENTIAL CHANGES OF DESTINY IN WEEK 9:
- Houston can gain control of their own destiny for home field advantage with a win and a KC loss
- Pittsburgh can gain control of their own destiny for home field advantage with a KC loss, and a HOU loss
- Denver can gain control of their own destiny for the AFC West with a win and a KC loss
- Cincinnati can lose control of their own destiny for the wild card with a loss and an LAC win
- Miami can gain control of their own destiny for the wild card with a win, a BAL loss, an LAC loss, an IND loss, and a HOU or KC loss.

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[misterchainsaw]

I think the 7 best teams in the AFC are pretty clearly BUF, BAL, PIT, CIN, HOU, KC, and LAC, but will the AFC North teams survive beating up on each other? Sometimes the best 7 don't make the playoffs, and everyone's still got work to do, obviously. Things do seem remarkably stagnant at the moment though.

WEEK 9
1. Kansas City - 8-0
2. Buffalo - 7-2
3. Pittsburgh - 6-2
4. Houston - 6-3
5. Baltimore - 6-3
6. LA Chargers - 5-3
7. Denver - 5-4
-----------------------------------------
8. Indianapolis - 4-5 (Holds Conference record tiebreaker over CIN)
9. Cincinnati - 4-5
10. NY Jets - 3-6
11. Tennessee - 2-6 (Holds head to head record over MIA)
12. Miami - 2-6
13. Cleveland - 2-7 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over JAX, LV, and NE)
14. Jacksonville - 2-7 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over LV and NE)
15. Las Vegas - 2-7 (Holds strength of victory tiebreaker over NE)
16. New England - 2-7

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Kansas City controls their own destiny for the first round bye.
- Houston controls their own destiny for the AFC South
- Pittsburgh controls their own destiny for the AFC North
- Buffalo controls their own destiny for the AFC East
- Baltimore controls their own destiny for the AFC North
- Denver controls their own destiny for a wild card spot
- The LA Chargers control their own destiny for a wild card spot
- Indianapolis controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.
- Cincinnati controls their own destiny for a wild card spot

POTENTIAL CHANGES OF DESTINY IN WEEK 10:
- Buffalo can gain control of their own destiny for home field advantage with a win, KC loss, and PIT loss
- Pittsburgh can gain control of their own destiny for home field advantage with a win and a KC loss
- Tennessee can gain control of their own destiny for the AFC South with a win and a HOU loss.
- Indianapolis can lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss, and either (1)a DEN win combined with any of a LAC, PIT, or BAL win OR (2)a CIN, LAC, AND PIT win.
- Cincinnati can lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss
- Tennessee can gain control of their own destiny for a wild card with a win and a DEN, BAL, and PIT loss.

NFC Update tomorrow probably

 

[The Note]

I was just looking at the upcoming schedule and things are about to get much tougher for the Steelers. On the road against the ‘Ders this week, then the remaining games are Baltimore x2, Cincy x2, CLE x2, @PHI, vs. KC. That many divisional games down the stretch is rough, even if you don’t think much of Cincy or Cleveland. It’s hard for me to see Baltimore not winning that division still, even though I think Pittsburgh will be a playoff team.

 

[BB88]

I was just looking at the upcoming schedule and things are about to get much tougher for the Steelers. On the road against the ‘Ders this week, then the remaining games are Baltimore x2, Cincy x2, CLE x2, @PHI, vs. KC. That many divisional games down the stretch is rough, even if you don’t think much of Cincy or Cleveland. It’s hard for me to see Baltimore not winning that division still, even though I think Pittsburgh will be a playoff team.

Steelers
Chargers
Bengals

Are the 3 most likeliest WC teams to make it for me.

Steelers have a great record today and tiebreaker against the Jets.
Chargers should be up to 6 wins after this weekend and Burrow should be good enough to pull them to the final spot. Colts/Jets/Denver it’t not pretty competition

 

[I Hart Conor Garland]

Steelers
Chargers
Bengals

Are the 3 most likeliest WC teams to make it for me.

