Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXVIII

[capitalsrock]

how can he be if hes at least three years away from coming over? what happens if grubauer or holtby go down? are we just gonna throw in another guy like justin peters who would be a wash up and cant play? why not have him in system and keep him until samsonov at least comes over

Vanacek hasn't even played in the AHL yet. He's probably 3 years away from the NHL just like Samsonov anyway. I'd rather sign more veteran goaltenders like Ellis for Hershey for the next few years. And Vanacek shouldn't be the starting goalie in Hershey next year. I guarantee they sign another veteran goalie.

 

[hb13xchamps]

Vanacek hasn't even played in the AHL yet. He's probably 3 years away from the NHL just like Samsonov anyway. I'd rather sign more veteran goaltenders like Ellis for Hershey for the next few years. And Vanacek shouldn't be the starting goalie in Hershey next year. I guarantee they sign another veteran goalie.

Why wouldn't Vanecek be the starter in Hershey next season? That makes no sense. The Caps and Bears have a long line of young guys stepping in and playing a majority of the games for Hershey. Varlamov, Neuvirth, Holtby, and Grubauer all stepped in when a young goalie was either traded or graduated to Washington. Copley would have done the same this season if it wasn't for the Oshie trade.

Having a pipeline of goalies is a pretty good thing to have and it has paid off pretty well for the Caps so far. This is one of the few seasons in the Bears/Caps relationship where there hasn't been a young guy paired with a vet in Hershey. You can go the vet route if you want, but it doesn't always work out.

 

[Portable Mink]

if Justin Williams hasnt shown that in this day and age, hockey IQ trumps natural skill most of the time, then i dont know what does.

He is THE example. One of the most effective players ive seen.
Obviously youd like both to be high but for adding pieces at the deadline, for me, hockey IQ is paramount. Chorney is a perfect 7. Another example.

 

[Ridley Simon]

how can he be if hes at least three years away from coming over? what happens if grubauer or holtby go down? are we just gonna throw in another guy like justin peters who would be a wash up and cant play? why not have him in system and keep him until samsonov at least comes over

If Holtby and Grubauer go down, they play Peters or Ellis. You are telling me that they play Vanacek under that scenario?

Edit-- you mean next year? You think a 20 yr old Vanecek is who they will entrust the team too? Lol. No way. Under the unrealistic scenario that both Holtby and Grubauer go down for an extended period and won't be available, the Caps will trade for a goalie. They'd have 7m to play with, so....

 

[Calicaps]

if Justin Williams hasnt shown that in this day and age, hockey IQ trumps natural skill most of the time, then i dont know what does.

He is THE example. One of the most effective players ive seen.
Obviously youd like both to be high but for adding pieces at the deadline, for me, hockey IQ is paramount. Chorney is a perfect 7. Another example.

All of this. Adding Williams (and Oshie) and letting Green walk about doubled this team's hockey IQ. (Probably would've tripled had they had not lost Ward.)

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

if Justin Williams hasnt shown that in this day and age, hockey IQ trumps natural skill most of the time, then i dont know what does.

He is THE example. One of the most effective players ive seen.
Obviously youd like both to be high but for adding pieces at the deadline, for me, hockey IQ is paramount. Chorney is a perfect 7. Another example.

Williams has a lot of skill. Good hands, quick and accurate shot, he's not slow either. His hockey IQ is fantastic, as is Kuzy's.

 

[hockeykicker]

If Holtby and Grubauer go down, they play Peters or Ellis. You are telling me that they play Vanacek under that scenario?

No what I'm saying is next year when vanacek is starting in Hershey he will be the next goalie up.not this year

 

[Ridley Simon]

No what I'm saying is next year when vanacek is starting in Hershey he will be the next goalie up.not this year

He's going to be 20years old for half of next season. I don't think he's going to be starting for Hershey, much less their go to guy if they lose Holtby and Grubauer for the season. No chance. They won't rest their Stanley Cup aspirations on a 20yr old rookie. Hell, that type of pressure may ruin him were he to be stuck in that spot.

