Prospect Info: 9OA: Nate Danielson

[Our Lady Peace]

The fact Danielson turns defensive plays (his reads are brilliant) 200 feet from his net into breakout offense most games at least 3-5 times per game on his own as an AHL rookie, is extremely telling that he can tilt the ice. He can skate, pass, and create lanes. Give him real NHL linemates and this player will be an underappreciated offensive player. People that don't watch, don't see this stuff

He's been doing this all season, and in virtually 90% of games. The offensive numbers don't materialize many nights, and he's had some unlucky bounces and lack of finishing ability. He also has two veteran linemates most of the year (Watson and Snively) that have notable deficiencies like speed and finishing ability

For reference he had two fast, smart, forechecking linemates (Mazur and Shine) against Dvorsky's team last Wednesday and the line dominated all night. They should have had 3 or 4+ goals and Danielson himself had about 8-10 shot attempts. I have no idea how they didn't win that game, but Coach Watson seemed to think the result wasn't enough and immediately split that line up for both games against Iowa

 

[SirloinUB]

It absolutely is stat watching. However, stat watching is still by far the best predictor of NHL success and there is boatloads of data to back this up.

Watch the kid some time. I think you will be impressed.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Maybe in J20s, but not in the SHL.

He had 18 pts in 34 games (0.53 PPG) in his D+1, while Danielson was in the OHL in that season. Also, Raymond was a full year younger since Danielson is one of the oldest players in his class.

 

[RedWingzz]

Exactly

It's still early, and to be fair this was my comment immediately after the pick

I feel like there's more offense than we are seeing. Not sure he's ever gonna score a ton of goals, but his skill and vision could still translate to a playmaking 2c. I'm actually pulling for Nate, I like him and I still think he'll contribute at the NHL level.

 

[Realgud]

Man, nobody said anything of the sort with Raymond, and if they did, they’re insane. Raymond put up a better PPG in the SHL at the age Danielson was in the OHL, and by Danielsons actual age he had put up 57 pts in the NHL. THere’s nothing similar about these two.

People had their doubts about Raymond, and I'm not only talking about Wings fans. 18 points in 34 SHL games in his D+1 after being drafted 4th overall in a strong draft was seen as very weak and that he would need time in the AHL. I remember it very clearly because I was on an island saying he could be in the NHL right away because coaches will love how he plays and that he would find production playing with better players as he already played the right way. Not sure how that surprises you, 18 points in 34 games for a high-end offensive talent definitely seems disappointing to the average stat watcher. And yes, something similar is happening with Danielson. Again, just my opinion but their situations are most definitely quite similar based on the type of player they are.

 

[lilidk]

It's still early, and to be fair this was my comment immediately after the pick

I feel like there's more offense than we are seeing. Not sure he's ever gonna score a ton of goals, but his skill and vision could still translate to a playmaking 2c. I'm actually pulling for Nate, I like him and I still think he'll contribute at the NHL level.

Same here , never liked pick, him and Wallinder, only 2 Yzerman picks. Wish them both the best. They are Red Wings so I cheer for them

 

[TheOctopusKid]

Honestly after 5 years of drafting at this point; Yzerman and the rest of the amateur scouting group probably have earned a bit of the benefit of the doubt here? Every 1st Rd pick they've made has generally panned out:

Seider
Raymond
Edvinsson
Cossa
Kasper
Danielson
Sandin-Pellika
Brandsegg-Nygard

Seider and Raymond are absolutely homeruns and were both generally off-board where when we took them people were like "huh?" and pretty upset and turns out, in hindsight, both Top end talents in their respective classes....

Even further than that, neither lit things up after they were drafted and people called out their development and why they weren't with the big club or if we were mishandling them, etc. etc... and guess what? Both turned out okay...

Same with Edvinsson - doubt when we took him - long back and forth that we're stunting his development - stepped in a looked like he was ready and started doing his job.

Same with Kasper... are we detecting a pattern here?

