Player Discussion Adam Fox

[Machinehead]

Fox had 5 goals and 23 points in 20 games during the Rangers first ECF run of this era. Then the Rangers lost to NJ in round 1 and he had 8 assists in 7 games. Last year, he got kneed by Jensen and was playing on one leg, so his effectiveness wore off.

The narrative that he’s not a playoff player is a bit unfair

Not to mention he was + a million in the 2024 playoffs so he was still defending which he's apparently bad at.

 

[smoneil]

Just wondering how the Rangers "skate him into the ground" when Fox gets very low usage for a 1D? He's 27th in TOI/GP among dmen since last year when Lavy took over.

The answer is simple. They don't. People just like to make up things to fill their narrative.

Fox is playing 5+ more minutes per game than any other RD on the roster. You are also comparing him to the usage of other top D around the league. Fox doesn't (and never had) the kind of elite physical ability or size that are a feature of most top D. Fox has also dealt with lenthy playoff runs in 2 of the last 3 years. Again, Derek Stepan's career effectively ended in his late 20s (he hung around for a few more years as a role player, but he wasn't top 6 after his first season in Arizona). Step's body took a beating for ten years, and by that point his brain couldn't really compensate. Fox is 26. If the team wants him to be more than a role player by the end of his current contract, they need to reduce the pounding he takes night in and night out. I'm not "making something up to fill my narrative." I'm looking at the data available, comparing it to players with similar physical traits/styles of play, and making an educated guess.

I could be wrong. It's an opinion. But it would explain why Fox seems just a little bit slower and not quite as noticeable as he has in years past. And having watched both players, this really does remind me of what we saw with Stepan his last couple of years here. I do think the team can slow/hold off the impact of physical regression, but not if they keep playing him 23/24 minutes a night.

 

[SA16]

Fox is playing 5+ more minutes per game than any other RD on the roster. You are also comparing him to the usage of other top D around the league. Fox doesn't (and never had) the kind of elite physical ability or size that are a feature of most top D. Fox has also dealt with lenthy playoff runs in 2 of the last 3 years. Again, Derek Stepan's career effectively ended in his late 20s (he hung around for a few more years as a role player, but he wasn't top 6 after his first season in Arizona). Step's body took a beating for ten years, and by that point his brain couldn't really compensate. Fox is 26. If the team wants him to be more than a role player by the end of his current contract, they need to reduce the pounding he takes night in and night out. I'm not "making something up to fill my narrative." I'm looking at the data available, comparing it to players with similar physical traits/styles of play, and making an educated guess.

I could be wrong. It's an opinion. But it would explain why Fox seems just a little bit slower and not quite as noticeable as he has in years past. And having watched both players, this really does remind me of what we saw with Stepan his last couple of years here. I do think the team can slow/hold off the impact of physical regression, but not if they keep playing him 23/24 minutes a night.

Yes, as Fox is a first pair defenseman, two time first team all star, one time second team all star, and Norris Trophy winner I am comparing him to other players around that level and not depth players on his same team.

A part of the reason that Stepan's career ended prematurely is he did not take his training or off-ice activities seriously. He said it himself.

 

[Levitate]

There are valid criticisms of Fox.

He is certainly slow. I think he was always slow and people just decided to notice when the results slipped just enough to start the hate porn.

His shooting could certainly be better for a #1D, although I think the whole powerplay has been off this year.

If you think Fox can't defend, especially off the rush, I'm not taking you seriously. Nobody is except meme posters and Devils fans. "Oh Machinehead, you're condescending again." Yes I am. Posting on this forum and having no f***ing idea what you're looking at when you watch a hockey game warrants it.

I don't know how one arrives at that or gets better at assessing this game, but that's not my problem.

I think he's having a down year independent of Lindgren and I've said that all year. Guys have down years. A lot of people are gonna look stupid when it ends up just being one year where he was a little off. Then again, a lot of people look stupid now.

