Adjusted save percentage (regular season, 1956-2022)

[Hockey Outsider]

This thread replaces an older post that I made on adjusted save percentage. (I stopped updating that one in 2009 - time flies). I won't repeat the methodology in detail, but essentially each goalie's save percentage is normalized to an environment where the league average is 90.5%. I also normalize the schedule to 82 games, and 30 shots per sixty minutes (otherwise certain seasons would count for more/less for reasons outside of a goalie's control). This is very close to the 2006-07 season.

Self-criticisms of this method:

• Save percentage is affected - perhaps significantly - by the quality of a goalie's team. Are they playing on a dynasty, protected by three Hall of Fame defenseman and a Selke trophy winner? Or are they playing on an expansion team, full of castaways? We now know that there's a significant difference in save percentage at even strength compared to while shorthanded - goalies on teams that are disciplined will have an advantage.
• Save percentage is, by definition, an average. Like points per game, it tends to decline over time. A goalie who retires at (or shortly after) his peak will have an advantage relative to others who play long, full careers. (This is why I also present a statistic for "best seven years", to try to remove this distortion).
• Save percentage doesn't take into account how important or "clutch" a save is. A stop in overtime and a stop during a 7-0 blowout count as the same.
• Save percentage doesn't take into account consistency. One goalie might stop 28 out of 30 shots every game, while another might allow four goals on half the nights, and get a shutout on the others. I suspect (but can't prove) that the first goalie would be more valuable over the long run, even if their save percentage is the same.
• Save percentage doesn't take into account goalie skills other than stopping the puck. For example, puckhandling is completely ignored. So are intangibles such as a team being willing to take more risks and (hopefully) generate more offense, since they have confidence in their goalie.
• As I'll discuss in more detail below, what's average changes significantly from year to year. For example, in 1959-60, 82% of the minutes played league-wide was from a Hall of Fame. In that year, multiple Hall of Famers were below average. Twenty years later (1979-80), only three Hall of Famers appeared in as little as 40 games. Due to expansion, the average quality of a goalie in 1979-80 was likely much lower than it was twenty years before - but both seasons are adjusted to the same scoring environment.
• I rarely add a disclaimer relating to one specific player, but in this case I think it's warranted. Terry Sawchuk's numbers are, frankly, a huge disappointment. But this excludes his five year prime, where he was the first- or second-team all-star five seasons in a row. Keep that in mind when reviewing his numbers.

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TABLE 1 - CAREER SAVE PERCENTAGE (1956-2022)

