Series Talk: [A1] Toronto Maple Leafs vs [WC1] Ottawa Senators | Part II (TOR lead 3-2)

[Madap]

But the majority of the teams in the statistic about teamsnthat won when up 3-0 already won in game 4 or game 5

I’m not necessarily disagreeing with that. I haven’t looked into it. My point was just that you can’t just look at all series that were 3-2 and apply that here blindly

A better comparison is to separate the teams that were actually down 3-0 and then made it back to 3-2. Let’s see what % of teams won the series, and I’d expect it’s different from the rest of the teams that were never down 3-0. Probably a small sample size, but would be interesting to see anyway.

 

[Connor MethDavid]

Lmao, he went right through the blue paint, it’s not debatable.
Here is the replay, You’re talking about

As a Leafs fan, I'm a little jealous of Ullmark here. Would love to shove Marner and a few other Leafs players down right now.

 

[flyingfingers]

There are 25 cases in Stanley Cup history where a team went up 3-0 only for the other team to win the next 2.

Famously there are only 4 cases where the comeback team ended up winning the series.

This would indicate a 16% chance of Ottawa taking the series.

Incidentally, we could also assume that Toronto has won 3, Ottawa 2, so Ottawa has a 40% chance per game to win, needs to win 2, so has a 0,4*0,4=16% chance of winning the series. Both approaches give the same answer.

So Ottawa has 16% statistically.

Luckily for the Sens, historical percentages aren't all that useful in predicting an outcome in something like hockey where there are so many different external factors that play into each and every series. No two series or circumstances are the same.

Often times people present these odds as if they're games at a casino. But at a casino, a playing card is a playing card, and dice are dice. There are no externalities that effect which card might come up.

How do you factor in the Sens being so young and inexperienced that they won't get bogged down with what they're trying to do, and the Leafs core having so much playoff baggage that now the pressure of the entire hockey world is on their shoulders?

The sports book odds makers try to factor some of this stuff in, and right now they (Fanduel at least) have the Sens odds sitting at +300, so about a 25% chance, but that also factors in where money is flowing.

From a pure odds perspective, I'd probably give the Sens a higher chance, maybe ~35%.

 

[Dirty Mind]

This is all HFs fault!

Shaking my head in amazement at the pure audacity of this.

In 2023 Leafs fans did this and it came back to bite them in the ass bigtime.

Doing it again is like sticking your hand in the fire a second time and not expecting to get burned.

If it IS Toronto vs Florida in Round 2, expect Panthers fans to mock Leafs fans for this again just like they did in 2023. Deservedly.

 

[flyingfingers]

I’m not necessarily disagreeing with that. I haven’t looked into it. My point was just that you can’t just look at all series that were 3-2 and apply that here blindly

A better comparison is to separate the teams that were actually down 3-0 and then made it back to 3-2. Let’s see what % of teams won the series, and I’d expect it’s different from the rest of the teams that were never down 3-0. Probably a small sample size, but would be interesting to see anyway.

The only number I've seen so far (similar to that), is that teams who were down 3-0 are 4-6 in the game 7 that they forced.

So if you get it to 7... it's 40%.

 

[swiftwin]

There are 25 cases in Stanley Cup history where a team went up 3-0 only for the other team to win the next 2.

Famously there are only 4 cases where the comeback team ended up winning the series.

This would indicate a 16% chance of Ottawa taking the series.

Incidentally, we could also assume that Toronto has won 3, Ottawa 2, so Ottawa has a 40% chance per game to win, needs to win 2, so has a 0,4*0,4=16% chance of winning the series. Both approaches give the same answer.

So Ottawa has 16% statistically.

Funnily enough, one of those 25 teams was the Sens in 2015 against the Habs. The Habs won the first 3, then the Sens won 2, then lost game 6 at home.

Sens fan know very well that they are still unlikely to win the series.

We're in the twilight zone where both fanbases think they are going to lose the series.

 

[TotalHomer]

There isn't a fanbase in the league that wouldn't love Marner on their team.
As a nucks fan I selfishly want the leafs to lose so they blow it up and let Marner walk, giving my team a shot at signing him. Sure his dad's a dick and he was immature in years past but I blame the laissez-faire culture created by the club under Shanny and Dubas.