He's slow but I think he's mayyyybe leaned a bit too into making one all or nothing defensive play and then looking to the sky if it doesn't work which certainly looks irritating to a lot of people.
Like one game before the break (can't even remember which game it was) he was beat off the boards in the offensive zone by an opposing player who skated in for a scoring chance, while Fox rolled his eyes and looked frustrated.
But the play there was Fox actually made a play on the puck that usually disrupts the other player and causes them to lose possession or at least slow down and have to regain things, but this time the puck bounced right back out in front of the player on his stick and he didn't have to slow down at all, so Fox was left standing still after making his check and the other player kept his momentum. It looked bad, but most of the time that turns into a nothing play and no one comments on Fox getting beat on the boards.
Most of the time his kind of all or nothing plays work out, but it can stand out when they don't because he's doing things that completely disrupt and turn the puck the other direction a lot of times (stepping into a passing lane to steal a pass rather than sticking with and stick checking his man, for instance).
So, maybe he relies on that a bit too much, but it's also what makes him overall such a good defender. He's not just always trying to tie guys up, he's making plays, and it's leaning into his strengths because he even if he spent all summer working his ass off to be in the best shape of his life he's still going to be at a disadvantage along the boards or in a foot race with many NHLers.

His shooting this year seems to be off in terms of both luck and his shot selection. I mean, he scored 17 goals last year. Maybe that will be a high water mark but he also knows how to shoot the puck. However I see him taking a lot more "deflection" wristers through traffic this year rather than sneaking in for higher quality chances. IMO he hasn't been shooting to score for himself this year.
His down year also is likely in huge part because the powerplay is blah which h has some responsibility for but we also see all the other functions of it not working correctly. Even just a decent power play and he probably has 5-10 more points

 

[NickyFotiu]

He's slow but I think he's mayyyybe leaned a bit too into making one all or nothing defensive play and then looking to the sky if it doesn't work which certainly looks irritating to a lot of people.
Like one game before the break (can't even remember which game it was) he was beat off the boards in the offensive zone by an opposing player who skated in for a scoring chance, while Fox rolled his eyes and looked frustrated.
But the play there was Fox actually made a play on the puck that usually disrupts the other player and causes them to lose possession or at least slow down and have to regain things, but this time the puck bounced right back out in front of the player on his stick and he didn't have to slow down at all, so Fox was left standing still after making his check and the other player kept his momentum. It looked bad, but most of the time that turns into a nothing play and no one comments on Fox getting beat on the boards.
Most of the time his kind of all or nothing plays work out, but it can stand out when they don't because he's doing things that completely disrupt and turn the puck the other direction a lot of times (stepping into a passing lane to steal a pass rather than sticking with and stick checking his man, for instance).
So, maybe he relies on that a bit too much, but it's also what makes him overall such a good defender. He's not just always trying to tie guys up, he's making plays, and it's leaning into his strengths because he even if he spent all summer working his ass off to be in the best shape of his life he's still going to be at a disadvantage along the boards or in a foot race with many NHLers.

His shooting this year seems to be off in terms of both luck and his shot selection. I mean, he scored 17 goals last year. Maybe that will be a high water mark but he also knows how to shoot the puck. However I see him taking a lot more "deflection" wristers through traffic this year rather than sneaking in for higher quality chances. IMO he hasn't been shooting to score for himself this year.
His down year also is likely in huge part because the powerplay is blah which h has some responsibility for but we also see all the other functions of it not working correctly. Even just a decent power play and he probably has 5-10 more points

I believe more hustle on the boards and less looking up at the sky would go a long way leadership wise imo. It would probably help with fan's impressions as well.

 

[NickyFotiu]

Yes, as Fox is a first pair defenseman, two time first team all star, one time second team all star, and Norris Trophy winner I am comparing him to other players around that level and not depth players on his same team.

