Player Discussion: Adam Fantilli

[cbjthrowaway]

There are different ways to accomplish the "getting there". JVR, Hartnell, etc made careers of reading plays but I don't think it means every player of that style works out as well. Boeser is fairly reliant on his linemates which obviously Fantilli-KJ have the potential to provide but I don't know if I love it on paper. Jenner kinda fills that role as a not incredibly speedy but get to dirty/scoring area's type and that didn't really work, felt like 3 guys pulling in 3 different directions.

boone does a lot of things very well, but his best offensive traits are clogging up the netfront and retrieving dump-ins. those things don't have much value if you're playing on a line that is carrying the puck in and doesn't have much of a rush delay game.

JVR fits better because his small-area game, playmaking (especially from near/behind the net) and ability to get to (and score from) high-danger areas at the right time.

brock boeser does a lot of similar things exceptionally well, but has the added benefits of being 1) younger, 2) right handed and 3) a high-end shooting threat on top of that. he's a passenger, but in a way he's kind of the ideal passenger in the o-zone, as he's a dual shooter-facilitator rather than a puck-needy entry machine.

McCann would be a good add, I didn't think he'd be a legit target but his contract is coming up right away, I thought it had more term.

imo his term (2 years left after this one) is actually perfect:

• cost-controlled while marchenko + KJ are still cheap (meaning they can pay assets for mccann and then throw money at other problems)
• comes off the books when KJ + marchy need new deals
• lets them be patient with brindley, dumais, lindstrom, etc. without giving them so much runway that it gums up the roster

 

[stevo61]

boone does a lot of things very well, but his best offensive traits are clogging up the netfront and retrieving dump-ins. those things don't have much value if you're playing on a line that is carrying the puck in and doesn't have much of a rush delay game.

JVR fits better because his small-area game, playmaking (especially from near/behind the net) and ability to get to (and score from) high-danger areas at the right time.

brock boeser does a lot of similar things exceptionally well, but has the added benefits of being 1) younger, 2) right handed and 3) a high-end shooting threat on top of that. he's a passenger, but in a way he's kind of the ideal passenger in the o-zone, as he's a dual shooter-facilitator rather than a puck-needy entry machine.


imo his term (2 years left after this one) is actually perfect:

• cost-controlled while marchenko + KJ are still cheap (meaning they can pay assets for mccann and then throw money at other problems)
• comes off the books when KJ + marchy need new deals
• lets them be patient with brindley, dumais, lindstrom, etc. without giving them so much runway that it gums up the roster

Oh you are right, it is 2 more years. I wonder if Seattle even looks to move him and what the deal would look like. Guessing Chinakhov for a potential replacement player and then whatever + for the uncertainty

 

[stevo61]

Ehlers might be a throw money at option if he makes it to FA and they are confident they can still fix the defense and have a long-term plan in place. I do like the short-term look of a guy like McCann though if the price is right

 

[Cowumbus]

8x10 seems reasonable to me. 8 yrs for sure, maybe as high as $11mm works. 11/107 = approximately 10% of cap in 2026-27. and decreases going forward.Seems reasonable for a 1C.

… is he a 1C (yet) though.. ? 11m for a 55 point 1C??

Weren’t people saying in other threads that they weren’t sure if he should even be playing center currently?

80 million is a crap ton of money, you have to be sure the player is worth it, especially when you’re paying it out to someone with ZERO leverage. Secondly, what is the benefit to walking one of your best players to free agency on his first contract? Why not bridge him to a 3-4 year deal then sign the deal that takes him to age 32 or so…

Ducks are probably happy they didn’t give Zegras 64 million after 2 good years.

 

[stevo61]

… is he a 1C (yet) though.. ? 11m for a 55 point 1C??

Weren’t people saying in other threads that they weren’t sure if he should even be playing center currently?

80 million is a crap ton of money, you have to be sure the player is worth it, especially when you’re paying it out to someone with ZERO leverage. Secondly, what is the benefit to walking one of your best players to free agency on his first contract? Why not bridge him to a 3-4 year deal then sign the deal that takes him to age 32 or so…

Ducks are probably happy they didn’t give Zegras 64 million after 2 good years.

And we should be sad we gave KJ and Marchenko small deals. Sometimes it saves you but other times it costs you a lot more. I wouldnt be too shy to offer Fantilli a bigger deal

 

[cbjthrowaway]

… is he a 1C (yet) though.. ? 11m for a 55 point 1C??

smart organizations pay for what a player is going to be, not for what a player has been.

the bad version of that is giving a big deal to a guy exiting his prime and paying above market for bad years. the good version of that is giving a young player a long-term deal before they break out, and getting multiple years of surplus value.