Player	Min	SA	Saves	Sv%
Ken Dryden*	24,105	11,301	10,559	93.4%​
Dominik Hasek*	44,465	22,090	20,434	92.5%​
Tony Esposito*	54,387	27,782	25,613	92.2%​
Patrick Roy*	62,369	30,475	28,036	92.0%​
Bernie Parent*	37,214	18,100	16,650	92.0%​
Johnny Bower*	31,983	16,202	14,885	91.9%​
Billy Smith*	39,460	19,617	17,988	91.7%​
Glenn Resch	33,023	16,442	15,066	91.6%​
Jacques Plante*	51,842	24,846	22,758	91.6%​
Tim Thomas	24,448	13,037	11,932	91.5%​
Pete Peeters	28,397	12,737	11,644	91.4%​
Andrei Vasilevskiy	23,097	11,595	10,598	91.4%​
Tuukka Rask	34,952	16,754	15,312	91.4%​
Roberto Luongo	60,726	32,259	29,480	91.4%​
Glenn Hall*	61,347	29,793	27,213	91.3%​
Don Edwards	26,797	13,100	11,965	91.3%​
Tomas Vokoun	40,424	21,541	19,670	91.3%​
John Vanbiesbrouck	52,351	26,207	23,927	91.3%​
Ben Bishop	24,634	12,024	10,974	91.3%​
Henrik Lundqvist	53,916	26,755	24,409	91.2%​
Dan Bouchard	38,978	19,112	17,435	91.2%​
Guy Hebert	29,289	15,905	14,508	91.2%​
Reggie Lemelin	28,584	14,100	12,858	91.2%​
Mike Palmateer	20,586	10,904	9,943	91.2%​
Ed Belfour*	57,444	26,554	24,203	91.1%​
Kelly Hrudey	39,839	21,428	19,530	91.1%​
Doug Favell	21,789	11,767	10,722	91.1%​
Denis Herron	26,221	14,567	13,271	91.1%​
Andy Moog	41,852	20,260	18,457	91.1%​
Daren Puppa	25,373	12,592	11,471	91.1%​
Connor Hellebuyck	23,682	12,237	11,144	91.1%​
Gump Worsley*	49,640	26,383	24,024	91.1%​
Robin Lehner	21,991	11,711	10,664	91.1%​
Curtis Joseph	55,370	28,577	26,022	91.1%​
Glen Hanlon	26,624	13,717	12,490	91.1%​
Martin Brodeur*	77,173	34,261	31,192	91.0%​
Cory Schneider	24,648	12,209	11,114	91.0%​
Corey Crawford	29,769	14,711	13,390	91.0%​
Mike Liut	39,049	19,221	17,493	91.0%​
Manny Legace	20,140	9,598	8,731	91.0%​
Sergei Bobrovsky	36,971	18,691	17,001	91.0%​
Jean-Sebastien Giguere	34,360	17,413	15,838	91.0%​
Ron Hextall	36,280	17,287	15,720	90.9%​
Carey Price	44,874	22,397	20,366	90.9%​
Mike Richter	39,612	20,814	18,924	90.9%​
Pekka Rinne	42,093	20,496	18,633	90.9%​
Tom Barrasso	44,707	22,746	20,676	90.9%​
Frederik Andersen	26,844	13,517	12,287	90.9%​
Semyon Varlamov	34,873	18,192	16,534	90.9%​
Sean Burke	48,252	25,236	22,932	90.9%​
Pat Riggin	20,324	9,508	8,640	90.9%​
Jaroslav Halak	33,245	16,241	14,757	90.9%​
Rick Wamsley	23,668	11,006	9,999	90.8%​
Cam Talbot	23,875	12,094	10,986	90.8%​
Niklas Backstrom	25,158	12,385	11,249	90.8%​
Ryan Miller	48,391	25,236	22,920	90.8%​
John Gibson	23,129	11,759	10,680	90.8%​
Felix Potvin	38,130	19,509	17,715	90.8%​
Jon Casey	24,072	11,552	10,488	90.8%​
Marc-Andre Fleury	57,196	28,146	25,547	90.8%​
Bob Essensa	24,247	12,396	11,251	90.8%​
Evgeni Nabokov	41,905	20,067	18,211	90.7%​
Miikka Kiprusoff	37,121	18,032	16,363	90.7%​
Martin Biron	28,852	14,704	13,340	90.7%​
Braden Holtby	31,941	16,163	14,662	90.7%​
Jeff Hackett	28,396	14,690	13,325	90.7%​
Don Beaupre	39,400	19,723	17,890	90.7%​
Rogie Vachon*	48,315	22,707	20,595	90.7%​
Jonas Hiller	23,662	11,877	10,771	90.7%​
Marty Turco	30,957	13,948	12,648	90.7%​
James Reimer	25,749	13,703	12,422	90.7%​
Craig Anderson	40,139	21,649	19,621	90.6%​
Kari Lehtonen	38,245	19,952	18,082	90.6%​
Cesare Maniago	34,660	18,489	16,754	90.6%​
Ilya Bryzgalov	28,178	14,014	12,697	90.6%​
Mike Dunham	21,653	11,560	10,472	90.6%​
Mike Smith	40,873	20,905	18,934	90.6%​
Jose Theodore	37,150	19,172	17,364	90.6%​
Devan Dubnyk	34,847	17,635	15,970	90.6%​
Olaf Kolzig	42,180	21,693	19,643	90.6%​
Jacob Markstrom	24,113	12,025	10,889	90.5%​
Jimmy Howard	32,725	16,235	14,699	90.5%​
Nikolai Khabibulin	47,042	24,182	21,893	90.5%​
Jonathan Bernier	23,693	12,407	11,233	90.5%​
Jonathan Quick	44,026	20,204	18,291	90.5%​
Stephane Fiset	23,045	12,228	11,070	90.5%​
Gerry Cheevers*	25,882	12,193	11,036	90.5%​
Dwayne Roloson	34,297	17,615	15,941	90.5%​
Ed Giacomin*	38,414	17,759	16,069	90.5%​
Chris Osgood	43,281	20,053	18,144	90.5%​
Chris Terreri	22,989	11,069	10,015	90.5%​
Gilles Meloche	46,706	24,376	22,053	90.5%​
Jake Allen	21,347	10,218	9,244	90.5%​
Grant Fuhr*	50,119	25,187	22,783	90.5%​
Jocelyn Thibault	33,493	16,995	15,372	90.5%​
Antti Niemi	28,093	13,718	12,407	90.4%​
Tommy Salo	30,690	14,832	13,401	90.3%​
Byron Dafoe	23,605	11,749	10,614	90.3%​
Bruce Gamble	20,523	11,095	10,023	90.3%​
Bob Sauve	24,254	11,245	10,157	90.3%​
Steve Mason	27,719	14,090	12,725	90.3%​
Trevor Kidd	23,135	11,693	10,561	90.3%​
Roger Crozier	31,600	15,680	14,161	90.3%​
Brian Elliott	30,763	14,387	12,991	90.3%​
Ron Tugnutt	29,863	15,075	13,611	90.3%​
Patrick Lalime	25,241	12,064	10,892	90.3%​
Arturs Irbe	33,375	16,589	14,975	90.3%​
Mike Vernon	46,128	21,228	19,160	90.3%​
Charlie Hodge	22,470	10,311	9,304	90.2%​
Glenn Healy	25,079	12,620	11,387	90.2%​
Cam Ward	40,976	20,617	18,600	90.2%​
Terry Sawchuk*	42,551	20,631	18,609	90.2%​
Richard Brodeur	22,450	11,138	10,041	90.1%​
Ken Wregget	33,546	17,951	16,179	90.1%​
Greg Millen	36,181	18,318	16,504	90.1%​
Brian Hayward	20,446	10,000	9,009	90.1%​
Gilles Gilbert	24,385	11,247	10,129	90.1%​
Martin Jones	23,966	11,373	10,243	90.1%​
Bill Ranford	37,668	19,440	17,506	90.0%​
Kirk McLean	36,938	18,168	16,352	90.0%​
Gary Smith	31,086	16,004	14,400	90.0%​
Phil Myre	26,023	13,068	11,756	90.0%​
Peter Budaj	20,681	9,767	8,784	89.9%​
Ondrej Pavelec	24,110	12,556	11,288	89.9%​
Tim Cheveldae	20,376	10,191	9,147	89.8%​
Johan Hedberg	21,543	10,682	9,578	89.7%​
Eddie Johnston	37,558	18,691	16,754	89.6%​
Jim Rutherford	26,737	13,320	11,899	89.3%​
Ron Low	21,038	11,361	10,100	88.9%​

This table lists all 129 goalies who have faced at least 20,000 (adjusted) minutes from 1955-56 to present. That's the equivalent of around 330 games.

Ken Dryden is in first place by a comfortable margin. But keep in mind the disclaimer I gave before. Dryden played on arguably the best team of all-time (which probably helped his numbers), and he retired during his prime (which definitely helped his numbers - as his career-average save percentage doesn't reflect any declines).

I still see people directly compare Dominik Hasek's numbers to Patrick Roy's, without taking into account the scoring environments. Roy played the first half of his career in a much higher-scoring league, and that resulted in a deflated save percentage. Hasek is still ahead, but it's much closer than the raw numbers suggest.

Tony Esposito performs extremely well here. His playoff struggles are well-known (and overstated, more often than not). But he was an exceptional regular season goalie, performing well above the league average for extended periods of time.

