Player Discussion: Adam Pelech

[PK Cronin]

It's certainly a major factor, as offense also provides a lot of value to the team, and it is easy to quantify. But when you look at most top teams, you see guys getting paid for more than just their offensive numbers. Because if you aren't willing to pay people to do something, you tend to end up with fewer guys who will do it. Toronto is a pretty good example of what happens when you are only willing to pay guys based on offensive stats.

And Lou has always believed in paying guys based on their value to the team, not on their stats or their supposed role, so he's another good example of what I'm talking about, and makes me not too worried he won't value Pelech appropriately. Because I'll be honest, if I was Pelech and you told me you were only going to pay me based on my offensive stats, I would file for arbitration and walk as a UFA as soon as possible to find a team that appreciates defensive players.

What RFAs are getting paid more than their offensive numbers? We're not talking about UFAs here and nobody is saying he should be paid solely based off his offense, but it's a huge part of the equation.

 

[Bluesish]

Blues fan here that watched a lot of Islanders games this year and really appreciate what Pelech brings. I think a good contract comparable could be Colton Parayko, if that helps.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Blues fan here that watched a lot of Islanders games this year and really appreciate what Pelech brings. I think a good contract comparable could be Colton Parayko, if that helps.

Good comparable, and very close to where I have him at. 5.5M for 6 years.

 

[PK Cronin]

Blues fan here that watched a lot of Islanders games this year and really appreciate what Pelech brings. I think a good contract comparable could be Colton Parayko, if that helps.

Parayko is exactly the type of player I'd compare him to as well. He signed a 5 year deal that expires this season for a $5.5M AAV. That was before the flat cap, so I can't see a scenario where Pelech gets more unless it's longer term.

 

[Seph]

Parayko is exactly the type of player I'd compare him to as well. He signed a 5 year deal that expires this season for a $5.5M AAV. That was before the flat cap, so I can't see a scenario where Pelech gets more unless it's longer term.

That contract was signed in 2017, when the following season's cap limit was known to be 75 mil. If we take the same % that 5.5m was of the cap at the time but with today's cap, it'd be 5.97m, which seems close enough to 6m to call it square.

What RFAs are getting paid more than their offensive numbers? We're not talking about UFAs here and nobody is saying he should be paid solely based off his offense, but it's a huge part of the equation.

Vlasic got 4.25m in 2013 which would be less than 500k from being the same % of the cap limit at the time as 6m would be today, which seems like a reasonable comparable and then Pelech gets the extra few hundred thousand per year for the team success and for his great play in the playoffs. But some other examples include Toews got the same contract as Kane despite much lower point totals, Killorn got 4.45m per in 2016 with a career high of 41 points, Couturier getting 4.3m in 2016 despite never hitting 40 points in a season, Kopitar getting 6.8m in 2009 (9.75m today to do the same % of the cap limit) coming off a 66 point season, etc.

But also I'm not sure why RFA is such a sticking point for you. You can't pay a guy like an RFA if you're trying to sign him through mostly UFA years, and unless we are looking to sign him to a 1-2 year deal, we will be doing exactly that. So again, if we aren't willing to sign him to his market value, I would not blame him one bit for going to arbitration to get a 1-2 year deal and then leaving as soon as he can. Doesn't seem worth it to me over 1m/year for a guy that is as important to the team as he is, a guy who has led all players in EV TOI in the playoffs (while being 2nd in SH TOI) for the past two seasons straight where we've also been back to back division champions primarily on the strength of our defensive play.

 

[SDIsles34]

Look at RFAs and then tell me what the biggest factor in their paycheck is based on. Spoiler alert, it's their offensive production.

Show me an RFA defender who had low offensive output and was rewarded with a big salary.

Good point PK. Historically, you are absolutely correct- defensive defensemen rarely get paid. The sample size for RFA example is seemingly small as teams have been more willing to commit big dollars/ term to 2 way players. My comment relates to what teams are putting an emphasis on in today's NHL. Admittedly, Pelech is a unique case as his elite ability as a shutdown defensemen results in little-to-no offensive production.

Do we believe that Lou would go to arbritation with Pelech and gripe about his offensive numbers to bring down the AAV?

Regardless of the holes in my theory, I'll gladly accept a wager that Pelech's new deal will be 6M or higher.

 

[saintunspecified]

I'm with Seph on this one. I expect a long term deal in the 6-6.5M range. There are three players I believe will define the future of the franchise - Pelech, Barzal, and Sorokin. NYI need to prioritize them long term, and wrt to Pelech that means buying his UFA years now, because unlike Barzal, a bridge is not a good option.

If that means finding a cheaper replacement for Cizikas, so be it.

 

[Tres Peleches]

If Cizikas is gone I wouldn’t mind trading Clutter and going some combo of MM, MDC, and a cheaper FA

 

[pursuit81]

If Cizikas is gone I wouldn’t mind trading Clutter and going some combo of MM, MDC, and a cheaper FA

I agree but good luck moving fourth-line, one-handed Clutter at $3.5M.