Literally every guy we have it's the same thing. The team seems pretty good at evaluating good talent and developing them accordingly so far where we have a really really impressive core of young players. Stop trying to call a kid a bust so quickly. Why there is so much anxiety around these kids is beyond me. In the last five years, it is apparent that the Wings know what they are doing. Give them time and be rewarded. Jeez..

 

[Air Budd Dwyer]

I mean, he's scoring at a very similar clip as Mantha in their first AHL seasons. Mantha scored at a .53 pace and Danielson is at .51.

But Mantha came in and was already a massive guy who could use his size on the wing. Obviously he had major compete, injury, and consistency issues which held him back but he was still able to produce solidly in Detroit.

Danielson is, I assume, playing center and we don't have to question his compete level. We know he's going to bring it. I think at worst he'll be able to match Mantha's Detroit production, which is a 53 point pace per season. I'm hoping that's Danielson's floor.

 

[Oddbob]

I mean, he's scoring at a very similar clip as Mantha in their first AHL seasons. Mantha scored at a .53 pace and Danielson is at .51.

But Mantha came in and was already a massive guy who could use his size on the wing. Obviously he had major compete, injury, and consistency issues which held him back but he was still able to produce solidly in Detroit.

Danielson is, I assume, playing center and we don't have to question his compete level. We know he's going to bring it. I think at worst he'll be able to match Mantha's Detroit production, which is a 53 point pace per season. I'm hoping that's Danielson's floor.

Comparing him or mentioning him with Mantha makes him seem worse not better.

 

[Air Budd Dwyer]

Comparing him or mentioning him with Mantha makes him seem worse not better.

He was the first Red Wings 1st round prospect I could think of/find that had similar production as an AHL rookie. Believe me, I was a MASSIVE Mantha loyalist upon drafting him and even I didn't feel good about typing out that post lol.

My point was that he's a better prospect than Mantha and with his motor, he couldn't possibly be worse than Mantha. Given their AHL production.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Honestly after 5 years of drafting at this point; Yzerman and the rest of the amateur scouting group probably have earned a bit of the benefit of the doubt here? Every 1st Rd pick they've made has generally panned out:

Seider
Raymond
Edvinsson
Cossa
Kasper
Danielson
Sandin-Pellika
Brandsegg-Nygard

Seider and Raymond are absolutely homeruns and were both generally off-board where when we took them people were like "huh?" and pretty upset and turns out, in hindsight, both Top end talents in their respective classes....

Even further than that, neither lit things up after they were drafted and people called out their development and why they weren't with the big club or if we were mishandling them, etc. etc... and guess what? Both turned out okay...

Same with Edvinsson - doubt when we took him - long back and forth that we're stunting his development - stepped in a looked like he was ready and started doing his job.

Same with Kasper... are we detecting a pattern here?

Literally every guy we have it's the same thing. The team seems pretty good at evaluating good talent and developing them accordingly so far where we have a really really impressive core of young players. Stop trying to call a kid a bust so quickly. Why there is so much anxiety around these kids is beyond me. In the last five years, it is apparent that the Wings know what they are doing. Give them time and be rewarded. Jeez..

I totally agree and I hope I am proven wrong with the concerns I do have. Also want to say by no means am I saying Danielson is a bust or anything close to that. Just a bit concerned by his production. That’s it. There’s room for something in between “don’t question anything and he will be totally fine and hit his potential” and “he’s a total bust”

 

[Henkka]

It absolutely is stat watching. However, stat watching is still by far the best predictor of NHL success and there is boatloads of data to back this up.

I also like "prevent the stats" watching.

Matchetmatically not too hard see from stats, who will score and see from advanced stats, who will not score against somebody and calculate the relative difference.

Those Barkov's and Bergeron's will go this way.

I'm not really concerned about Danielson's scoring, because I've seen the skill. Skill won't disappear.