Secondly, what is the benefit to walking one of your best players to free agency on his first contract? Why not bridge him to a 3-4 year deal then sign the deal that takes him to age 32 or so…

two reasons

1. it takes two to tango. makes more sense for the player to go for 8 years now, and then plan on another long-term deal after that. and for the team
2. the cap is going to go way up the next few years. if you bridge now you're getting short-term cap flexibility when you don't need it, then paying a lot more after the bridge deal, when the cap will be far higher.

Ducks are probably happy they didn’t give Zegras 64 million after 2 good years.

the devils are pretty happy that they gave jack hughes 8x8. same with the senators and stutzle.

jack hughes had 36 even strength points in 117gp at the time he signed his extension. stutzle had 51 in 132gp (granted he had a ton of pp production).

adam fantilli, who missed a ton of his D+1 season and has two more games to go this season, has 70 even strength points in 129 career games. and he has a physical element to his game that those guys (and zegras) didn't.

 

[majormajor]

the long-term shape of PP1 probably involves marchenko moving off the half-wall and into a position where he and monahan can trade off some of the bumper + netfront duties. marchenko's ability to win back pucks would be great down low.

they're not a "dual one-timer threats on the half walls" power play. they can (and i'd argue should) have a lefty attacking downhill. KJ has been (by far) their best right-side half wall guy but i think i'd like him better on the left side attacking downhill and running the unit with fantilli in the right circle.

KJ's deception and passing ability could really pop, as he'd have lefty one-timer options up top (werenski), in the bumper (monahan) and cross-ice (fantilli), plus a right handed shooting threat on the back post (marchenko) for tap-ins.

they could also do a sort of in-zone rotation set play where KJ carries it up high, werenski goes to the right circle as a one-timer threat and marchenko goes out to the right circle with fantilli and monahan in the middle. KJ's looked excellent up top.

I like that PP1 concept.

we're talking about a 41-game sample size here, a big chunk of which has seen the jackets get atrocious play in net.

But over that 41 game span our goalies have been unsustainably good with Fantilli on the ice - 93.31% save percentage with Fantilli on the ice. 1.058 PDO - which no one ever sustains.

Fantilli has a team worst 3 xGA/60 over that 41 game span, but only 2.1 GA/60.

there are other reasons to not like this guy as a target, but if they want to 'round out' the line this summer, brock boeser's strengths would certainly seem to align.

he doesn't do anything in transition, but that's not where KJ and fantilli need help. the in-zone play is where they need to make strides, and that's where boeser is great – in the o-zone. he's incredible at getting to dangerous areas, great along the boards, and can beat goalies from anywhere.

JVR's been a great fit on that line (and really, a great fit with KJ all year) – boeser would essentially be an improved (and much younger) version.

don't love the idea of the contract, but the player in a nutshell is exactly what they should target – a respected veteran who can make them more dangerous in the offensive zone. would also allow KJ to move to LW where frankly i think he'd be a lot more consistent.

Boeser basically is what we have now in JVR. I don't think he's better or worse than that. It seems like we might have the option of keeping JVR on a good short term deal and avoid any long term commitments to Boeser.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Fantilli has a team worst 3 xGA/60 over that 41 game span, but only 2.1 GA/60.

that's fair. the d-zone reads leave a lot to be desired still.

Boeser basically is what we have now in JVR. I don't think he's better or worse than that.

there's a lot of overlap in their strengths, but boeser is a significantly better player, and is 8 years younger.

also, speaking of the idea of having a right handed back-post or bumper on PP1 (i mentioned marchenko there), boeser is absolutely lethal in that role. i was watching highlights from his 23-24 season and i swear half of the goals are from that area.

it's a treat to watch. he's crafty and opportunistic with unreal scoring touch.

It seems like we might have the option of keeping JVR on a good short term deal and avoid any long term commitments to Boeser.

i'd love for them to bring JVR back. he's a good player and clearly a great influence in the room. but while he wouldn't carry financial risk in terms of a high AAV, at his age there's enormous risk in depending on him to play a major role as his effectiveness could fall off a cliff at any moment.

in my view, there's room for both. a boeser type producer in the top six, and JvR playing mostly fourth line duty with a chance to go higher in the lineup at times.

 

[majormajor]

that's fair. the d-zone reads leave a lot to be desired still.