That's a bad plan, on so many levels.

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

Seriously? Caps should take this deal,and run. Or even drive. No...fly. That fast with it.

Just to remove Laich's cap hit, which opens all kinds of doors this off season, especially if cap is going down? You want to possibly lose Chimera, Orlov, or Johansson because you are worried about Hershey's netminder..???

Plus you add the depth needed to both forward and defense areas? It's a no brainer! Who cares about Vanacek, he will never play in DC with Hiltby, Grubauer, and Samsanov ahead of him on the org depth charts.

I don't understand your thinking. At all.

Peters and Ellis were cast off G FA's that the Caps signed. You don't think they could do that again in short order? If Hershey needed someone?

If the Caps can make that deal, they do it yesterday.

It's not like this is the only way they can get rid of Laich. We can get rid of him in the offseason without giving up a recent 2nd round pick in the deal. I don't like trades where you give up the two most valuable pieces in the deal, and I think Vanacek and Carrick are the most valuable pieces there.

As for the return, PAP would be forced into a 4th line role that does not suit him at all. For a spot in the top 9 I'd rather have PAP than Laich, but for the guy at 4LW next to probably Richards and Beagle, I'd prefer Laich. Polak's a decent addition, but I wonder about how we'd use him or any other 7D addition if everyone is healthy the rest of the season. How do you get them comfortable and up to speed in what seems to be a fairly complex system, so that you're confident going to them in the playoffs over Chorney? Seems like it'd take some complex lineup juggling to get a new guy the ice time he needs to adjust.

 

[usiel]

Why wouldn't Vanecek be the starter in Hershey next season? That makes no sense. The Caps and Bears have a long line of young guys stepping in and playing a majority of the games for Hershey. Varlamov, Neuvirth, Holtby, and Grubauer all stepped in when a young goalie was either traded or graduated to Washington. Copley would have done the same this season if it wasn't for the Oshie trade.

Having a pipeline of goalies is a pretty good thing to have and it has paid off pretty well for the Caps so far. This is one of the few seasons in the Bears/Caps relationship where there hasn't been a young guy paired with a vet in Hershey. You can go the vet route if you want, but it doesn't always work out.

I would expect Vanecek to be in Hershey at least in the beginning of next season and I'm sure another AHL vet goalie so there isn't too much pressure. I totally agree always good to have at least 2 goalie prospect percolating in the prospect pipeline.

 

[capitalsrock]

Why wouldn't Vanecek be the starter in Hershey next season? That makes no sense. The Caps and Bears have a long line of young guys stepping in and playing a majority of the games for Hershey. Varlamov, Neuvirth, Holtby, and Grubauer all stepped in when a young goalie was either traded or graduated to Washington. Copley would have done the same this season if it wasn't for the Oshie trade.

Having a pipeline of goalies is a pretty good thing to have and it has paid off pretty well for the Caps so far. This is one of the few seasons in the Bears/Caps relationship where there hasn't been a young guy paired with a vet in Hershey. You can go the vet route if you want, but it doesn't always work out.

So handing over the starting job in Hershey to someone who has never played an AHL game just because Hershey has had success in the past few years with completely different players makes more sense?

And the prospect/vet route doesn't always work out. Nothing always works out. If it is so absolutely crucial to having a young goalie in Hershey they can always draft another one or sign one like they did with Copley.

If I'm GMBM, I don't pass on that that trade just because they've had past success with completely different prospects in Hershey.

 

[Ridley Simon]

It's not like this is the only way they can get rid of Laich. We can get rid of him in the offseason without giving up a recent 2nd round pick in the deal. I don't like trades where you give up the two most valuable pieces in the deal, and I think Vanacek and Carrick are the most valuable pieces there.

