MatchesMalone
Formerly Innocent Bystander
- Aug 29, 2010
- 1,612
- 1,071
I have a whole explicatory spiel on why use GM tendencies, if anyone wants it. But lemme get right to business.
1. New Jersey Devils - Jack Hughes, C, USNTDP - The first two picks seem pretty much set in stone.
2. New York Rangers - Kaapo Kakko, RW, SM-Liiga.
3. Chicago Blackhawks - Bowen Byram, D, WHL - Stan Bowman has picked out of pretty well everywhere in the first round... except for Russia. He's taken a bunch of USHL/NTDP players; many in the third and fourth rounds, and has landed a bunch who've played games - Stephen Johns, Tyler Motte, John Hayden, Vinnie Hinnestroza, Nick Schmaltz. Also Evan Barrett and Chad Krys are looking like decent prospects. So Turcotte is a strong possibility, but Byram looks like the BPA here to me.
4. Colorado Avalanche - Vasili Podkolzin, RW, VHL - Sakic has shown he doesn't mind picking out of relatively unusual sources for first round picks. Not a lot of top five picks have come out of Russia's second tier league, but not many came out of the AJHL like Makar did either. He hasn't picked much out of the CHL, so if not Podkolzin, I'd expect one of the NTDP players, maybe even Caufield.
5. LA Kings - Kirby Dach, C, WHL - Kings have picked mostly CHL in the first round during Blake's tenure there, although since taking over as top dog, he picked Rasmus Kupari out of Finland last year. Odds on favorite would have to be one of the WHLers.
6. Detroit Red Wings - Dylan Cozens, C/RW, WHL - No successful high picks out of USNTDP during Yzerman's tenure in Tampa. Last two first rounders out of the Dub, Foote and Howden are both looking pretty good so far. Yzerman is also the first GM on the list with a real sterling record out of Russia, and his one first rounder from outside CHL was Vasilievsky, so if Podkolzin is still on the board this is likely as far as he falls. And if Yzerman passes him that would raise red flags on the player for me.
7. Buffalo Sabres - Alex Turcotte, C, USNTDP - Botteril picked out of USHL 8th overall in his first draft and NTDP in the second round of his second draft as head GM. Strong probability that this is one of the NTDP kids.
8. Edmonton Oilers - Peyton Krebs, C/LW, WHL - Both Holland and the Oilers scouting staff have a few first rounders out of the Dub in recent years. Holland's only pick out of USNTDP was Dylan Larkin 15th overall in 2014. He does pick out of the USHL in general fairly regularly. Wouldn't be too surprising if they go NTDP, but WHL seems like the safe bet.
9. Anaheim Ducks - Victor Söderstrom, D, SHL - I remember doing Bob Murray's draft tendencies a few years ago, and nothing has changed. First round will be CHL or Sweden. Another Swedish defenseman seems too obvious though, right?
10. Vancouver Canucks - Matthew Boldy, LW, USNTDP - Not many NTDP picks for Benning either, but these players are too good too keep waiting. Prime conditions for a string of NTDP players from 10-14.
11. Philadelphia Flyers - Trevor Zegras, C, USNTDP - Chuck Fletcher has had some tremendous success at times picking non-CHL early, mainly out of Sweden and USHL.
12. Minnesota Wild - Cole Caufield, RW, USNTDP - No idea what Fenton might do in his first real draft as head GM. But I just can't see Caufield lasting any longer than this.
13. Florida Panthers - Ryan Suzuki, C, OHL - Dale Talon is another GM who who will pick high from mostly anywhere, but more often than not it is CHL.
14. Arizona Coyotes - Arthur Kaliyev, LW, OHL - So far most of Chayka's first rounders and high picks have been CHL. But there was Keller from USNTDP...
15. Montreal Canadiens- Raphaël Lavoie, RW, QMJHL - While the majority of Marc Bergevin's high picks have been CHL, he's gone outside Canada more frequently in recent years. Not a lot of success out of Sweden, junior A or USNTDP though, so Broberg, Newhook, York, might have to keep waiting.
16. Colorado Avalanche - Alex Newhook, C, BCHL - Again Sakic picks from an unobvious source in the BCHL. Safest prediction here is that it probably won't be CHL.
17. Vegas Golden Knights - Philip Broberg, D, Allsvenskan - McPhee has always liked picking out of Sweden in early rounds, so Broberg/Söderstrom seem highly likely.
18. Dallas Stars - Thomas Harley, D, OHL - Jim Nill has never once picked out of USNTDP as head GM, so York continues to fall.
19. Ottawa Senators - Cam York, D, USNTDP - Dorion has shown no hesitation to draft out of NTDP, so if York really does fall this far, this one is a no-brainer. Dorion picks high from anywhere in North America, but I wouldn't expect Europe.