The one-and-done attack might be the bigger issue, we don't have zone time data in the public view but from the shots and xGA it looks like Fantilli is just spending a lot of time in his end.

there's a lot of overlap in their strengths, but boeser is a significantly better player, and is 8 years younger.

also, speaking of the idea of having a right handed back-post or bumper on PP1 (i mentioned marchenko there), boeser is absolutely lethal in that role. i was watching highlights from his 23-24 season and i swear half of the goals are from that area.

it's a treat to watch. he's crafty and opportunistic with unreal scoring touch.




i'd love for them to bring JVR back. he's a good player and clearly a great influence in the room. but while he wouldn't carry financial risk in terms of a high AAV, at his age there's enormous risk in depending on him to play a major role as his effectiveness could fall off a cliff at any moment.

in my view, there's room for both. a boeser type producer in the top six, and JvR playing mostly fourth line duty with a chance to go higher in the lineup at times.

Maybe you're right that Boeser is significantly better, but I suspect that depends mostly on when you're looking. Boeser is so up and down. In 2023-24 he certainly was very good.

 

[GoJackets1]

Last night's Habs game was really the first I've watched Bedard, beyond highlights. Completely unironically, I am beyond happy we have Fantilli instead. I don't need to go into too many specifics because I don't want to dump on Bedard, but Fantilli is going to be the type of player that leads teams in important scenarios and can completely take over games. Bedard can do that too, but generally, he reminds me of Marner but with absolutely zero defensive effort. So just a worse version of Marner. IMO, it's a near certainty that Adam will always be the better 5v5 player between the two as well.

 

[Jovavic]

Bedard is Canadian Laine, just a cannon you roll into a position and he does his thing and that's it. Lesser Stamkos

 

[GoJackets1]

Bedard is Canadian Laine, just a cannon you roll into a position and he does his thing and that's it. Lesser Stamkos

Yeah, I was even thinking about making the Laine comp. But Bedard seems to have a bit more playmaking in him.

 

[stevo61]

Not sure I'd dunk on Bedard yet but Fantilli has made some solid progress. Dude has a ton of runway left in terms of potential too

 

[Xoggz22]

Will be interesting to revisit that draft in another 3 years or so. For now I can only think... remember that time we were disappointed to lose the lottery and ended up with Fantilli? My how a short time later things have changed.

 

[majormajor]

Will be interesting to revisit that draft in another 3 years or so. For now I can only think... remember that time we were disappointed to lose the lottery and ended up with Fantilli? My how a short time later things have changed.

Fantilli was widely considered a #1OA caliber talent.* That part didn't change.

We initially expected to end up with Leo, another #1OA caliber talent. We happened to bottom out in a year where there were several of them available.

* It was widely acknowledged that he would have been a clear #1OA if he was a few weeks older and in the 2022 draft.

 

[Xoggz22]

Fantilli was widely considered a #1OA caliber talent.* That part didn't change.

We initially expected to end up with Leo, another #1OA caliber talent. We happened to bottom out in a year where there were several of them available.

* It was widely acknowledged that he would have been a clear #1OA if he was a few weeks older and in the 2022 draft.

Don't disagree with anything you wrote. However, that's not what my comment was about. You may or may not recall all the angst we had with NOT getting the 1OA and how everyone was pissed that the Blackhawks ended up with the pick and how we have no luck and can't get the generational talent (Bedard was considered generational as I recall - may still be great, but he was the next one). My comment is a poke at this job board for being so disappointed for not getting something we really didn't know and "fell into" Fantilli (also widely considered a 1OA worthy player as you noted).

There was disappointment with not getting Bedard, and then jubilation with getting Fantilli who inexplicably dropped to 3OA. This has nothing to do with the potential of Fantilli or his draft position, but rather this board being so emotionally distraught for losing the lottery. I'm interested to see how they all develop from that draft - as it looks to be pretty amazing thus far.

 

[Doggy]

Don't disagree with anything you wrote. However, that's not what my comment was about. You may or may not recall all the angst we had with NOT getting the 1OA and how everyone was pissed that the Blackhawks ended up with the pick and how we have no luck and can't get the generational talent (Bedard was considered generational as I recall - may still be great, but he was the next one). My comment is a poke at this job board for being so disappointed for not getting something we really didn't know and "fell into" Fantilli (also widely considered a 1OA worthy player as you noted).

There was disappointment with not getting Bedard, and then jubilation with getting Fantilli who inexplicably dropped to 3OA. This has nothing to do with the potential of Fantilli or his draft position, but rather this board being so emotionally distraught for losing the lottery. I'm interested to see how they all develop from that draft - as it looks to be pretty amazing thus far.

