Series Talk: [A1] Toronto Maple Leafs vs [WC1] Ottawa Senators | Part II (TOR lead 3-2)

[Captain97]

There are 25 cases in Stanley Cup history where a team went up 3-0 only for the other team to win the next 2.

Famously there are only 4 cases where the comeback team ended up winning the series.

This would indicate a 16% chance of Ottawa taking the series.

Incidentally, we could also assume that Toronto has won 3, Ottawa 2, so Ottawa has a 40% chance per game to win, needs to win 2, so has a 0,4*0,4=16% chance of winning the series. Both approaches give the same answer.

So Ottawa has 16% statistically.

Normally I would agree. But given the Leafs track record/lack of mental fortitude. I'd say if the Sens win tonight game 7 is 90% going their way so in my mind it's 40% for tonight then 90% for tomorrow.

36% in my eyes.

 

[93gilmour93]

Normally I would agree. But given the Leafs track record/lack of mental fortitude. I'd say if the Sens win tonight game 7 is 90% going their way so in my mind it's 40% for tonight then 90% for tomorrow.

36% in my eyes.

 

[Sting]

It's been fun but that's it tonight for this series. Leafs big boys put some goals on the board tonight and the shutout loss last game will be the slap in the face Toronto needed in this series....

Completely agree. I don't see any way this Toronto team could lose a 3rd close-out game in a row at this point with the talent, grit, and heart they have on that club.

There's something different about the team this year. A quiet confidence.

They will win when it matters most.

 

[SpezDispenser]

Will Toronto ever come out with some type of killer instinct? This is rinse and repeat. They have to treat this game like Game 7 because even while they would be favored in a Game 7 in Toronto, the amount of pressure in their barn would be through the roof. And whats crazy, its only Round 1.

It's insane that it's only round one and that there's three insanely good teams to come. 3 OTs already too. My heart might explode

 

[HockeyVirus]

Normally I would agree. But given the Leafs track record/lack of mental fortitude. I'd say if the Sens win tonight game 7 is 90% going their way so in my mind it's 40% for tonight then 90% for tomorrow.

36% in my eyes.

I remember having these same conversations in 2023. Leafs ended it in game 6 against Tampa.

 

[Captain97]

I remember having these same conversations in 2023. Leafs ended it in game 6 against Tampa.

As a Habs fan I remember having them about the leafs vs Montreal too.

 

[pb1300]

It's insane that it's only round one and that there's three insanely good teams to come. 3 OTs already too. My heart might explode

Yes, you are in the stage us Panthers were a few seasons ago.

The heart thing will get worse, MUCH worse

 

[HockeyVirus]

As a Habs fan I remember having them about the leafs vs Montreal too.

Why play the games if the result just repeats itself? Past years really don't mean anything. If the regular season means nothing why do playoff series from 5 years ago?

 

[SpezDispenser]

Yes, you are in the stage us Panthers were a few seasons ago.

The heart thing will get worse, MUCH worse

Oh, I remember from 07 and 17. My ticker has takin a beating

 

[Captain97]

Why play the games if the result just repeats itself? Past years really don't mean anything. If the regular season means nothing why do playoff series from 5 years ago?

Normally I agree but this Leafs team clearly has issues in game 7's I'm not saying they are going to lose. Hell I gave them basically a 2/3 shot to win. But if they lose tonight I think they get in their own heads for game 7 and it's becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

 

[umma gumma]

Why play the games if the result just repeats itself? Past years really don't mean anything. If the regular season means nothing why do playoff series from 5 years ago?

So you bring up past conversations as a means of foreshadowing, and when someone else does the same you say whats the point in bringing up the past? I don't get it.