As for the return, PAP would be forced into a 4th line role that does not suit him at all. For a spot in the top 9 I'd rather have PAP than Laich, but for the guy at 4LW next to probably Richards and Beagle, I'd prefer Laich. Polak's a decent addition, but I wonder about how we'd use him or any other 7D addition if everyone is healthy the rest of the season. How do you get them comfortable and up to speed in what seems to be a fairly complex system, so that you're confident going to them in the playoffs over Chorney? Seems like it'd take some complex lineup juggling to get a new guy the ice time he needs to adjust.

Everyone keeps saying "we can get rid of Laich later". We've been saying that since Oates 2nd and last season. It's not that easy, and we can't waste this year ******* around on Laich.

They can waive PAP and use his monies elsewhere. Caps do this deal (now, not at the deadline), and they have some 3m that they can add at the deadline. That's a good player. Polak is 2.75. Carrick and Laich are 5.2.

Carrick is fodder, and is worth less than Polak. He just is for this year. Carrick is not more valuable than Polak. That's crazy.

Vanacek is the cost to get rid of Laich. It's going to cost the Caps to lose his salary, and -again- with a possibly shrinking salary cap next season, there will be very few teams that can and will take him. Caps will either have to pay more than Vanacek, or retain salary.

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

Everyone keeps saying "we can get rid of Laich later". We've been saying that since Oates 2nd and last season. It's not that easy, and we can't waste this year ******* around on Laich.

Before Oates's 2nd season, Laich had 3 years left on his contract. Big difference between trying to move a pending UFA this summer and moving a guy with 3 more years, assuming they were even trying to move him.

They can waive PAP and use his monies elsewhere. Caps do this deal (now, not at the deadline), and they have some 3m that they can add at the deadline. That's a good player. Polak is 2.75. Carrick and Laich are 5.2.

Waiving PAP only saves 950K of his contract, and makes the trade even worse of an overpayment. Why include him at all?

Carrick is fodder, and is worth less than Polak. He just is for this year. Carrick is not more valuable than Polak. That's crazy.

Carrick has been to the AHL All Star Game in his both of his AHL seasons. He's currently 21. He's got decent value, certainly more than a 2.75M pending UFA 6D. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see Carrick as a throw in.

Vanacek is the cost to get rid of Laich. It's going to cost the Caps to lose his salary, and -again- with a possibly shrinking salary cap next season, there will be very few teams that can and will take him. Caps will either have to pay more than Vanacek, or retain salary.

If the Caps goalie scouts saw enough in Vanacek to take him 39th overall, I think he's worth more than equalizing Laich's negative value. IMO, teams recognize how good the Caps are at identifying talented young goalies, and that's factored into their valuations (see Copley in the Oshie trade). I'd rather buy out Laich over the summer than give up Vanacek just to get rid of him. I think Vanacek could be a significant trade chip if we let him progress a bit.

Personally, I'd do Laich + 2nd for a guy like Grabner, but not a whole lot else. Adding a reserve defenseman doesn't seem like a big deal to me. Chorney's fine as a #7, Ness is a decent #8.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

All of this. Adding Williams (and Oshie) and letting Green walk about doubled this team's hockey IQ. (Probably would've tripled had they had not lost Ward.)

Really miss Wardo. Imagine we had bought out Laich and our RW depth could have been Oshie, Williams, Ward, Wilson.

I know that's assuming a lot happened the way it did between when we could have bought out Laich and now but the point remains.

 

[txpd]

Really miss Wardo. Imagine we had bought out Laich and our RW depth could have been Oshie, Williams, Ward, Wilson.

I know that's assuming a lot happened the way it did between when we could have bought out Laich and now but the point remains.

I am not sure that the Caps are not better off with Wilson in his current role and growing than keeping Wardo and keeping Wilson as a 4th liner for the lenth of the contracts of the other 3.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I am not sure that the Caps are not better off with Wilson in his current role and growing than keeping Wardo and keeping Wilson as a 4th liner for the lenth of the contracts of the other 3.

I am fairly sure the Caps are better off without Laich and with Ward.

