Player Discussion: Adam Fantilli

[majormajor]

man.

just 5 goals in 27 games this season. 13 points.

what more do we need to do to get adam going? sophomore slump?

thru his first 76 games in the NHL he has 40 points which isn’t terrible for such a youngin’ but this season he just seems lost more times than not. gripping stick too hard, overthinking.. I have no idea

If it's points you want, then put him on Monahan's wing. Adam had one game on the wing this year and it was by far his best game in terms of chances generated. He's not at this point adept at center and the club tends to fare poorly in possession when he's out there. We don't have the puck and Adam doesn't have the puck, and it's hard to score that way.

But he also just had one of his best nights of the year vs Vancouver, having Voronkov and Marchenko with him helps a lot.

 

[ViD]

He’s getting chances almost every game, but he just can’t finish

 

[S1N4TR4]

He’s getting chances almost every game, but he just can’t finish

and that’s the mystery. why he hasn’t been able to finish.

 

[majormajor]

FWIW his individual xG is 4.5, and his actual goals is 5. So it doesn't look mysterious in that respect. By my eye there are a lot of games where he doesn't get good chances. The offensive zone time is certainly very brief.

His per minute xGs are 60% of last year's rates, seemingly a significant sophomore slump.

 

[mattihp]

and that’s the mystery. why he hasn’t been able to finish.

He is young and still learning. Don't know who could teach him on that roster.

 

[VT]

It's his second season, while in the first one he was injured for a long time. Nothing terrible is happening. Nathan MacKinnon had a worse second season as well. Actually, it wasn't until his fifth that he showed his qualities.

Nathan MacKinnon - Stats, Contract, Salary & More

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Nathan MacKinnon, 1995-09-01 Halifax, NS, CAN Canada. Most recently in the NHL with Colorado Avalanche. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

 

[DankoCBJ]

Sophomore Slumps are very common, nothing to be anxious about.

He will get there. He is too talented and driven not to get there.

Edit.typo

 

[EspenK]

FWIW his individual xG is 4.5, and his actual goals is 5. So it doesn't look mysterious in that respect. By my eye there are a lot of games where he doesn't get good chances. The offensive zone time is certainly very brief.

His per minute xGs are 60% of last year's rates, seemingly AN EXPECTED significant sophomore slump.

Fixed it for you.

 

[GoJackets1]

Seems like all of Bedard, Carlsson and Fantilli are having sophomore slumps. I’m not too worried about him, I’m sure he would like to be on the scoresheet more but I think he’s overall a better player this year than last, so the trajectory is still good.

 

[alphafox]

I feel like Fantilli is suffering from trying to do to much himself. He's ironically a Center who actually is better without the puck (unless on a rush) than with it and particularly when he's not on the ice with KJ I think he struggles trying to create his own chances. That is a classic example of something that happens as defenses put more focus on you. I don't know if there are stats for this but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few things 1. Fantilli facing tougher competition 2. fantilli struggling to use his linemates and 3. Fantilli's being much more effective on the rush than the half ice particularly compared to his previous split.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

He’s been snake bitten (I can recall a few times he’s been robbed or just missed the net), and I think he’s now pressing a little. I don’t think he’s playing poorly though, which is encouraging.

I think he’s improving defensively. No idea what his numbers are at faceoffs but I hope they’re improving too. I think the offense will come.

Last night I saw him getting a bit nastier with hits and gritty plays. Which is good to see he’s not putting his head down and pouting, he’s still contributing in some ways. He’s also been close to highlight reel goals in the last two games.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

I think that I've overrated him but I'm still of the mind that he's going to be a very good player. I'm expecting his ceiling to be in the 80 points range. I had thought that he might be a 100 points type. A PPG is certainly not bad, but not elite.

He's got some edge to him. Perhaps a Jamie Benn type career?