I actually think that core just isn't built to take the next step in the playoffs but I don't put that on Marner, I just don't think it's the right mix especially because the guy paid to score isnt.
I see Marner more like a Pippen not an MJ but vitally important to any winning team
Marner is worth a ton, not sure the number you said but around what Miko got. Another guy clearly valuable but more a robin than a batman as we've seen since losing Nate.

Bottom line from my teams POV Marner would elevate EP with the added bonus of Quinn doing the same for Marner. The three of them on the ice with their IQ's imo would be a perfect fit.

Oh Marner has skill, a lot. In fact he's all skill. But it doesn't change the fact that when the going gets tough he's a mental midget and flops around like a little bitch. He doesn't have the mental toughness like some of the other smaller players in the league, like Brayden Point for example. That's why you see him diving on the ice, whining in the media or crying on the bench,

 

[sampollock]

fig fans said bring out the brooms
lol

here we go again

 

[NyQuil]

Funnily enough, one of those 25 teams was the Sens in 2015 against the Habs. The Habs won the first 3, then the Sens won 2, then lost game 6 at home.

Sens fan know very well that they are still unlikely to win the series.

We're in the twilight zone where both fanbases think they are going to lose the series.

Part of it is just the sheer randomness of hockey, especially in a close and defensive series where a single goal can make such a difference.

Goalie lets in a weak one or two, or a team can't stop going to the box for whatever reason, funny bounces, what have you.

You try and control as much as you can, but anything can happen out there.

I think the team that has scored first has won 4 of the 5 games, despite games being knotted up before OT.

 

[sampollock]

Oh Marner has skill, a lot. In fact he's all skill. But it doesn't change the fact that when the going gets tough he's a mental midget and flops around like a little bitch. He doesn't have the mental toughness like some of the other smaller players in the league, like Brayden Point for example. That's why you see him diving on the ice, whining in the media or crying on the bench,

and Matthews did so well?? turned the puck up for goal 2

 

[Senscore]

Funnily enough, one of those 25 teams was the Sens in 2015 against the Habs. The Habs won the first 3, then the Sens won 2, then lost game 6 at home.

Sens fan know very well that they are still unlikely to win the series.

We're in the twilight zone where both fanbases think they are going to lose the series.

I was there and I'm still pissed about that quick whistle

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

Funnily enough, one of those 25 teams was the Sens in 2015 against the Habs. The Habs won the first 3, then the Sens won 2, then lost game 6 at home.

Sens fan know very well that they are still unlikely to win the series.

We're in the twilight zone where both fanbases think they are going to lose the series.

I still have nightmares of that early whistle.

oh, what could have been

 

[swiftwin]

Part of it is just the sheer randomness of hockey, especially in a close and defensive series where a single goal can make such a difference.

Goalie lets in a weak one or two, or a team can't stop going to the box for whatever reason, funny bounces, what have you.

You try and control as much as you can, but anything can happen out there.

I think the team that has scored first has won 4 of the 5 games, despite games being knotted up before OT.

Games 2, 3 and 4 were crazy close 50/50 games that could have gone either way.

The Sens lost game 1 due to lack of playoff experience.

The Leafs lost game 5 due to bad playoff experiences.

Really curious to see how game 6 plays out. I'm expecting another 50/50 coin flip kind of game.

 

[Just Rude]

EDIT: Posted before I saw @tempofound's post.

I think this is right. And just for context.

In NHL playoff history:
-29X a team trailing 3-0 has won the next two to make it 3-2.

Of those 29 teams:
-8 went on to force a Game 7
-4 completed the comeback and won the series (1942 Leafs vs DET, 1975 Islanders vs PIT, 2010 Flyers vs BOS, 2014 Kings vs SJ)
-Of the four teams to complete the comeback, only the '42 Leafs were the higher seed (NYI, PHI and LA were lower seeded)

Bottom line? The Leafs can't lose this, right? RIGHT?

f*** my life.