A part of the reason that Stepan's career ended prematurely is he did not take his training or off-ice activities seriously. He said it himself.

Interesting that you brought up training. I was just watching a video of Gretz saying he believed that his off ice training from age 32 let him play an additional 8 years. He said he knew it was time to retire when he could not get motivated to do the physical anymore. Obviously he also dealt with back issues for a long time as well.

 

[Levitate]

I believe more hustle on the boards and less looking up at the sky would go a long way leadership wise imo. It would probably help with fan's impressions as well.

I do agree on the looking up to the sky, though sometimes after a whistle I think he's looking at the video screen

Generally his board play is again, make a skill play on the puck rather than fighting off a (likely bigger) player. I'm fine with him leaning into his strengths on that one

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

I do agree on the looking up to the sky, though sometimes after a whistle I think he's looking at the video screen

Generally his board play is again, make a skill play on the puck rather than fighting off a (likely bigger) player. I'm fine with him leaning into his strengths on that one

Idk he used to win battles all the time. He’s gotten very lazy , and or out of shape

 

[EdJovanovski]

edit: saw a fake post that he was scratched lol

 

[Levitate]

Idk he used to win battles all the time. He’s gotten very lazy , and or out of shape

eh...
I mean yeah, possible he's engaging less. He tends to "win" battles by having a quick stick and using body positioning to make up for his size. I guess it's possible he's relying more on stick checking than body positioning, I don't really know.

generally I'm wary of accusing players of being out of shape etc, we have no real idea what they do to keep in shape

 

[SA16]

Pretty interesting how declining Adam Fox has the best 5v5 xG% of his career. These takes are just because he's shooting 1 for 61 at 5v5 and the PP hasn't been as good.

The "knee" and skating speed is objectively false. You can just look at his skating data the last few years. There's no significant change.

 

[EdJovanovski]

Pretty interesting how declining Adam Fox has the best 5v5 xG% of his career. These takes are just because he's shooting 1 for 61 at 5v5 and the PP hasn't been as good.

The "knee" and skating speed is objectively false. You can just look at his skating data the last few years. There's no significant change.

Do you consider Rempe our 3rd best skater? Because the NHL Edge data says he is. I think there are other aspects of skating that aren’t picked up by that data. For instance Panarin scores pretty poorly on that data, but he still gets around quite well. Great edges and decent acceleration despite his top speed not being that of a burner. Fox has very poor acceleration and his edges seem to be far less agile than at the start of his career.

 

[NickyFotiu]

Pretty interesting how declining Adam Fox has the best 5v5 xG% of his career. These takes are just because he's shooting 1 for 61 at 5v5 and the PP hasn't been as good.

The "knee" and skating speed is objectively false. You can just look at his skating data the last few years. There's no significant change.

What does the data represent?

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

It’s his birthday today

 

[NickyFotiu]

It’s his birthday today

Hat Trick tonight!

 

[TheDirtyH]

Do you consider Rempe our 3rd best skater? Because the NHL Edge data says he is. I think there are other aspects of skating that aren’t picked up by that data. For instance Panarin scores pretty poorly on that data, but he still gets around quite well. Great edges and decent acceleration despite his top speed not being that of a burner. Fox has very poor acceleration and his edges seem to be far less agile than at the start of his career.

The data says he's reached a top speed that only two other Rangers have, it doesn't say he's our 3rd best skater.

The data also says that Fox's top speed, and the amount of times he's reaching each of the three tracked speed bins (22+, 20-22, and 18-20mph) are also identical to the last few seasons.

You can say this:

For instance Panarin scores pretty poorly on that data, but he still gets around quite well. Great edges and decent acceleration despite his top speed not being that of a burner.​

Just as easily as someone could say this:

For instance Kakko scores pretty poorly on that data, but he still gets around quite well. Great edges and decent acceleration despite his top speed not being that of a burner.

or this:

For instance Trouba scores pretty poorly on that data, but he still gets around quite well. Great edges and decent acceleration despite his top speed not being that of a burner.