 

[Tres Peleches]

I agree but good luck moving fourth-line, one-handed Clutter at $3.5M.

I don’t think it’d be as hard as you think.

1 year, AAV $3.5M, $2.5 actual salary

Heck, some time might even pay a 5th or something, but I definitely wouldn’t pay more than a 4th if it were a pure dump

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

I'd pay Pelech 6+ long-term easily. Pulock looked completely average when he's been paired with anyone other than Adam Pelech.

After watching him the last couple of years I'm convinced MAB would've been an allstar playing alongside Pelech.

 

[dlawong]

Future top pairing d possible for Isles - Pelech and Dobson (unless Pulock has an incredible upcoming season). Why? You must have at least one smooth skating transitional offensive D on top pairing. Pelech is a stay at home shut down top PK D and his role is quite well defined. Pulock is still a question mark - can he be better at transition and quarterback PP? He is also really close to UFA which makes me nervous as he will be much sought after as rhd UFA if not resigned by isles early January next year. If not resigned due to cap space constraint, you can probably get a real solid return package for him and bolster future line up/pipeline.

I think no matter what happens next week, Isles may have to come down to choosing who to keep long term - Beau, Pulock, Cizikas, or an upgrade in top wingers this year? If they do any kind of big deals this summer, then one or two of Beau, Bails, Cizikas, or Pulock most likely will have to be let go or traded and of course you will prefer to trade for the bigger return which will fill an important void in the current roster plus bolstering future pipeline. Unless Lee can be moved within the next two years, there will not be enough money to tied up all these young core players with Lee/Nelson/JPG (18) all in lineup in 3 years with the young core - Barzal (10.5), Pelech (6), Dobson (5), Wally (4.5), Sorokin (4), Beau (5), Pulock (7.5), and anyone they possibly signed past three years this summer plus a back up goalie and a reasonable priced bottom 4 line and 3rd line LW.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

If Pelech is looking for 7M or more. I think his days are numbered with the Isles. Just a feeling, I don't think this would go well over with Lou, he set the precedent with the Devils long ago with Brodeur. Players that want to play for the Devils had to agree to play to the team's cap structure, not the NHL's cap structure. He was pretty firm on this. I can't see Pelech as the highest paid Islander under any circumstance. He's valuable, but not the type of player that should be your highest paid player.

 

[The Real JT]

not me
i think that Pulock came into his own this year, with respect to his defensive play. not on par with Pelech, but then again, Pelech is not on par with Pulock, offensively.
i think their individual values are very close. remember, Pulock plays both PK and PP.

Don't remind me.

While he's a currently an irreplaceable cog on the defense, he still has plenty of warts.

We've all fallen in love with his shot but his accuracy in a word, sucks. He also had more than his share of defensive gaffes during the playoffs.

Pelech>>> Pulock

 

[The Real JT]

I'd pay Pelech 6+ long-term easily. Pulock looked completely average when he's been paired with anyone other than Adam Pelech.

After watching him the last couple of years I'm convinced MAB would've been an allstar playing alongside Pelech.

Pelech is the second best player on the team.

If his lack of offensive production thus far drives down his value then Lou should take advantage of it and lock him up long term even if it bumps up the AAV.

 

[doublechili]

Whatever Lou pays Pelech, he's probably going to have to pay the same thing to extend Pulock. So he's actually negotiating 2 long-term contracts right now. Pretty important.

What he has in his favor is that the captain and the best player on the team both make $7 million a year. So Lou can absolutely say the max he can pay Pelech is $6 mil or so and Pelech can't feel insulted. He might feel like he can get more $$ elsewhere, but maybe those 2 hour personality tests the Isles give to prospects actually target how they'll react in contract negotiations!

 

[buud]

Don't remind me.

While he's a currently an irreplaceable cog on the defense, he still has plenty of warts.

We've all fallen in love with his shot but his accuracy in a word, sucks. He also had more than his share of defensive gaffes during the playoffs.

Pelech>>> Pulock

let's see what they get for contracts, and then compare. Pulock has really picked up his defensive game, IMO. no way that Pelech is >>> better

 

[Disgraced Cosmonaut]

Interesting to see a lot of people saying Pelech is >>>> better than Pulock. I don't disagree.
I hope the number for his next deal is not prohibitively expensive. 4 x $6m may be OK for now.

 

[PK Cronin]

That contract was signed in 2017, when the following season's cap limit was known to be 75 mil. If we take the same % that 5.5m was of the cap at the time but with today's cap, it'd be 5.97m, which seems close enough to 6m to call it square.


Vlasic got 4.25m in 2013 which would be less than 500k from being the same % of the cap limit at the time as 6m would be today, which seems like a reasonable comparable and then Pelech gets the extra few hundred thousand per year for the team success and for his great play in the playoffs. But some other examples include Toews got the same contract as Kane despite much lower point totals, Killorn got 4.45m per in 2016 with a career high of 41 points, Couturier getting 4.3m in 2016 despite never hitting 40 points in a season, Kopitar getting 6.8m in 2009 (9.75m today to do the same % of the cap limit) coming off a 66 point season, etc.