If Fantilli's numbers aren't close to a PPG by year 4, then I'll call him a disappointment. I'm optimistic that he'll hit that level in that time frame.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

man.

just 5 goals in 27 games this season. 13 points.

what more do we need to do to get adam going? sophomore slump?

i'm not worried at all. he's the youngest player on the roster by about a year and a half (sillinger is second youngest) and player development isn't linear.

it's barely even a slump as his scoring rate is pretty similar to last year's (0.48p/gp this year, 0.55 last year) and his most productive stretch last year came with gaudreau.

johnson's over a p/gp this year after a bad slump last year. sillinger had a sophomore slump for the ages and is on pace for about 60p this year. heck, even bedard is having a sophomore slump this year.

thru his first 76 games in the NHL he has 40 points which isn’t terrible for such a youngin’ but this season he just seems lost more times than not. gripping stick too hard, overthinking.. I have no idea

40p in his first 76gp is deserves a way better descriptor than "isn't terrible" given that most of that sample came when he was a literal teenager.

looking at scoring for fantilli's own draft class, he's tied (behind bedard) with leo carlsson with one more GP, but that gap is solely due to the jackets having a bad power play as carlsson has twice as much pp production (12p) as fantilli (6p)

if you look at the draft class before fantilli's, that would put him third in scoring behind slafkovsky (1st overall) and cooley (3rd overall). slaf has played more than 2x as many games (145) and cooley has played about 50% more (109).

fantilli isn't supposed to be a 1C yet. he's going to have a huge breakout at some point in the next two years. he's still absolutely on track to be a franchise-level center.

 

[ViD]

It is definitely concerning that he’s projecting to have a worse season statistically when we’re scoring much more than last year

You can’t deny that and say I’m not worried. Keep
In mind they already shuffled somewhat working lines to get Fantilli going.

I do see the effort from him and that he’s getting chances, but getting no puck luck at all.

In general, I can’t say I’m disappointed, but I’m concerned considering the hype around him during the draft

 

[Xoggz22]

No concerns at all. It has been widely discussed that there is not only a focus on his defensive play but he's playing higher in the lineup and at a decidely tougher position and not failing. He has a very good supporting group to help him and he's not being chastised for mistakes and seems to be learning from them. I think of a guy like Rick Nash under Hitchcock. Nash was decent his first year under Hitch, much better in year two and then a PPG guy in year three and had an all around game. He had to learn the defense. He was also one of our few skill guys so he played even higher in the lineup, but he learned the 200 ft game. I think Fantilli follows the same path, but with a better supporting cast that will allow him to learn the game and NOT need to be THE MAN.

Let's revisit this next year and the year after to see that type of player he becomes. I think he shows all the signs of becoming a beast still and if he can do that at center... whoa man!

 

[S1N4TR4]

i'm not worried at all. he's the youngest player on the roster by about a year and a half (sillinger is second youngest) and player development isn't linear.

it's barely even a slump as his scoring rate is pretty similar to last year's (0.48p/gp this year, 0.55 last year) and his most productive stretch last year came with gaudreau.

johnson's over a p/gp this year after a bad slump last year. sillinger had a sophomore slump for the ages and is on pace for about 60p this year. heck, even bedard is having a sophomore slump this year.


40p in his first 76gp is deserves a way better descriptor than "isn't terrible" given that most of that sample came when he was a literal teenager.

looking at scoring for fantilli's own draft class, he's tied (behind bedard) with leo carlsson with one more GP, but that gap is solely due to the jackets having a bad power play as carlsson has twice as much pp production (12p) as fantilli (6p)

if you look at the draft class before fantilli's, that would put him third in scoring behind slafkovsky (1st overall) and cooley (3rd overall). slaf has played more than 2x as many games (145) and cooley has played about 50% more (109).

fantilli isn't supposed to be a 1C yet. he's going to have a huge breakout at some point in the next two years. he's still absolutely on track to be a franchise-level center.

very good points and a good post in response to mine.

 

[S1N4TR4]

one thing I noticed looking at his stats this season,

15 giveaways in 49 games last season.