 

[SA16]

What does the data represent?

We're not going through this again. Look it up if you want to know.

 

[EdJovanovski]

The data says he's reached a top speed that only two other Rangers have, it doesn't say he's our 3rd best skater.

The data also says that Fox's top speed, and the amount of times he's reaching each of the three tracked speed bins (22+, 20-22, and 18-20mph) are also identical to the last few seasons.

You can say this:



Just as easily as someone could say this:



or this:

I don't understand your argument, you were using the NHL Edge data to argue that Fox's skating speed hasn't gone downhill. I'm saying there is more to skating speed than what is captured by NHL Edge (acceleration, agility, etc). I think a lot of Fox's attributes have gone downhill and they may not be captured by NHL Edge data

 

[TheDirtyH]

I don't understand your argument, you were using the NHL Edge data to argue that Fox's skating speed hasn't gone downhill. I'm saying there is more to skating speed than what is captured by NHL Edge (acceleration, agility, etc). I think a lot of Fox's attributes have gone downhill and they may not be captured by NHL Edge data

I understand your point but it's totally speculative. I don't think his agility or acceleration have declined at all. Since neither of us can prove it, just use some common sense: do you think it's more likely for a player's top speed and the ranges of speeds they skate at to remain near constant across three years and his acceleration and agility to have gotten worse? Or do you think it's more likely that if a player's acceleration and agility were so declined, that their skating speed would be at all impacted.

You don't have an argument, you have a assumption. You're inclined to poo poo data that doesn't support your assumption and you claim that its an issue with the data itself. If Fox's skating speed had declined, you would certainly be pointing to it as evidence of what you already think about the player. Because it hasn't, you're saying it's disqualified.

Best you can get to with your line of thinking is "agree to disagree", which, fine. But ultimately one of us has something, if imperfect, to support their point of view, and the other has an opinion that has no more of a basis that one of us saying:

For instance Panarin/Kakko/Trouba/Ben Affleck scores pretty poorly on that data, but he still gets around quite well. Great edges and decent acceleration despite his top speed not being that of a burner.

 

[EdJovanovski]

I understand your point but it's totally speculative. I don't think his agility or acceleration have declined at all. Since neither of us can prove it, just use some common sense: do you think it's more likely for a player's top speed and the ranges of speeds they skate at to remain near constant across three years and his acceleration and agility to have gotten worse? Or do you think it's more likely that if a player's acceleration and agility were so declined, that their skating speed would be at all impacted.

You don't have an argument, you have a assumption. You're inclined to poo poo data that doesn't support your assumption and you claim that its an issue with the data itself. If Fox's skating speed had declined, you would certainly be pointing to it as evidence of what you already think about the player. Because it hasn't, you're saying it's disqualified.

Best you can get to with your line of thinking is "agree to disagree", which, fine. But ultimately one of us has something, if imperfect, to support their point of view, and the other has an opinion that has no more of a basis that one of us saying:

For instance Panarin/Kakko/Trouba/Ben Affleck scores pretty poorly on that data, but he still gets around quite well. Great edges and decent acceleration despite his top speed not being that of a burner.

I appreciate you breaking things down and articulating your case, rather than the common response of refusing to even entertain the slightest Fox criticism because he's untouchable. But I do think that top speed is the last to go out of the 3 (Acceleration, Agility, Top Speed). Top Speed is about maintaining the momentum, I would think the explosiveness (Acceleration) would go first. Sure there may not be data for it but I definitely think I see Fox get beat way more often now and struggle to keep up, a lot of people seem to be seeing the same thing

 

[Callafan24]

Fox is still a plus defensively and typically faces the best competition.

The best way to lower his mileage (and keep him healthy) is to limit his ice time on the PK. Surely Schneider and Borgen can be trusted to take those minutes so Fox is fresh at 5v5 and on the PP.