NOTE - this commentary was written in 2018 but I'm not updating it each year going forward.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

TABLE 2 - GOALS VERSUS AVERAGE - CAREER

Player	GVA
Tony Esposito*	470.3
Patrick Roy*	456.2
Dominik Hasek*	442.2
Ken Dryden*	331.2
Roberto Luongo	285.4
Jacques Plante*	272.4
Bernie Parent*	269.0
Glenn Hall*	250.8
Billy Smith*	234.9
Johnny Bower*	222.0
John Vanbiesbrouck	210.2
Henrik Lundqvist	195.5
Glenn Resch	186.0
Martin Brodeur*	185.3
Tomas Vokoun	176.1
Ed Belfour*	171.2
Curtis Joseph	159.6
Tuukka Rask	149.1
Gump Worsley*	147.6
Dan Bouchard	138.3
Kelly Hrudey	137.8
Tim Thomas	134.0
Andy Moog	122.3
Pete Peeters	116.8
Guy Hebert	114.6
Don Edwards	109.1
Andrei Vasilevskiy	104.8
Mike Liut	98.3
Reggie Lemelin	97.7
Carey Price	96.2
Sean Burke	93.5
Ben Bishop	92.8
Tom Barrasso	91.3
Denis Herron	88.4
Mike Richter	86.6
Sergei Bobrovsky	85.5
Pekka Rinne	84.4
Ryan Miller	81.8
Jean-Sebastien Giguere	79.0
Glen Hanlon	75.9
Corey Crawford	75.8
Marc-Andre Fleury	75.1
Daren Puppa	75.0
Ron Hextall	74.9
Mike Palmateer	74.6
Doug Favell	72.6
Semyon Varlamov	70.6
Connor Hellebuyck	69.2
Robin Lehner	65.5
Cory Schneider	64.3
Felix Potvin	59.6
Jaroslav Halak	59.1
Frederik Andersen	53.6
Evgeni Nabokov	49.9
Rogie Vachon*	44.9
Manny Legace	44.8
Miikka Kiprusoff	44.4
Cam Talbot	41.4
Niklas Backstrom	40.3
Don Beaupre	39.9
Rick Wamsley	38.4
John Gibson	37.6
Pat Riggin	35.2
Braden Holtby	34.6
Jon Casey	33.8
Martin Biron	33.5
Bob Essensa	32.5
Jeff Hackett	30.7
Craig Anderson	28.6
Kari Lehtonen	25.4
Marty Turco	25.0
Jonas Hiller	22.8
James Reimer	21.2
Cesare Maniago	21.1
Mike Smith	15.3
Ilya Bryzgalov	14.4
Jose Theodore	13.3
Olaf Kolzig	11.1
Devan Dubnyk	10.8
Mike Dunham	10.2
Nikolai Khabibulin	8.4
Jonathan Quick	6.3
Jacob Markstrom	5.9
Jimmy Howard	5.9
Jonathan Bernier	4.1
Stephane Fiset	3.3
Gerry Cheevers*	1.2
Dwayne Roloson	(0.0)
Chris Terreri	(2.8)
Ed Giacomin*	(3.2)
Jake Allen	(3.3)
Chris Osgood	(3.8)
Gilles Meloche	(7.3)
Antti Niemi	(7.9)
Jocelyn Thibault	(8.0)
Grant Fuhr*	(10.8)
Bruce Gamble	(18.3)
Byron Dafoe	(18.9)
Bob Sauve	(19.5)
Trevor Kidd	(21.8)
Tommy Salo	(22.4)
Patrick Lalime	(25.9)
Steve Mason	(26.2)
Charlie Hodge	(27.3)
Brian Elliott	(29.5)
Roger Crozier	(30.1)
Ron Tugnutt	(32.0)
Glenn Healy	(33.6)
Arturs Irbe	(38.6)
Richard Brodeur	(39.1)
Brian Hayward	(40.5)
Gilles Gilbert	(49.3)
Martin Jones	(49.9)
Mike Vernon	(50.8)
Peter Budaj	(55.1)
Cam Ward	(57.9)
Terry Sawchuk*	(61.9)
Ken Wregget	(66.6)
Phil Myre	(70.4)
Greg Millen	(73.9)
Ondrej Pavelec	(76.1)
Tim Cheveldae	(76.3)
Gary Smith	(83.5)
Bill Ranford	(87.6)
Johan Hedberg	(89.0)
Kirk McLean	(89.5)
Jim Rutherford	(155.6)
Eddie Johnston	(161.3)
Ron Low	(181.4)

Goals versus average is a statistic that compares the number of goals each goalie saves/allows, relative to the league average. The nice thing about this statistic is it's designed so that in each season, the total for the league always equals zero. (For the goalies making saves above the league average rate, there are others making saves at below the league average).

Once again, all 129 goalies who have faced at least 20,000 (adjusted) minutes are presented here. For the most part, the results are as expected.

Keep in mind that a player performing at around the league average for an extended period of time is going to have a score of around zero. For example, Chris Osgood was, for the most part, a very average netminder, but he played in close to 750 games. There's clearly value in being an average goalie for long periods of time - we'll see this in the next table I present.

I figured he'd be in the top ten, but I was surprised to see Tony Esposito rank first. Other than that, the top of the list is fairly close to how I would have imagined it.

Terry Sawchuk is near the bottom of the list. There's no question that from 1956 onwards, he wasn't a great goalie. But, as I said in my first post, this ignores his five-year peak, which many claim is one of the best peaks in goalie history.