 

[bobholly39]

Leafs are going to win in 6. I'm really not worried - Sens aren't going to manage a comeback from 0-3.

But - this doesn't bode well for Leaf fans. I thought a dominating 4 game, or even 5 game series win in round 1 could be the momentum they need to carry them forward to a long playoff run. But they're obviously missing that killer instinct. It's going to be tough to get beyond round 2 unless they change things up.

Matthews did not look good yesterday from what I saw. He needs to step up big time.

By the way - I heard on the broadcast yesterday, Leafs haven't won a 7 game series in 5 games or less since 1963. Is that even possible? That's insane lol.

 

[NyQuil]

By the way - I heard on the broadcast yesterday, Leafs haven't won a 7 game series in 5 games or less since 1963. Is that even possible? That's insane lol.

It's not because the Sens were swept by the Leafs in 2001.

I'm not sure if they are just talking about winning a series in 5 games.

The other stat was the Leafs had never been shutout at home in a series-clinching game since 1950.

 

[flyingfingers]

Leafs are going to win in 6. I'm really not worried - Sens aren't going to manage a comeback from 0-3.

But - this doesn't bode well for Leaf fans. I thought a dominating 4 game, or even 5 game series win in round 1 could be the momentum they need to carry them forward to a long playoff run. But they're obviously missing that killer instinct. It's going to be tough to get beyond round 2 unless they change things up.

Matthews did not look good yesterday from what I saw. He needs to step up big time.

By the way - I heard on the broadcast yesterday, Leafs haven't won a 7 game series in 5 games or less since 1963. Is that even possible? That's insane lol.

They swept the Senators in 2001 so that stat is incorrect. But they did say it on the broadcast…

 

[Summer Rose]

It's not because the Sens were swept by the Leafs in 2001.

I'm not sure if they are just talking about winning a series in 5 games.

The other stat was the Leafs had never been shutout at home in an elimination game since 1950.

Perhaps the broadcast was referring to the Leafs not winning a series in exactly 5 games since 1963 rather than 5 games or fewer. Who knows?

 

[bobholly39]

I think this is right. And just for context.

In NHL playoff history:
-29X a team trailing 3-0 has won the next two to make it 3-2.

Of those 29 teams:
-8 went on to force a Game 7
-4 completed the comeback and won the series (1942 Leafs vs DET, 1975 Islanders vs PIT, 2010 Flyers vs BOS, 2014 Kings vs SJ)
-Of the four teams to complete the comeback, only the '42 Leafs were the higher seed (NYI, PHI and LA were lower seeded)

Bottom line? The Leafs can't lose this, right? RIGHT?

f*** my life.

I don't think they're going to lose.

The problem is - instead of going into round 2 full of confidence and momentum, they're going to go on a whimper, as everyone will now be laughing/questioning how they almost blew it again.

 

[Silky Johnson]

More like a little nudge than a shove.

I would say "Marner throws himself to the ice after Ullmark touches him with one hand...."

 

[BallardEra]

Sens played to win last night and Leafs played far too passively as if they were fighting their nerves.

 

[Silky Johnson]

Y'all wonder why Leaf fans are obnoxious. Every time they lose a game HF celebrates like they won a cup. Annoying

Chicken or Egg?

 

[Just Rude]

This is all HFs fault!

What, it's about, 15, 20, 25 teenaged kids? Same as two years ago?

I mean, that proves a point. I guess.

 

[CokenoPepsi]

7 games

 

[Just Rude]

Leafs are going to win in 6. I'm really not worried - Sens aren't going to manage a comeback from 0-3.

But - this doesn't bode well for Leaf fans. I thought a dominating 4 game, or even 5 game series win in round 1 could be the momentum they need to carry them forward to a long playoff run. But they're obviously missing that killer instinct. It's going to be tough to get beyond round 2 unless they change things up.

Matthews did not look good yesterday from what I saw. He needs to step up big time.

By the way - I heard on the broadcast yesterday, Leafs haven't won a 7 game series in 5 games or less since 1963. Is that even possible? That's insane lol.

Someone else said that last night.

They swept the Senators in 2001. I think that's the only time. Still an insane stat.