Steelers have a great record today and tiebreaker against the Jets.
Chargers should be up to 6 wins after this weekend and Burrow should be good enough to pull them to the final spot. Colts/Jets/Denver it’t not pretty competition

Even after the loss Thursday I still prefer the chances of Cincinnati making it over Denver. I think I agree with your WC picture.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Kind of turning into a boring conference already. If the Chiefs beat the Bills this week there will be very little drama outside of the AFC North and for the #7 seed (between DEN, IND, CIN, and MIA). Our first elimination scenarios also begin popping up (for home field and AFC West)

WEEK 10:
1. Kansas City - 9-0
2. Buffalo - 8-2
3. Pittsburgh - 7-2
4. Texans - 6-4
5. Baltimore - 7-3
6. Chargers - 6-3
7. Broncos - 5-5
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8. Colts - 4-6 (Holds tiebreaker over CIN via conference record)
9. Bengals - 4-6
10. Miami - 3-6
11. NY Jets - 3-7 (Holds common games tiebreaker over NE)
12. New England - 3-7
13. Cleveland - 2-7 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over TEN and LV)
14. Tennessee - 2-7 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over LV)
15. Las Vegas - 2-7
16. Jacksonville - 2-8

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Kansas City controls their own destiny for the first round bye.
- Buffalo controls their own destiny for the AFC East
- Pittsburgh controls their own destiny for the AFC North
- Houston controls their own destiny for the AFC South
- Baltimore controls their own destiny for the AFC North
- Denver controls their own destiny for a wild card spot
- The LA Chargers control their own destiny for a wild card spot
- Indianapolis controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.

POTENTIAL CHANGES IN CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 11:
- Pittsburgh can gain control of their own destiny for home field advantage with a win and KC loss.
- Baltimore can lose control of their own destiny for the AFC North with a loss
- Indianapolis can lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss
- Cincinnati can gain control of their own destiny for wild card with a win, IND loss, and MIA loss.

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS FOR WEEK 11:
- Las Vegas is eliminated from AFC West contention with a loss and a KC win
- Jacksonville is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a KC win or a loss.
- Las Vegas is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss and a NE loss
- Tennessee is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss and a KC win
- Cleveland is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss and a KC win
- New England is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss and a KC win
- NY Jets are eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss and a KC win

 

[BB88]

Even after the loss Thursday I still prefer the chances of Cincinnati making it over Denver. I think I agree with your WC picture.

Depending on the tiebreakers even 9 wins could be enough for the last one

 

[I Hart Conor Garland]

Depending on the tiebreakers even 9 wins could be enough for the last one

Denver puking that one up to KC doesn't hurt Cinci.

 

[BB88]

Denver puking that one up to KC doesn't hurt Cinci.

Texans can’t be too happy, imagine rolling into round 1 and you draw the Bengals

 

[I Hart Conor Garland]

Texans can’t be too happy, imagine rolling into round 1 and you draw the Bengals

I belive they played one another in the first round back to back years around 2012 or so and I also believe both times this game was put in the early Saturday BLAH slot.

 

[Dubi Doo]

The top-5 looks set.

I think it comes down to Cincy, MIA, LAC, and Denver for those final 2 playoff spots. Here's their remaining schedules:

Denver (Falcons (W), Raiders(W), Browns(W), Colts(W), Chargers(L), Bengals (L), Chiefs(L))
Record: 9-8

Cincy (Chargers (W), Steelers (L), Cowboys (W), Titans (W), Browns(W), Broncos(W), Steelers(W))
Record: 10-7

LAC (Bengals (L), Ravens (L), Falcons (W), Chiefs (L), Bucs (W), Broncos (W), Pats (W), Raiders (W))
Record: 11-6

MIA (Raiders (W), Pats (W), Packers (L), Jets (W), Texans (W), 49ers (L), Browns (W), Jets (L))
Record: 8-9

So, I have it as Chargers at 6 seed and Bengals at 7 seed. It wouldn't surprise me at all if 10 wins is needed to make it this year. God bless any team that draws the Bengals at 7.

 

[StreetHawk]

Feels like chargers are going to get a WC. Right now, Denver and Indy are likely the final 2 in the race. No margin for error for Cincy now. Jets are done. Miami, not sure I’d bet on tua’s health.

 

[Unholy Diver]

I believe the Bills clinch the east this weekend with a win coupled with a Miami loss

 

[PanthersPens62]

I believe the Bills clinch the east this weekend with a win coupled with a Miami loss

Bills are on their bye this week so they can't clinch until next week at the earliest.......which likely will happen since Miami is at Lambeau next Thurs.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Let the race for the top seed ensue. The Chargers are sneakily only 2 back of KC with a game yet to play and if they can manage the season split things could get very interesting in the AFC West too.