20. New York Rangers - Spencer Knight, G, USNTDP - So far Gorton's first rounders have been Sweden, Czech, Russia, USNDP, Sweden. So Nikolaev, Broberg, Söderstrom fit. But I dunno, I have a feeling this will be Knight.
21. Pittsburgh Penguins - Brett Leason, RW, WHL - We have decades of data on Jim Rutherford available. Almost all high picks are from WHL, OHL and USNTDP. I also remember reading an interview years ago where he said he doesn't like drafting D in the first round because they take too long to develop and then next thing you know after they enter the league they're UFA. Well here's a forward out of the Dub already a year into his development.
22. LA Kings - Moritz Seider, D, DEL - Again, tough to get a read on Rob Blake this early. Not so obvious he'll go CHL as would have been the case with the previous regime. The Kings actually have a German scout on staff, Stefan Ustorf.
23. New York Islanders - Bobby Brink, RW, USHL - Lamiorello goes mostly to Sweden and USA Hockey for the first round. And let's not forget, this is the guy who picked Brian Gionta and Zach Parise (Brink is 5'8).
24. Nashville Predators - Ville Heinola, D, SM Liiga - Poile consistently picks from anywhere and everywhere in the first round, so who the hell knows.
25. Washington Capitals - Lassi Thomson, D, WHL - Honestly McLellan hasn't had much success at the draft thus far, which makes it hard to know where he might pick, as generally I expect GMs to go back to the well they found water.
26. Calgary Flames - Matthew Robertson, D, WHL - Treleving's best successes thus far have come from WHL and OHL.
27. Tampa Bay Lightning - Samuel Poulin, LW, QMJHL - No true data on Brisebois' draft record, as it is all technically Yzerman's, but every year he was there as AGM they picked CHL first round.
28. Carolina Hurricanes - Connor McMichael, C, OHL - Early in his career Don Waddell picked from all over the place in early rounds; in later years he went mostly with CHL and had pretty good success out of the O.
29. Anaheim Ducks - Kaedan Korczak, D, WHL. Again, always CHL or Sweden in the first round. Murray also almost never picks players under 6' in the first round, so Höglander, Pelletier, Nick Robertson are doubtful.
30. Boston Bruins - Antoni Honka, D, SM Liiga - Still a relatively short draft résumé for Sweeney, but perhaps he'll return to the pond he found Vaakanainen in.
31. Buffalo Sabres - Nils Höglander, LW - Botteril with a bunch of picks out of Sweden and Finland in his first couple drafts.
1. New Jersey Devils - Jack Hughes, C, USNTDP - The first two picks seem pretty much set in stone.
2. New York Rangers - Kaapo Kakko, RW, SM-Liiga.
3. Chicago Blackhawks - Bowen Byram, D, WHL - Stan Bowman has picked out of pretty well everywhere in the first round... except for Russia. He's taken a bunch of USHL/NTDP players; many in the third and fourth rounds, and has landed a bunch who've played games - Stephen Johns, Tyler Motte, John Hayden, Vinnie Hinnestroza, Nick Schmaltz. Also Evan Barrett and Chad Krys are looking like decent prospects. So Turcotte is a strong possibility, but Byram looks like the BPA here to me.
4. Colorado Avalanche - Vasili Podkolzin, RW, VHL - Sakic has shown he doesn't mind picking out of relatively unusual sources for first round picks. Not a lot of top five picks have come out of Russia's second tier league, but not many came out of the AJHL like Makar did either. He hasn't picked much out of the CHL, so if not Podkolzin, I'd expect one of the NTDP players, maybe even Caufield.
5. LA Kings - Kirby Dach, C, WHL - Kings have picked mostly CHL in the first round during Blake's tenure there, although since taking over as top dog, he picked Rasmus Kupari out of Finland last year. Odds on favorite would have to be one of the WHLers.
6. Detroit Red Wings - Dylan Cozens, C/RW, WHL - No successful high picks out of USNTDP during Yzerman's tenure in Tampa. Last two first rounders out of the Dub, Foote and Howden are both looking pretty good so far. Yzerman is also the first GM on the list with a real sterling record out of Russia, and his one first rounder from outside CHL was Vasilievsky, so if Podkolzin is still on the board this is likely as far as he falls. And if Yzerman passes him that would raise red flags on the player for me.
7. Buffalo Sabres - Alex Turcotte, C, USNTDP - Botteril picked out of USHL 8th overall in his first draft and NTDP in the second round of his second draft as head GM. Strong probability that this is one of the NTDP kids.
8. Edmonton Oilers - Peyton Krebs, C/LW, WHL - Both Holland and the Oilers scouting staff have a few first rounders out of the Dub in recent years. Holland's only pick out of USNTDP was Dylan Larkin 15th overall in 2014. He does pick out of the USHL in general fairly regularly. Wouldn't be too surprising if they go NTDP, but WHL seems like the safe bet.