NOTE - this commentary was written in 2018 but I'm not updating it each year going forward.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

TABLE 3 - GOALS VERSUS THRESHOLD - CAREER

Player	GVT
Patrick Roy*	1,145.7
Tony Esposito*	1,098.9
Roberto Luongo	1,015.3
Martin Brodeur*	960.5
Dominik Hasek*	942.0
Glenn Hall*	924.9
Jacques Plante*	834.5
Curtis Joseph	806.1
John Vanbiesbrouck	803.1
Henrik Lundqvist	800.8
Ed Belfour*	772.0
Gump Worsley*	744.5
Marc-Andre Fleury	711.9
Billy Smith*	678.7
Bernie Parent*	678.5
Sean Burke	664.4
Tomas Vokoun	663.5
Ryan Miller	652.8
Kelly Hrudey	622.7
Tom Barrasso	605.9
Carey Price	602.9
Johnny Bower*	588.5
Ken Dryden*	586.9
Andy Moog	580.7
Dan Bouchard	570.7
Grant Fuhr*	559.1
Rogie Vachon*	558.6
Glenn Resch	558.0
Mike Richter	557.6
Nikolai Khabibulin	555.5
Pekka Rinne	548.1
Gilles Meloche	544.2
Mike Liut	533.2
Tuukka Rask	528.2
Craig Anderson	518.4
Sergei Bobrovsky	508.4
Evgeni Nabokov	503.9
Olaf Kolzig	501.9
Felix Potvin	501.0
Mike Smith	488.3
Don Beaupre	486.1
Semyon Varlamov	482.2
Kari Lehtonen	476.8
Guy Hebert	474.4
Jean-Sebastien Giguere	473.0
Ron Hextall	466.0
Jonathan Quick	463.4
Miikka Kiprusoff	452.3
Chris Osgood	449.9
Jose Theodore	447.0
Cesare Maniago	439.4
Mike Vernon	429.5
Tim Thomas	429.0
Jaroslav Halak	426.5
Denis Herron	418.0
Reggie Lemelin	416.7
Devan Dubnyk	409.8
Corey Crawford	408.7
Cam Ward	408.5
Don Edwards	405.4
Pete Peeters	405.0
Terry Sawchuk*	404.9
Braden Holtby	400.3
Ed Giacomin*	398.6
Dwayne Roloson	398.5
Glen Hanlon	386.3
Jocelyn Thibault	376.5
Jimmy Howard	373.2
Andrei Vasilevskiy	367.1
Martin Biron	366.2
Ben Bishop	364.9
Jeff Hackett	363.0
Daren Puppa	359.9
Frederik Andersen	359.5
Bill Ranford	352.3
Connor Hellebuyck	346.0
Marty Turco	340.6
Cory Schneider	340.5
Greg Millen	340.5
Ken Wregget	339.6
Doug Favell	338.9
Arturs Irbe	336.7
Ilya Bryzgalov	331.4
James Reimer	331.2
Robin Lehner	330.4
Roger Crozier	324.7
Kirk McLean	321.5
Mike Palmateer	321.3
Niklas Backstrom	320.5
Cam Talbot	315.0
Tommy Salo	313.2
Bob Essensa	312.9
Ron Tugnutt	309.1
John Gibson	303.6
Antti Niemi	302.5
Brian Elliott	296.0
Jon Casey	295.2
Steve Mason	292.6
Jonas Hiller	291.5
Rick Wamsley	287.4
Jonathan Bernier	284.8
Stephane Fiset	279.9
Gary Smith	278.6
Jacob Markstrom	278.0
Gerry Cheevers*	277.1
Mike Dunham	271.7
Manny Legace	262.0
Eddie Johnston	261.6
Glenn Healy	251.9
Pat Riggin	250.3
Chris Terreri	247.6
Patrick Lalime	247.0
Byron Dafoe	247.0
Trevor Kidd	242.8
Bob Sauve	234.9
Bruce Gamble	232.7
Jake Allen	227.9
Phil Myre	225.3
Richard Brodeur	212.9
Ondrej Pavelec	208.0
Martin Jones	207.4
Charlie Hodge	206.0
Gilles Gilbert	205.2
Brian Hayward	185.7
Peter Budaj	165.8
Tim Cheveldae	154.3
Johan Hedberg	152.7
Jim Rutherford	145.8
Ron Low	75.6

Goals versus threshold compares the number of goals each goalie saves/allows, relative to a theoretical borderline NHLer. I've arbitrarily set the threshold save percentage in each season at 97.5% of the league average. This isn't scientific, but it looks about right. The theory is any goalie who's about 97.5% as good as the league average is just below the cusp of being an NHL player. If they're playing in the NHL, they're most likely a prospect who the team is trying to develop; an old veteran with an expensive contract; or an injury replacement. Since there are plenty of goalies in the minor leagues who are roughly at this level, a GM should be able to get a netminder of this quality for minimal consideration.

The reason I like this statistic is it shows that there's value in being an average (or even below-average) goalie. Even a below-average goalie has value in the sense that the coach isn't force to play someone who isn't even NHL calibre.

This statistic tends to reward players with longer career. Ken Dryden dominated the first two tables, but he fares much worse here.

Martin Brodeur, who spent a long stretch of his career stopping the puck at close to league average level, skyrockets to 4th place, as there was significant value in him playing so many games, even if it was at a lower level than, say, Dryden or Hasek.

Henrik Lundqvist - a remarkably consistent, dependable goalie - ranks particularly well here. He's in 10th place, just above Ed Belfour, which feels about right (at least when looking at the regular season).

NOTE - this commentary was written in 2018 but I'm not updating it each year going forward.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

TABLE 4 - PEAK SAVE PERCENTAGE (1956-2022)