 

[Raikkonen]

I am fairly sure the Caps are better off without Laich and with Ward.

Another vet wing means less time for Bura, Wilson and maybe some other guy (Galiev in our case though it doesn't matter because he can't progress enough with that icetime).

Imagine we had #5 dman from the start of the season. One of Orlov or Schmidt wouldn't have time to play and progress. Same with young wingers.

With Fehr and Ward gone we got the new noskilled guy in Wilson. That could be very beneficial down the road.

Also, Burakovski played as RW too. Ward would block that (but maybe would force Laich's department, which didn't occur and it's puzzling in the end). But Ward and Laich situations weren't connected on the ice (LW and RW), only from cap standpoint.

In the end, having upgraded Bura and Wilsona around summer 2017 is better than having very old Ward under contract at the same time.


Btw, can we sign Brouwer in the summer?! Chimera-Beagle-Brouwer 4th line

 

[txpd]

I am fairly sure the Caps are better off without Laich and with Ward.

Sure. I would rather have Ward than Laich. Wilson, however, is an impact player in his role. Sign Wardo to a 3 year contract, sign Williams for two years and Oshie has 2 years left. Wilson is a 4th liner for at least 2 more years.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Before Oates's 2nd season, Laich had 3 years left on his contract. Big difference between trying to move a pending UFA this summer and moving a guy with 3 more years, assuming they were even trying to move him.



Waiving PAP only saves 950K of his contract, and makes the trade even worse of an overpayment. Why include him at all?



Carrick has been to the AHL All Star Game in his both of his AHL seasons. He's currently 21. He's got decent value, certainly more than a 2.75M pending UFA 6D. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see Carrick as a throw in.



If the Caps goalie scouts saw enough in Vanacek to take him 39th overall, I think he's worth more than equalizing Laich's negative value. IMO, teams recognize how good the Caps are at identifying talented young goalies, and that's factored into their valuations (see Copley in the Oshie trade). I'd rather buy out Laich over the summer than give up Vanacek just to get rid of him. I think Vanacek could be a significant trade chip if we let him progress a bit.

Personally, I'd do Laich + 2nd for a guy like Grabner, but not a whole lot else. Adding a reserve defenseman doesn't seem like a big deal to me. Chorney's fine as a #7, Ness is a decent #8.

950k of 1.5m...leaving 550k of dead space for just this year, is a problem? That's a hypocritical stance when you seem comfortable leaving Laich's wasted 4.5m of space.

You seem to have completely glossed over the point of winning it all this year. There are simply not enough steps that can be taken to help that happens. PAP is better than Laich, and can fill top 9. Beagle coming back makes Laich redundant.

Carrick is nowhere near the player Polak is, this year (which I've now stated multiple times is what matters....This Year). Ness is not "decent" if we want to win the Cup, and he's playing. I assume you saw the Kings game. 7 games like that, with Ness? No freaking way.

Unless your assumptions are that no one in the top 9, and no one in the top 7 are going to get hurt during all rounds of the playoffs, then the Caps need more depth. Period. You are splitting hairs over little value issues when the biggest year of the franchises history is upon us. Vanacek will not be missed. Carrick will not be missed. Laich's departure should be trumpeted, and will help HUGE(think Bernie Sanders) this offseason.

It's a good deal, and if GMBM was offered it, he'd take it. Fixes short and long term issues, from 2 areas of extreme depth in the organization (D and G).

 

[Ridley Simon]

Really miss Wardo. Imagine we had bought out Laich and our RW depth could have been Oshie, Williams, Ward, Wilson.

I know that's assuming a lot happened the way it did between when we could have bought out Laich and now but the point remains.

It's ok, we can always get rid of Laich later. Who needed Ward?

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

950k of 1.5m...leaving 550k of dead space for just this year, is a problem? That's a hypocritical stance when you seem comfortable leaving Laich's wasted 4.5m of space.