But also I'm not sure why RFA is such a sticking point for you. You can't pay a guy like an RFA if you're trying to sign him through mostly UFA years, and unless we are looking to sign him to a 1-2 year deal, we will be doing exactly that. So again, if we aren't willing to sign him to his market value, I would not blame him one bit for going to arbitration to get a 1-2 year deal and then leaving as soon as he can. Doesn't seem worth it to me over 1m/year for a guy that is as important to the team as he is, a guy who has led all players in EV TOI in the playoffs (while being 2nd in SH TOI) for the past two seasons straight where we've also been back to back division champions primarily on the strength of our defensive play.

RFA status is such a sticking point because I've explicitly said that's the years I'm referring to and a contract that eats a bunch of UFA years will cost more.

Those examples aren't great to me and mostly contain forwards, which are not comparable. Vlasic is a good comparable but the problem with it is the cap was expected to rise each year, right now it's flat for a little longer. That changes things.

 

[IslandersFan17]

You give Pelech a blank check and don’t think twice about it. Teams spend a lot of capital at times trying to find a true #1 defender. Pelech is one of the most underrated top pairings in the league. Give the dude his pay.

 

[Seph]

RFA status is such a sticking point because I've explicitly said that's the years I'm referring to and a contract that eats a bunch of UFA years will cost more.

Those examples aren't great to me and mostly contain forwards, which are not comparable. Vlasic is a good comparable but the problem with it is the cap was expected to rise each year, right now it's flat for a little longer. That changes things.

So, you are against a 6m per year on a longterm contract because one of those years would be RFA? Or do you want us to sign him to a one year deal? I'm not getting your point here. Also, I am not understanding why showing high end defensive players getting paid more for their defensive games can't be used to illustrate my point that high end defensive players do get paid more for their defensive games, so I could use some clarification on that too.

Flat cap is a fair point, but I do still think having a bigger role on the team, better playoff performances and more team success account for that. And even if you disagree, that is still quibbling over a few hundred thousand. Do you really think it makes sense to risk losing our top defenseman, and arguably our playoff MVP, for a few hundred thousand per year?

 

[pursuit81]

You give Pelech a blank check and don’t think twice about it. Teams spend a lot of capital at times trying to find a true #1 defender. Pelech is one of the most underrated top pairings in the league. Give the dude his pay.

Pelech is an exceptional defender. He is also one-dimensional and playing in a system that accentuates his strengths (remember pre-Trotz Pelech?). He deserves a very nice and very well-deserved payday, but a blank check, no way.

 

[saintunspecified]

Pelech is an exceptional defender. He is also one-dimensional and playing in a system that accentuates his strengths (remember pre-Trotz Pelech?). He deserves a very nice and very well-deserved payday, but a blank check, no way.

If Pelech were an excellent power play quarterback or triggerman, he'd be in the 9MAAV range. I don't see how that's an argument against him getting 6-6.5MAAV. His even strength offensive contribution tbh seems just fine to me.

PS Sometimes I wouldn't mind seeing Pelech *tried* on the PP. Because what he lacks in offensive skills he makes up for it between the ears. I bet he could learn to be pretty good.

 

[pursuit81]

If Pelech were an excellent power play quarterback or triggerman, he'd be in the 9MAAV range. I don't see how that's an argument against him getting 6-6.5MAAV. His even strength offensive contribution tbh seems just fine to me.

PS Sometimes I wouldn't mind seeing Pelech *tried* on the PP. Because what he lacks in offensive skills he makes up for it between the ears. I bet he could learn to be pretty good.

I don't have any problem with 6 for Pelly. And I agree, wouldn't mind seeing him get a shot on the PP and see how it goes. He'd almost certainly get the puck on net more than Pully. It wasn't on the PP, but that goal he had against Boston was a laser. I seem to remember some pretty nice end to end rushes during the playoffs as well. Still, until he can consistently prove his offensive chops (and I doubt BT will give him the freedom to do so), he is mostly one-dimensional.

 

[PK Cronin]

So, you are against a 6m per year on a longterm contract because one of those years would be RFA? Or do you want us to sign him to a one year deal? I'm not getting your point here. Also, I am not understanding why showing high end defensive players getting paid more for their defensive games can't be used to illustrate my point that high end defensive players do get paid more for their defensive games, so I could use some clarification on that too.

Flat cap is a fair point, but I do still think having a bigger role on the team, better playoff performances and more team success account for that. And even if you disagree, that is still quibbling over a few hundred thousand. Do you really think it makes sense to risk losing our top defenseman, and arguably our playoff MVP, for a few hundred thousand per year?

I've specifically been talking about a short term contract. I've made that clear.

I didn't say your examples can't be used, I said the forwards are meaningless. Nor did I say he shouldn't be sign to a higher value deal. You're creating a straw man.

I'm on mobile until tomorrow sometime so I'll respond more then if necessary.