WEEK 11: (a - eliminated from top seed contention)
1. Kansas City - 9-1
2. Buffalo - 9-2
3. Pittsburgh - 8-2
4. Houston - 7-4
5. LA Chargers - 7-3
6. Baltimore - 7-4
7. Denver - 6-5
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8. Indianapolis - 5-6 (Holds tiebreaker over CIN via conference record)
9. Miami - 4-6
10. Cincinnati - 4-7
11. NY Jets - 3-8 (Holds common games tiebreaker over NE)
12. New England - 3-8
13. Cleveland - 2-8 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over TEN and LV)
14. Tennessee - 2-8 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over LV)
15. a-Las Vegas - 2-8
16. a-Jacksonville - 2-9

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Kansas City controls their own destiny for the first round bye.
- Pittsburgh controls their own destiny for the first round bye
- Buffalo controls their own destiny for the AFC East
- Houston controls their own destiny for the AFC South
- The LA Chargers control their own destiny for a wild card spot
- Baltimore controls their own destiny for a wild card spot
- Denver controls their own destiny for a wild card spot
- Indianapolis controls their own destiny for a wild card spot

POTENTIAL CHANGES IN CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 12:
- Buffalo can gain control of their own destiny for the #1 seed with a KC and PIT loss
- Pittsburgh can lose control of their own destiny for the #1 seed with a loss
- Miami will gain control of their own destiny for a wild card spot with a win and either (1)a IND and DEN loss or (2)a BAL and HOU loss.
- Denver will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card spot with a loss and a MIA win.
- Indianapolis will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card spot with a loss and a MIA or DEN win.

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS FOR WEEK 12:
- Las Vegas is eliminated from AFC West contention with a loss, LAC win, or KC win.
- Tennessee is eliminated from AFC South contention with a loss
- Cleveland is eliminated from AFC North contention with a loss
- New England is eliminated from AFC East contention with a loss
- Tennessee is eliminated from top seed contention with a PIT win or a KC win.
- Cleveland is eliminated from top seed contention with a KC win OR a BAL+HOU win.
- New England is eliminated from top seed contention with a PIT win, KC win, or a HOU+(DEN or BAL) win
- The NY Jets are eliminated from top seed contention with a PIT win, KC win, or a BAL+HOU win

 

[misterchainsaw]

Tennessee and Cleveland survive the week with upsets over their respective division leaders. I would say there's still 4 teams fighting for the last playoff spot, but it's unlikely at this point that either Baltimore or LA drops far enough to fall into that fray. Although Indy has the alternative way of catching Houston if the Texans fall apart. That would be a very AFC South type thing to happen.


WEEK 12: (a - eliminated from top seed contention, d - eliminated from division contention)
1. Kansas City - 10-1
2. Buffalo - 9-2
3. Pittsburgh - 8-3
4. Houston - 7-5
5. Baltimore - 8-4
6. LA Chargers - 7-4
7. Denver - 6-5
----------------------------------------------------------
8. Miami - 5-6
9. Indianapolis - 5-7
10. Cincinnati - 4-7
11. a - Cleveland - 3-8 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over NYJ and TEN)
12. a - NY Jets - 3-8 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over TEN)
13. a - Tennessee - 3-8
14. d - New England - 3-9
15. a - Jacksonville - 2-9 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over LV)
16. d - Las Vegas - 2-9


CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Kansas City controls their own destiny for the first round bye.
- Buffalo controls their own destiny for the AFC East
- Pittsburgh controls their own destiny for the AFC North.
- Houston controls their own destiny for the AFC South
- The LA Chargers control their own destiny for a wild card spot
- Baltimore controls their own destiny for a wild card spot
- Denver controls their own destiny for a wild card spot

POTENTIAL CHANGES IN CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 13 :
- Kansas City can lose control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a loss and a BUF win
- Buffalo can gain control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a win and a KC loss
- Baltimore can gain control of their own destiny for the AFC North with a win and a PIT loss
- Denver can lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss and a MIA win
- Miami can gain control of their own destiny for a wild card with a win and a DEN loss

CLINCHING SCENARIOS FOR WEEK 13:
- Buffalo will clinch the AFC East with a win and a MIA loss
- Kansas City will clinch a wild card spot with a win and either a MIA or DEN loss.

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS FOR WEEK 13:
- Las Vegas will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss.
- Jacksonville will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss, DEN win, and LAC win.
- New England will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss, LAC win, and any of DEN, HOU, or MIA win.
- Jacksonville will be eliminated from AFC South contention with a loss
- The NY Jets will be eliminated from AFC East contention with a loss or a BUF win
- Cleveland will be eliminated from AFC North contention with a loss or a BAL and PIT win
- Cincinnati will be eliminated from AFC North contention with a loss
- Miami will be eliminated from AFC East contention with a loss and a BUF win
- Denver will be eliminated from AFC West contention with a loss and a KC win
- Indianapolis will be eliminated from top seed consideration with a loss, KC win, or a HOU, PIT, and BAL win.
- Miami will be eliminated from top seed contention with a loss and a KC win.