You seem to have completely glossed over the point of winning it all this year. There are simply not enough steps that can be taken to help that happens. PAP is better than Laich, and can fill top 9. Beagle coming back makes Laich redundant.

Carrick is nowhere near the player Polak is, this year (which I've now stated multiple times is what matters....This Year). Ness is not "decent" if we want to win the Cup, and he's playing. I assume you saw the Kings game. 7 games like that, with Ness? No freaking way.

Unless your assumptions are that no one in the top 9, and no one in the top 7 are going to get hurt during all rounds of the playoffs, then the Caps need more depth. Period. You are splitting hairs over little value issues when the biggest year of the franchises history is upon us. Vanacek will not be missed. Carrick will not be missed. Laich's departure should be trumpeted, and will help HUGE(think Bernie Sanders) this offseason.

It's a good deal, and if GMBM was offered it, he'd take it. Fixes short and long term issues, from 2 areas of extreme depth in the organization (D and G).

If we have a top 9 injury, Beagle steps in. If we have an injury on defense, Chorney steps in. I just don't think upgrading our 2nd contingencies is all that important. Especially when it potentially makes us worse when the team is healthy, since Laich can PK and is much better suited to a 4th line role than PAP, and Polak wouldn't be in the lineup. The upgrade from Ness to Polak for 8 minutes a night in the event of 2 injuries to our top 7 defensemen... I don't think that's worth Vanacek. I don't think putting PAP in the top 9 over someone like Vrana in the event of 2 injuries to our top 9 is worth Carrick. Giving up significant assets to add someone who only plays, or only plays their ideal role, in the event of two injuries seems ridiculous to me. There's a point at which future value outweighs present gains, and this proposal goes past it.

Also, if you get to pretend the Leafs will take Laich in this deal, why don't I get to pretend the Leafs will still be willing to take on Laich for a price in the offseason? You don't get to act like this hypothetical is the only way we get rid of Laich.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Another vet wing means less time for Bura, Wilson and maybe some other guy (Galiev in our case though it doesn't matter because he can't progress enough with that icetime).

Imagine we had #5 dman from the start of the season. One of Orlov or Schmidt wouldn't have time to play and progress. Same with young wingers.

With Fehr and Ward gone we got the new noskilled guy in Wilson. That could be very beneficial down the road.

Also, Burakovski played as RW too. Ward would block that (but maybe would force Laich's department, which didn't occur and it's puzzling in the end). But Ward and Laich situations weren't connected on the ice (LW and RW), only from cap standpoint.

In the end, having upgraded Bura and Wilsona around summer 2017 is better than having very old Ward under contract at the same time.


Btw, can we sign Brouwer in the summer?! Chimera-Beagle-Brouwer 4th line

We will never know....but Ward in, Laich out....it may have forced Chimera to 4th line, not Wilson. Ward has played both wings in his career. Wilson could have tried LW in camp/preseason. Don't know what would have happened. But I'd rather have Ward (or Fehr) than Laich. It would eliminate the need for the team to worry about possible bottom 6 help.

 

[Ridley Simon]

If we have a top 9 injury, Beagle steps in. If we have an injury on defense, Chorney steps in. I just don't think upgrading our 2nd contingencies is all that important. Especially when it potentially makes us worse when the team is healthy, since Laich can PK and is much better suited to a 4th line role than PAP, and Polak wouldn't be in the lineup. The upgrade from Ness to Polak for 8 minutes a night in the event of 2 injuries to our top 7 defensemen... I don't think that's worth Vanacek. I don't think putting PAP in the top 9 over someone like Vrana in the event of 2 injuries to our top 9 is worth Carrick. Giving up significant assets to add someone who only plays, or only plays their ideal role, in the event of two injuries seems ridiculous to me. There's a point at which future value outweighs present gains, and this proposal goes past it.

Also, if you get to pretend the Leafs will take Laich in this deal, why don't I get to pretend the Leafs will still be willing to take on Laich for a price in the offseason? You don't get to act like this hypothetical is the only way we get rid of Laich.

