Adjusted Even-Strength Plus-minus 1960-2017

[Golden_Jet]

What about removing +/- for empty net goals.

 

[overpass]

Re-posted the tables. They go back to 1960 and through 2017 now.

Jaromir Jagr took the top position from Ray Bourque since the last time I updated this.

 

[overpass]

What about removing +/- for empty net goals.

Sounds like a fine idea, but unfortunately I don't have that data set. The stats are based on official NHL plus-minus data going back through 1960, and I don't think on-ice empty net goal stats go anywhere near that far back.

 

[supsens]

I am a new to advanced andjusted everything and I am trying to learn what all the fuss is about. But are you adjusting +- based on points? The normalized 200?
The iPad won’t load the right side of your chart.

 

[DitchMarner]

Sundin is very high, but I think he may deserve it. I think he's actually been underrated at times, although he played in Toronto. He's never really had the big season where he was top-5 in scoring, but he's very consistently played with very ordinary wingers against the opponents best lines and come out well ahead in his matchups. I think he added a huge amount of value to Toronto while he was there.

The non-offensive aspects of Sundin's game seem to really fly under the radar.

The perception of him among hockey types who are into hockey history and all-time rankings and such seems to be that he was an offensive C who was good offensively but was not at the level of the biggest superstars of his era in that regard and that he had only a modest peak offensively for someone who was as prolific offensively as he was while not offering much of note in terms of defense, leadership, intangibles etc. Thus he seems to be thought of as basically a centre version of a guy like Recchi, I guess. Meanwhile, he's perceived to be overrated because of Toronto fans/the hockey media. That's the impression I've gotten anyway.

He was a very solid top line centre during the puck era and he actually brought more than just points. He killed penalties frequently and was strong on the puck and could really be a handful to handle in the attacking zone.

He ranks among the leaders in short-handed points on this list on NHL.com (I believe it goes back to 1934 or so).

NHL.com - Stats


He had some plus/minus ratings that were quite solid in comparison his team's goal differential/the plus/minus ratings of numerous defensemen on his team.

In 1997, he was a +6 despite the fact that his team had a goal differential of -43.

1996-97 Toronto Maple Leafs Roster and Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

The Maple Leafs' defense was very poor that season, featuring old guys, a beleaguered Larry Murphy and random scrubs.

Yushkevich was -24, Macoun was -14, Martin was -12 and Ellett was -8.


The following season, he was only -3 on another team with a goal differential of -43.

Defensemen Macoun, Yushkevich, Schneider, Wolanin and Zettler were all -8 to -17.


In 1999, the Leafs improved drastically and made the playoffs. They had a goal differential of +37 and Sundin was +22.

From 2000-2004, the Leafs made the playoffs every year and Sundin always had a positive plus/minus rating (+16, +15, +6, +1, +11).


Later on, toward the end of his career, Sundin was +17 on a team with a goal differential of -29 (in 2008-2009).

McCabe was -2, Kaberle was -8, White was -9, Stralman was -10.


I'm not really surprised Sundin cracked the top 100 on your chart. I agree that he brought immense value to TOR and there definitely was more to his game than pure point production.



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Joe Thornton is higher than I would have imagined, but he is a player who could dominate games when he was on during his prime. He's another guy that doesn't have a reputation for being particularly great defensively AFIK but who consistently exerted a team-positive impact on the ice.


Henrik Sedin is surprisingly high, but considering the way he and his brother could control the puck during their primes, I'm not shocked by his ranking.

 

[DitchMarner]

Overpass, where about do the following players rank in your adjusted plus/minus model: Modano, Peter Stastny, Denis Savard, Lecavaier (his raw plus/minus is quite ugly), Kopitar?

 

[overpass]

Overpass, where about do the following players rank in your adjusted plus/minus model: Modano, Peter Stastny, Denis Savard, Lecavaier (his raw plus/minus is quite ugly), Kopitar?

Here you go.

Player	GP	$ESGF	$ESGA	$ESGF/82	$ESGA/82	R-ON	R-OFF	XEV+/-	EV+/-	AEV+/-	AEV+/-/82	EV%
Mike Modano	1499	1178	1043	64	57	1.13	1.06	43	135	92	5	36%
Peter Stastny	977	819	762	69	64	1.07	0.97	-15	57	72	6	36%
Vincent Lecavalier	1212	897	1007	61	68	0.89	0.83	-113	-110	2	0	34%
Anze Kopitar	840	672	589	66	58	1.14	0.93	-30	83	113	11	37%
Denis Savard	1196	865	760	59	52	1.14	0.99	-3	105	108	7	31%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

And because most of these guys played a number of seasons outside their prime, here they are in their best ~600 game stretch.

Player	Seasons	GP	$ESP/82	$ESGF	$ESGA	$ESGF/82	$ESGA/82	R-ON	R-OFF	AEV+/-	AEV+/-/82	EV%
Mike Modano	96-03	602	62	592	410	81	56	1.45	1.06	164	22	41%
Peter Stastny	81-88	603	61	577	492	78	67	1.17	1.02	77	11	40%
Denis Savard	82-89	600	55	495	437	68	60	1.13	0.92	85	12	35%
Anze Kopitar	10-17	604	50	510	384	69	52	1.33	0.99	129	18	38%
Vincent Lecavalier	03-11	628	57	542	549	71	72	0.99	0.86	45	6	38%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Hockey Outsider]

@overpass - do you have a similar spreadsheet for the playoffs that you're willing to share? I'm working on a study and it's proving to be a pain to get the data in a usable format.

 

[overpass]

@overpass - do you have a similar spreadsheet for the playoffs that you're willing to share? I'm working on a study and it's proving to be a pain to get the data in a usable format.

No, I’m afraid I don’t. I was hoping to put one together until nhl.com removed the plus-minus report from their stats page.

 

[Dingo]

I notice, or think I do, that, in the final category - expected/82, which is essentially a 'per game' rating, and i do think its of the 'most valuable all around players' if your math is correct (which i am not qualified to dissect) - guys ehos careers ended early really stand out - Orr, Lindros, Forsberg, Lemieux being top 4.

Can you run this so that maybe 'years after 35' are excluded?