34 giveaways in just 27 games this season.

19 more giveaways in 22 (!!) less games. leads all forwards in giveaways

ice time is up 1 minute a game compared to last season.

@CBJWerenski8 — regarding face off percentage,

this season: 41.2 percent
last season: 43.6 percent.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

@CBJWerenski8 — regarding face off percentage,

this season: 41.2 percent
last season: 43.6 percent.

Eh. Not great. But Wennberg struggled for a long time and is now pretty solid I believe. He’s also got two good teachers there with Monahan and Kuraly. I think he can get to 50% one day.

 

[S1N4TR4]

Eh. Not great. But Wennberg struggled for a long time and is now pretty solid I believe. He’s also got two good teachers there with Monahan and Kuraly. I think he can get to 50% one day.

this is correct.

wennberg’s rookie year with us, his face off percentage was 42.7

this season he sits at 50.3 (career high)

off topic but my goodness look at his giveaway to takeaway ratio in his 2022-2023 season with seattle.

 

[majormajor]

off topic but my goodness look at his giveaway to takeaway ratio in his 2022-2023 season with seattle.

Hot Damn!

 

[CBJx614]

this is correct.

wennberg’s rookie year with us, his face off percentage was 42.7

this season he sits at 50.3 (career high)

View attachment 942446


off topic but my goodness look at his giveaway to takeaway ratio in his 2022-2023 season with seattle.

I still for life of me, don't understand why we bought him out. He was a good player that just had another level that he couldn't quite get to. Was he overpaid, maybe a little bit...but not buyout worthy...

 

[GoJackets1]

It is definitely concerning that he’s projecting to have a worse season statistically when we’re scoring much more than last year

You can’t deny that and say I’m not worried. Keep
In mind they already shuffled somewhat working lines to get Fantilli going.

I do see the effort from him and that he’s getting chances, but getting no puck luck at all.

In general, I can’t say I’m disappointed, but I’m concerned considering the hype around him during the draft

It’s a classic sophomore slump and he’s still doing fine. He’s improved a lot in other aspects of the game as well.

Sophomore slumps used to worry me, they don’t anymore. Kids come in and just play how they know year 1, and then year 2 they start to think a bit more and get away from how they played year 1. Year 3 comes around and those two things usually line up and lead to a much more effective player. You see this happening with Bedard and Carlsson as well. We even saw it with KJ last year and look at him now.

I still think Fantilli is the kind of player that will need a playmaker on his line to hit his top level of offensive potential, but he’s definitely already an effective player which is a good sign for a young 20 year old who hasn’t even played a full season yet.

 

[Cowumbus]

playing with Pyyhtia will cause your scoring to be low

 

[majormajor]

It’s a classic sophomore slump and he’s still doing fine. He’s improved a lot in other aspects of the game as well.

I don't know what that is referring to. I see no evidence of it. It feels like people are trying to put a patina on a sophomore slump.

 

[VT]

one thing I noticed looking at his stats this season,

15 giveaways in 49 games last season.

34 giveaways in just 27 games this season.

19 more giveaways in 22 (!!) less games. leads all forwards in giveaways

ice time is up 1 minute a game compared to last season.

@CBJWerenski8 — regarding face off percentage,

this season: 41.2 percent
last season: 43.6 percent.

Kent Johnson had 5 giveaways/12 takeaways in the last season when we criticised him and 31 giveaways/21 takeaways in this.
Kirill Marchenko had 19 giveaways/43 takeaways in the last season and 25 giveaways/12 takeaways in this.
Yegor Chinakhov had 5 giveaways/23 takeaways in the last season and 12 giveaways/2 takeaways in this.
Zach Werenski had 25 giveaways/33 ta in essays in the last season and 27 giveaways/16 takeaways in this.

So by comparison, even great players who had low GA and high TA have gotten worse and that's why we can't criticize Fantilli for his stats.