Player	Adj Sv%
Ken Dryden*	93.4%​
Dominik Hasek*	93.2%​
Tony Esposito*	92.9%​
Patrick Roy*	92.9%​
Bernie Parent*	92.6%​
Glenn Resch	92.3%​
John Vanbiesbrouck	92.2%​
Jacques Plante*	92.1%​
Ed Belfour*	92.0%​
Roberto Luongo	92.0%​
Dan Bouchard	91.9%​
Martin Brodeur*	91.9%​
Glenn Hall*	91.9%​
Tom Barrasso	91.9%​
Curtis Joseph	91.8%​
Johnny Bower*	91.8%​
Tomas Vokoun	91.8%​
Henrik Lundqvist	91.7%​
Tuukka Rask	91.7%​
Rogie Vachon*	91.7%​
Sean Burke	91.7%​
Kelly Hrudey	91.7%​
Andy Moog	91.7%​
Carey Price	91.5%​
Pekka Rinne	91.5%​
Mike Liut	91.5%​
Sergei Bobrovsky	91.5%​
Tim Thomas	91.5%​
Ron Hextall	91.5%​
Guy Hebert	91.4%​
Cesare Maniago	91.4%​
Grant Fuhr*	91.3%​
Jean-Sebastien Giguere	91.3%​
Marc-Andre Fleury	91.3%​
Gump Worsley*	91.3%​
Ryan Miller	91.3%​
Semyon Varlamov	91.3%​
Nikolai Khabibulin	91.3%​
Evgeni Nabokov	91.3%​
Felix Potvin	91.2%​
Corey Crawford	91.2%​
Dwayne Roloson	91.2%​
Don Beaupre	91.2%​
Gilles Meloche	91.2%​
Devan Dubnyk	91.2%​
Jose Theodore	91.2%​
Jonathan Quick	91.1%​
Mike Smith	91.1%​
Ed Giacomin*	91.1%​
Mike Richter	91.0%​
Olaf Kolzig	91.0%​
Craig Anderson	91.0%​
Kari Lehtonen	91.0%​
Braden Holtby	91.0%​
Miikka Kiprusoff	91.0%​
Chris Osgood	91.0%​
Mike Vernon	91.0%​
Gerry Cheevers*	90.9%​
Jonas Hiller	90.8%​
Jimmy Howard	90.8%​
Kirk McLean	90.7%​
Marty Turco	90.7%​
Cam Ward	90.7%​
Jocelyn Thibault	90.6%​
Tommy Salo	90.5%​
Steve Mason	90.5%​
Greg Millen	90.4%​
Terry Sawchuk*	90.3%​
Bill Ranford	90.2%​

As I mentioned before, save percentage is a career average, and therefore it can be significantly distorted when comparing players who had careers of significantly different lengths. To adjust for this, the next three tables are based on a goalie's seven best years. (There's no magic to seven, but I figured it's long enough to capture a goalie's prime, without falling into their declining years).

In order to qualify, the goalie needed to play 2,400 (adjusted) minutes, otherwise the season is excluded entirely. As an example, Miika Kiprusoff's brilliant 2004 campaign fell just below this threshold, so it's ignored. After filtering out the short seasons, save percentage is re-calculated as a weighted average. Only the 69 goalies with enough seasons to qualify are presented here.

Remember what I said before about Dryden's career being all peak? Peak versus peak, Dryden is still in the lead, but it's very close between him and Hasek.

Bernie Parent, with a fairly short but very high peak, moves into 5th place. If I used a shorter time frame (top three or top five years), he'd rank even higher.

NOTE - this commentary was written in 2018 but I'm not updating it each year going forward.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

TABLE 5 - GOALS VERSUS AVERAGE - PEAK (top 100)

Dominik Hasek*	369.3
Tony Esposito*	325.1
Ken Dryden*	319.9
Patrick Roy*	274.4
Bernie Parent*	244.4
Jacques Plante*	241.2
Roberto Luongo	210.1
Glenn Resch	208.4
Glenn Hall*	200.2
Curtis Joseph	198.8
Billy Smith*	198.6
John Vanbiesbrouck	194.1
Johnny Bower*	189.6
Martin Brodeur*	186.2
Ed Belfour*	183.3
Tomas Vokoun	169.3
Henrik Lundqvist	167.7
Kelly Hrudey	152.8
Dan Bouchard	150.8
Tom Barrasso	150.0
Sean Burke	146.9
Tim Thomas	143.2
Mike Liut	139.2
Tuukka Rask	137.6
Don Edwards	136.6
Rogie Vachon*	135.6
Denis Herron	134.8
Carey Price	134.7
Gump Worsley*	132.2
Guy Hebert	131.8
Mike Richter	130.7
Andy Moog	130.7
Miikka Kiprusoff	128.4
Pete Peeters	125.3
Reggie Lemelin	124.9
Pekka Rinne	124.5
Sergei Bobrovsky	121.0
Grant Fuhr*	118.3
Don Beaupre	116.5
Ron Hextall	115.3
Doug Favell	112.4
Jean-Sebastien Giguere	111.5
Roland Melanson	110.3
Ryan Miller	109.1
Andrei Vasilevskiy	107.8
Felix Potvin	107.7
Daren Puppa	106.8
Craig Anderson	105.0
Gilles Meloche	104.4
Glen Hanlon	103.6
Semyon Varlamov	102.2
Ben Bishop	101.9
Nikolai Khabibulin	101.2
Mike Palmateer	100.3
Cory Schneider	98.2
Jose Theodore	97.1
Marc-Andre Fleury	96.7
Olaf Kolzig	95.4
Bob Froese	94.8
Evgeni Nabokov	93.9
Jeff Hackett	90.1
Cesare Maniago	90.0
Manny Fernandez	89.2
Corey Crawford	88.2
Dwayne Roloson	86.4
Mike Smith	84.4
Robin Lehner	84.1
Devan Dubnyk	83.6
Bob Essensa	80.9
Jon Casey	79.0
Rick Wamsley	78.4
Juuse Saros	77.7
Braden Holtby	77.4
Jaroslav Halak	76.2
Jonathan Quick	74.2
Ed Giacomin*	74.1
Niklas Backstrom	73.9
Darcy Kuemper	73.8
Clint Malarchuk	70.7
Marty Turco	70.3
Connor Hellebuyck	69.2
Cam Talbot	67.4
Kari Lehtonen	67.0
Frederik Andersen	66.3
Igor Shesterkin	65.4
Jimmy Howard	65.3
Mark Fitzpatrick	64.7
Roman Cechmanek	63.5
Ilya Bryzgalov	63.2
Anton Khudobin	62.2
Gerry Cheevers*	61.9
Manny Legace	61.8
Philipp Grubauer	60.7
Mike Vernon	60.4
Chris Osgood	59.8
Martin Biron	59.3
Bruce Gamble	58.2
Murray Bannerman	57.5
Pelle Lindbergh	56.3
Antti Raanta	55.6

Under this method, Hasek clearly had the best peak in NHL history (dating back to 1956 anyway). It's a combination of his high level of play relative to the average goalie, combined with a solid workload.