The longer you wait for the Leafs to take on a bad contract (they are one of a few teams that can), means the larger likelihood that they take on Someone Else's Bad Contract. These moves aren't done in vacuums man. Laich is hardly the only bad contract out there. Playing the waiting game in this instance seems foolhardy.

It's easy to say "well, we don't need so and so depth due to injuries", when you aren't injured. I'd rather play Polak at 6 than Chorney, period. Most would agree that Polak is the better player, and would be a more useful add to the top 6 than Chorney. Add in that Polak can slot into any pairing (Chorney cannot), and his use is far greater, IMO. So Polak plays much more quickly in an inured top 6 than in your scenario.

Getting Polak is the real need, from where I sit, and getting rid of Laich is 1b. To do both in one move would be amazing. As long as we are not losing Samsanov, Bowey, Siegenthaler, Vrana, our 1st or our 2nd to do that swap (Polak in Laich out), then we win in spades.

Obviously if the deal included someone like JVR or Komarov, we'd have to give up more. PAP doesn't require that, and he's a far better solution to Top 9 winger than Beagle. If you don't see that, then ok.

Edit-- and Laich's role on this team was taken by Richards, so when Beagle comes back, Laich or Latta will sit. PAP can also play 3LW and Chimera slots to 4LW. Lots of options.

In the playoffs, there is Never Enough depth. There just isn't. Would I "waste" Carrick and Vanacek to ensure we have more depth than necessary, AND remove Laich's contract headache for the off season. Yes I would. Our main window is this year and next. Carrick and Vanacek contribute nothing to that end game, and depth for this year does, and Laich's removal does. We will just disagree. I hope you are right, that the Caps can win the Cup and we will never need to see Chorney or Ness in top 6, and Galiev getting regular forward shifts. But I wouldn't bet on that, when I simply do not have too.

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

The longer you wait for the Leafs to take on a bad contract (they are one of a few teams that can), means the larger likelihood that they take on Someone Else's Bad Contract. These moves aren't done in vacuums man. Laich is hardly the only bad contract out there. Playing the waiting game in this instance seems foolhardy.

It's easy to say "well, we don't need so and so depth due to injuries", when you aren't injured. I'd rather play Polak at 6 than Chorney, period. Most would agree that Polak is the better player, and would be a more useful add to the top 6 than Chorney. Add in that Polak can slot into any pairing (Chorney cannot), and his use is far greater, IMO. So Polak plays much more quickly in an inured top 6 than in your scenario.

Getting Polak is the real need, from where I sit, and getting rid of Laich is 1b. To do both in one move would be amazing. As long as we are not losing Samsanov, Bowey, Siegenthaler, Vrana, our 1st or our 2nd to do that swap (Polak in Laich out), then we win in spades.

Obviously if the deal included someone like JVR or Komarov, we'd have to give up more. PAP doesn't require that, and he's a far better solution to Top 9 winger than Beagle. If you don't see that, then ok.

Polak is the objectively better player, but I don't know if Polak with a max of what, 22 games to get adjusted to our system (during which he'll have to be bumping one of our top 6 out of the lineup in order to play) is better than Chorney.

So you don't want to move our 2nd this year (somewhere in the 57-60 range), or our 2nd round pick last year, but you're ok with moving Vanacek (2 years removed from being the 39th overall pick by the best goalie scouts in the league)?

My thinking is that for any injury to a top 9 wing, Johansson takes their place and Beagle takes over for Johansson as 3C.

 

[Langway]

Chorney can also play both sides while Polak can't so from a versatility standpoint he's going to be hard to top, esp. given his existing familiarity vs. what should be limited opportunity for playing time down the stretch for a pure depth defenseman.

Of course, if you're getting rid of Laich's contract that's mostly all that matters but they would need another fourth-line player if they get rid of him. Sill would be the closest thing they have to an internal answer since he kills penalties but that's well short of what's needed.