While I think people were disappointed with not winning the lottery and the right to draft Bedard #1OA, I think the "angst" you refer to was the anger felt at Chicago jumping us and our dropping from #2OA to #3OA and not getting to pick which of Fantilli or Carlsson the team wanted. If the lottery had gone Anaheim, CBJ, Chicago with the Hawks not "lucking" into first pick (and the way the televised broadcast was screwed up) I don't think you sense nearly as much consternation from the CBJ fanbase.

 

[stevo61]

While I think people were disappointed with not winning the lottery and the right to draft Bedard #1OA, I think the "angst" you refer to was the anger felt at Chicago jumping us and our dropping from #2OA to #3OA and not getting to pick which of Fantilli or Carlsson the team wanted. If the lottery had gone Anaheim, CBJ, Chicago with the Hawks not "lucking" into first pick (and the way the televised broadcast was screwed up) I don't think you sense nearly as much consternation from the CBJ fanbase.

Thats what I remember. The angst of dropping from 2 to 3 after not losing all the games to end that year. Pair that with the Smith whispers, it was a rough place around here for a bit

 

[Doggy]

Thats what I remember. The angst of dropping from 2 to 3 after not losing all the games to end that year. Pair that with the Smith whispers, it was a rough place around here for a bit

And Smith having a pretty nice rookie season. Honestly I think the only fanbase that might be remotely disappointed with its pick in the top four is Bedard. I expect that will change when they improve and finally get some players for him to play with but as of right now the other three have possibly exceeded the expectations of their draft position. Certainly Philly at 7 and Buffalo at 13 are ecstatic.

 

[stevo61]

And Smith having a pretty nice rookie season. Honestly I think the only fanbase that might be remotely disappointed with its pick in the top four is Bedard. I expect that will change when they improve and finally get some players for him to play with but as of right now the other three have possibly exceeded the expectations of their draft position. Certainly Philly at 7 and Buffalo at 13 are ecstatic.

I'd still be pretty sad if we had Smith and not Fantilli/Carlsson

 

[Doggy]

I'd still be pretty sad if we had Smith and not Fantilli/Carlsson

At 2/3 I'd agree but if we'd earned the #4OA and landed Smith that'd feel pretty good.

 

[majormajor]

Don't disagree with anything you wrote. However, that's not what my comment was about. You may or may not recall all the angst we had with NOT getting the 1OA and how everyone was pissed that the Blackhawks ended up with the pick and how we have no luck and can't get the generational talent (Bedard was considered generational as I recall - may still be great, but he was the next one). My comment is a poke at this job board for being so disappointed for not getting something we really didn't know and "fell into" Fantilli (also widely considered a 1OA worthy player as you noted).

There was disappointment with not getting Bedard, and then jubilation with getting Fantilli who inexplicably dropped to 3OA. This has nothing to do with the potential of Fantilli or his draft position, but rather this board being so emotionally distraught for losing the lottery. I'm interested to see how they all develop from that draft - as it looks to be pretty amazing thus far.

Yeah we're not disagreeing with each other. What I'm adding is that it was already known at the time of the 2023 draft lottery that there were several franchise #1Cs to pick from, the people who were most upset about not winning that lottery were the people who didn't know that, that had only heard about Bedard supposedly being generational.

I suppose there was some scout opinion that Bedard was going to be generational and/or that Leo wasn't a future #1C. But that was always wrong in my opinion. I thought they were all pretty close, and I wasn't alone in that view. And now you will hear more people saying Leo > Bedard.

Thats what I remember. The angst of dropping from 2 to 3 after not losing all the games to end that year. Pair that with the Smith whispers, it was a rough place around here for a bit

Yeah the Smith whispers were the one thing that got to me. I can't remember if it was ever confirmed that we had him ahead of Leo. Smith is developing better than I thought he would though, he's gotten a lot closer to the mean in terms of his strength and endurance. But Leo I thought would be a 100+ pt two-way dominant #1C (and still think that) and taking Smith over him would have eaten me up. It's not like us taking Lindstrom over Demidov, which I disagreed with, but I at least respect the thinking there.

 

[GoJackets1]

Fantilli: 42 goals in 130 games
Bedard: 45 goals in 142 games

Man we got a good one!

 

[CBJWerenski8]

 

[Doggy]

And what I’ll remember most is him laughing hysterically on the bench after Voronkov’s minor penalty the other night.