NOTE - this commentary was written in 2018 but I'm not updating it each year going forward.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

TABLE 6 - GOALS VERSUS THRESHOLD - PEAK (top 100)

Dominik Hasek*	691.5
Tony Esposito*	650.1
Ken Dryden*	570.9
Glenn Hall*	565.0
Patrick Roy*	546.6
Roberto Luongo	546.4
Jacques Plante*	536.9
Curtis Joseph	526.2
Bernie Parent*	517.6
Martin Brodeur*	487.7
Henrik Lundqvist	472.8
Tomas Vokoun	469.2
Ed Belfour*	464.9
Gump Worsley*	461.9
Johnny Bower*	460.2
John Vanbiesbrouck	452.5
Carey Price	426.0
Sean Burke	425.3
Kelly Hrudey	418.2
Guy Hebert	418.0
Miikka Kiprusoff	416.6
Glenn Resch	415.7
Felix Potvin	411.5
Rogie Vachon*	410.9
Ryan Miller	407.4
Pekka Rinne	405.0
Mike Liut	403.1
Tim Thomas	402.8
Olaf Kolzig	401.8
Tom Barrasso	400.2
Sergei Bobrovsky	397.8
Billy Smith*	397.2
Dan Bouchard	386.1
Tuukka Rask	385.0
Grant Fuhr*	380.2
Mike Richter	378.6
Evgeni Nabokov	377.9
Ron Hextall	372.7
Nikolai Khabibulin	372.4
Don Edwards	364.4
Jean-Sebastien Giguere	363.1
Denis Herron	362.9
Devan Dubnyk	359.2
Marc-Andre Fleury	356.7
Andrei Vasilevskiy	356.2
Jose Theodore	354.9
Kari Lehtonen	354.3
Semyon Varlamov	350.6
Connor Hellebuyck	346.0
Ed Giacomin*	342.2
Andy Moog	341.5
Braden Holtby	339.9
Mike Smith	338.6
Ben Bishop	338.4
Jonathan Quick	338.4
Dwayne Roloson	334.0
Craig Anderson	333.5
Gilles Meloche	332.0
Corey Crawford	329.2
Mike Palmateer	324.4
Frederik Andersen	323.9
Cesare Maniago	323.7
Reggie Lemelin	321.9
Niklas Backstrom	319.3
Daren Puppa	318.4
Arturs Irbe	317.6
Doug Favell	314.6
Don Beaupre	314.6
Jeff Hackett	309.5
Cory Schneider	308.8
Cam Ward	308.4
Jimmy Howard	307.7
Ilya Bryzgalov	303.6
Martin Biron	299.2
Glen Hanlon	297.1
Tommy Salo	296.7
Chris Osgood	294.4
Bill Ranford	294.1
Pete Peeters	292.6
Mike Vernon	291.8
Terry Sawchuk*	291.8
Jocelyn Thibault	290.5
Marty Turco	288.4
Antti Niemi	288.1
Kirk McLean	284.3
John Gibson	283.1
Cam Talbot	282.6
Jon Casey	280.0
Jonas Hiller	275.3
Roger Crozier	275.2
Jaroslav Halak	273.5
Bob Essensa	273.1
Robin Lehner	272.1
Clint Malarchuk	265.4
Steve Mason	265.2
Jacob Markstrom	264.6
Manny Fernandez	263.7
Byron Dafoe	256.1
James Reimer	253.6
Mike Dunham	252.3

Not a huge difference compared to the previous table. Generally the players who rank higher here tend to be workhorses (Roberto Luongo, Olaf Kolzig, Miikka Kiprusoff) and thus are able to put more distance between themselves and the theoretical threshold/marginal goalie.

NOTE - this commentary was written in 2018 but I'm not updating it each year going forward.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