 

[TheDirtyH]

I appreciate you breaking things down and articulating your case, rather than the common response of refusing to even entertain the slightest Fox criticism because he's untouchable. But I do think that top speed is the last to go out of the 3 (Acceleration, Agility, Top Speed). Top Speed is about maintaining the momentum, I would think the explosiveness (Acceleration) would go first. Sure there may not be data for it but I definitely think I see Fox get beat way more often now and struggle to keep up, a lot of people seem to be seeing the same thing

Thanks Ed. You know you and I agree on the important things anyway (Rempe, Matt).

But just to follow up, I don't know if you're a subscriber, but you might be interested in this article from The Athletic about "athleticism" and especially about how it can manifest very differently than people expect it to or are used to 'seeing' it as.

I think you and many other posters are not seeing anything happen more often, but are instead looking for examples of something you want to believe true because of your own assumptions mixed with the disappointing season the team is having.

That, mixed with the nature of the position, and especially how unique of a player Fox is within that position, both presently and historically, makes him a difficult player to understand. People look for traits and behaviors they see often, and then judge Fox against them, instead of looking at the results and approaching Fox with more curiosity.

In other words, people here are much more comfortable saying that stats are wrong because a players' methods are more or less familiar to them. They believe Cuylle is already a 25 goal scorer because he is big, fast, and has a good shot. They believe Rempe is a terrible skater because he's big and awkward. They believed Dan Girardi was an effective shut-down defenseman because he blocked tons of shots and because he wasn't very good at making plays with the puck. They believe Fox can't be as effective a defenseman as he is because his results and methods are neither what they expect them be (high-event offensive defensman ala Makar or Hughes) nor do his methods match the profiles in their heads that get the results he actually gets.

I wouldn't put so much stake in 'other people' thinking the same thing about something either. Historically, that's not really got anything to do with what's true.

 

[bleedblue94]

You guys are aware that Werenski also played under 14mins last night? An entire 3 seconds more than Fox

@bleedblue94 I guess the coaches finally acknowledged what only you have been able to see thus far. Zach Werenski is a horrible skater and defender.

So again to deflect on Fox we bring up someone else.

Go figure.

Werenski was out of rotation bc he's not a good defender and they were locking it down. Same as fox.

It is cute to see fox defenders now start using werenski as a comparable to justify fox's minutes being cut, same werenski that people mocked for having a bad contract and such. Whatever is convenient for you...

 

[LokiDog]

So again to deflect on Fox we bring up someone else.

Go figure.

Werenski was out of rotation bc he's not a good defender and they were locking it down. Same as fox.

It is cute to see fox defenders now start using werenski as a comparable to justify fox's minutes being cut, same werenski that people mocked for having a bad contract and such. Whatever is convenient for you...

Dude. He’s a clear cut top 3 defenseman in the NHL. He’s just #5 on a Team USA that doesn’t have Hughes. But still top 3 in the world.

 

[LokiDog]

There are valid criticisms of Fox.

He is certainly slow. I think he was always slow and people just decided to notice when the results slipped just enough to start the hate porn.

His shooting could certainly be better for a #1D, although I think the whole powerplay has been off this year.

If you think Fox can't defend, especially off the rush, I'm not taking you seriously. Nobody is except meme posters and Devils fans. "Oh Machinehead, you're condescending again." Yes I am. Posting on this forum and having no f***ing idea what you're looking at when you watch a hockey game warrants it.

I don't know how one arrives at that or gets better at assessing this game, but that's not my problem.

I think he's having a down year independent of Lindgren and I've said that all year. Guys have down years. A lot of people are gonna look stupid when it ends up just being one year where he was a little off. Then again, a lot of people look stupid now.

Is this the same Machinehead who, without a hint of sarcasm, stated last season that you don’t even watch the games anymore because you have better things to do and just look at your fancy charts? Because you did, and I have the receipts.