A Call to Appleyard: Penalty Statistical Analysis

[NJGoalie]

I made an observation in the GDT yesterday that the referees are far more likely to call penalties on teams that are winning a game. I'm wondering if a statistical analysis is available for either the Flyers or the entire league that shows the breakdown of penalty calls with respect to the score of the game.

I want to see if the stats are as wildly skewed as I would expect them to be.

It seems like on a nightly basis, regardless of which teams you watch, the referees will watch 4 penalties on the losing team with no call, just waiting for the winning team to commit any minor infraction to give the losing team a better chance to tie it and go to the sweet, sweet entertaining OT.

Every game I watch that is close in the 3rd seems to be called with the purpose of creating late drama.

Click to read more...

 

[JojoTheWhale]

http://www.rob-mcculloch.org/exec_data_mining/penpap.pdf

 

[NJGoalie]

http://www.rob-mcculloch.org/exec_data_mining/penpap.pdf

This is amazing. Thanks!

 

[Appleyard]

That is a pretty awesome paper.

NHL wide data for this season:

Penalty differential when leading: -338
Penalty differential when trailing: +338


The Flyers are one of only 4 teams in the league this year who have had a negative penalty differential while trailing... (Philly, Winnipeg, Boston & Anaheim)

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

trying to find a puck possession stat page. thought there might be something at NHL.com

 

[JojoTheWhale]

trying to find a puck possession stat page. thought there might be something at NHL.com

Nhl.com is entirely unreliable at this point, sadly.

Try war-on-ice.com or corsica.hockey. If you need something specific you can't find there, I can probably point you in the right direction at least.

 

[NJGoalie]

That is a pretty awesome paper.

NHL wide data for this season:

Penalty differential when leading: -338
Penalty differential when trailing: +338


The Flyers are one of only 4 teams in the league this year who have had a negative penalty differential while trailing... (Philly, Winnipeg, Boston & Anaheim)

Do you see this as a statistical anomaly that definitively points to losing teams getting more calls on a regular basis? Based on the total amount of games played it seems like it could be negligible. The fact that only 4 teams have a negative differential when trailing, however, tells me that there is some value that points toward confirmation of the theory.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Nhl.com is entirely unreliable at this point, sadly.

Try war-on-ice.com or corsica.hockey. If you need something specific you can't find there, I can probably point you in the right direction at least.

looking for team puck possession.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

That is a pretty awesome paper.

NHL wide data for this season:

Penalty differential when leading: -338
Penalty differential when trailing: +338


The Flyers are one of only 4 teams in the league this year who have had a negative penalty differential while trailing... (Philly, Winnipeg, Boston & Anaheim)

that is pretty shocking that the Ducks are still on that list considering the run they have been on since Christmas. They must of been far and away #1 before that when they looked terrible.

 

[klutch]

Philly and Boston, I'm so shocked.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

looking for team puck possession.

Assuming you mean a simple time count, to the best of my knowledge, that data is not available. It's generally hailed as one of the obvious benefits to the SportVU type tracking that's on the way.