TABLE 8 - COMPARISON OF VEZINA WINNER AND LEADER IN GVA OR GVT

Year	Trophy	GVA	GVT
1955-56	Jacques Plante*	Jacques Plante*	Gump Worsley*
1956-57	Glenn Hall*	Glenn Hall*	Glenn Hall*
1957-58	Glenn Hall*	Jacques Plante*	Jacques Plante*
1958-59	Jacques Plante*	Jacques Plante*	Jacques Plante*
1959-60	Glenn Hall*	Johnny Bower*	Johnny Bower*
1960-61	Johnny Bower*	Johnny Bower*	Glenn Hall*
1961-62	Jacques Plante*	Jacques Plante*	Jacques Plante*
1962-63	Glenn Hall*	Glenn Hall*	Gump Worsley*
1963-64	Glenn Hall*	Glenn Hall*	Glenn Hall*
1964-65	Roger Crozier	Glenn Hall*	Roger Crozier
1965-66	Glenn Hall*	Johnny Bower*	Glenn Hall*
1966-67	Ed Giacomin*	Denis DeJordy	Ed Giacomin*
1967-68	Gump Worsley*	Bruce Gamble	Bruce Gamble
1968-69	Glenn Hall*	Jacques Plante*	Bernie Parent*
1969-70	Tony Esposito*	Tony Esposito*	Tony Esposito*
1970-71	Ed Giacomin*	Jacques Plante*	Jacques Plante*
1971-72	Tony Esposito*	Ken Dryden*	Ken Dryden*
1972-73	Ken Dryden*	Ken Dryden*	Ken Dryden*
1973-74	Bernie Parent*	Bernie Parent*	Bernie Parent*
1974-75	Bernie Parent*	Rogie Vachon*	Rogie Vachon*
1975-76	Ken Dryden*	Ken Dryden*	Ken Dryden*
1976-77	Ken Dryden*	Ken Dryden*	Tony Esposito*
1977-78	Ken Dryden*	Tony Esposito*	Tony Esposito*
1978-79	Ken Dryden*	Mike Palmateer	Mike Palmateer
1979-80	Tony Esposito*	Tony Esposito*	Tony Esposito*
1980-81	Mike Liut	Mike Liut	Tony Esposito*
1981-82	Billy Smith*	Grant Fuhr*	Grant Fuhr*
1982-83	Pete Peeters	Pete Peeters	Pete Peeters
1983-84	Tom Barrasso	Roland Melanson	Murray Bannerman
1984-85	Pelle Lindbergh	Pelle Lindbergh	Pelle Lindbergh
1985-86	John Vanbiesbrouck	Kelly Hrudey	Kelly Hrudey
1986-87	Ron Hextall	Ron Hextall	Ron Hextall
1987-88	Grant Fuhr*	Tom Barrasso	Tom Barrasso
1988-89	Patrick Roy*	Patrick Roy*	Jon Casey
1989-90	Patrick Roy*	Patrick Roy*	Patrick Roy*
1990-91	Ed Belfour*	Ed Belfour*	Ed Belfour*
1991-92	Patrick Roy*	Patrick Roy*	Patrick Roy*
1992-93	Ed Belfour*	Curtis Joseph	Curtis Joseph
1993-94	Dominik Hasek*	John Vanbiesbrouck	John Vanbiesbrouck
1994-95	Dominik Hasek*	Dominik Hasek*	Dominik Hasek*
1995-96	Jim Carey	Dominik Hasek*	Dominik Hasek*
1996-97	Dominik Hasek*	Dominik Hasek*	Dominik Hasek*
1997-98	Dominik Hasek*	Dominik Hasek*	Dominik Hasek*
1998-99	Dominik Hasek*	Dominik Hasek*	Dominik Hasek*
1999-00	Olaf Kolzig	Olaf Kolzig	Olaf Kolzig
2000-01	Dominik Hasek*	Sean Burke	Sean Burke
2001-02	Jose Theodore	Jose Theodore	Jose Theodore
2002-03	Martin Brodeur*	Marty Turco	Ed Belfour*
2003-04	Martin Brodeur*	Roberto Luongo	Roberto Luongo
2005-06	Miikka Kiprusoff	Miikka Kiprusoff	Roberto Luongo
2006-07	Martin Brodeur*	Martin Brodeur*	Martin Brodeur*
2007-08	Martin Brodeur*	Martin Brodeur*	Tomas Vokoun
2008-09	Tim Thomas	Tim Thomas	Tim Thomas
2009-10	Ryan Miller	Ryan Miller	Ryan Miller
2010-11	Tim Thomas	Tim Thomas	Tim Thomas
2011-12	Henrik Lundqvist	Mike Smith	Mike Smith
2012-13	Sergei Bobrovsky	Sergei Bobrovsky	Sergei Bobrovsky
2013-14	Tuukka Rask	Semyon Varlamov	Semyon Varlamov
2014-15	Carey Price	Carey Price	Carey Price
2015-16	Braden Holtby	Ben Bishop	Ben Bishop
2016-17	Sergei Bobrovsky	Sergei Bobrovsky	Sergei Bobrovsky
2017-18	Pekka Rinne	Pekka Rinne	Connor Hellebuyck
2018-19	Andrei Vasilevskiy	Ben Bishop	Andrei Vasilevskiy
2019-20	Connor Hellebuyck	Tuukka Rask	Connor Hellebuyck
2020-21	Marc-Andre Fleury	Semyon Varlamov	Andrei Vasilevskiy

This table shows the Vezina trophy winner (first-team all-star prior to 1981-82), the best goalie according to Goals Versus Average, and the best goalie according to Goals Versus Threshold.

GVA agrees with the actual trophy winner 37 times (in 65 years), while GVT agrees with the actual trophy winner 33 times. GVA and GVT agree with each other 47 times.

The players who have led the league multiple times based on GVA are Plante (6x), Hasek (5x), Hall (4x), Dryden (4x), Bower (3x), Esposito (3x), Roy (3x), Brodeur (2x), Thomas (2x), Bobrovsky (2x), Bishop (2x) and Varlamov (2x).

The players who have led the league multiple times based on GVT are Esposito (5x), Hasek (5x), Plante (4x), Hall (4x), Dryden (3x), Worsley (2x), Parent (2x), Roy (2x), Belfour (2x), Luongo (2x), Thomas (2x), Bobrovsky (2x), Hellebuyck (2x), and Vasilevskiy (2x).

There have been 26 instances where there's a three-way agreement between the Vezina/FAST winner, the GVA leader, and the GVT leader. This has been achieved on multiple occasions by Dominik Hasek (4x), Jacques Plante (2x), Tony Esposito (2x), Ken Dryden (2x), Patrick Roy (2x), Tim Thomas (2x), and Sergei Bobrovsky (2x).

 

[PenguinSpeed]

-Dryden is the best. His backup goalie had a 2% worse save percentage then Dryden. So people can claim Montreal was stacked upon stacked, but the backup goalie for Montreal was garbage in comparison to Dryden on that stacked teams. That needs to sink in.

 

[Doctor No]

-Dryden is the best. His backup goalie had a 2% worse save percentage then Dryden. So people can claim Montreal was stacked upon stacked, but the backup goalie for Montreal was garbage in comparison to Dryden on that stacked teams. That needs to sink in.

I'm not going to fact-check the number provided (although your success rate in providing accurate numbers to this forum is inconsistent at best).

Assuming that your number is true, couldn't that also manifest as Dryden's backups not being good?

 

[Doctor No]

Terry Sawchuk is near the bottom of the list. There's no question that from 1956 onwards, he wasn't a great goalie. But, as I said in my first post, this ignores his five-year peak, which many claim is one of the best peaks in goalie history.

One of my current projects is an attempt to estimate Sawchuk's save percentages for his prime years. It's been slow going so far.

 

[blogofmike]

-Dryden is the best. His backup goalie had a 2% worse save percentage then Dryden. So people can claim Montreal was stacked upon stacked, but the backup goalie for Montreal was garbage in comparison to Dryden on that stacked teams. That needs to sink in.

Lots of goalies could beat Larocque by 2%. In 1980 Denis Herron beat him 2.7%. In 1981 Sevigny beat him by 2.7%. Intra-team comparsions can be a high bar for some and a lower bar for others.

 

[pvr]

Very interesting data and read. Thanks for putting it together, with explanations.

Tony Esposito ends up looking pretty good here. Dryden and Hasek dominate. Also, Roberto Luongo has fashioned a nice career.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Great job.

Just one comment - any metric that compares players to the league average tends to overrate star players from the 1970s, who played when the league average was weaker (due to rapid expansion, the WHA, and no European talent).

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Great job.