9. Anaheim Ducks - Victor Söderstrom, D, SHL - I remember doing Bob Murray's draft tendencies a few years ago, and nothing has changed. First round will be CHL or Sweden. Another Swedish defenseman seems too obvious though, right?
10. Vancouver Canucks - Matthew Boldy, LW, USNTDP - Not many NTDP picks for Benning either, but these players are too good too keep waiting. Prime conditions for a string of NTDP players from 10-14.
11. Philadelphia Flyers - Trevor Zegras, C, USNTDP - Chuck Fletcher has had some tremendous success at times picking non-CHL early, mainly out of Sweden and USHL.
12. Minnesota Wild - Cole Caufield, RW, USNTDP - No idea what Fenton might do in his first real draft as head GM. But I just can't see Caufield lasting any longer than this.
13. Florida Panthers - Ryan Suzuki, C, OHL - Dale Talon is another GM who who will pick high from mostly anywhere, but more often than not it is CHL.
14. Arizona Coyotes - Arthur Kaliyev, LW, OHL - So far most of Chayka's first rounders and high picks have been CHL. But there was Keller from USNTDP...
15. Montreal Canadiens- Raphaël Lavoie, RW, QMJHL - While the majority of Marc Bergevin's high picks have been CHL, he's gone outside Canada more frequently in recent years. Not a lot of success out of Sweden, junior A or USNTDP though, so Broberg, Newhook, York, might have to keep waiting.
16. Colorado Avalanche - Alex Newhook, C, BCHL - Again Sakic picks from an unobvious source in the BCHL. Safest prediction here is that it probably won't be CHL.
17. Vegas Golden Knights - Philip Broberg, D, Allsvenskan - McPhee has always liked picking out of Sweden in early rounds, so Broberg/Söderstrom seem highly likely.
18. Dallas Stars - Thomas Harley, D, OHL - Jim Nill has never once picked out of USNTDP as head GM, so York continues to fall.
19. Ottawa Senators - Cam York, D, USNTDP - Dorion has shown no hesitation to draft out of NTDP, so if York really does fall this far, this one is a no-brainer. Dorion picks high from anywhere in North America, but I wouldn't expect Europe.
20. New York Rangers - Spencer Knight, G, USNTDP - So far Gorton's first rounders have been Sweden, Czech, Russia, USNDP, Sweden. So Nikolaev, Broberg, Söderstrom fit. But I dunno, I have a feeling this will be Knight.
21. Pittsburgh Penguins - Brett Leason, RW, WHL - We have decades of data on Jim Rutherford available. Almost all high picks are from WHL, OHL and USNTDP. I also remember reading an interview years ago where he said he doesn't like drafting D in the first round because they take too long to develop and then next thing you know after they enter the league they're UFA. Well here's a forward out of the Dub already a year into his development.
22. LA Kings - Moritz Seider, D, DEL - Again, tough to get a read on Rob Blake this early. Not so obvious he'll go CHL as would have been the case with the previous regime. The Kings actually have a German scout on staff, Stefan Ustorf.
23. New York Islanders - Bobby Brink, RW, USHL - Lamiorello goes mostly to Sweden and USA Hockey for the first round. And let's not forget, this is the guy who picked Brian Gionta and Zach Parise (Brink is 5'8).
24. Nashville Predators - Ville Heinola, D, SM Liiga - Poile consistently picks from anywhere and everywhere in the first round, so who the hell knows.
25. Washington Capitals - Lassi Thomson, D, WHL - Honestly McLellan hasn't had much success at the draft thus far, which makes it hard to know where he might pick, as generally I expect GMs to go back to the well they found water.
26. Calgary Flames - Matthew Robertson, D, WHL - Treleving's best successes thus far have come from WHL and OHL.
27. Tampa Bay Lightning - Samuel Poulin, LW, QMJHL - No true data on Brisebois' draft record, as it is all technically Yzerman's, but every year he was there as AGM they picked CHL first round.
28. Carolina Hurricanes - Connor McMichael, C, OHL - Early in his career Don Waddell picked from all over the place in early rounds; in later years he went mostly with CHL and had pretty good success out of the O.
29. Anaheim Ducks - Kaedan Korczak, D, WHL. Again, always CHL or Sweden in the first round. Murray also almost never picks players under 6' in the first round, so Höglander, Pelletier, Nick Robertson are doubtful.
30. Boston Bruins - Antoni Honka, D, SM Liiga - Still a relatively short draft résumé for Sweeney, but perhaps he'll return to the pond he found Vaakanainen in.
31. Buffalo Sabres - Nils Höglander, LW - Botteril with a bunch of picks out of Sweden and Finland in his first couple drafts.