Just one comment - any metric that compares players to the league average tends to overrate star players from the 1970s, who played when the league average was weaker (due to rapid expansion, the WHA, and no European talent).

Thanks! And agreed - I was trying to explain this with my 2nd-last disclaimer in my first post, but you explained it more concisely. That probably explains some of Esposito's higher-than-expected ranking.

 

[pvr]

Thanks! And agreed - I was trying to explain this with my 2nd-last disclaimer in my first post, but you explained it more concisely. That probably explains some of Esposito's higher-than-expected ranking.

Dryden too???

 

[Hockey Outsider]

This thread has been updated for 2019. Not a lot of changes - it was generally a young/inexperienced group of goalies who had top seasons this year.

Lundqvist (slightly) decrease his career GVA this year, but remains in 12th place. Price had a solid season and now ranks 27th (one spot ahead of Rinne, who also had a fairly good campaign). Luongo had a bad season by his standards, but remains in 5th all-time. Quick cut his career GVA in half due to a horrendous campaign. Bishop led the league in GVA and now ranks 38th all-time.

Luongo remains in 3rd place all-time in GVT. Lundqvist climbs to 10th - one more season like this could get him to 8th.

NOTE - I realized there was a methodology error in the previous set of numbers I posted (from 2018), which impacted the calculation of peak GVA and GVT for some netminders. This has now been fixed.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

Goals vs Average Career as a per game stat would be interesting.

Thomas really shines on that one being in the top 3rd despite the low # of games played. Wonder how much he would go up the list in a per game look.

Overall interesting to see him so high up on most of the breakdowns. To me it strengthens the case for him in the HOF despite the shorter peak.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

This entire thread has been updated for 2020. One interesting note - both GVA and GVT are more accurate at predicting the Vezina than I previously thought (I had a formula error before) - 59% and 51% accuracy, respectively, going back to 1956. Both percentages are higher post-1990.

The three Vezina favourites for 2020 are Rask, Hellebuyck and Khudobin (a distant third) according to GVA, and Hellebuyck, Rask and Vasilevskiy according to GVT.

I didn't make any adjustments to take into account the fact that different teams played different number of games due to the COVID-shortened season. I treated the season as if it was 70 games (even though some teams played up to one extra or two fewer games). So there's going to be some distortion in the peak and career numbers, but it should be minuscule.

Several prominent goalies hurt their career save percentage with poor performances this year (Rinne, Holtby, Bobrovsky). But that's the benefit of looking at peak numbers - Rinne et al can drag down their career average, but it doesn't change how good they were at their best.

This might have been Lundqvist's final season. His performance this year was below the league average (but still well above replacement level). He remains in 10th place in career GVT.

 

[decma]

Thanks.
This is an incredible resource.

Is Table 6 mislabelled? It now has the tame title as Table 5 but I believe it should be "GOALS VERSUS THRESHOLD - PEAK" rather than "GOALS VERSUS AVERAGE - PEAK"

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Thanks.
This is an incredible resource.

Is Table 6 mislabelled? It now has the tame title as Table 5 but I believe it should be "GOALS VERSUS THRESHOLD - PEAK" rather than "GOALS VERSUS AVERAGE - PEAK"

Thanks! Good catch - Table 6 was mislabeled. I've updated that now.

 

[MadArcand]

Great work HO!

Confirms wthat Sean Burke is very underrated, and conversely Mike Vernon is extremely overrated.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

This entire thread has been updated for 2021. I'll give my standard disclaimer - all data has been presented in good faith, but if you see any errors, let me know.

At age 36, Marc-Andre Fleury had the best season of his career. His career save percentage is only slighly above average, but playing at that level for a long time (nearly 900 regular season games) has resulted in the 15th highest GVT.

Andrei Vasilevskiy is in the middle of a strong four year run - one Vezina, two third-place finishes, and almost certainly being a finalist again this year. He's finished 9th, 2nd, 8th and 2nd in GVA, and 5th, 1st, 3rd and 1st in GVT. (He generally does better in GVT because he's a workhorse).

Braden Holtby, now in Vancouver, had his second consecutive season as one of the worst goalies in the NHL. That drags down his career save percentage to barely above league average. But nothing changes how good he was at his peak; that's the value in showing numbers for a goalie's best seven years.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

This entire thread has been updated for 2022. I'll give my standard disclaimer - all data has been presented in good faith, but if you see any errors, let me know.

Igor Shesterkin had an outstanding season. He has the 15th highest adjusted-for-era save percentage going back to 1955-56 (and highest result since Hasek's 1998-99 campaign) - with a minimum of 3,000 adjusted minutes. The downside in looking at adjusted save percentage is a goalie is either over the threshold, or the result gets tossed away. As an example, Tony Esposito's 1972 campaign (where he has an even higher save percentage than Shesterkin, but he only played 2,920 adjusted minutes) gets ignored entirely. That's why I prefer looking at GVA and GVT (which are explained above). There's no arbitrary threshold for a goalie to reach. Shesterkin still does well, but less so than before, because he only played in 53 games.

Andrei Vasilevskiy had another good year. He currently ranks 12th all-time in save percentage (minutes 20,000 adjusted minutes). He's a great goalie, of course, but he's only 27 and he hasn't seen his numbers decline due to age (like Roberto Luongo, who maintained the same adjusted save percentage over more than 2.5x as many games). He already ranks 27th in GVA (that, of course, can increase or decrease over time) and he's 69th in GVT (which is remarkable for a goalie who's only played in 365 games - and GVT can decrease as well, but since a goalie gets credit just for showing up, it's hard).

Marc-Andre Fleury was only slightly above league average but, as I've explained before, there's some value in being average (or even a bit below average), as it ensures your team doesn't need to play a replacement-level goalie. Fleury had 39.4 GVT, which believe it or not pushes him to 13th place all-time.

Both GVA and GVT suggest Igor Shesterkin will be the Vezina winner this year. This appears to be a safe bet.

 

[The Panther]

Great work HO!

Confirms wthat Sean Burke is very underrated, and conversely Mike Vernon is extremely overrated.

Really? Who on here rates Vernon highly?