 

[newfy]

It’s crazy to you that people are questioning a 20 year old top 10 pick in the AHL, one of the oldest in the draft class, who is putting up sub 0.5PPG numbers while playing top minutes including Pp time? And being out produced big time by many players taken after him, including the one right after?

Again, not saying he’s a bust or any of the sort. But I am legitimately baffled at some of the takes on here. It’s the least crazy thing to be questioning Danielsons development. The same people here were calling Dvorsky a bust when he put up 0 pts in the SHL in his D+1…

I think its the difference of people watching him play and stat watching, and I think its crazy that its still going on after seeing Kasper last season.

Danielson is in a similar role, on a similar team with similar production as Kasper last year. A lot of the same people complaining about Danielson were the ones calling Kasper a bust last year. Now, Kasper looks like a stud a year later.

I would/ love to see him put up a point per game, but Grand Rapids has not been a high scoring team and these young centers have been leaders in the AHL as rookies. Some other AHL teams have young guys come in and light the league up like on the Sabres and Sens farm teams, and then hit the league and the wings players end up better.

 

[schuelma24]

I think its the difference of people watching him play and stat watching, and I think its crazy that its still going on after seeing Kasper last season.

Danielson is in a similar role, on a similar team with similar production as Kasper last year. A lot of the same people complaining about Danielson were the ones calling Kasper a bust last year. Now, Kasper looks like a stud a year later.

I would/ love to see him put up a point per game, but Grand Rapids has not been a high scoring team and these young centers have been leaders in the AHL as rookies. Some other AHL teams have young guys come in and light the league up like on the Sabres and Sens farm teams, and then hit the league and the wings players end up better.

Re: Kasper and Danielson, at least my eye test. Last year in November/December I thought Marco looked almost invisible and Lombardi stood out more for me. Obviously he figured things out towards the end of the year, but in my viewings of Danielson so far I've noticed him every time on the ice, even when not scoring.

20 assists is pretty solid and shows he can be a playmaker. Needs to shoot more and needs to score more - I'm sure everyone agrees with that.

 

[Frk It]

I think its the difference of people watching him play and stat watching, and I think its crazy that its still going on after seeing Kasper last season.

Danielson is in a similar role, on a similar team with similar production as Kasper last year. A lot of the same people complaining about Danielson were the ones calling Kasper a bust last year. Now, Kasper looks like a stud a year later.

I would/ love to see him put up a point per game, but Grand Rapids has not been a high scoring team and these young centers have been leaders in the AHL as rookies. Some other AHL teams have young guys come in and light the league up like on the Sabres and Sens farm teams, and then hit the league and the wings players end up better.

It's not even that. You have to give these kids some time to face adversity when they jump a level in play and see if they can adjust and push through it.

 

[RedHawkDown]

All I can say is that I'm encouraged by those who watch him and really do see a lot of positives, and I look forward to eating a gigantic serving of crow.

 

[Hazy Little Thing]

I think its the difference of people watching him play and stat watching, and I think its crazy that its still going on after seeing Kasper last season.

Danielson is in a similar role, on a similar team with similar production as Kasper last year. A lot of the same people complaining about Danielson were the ones calling Kasper a bust last year. Now, Kasper looks like a stud a year later.

I would/ love to see him put up a point per game, but Grand Rapids has not been a high scoring team and these young centers have been leaders in the AHL as rookies. Some other AHL teams have young guys come in and light the league up like on the Sabres and Sens farm teams, and then hit the league and the wings players end up better.

Seems like some people are forgetting a large contingent of Wings fans were calling for Kasper to be called up last year. Hardly anybody is calling for Danielson to be called up rn.

 

[Hazy Little Thing]

Re: Kasper and Danielson, at least my eye test. Last year in November/December I thought Marco looked almost invisible and Lombardi stood out more for me. Obviously he figured things out towards the end of the year, but in my viewings of Danielson so far I've noticed him every time on the ice, even when not scoring.

20 assists is pretty solid and shows he can be a playmaker. Needs to shoot more and needs to score more - I'm sure everyone agrees with that.

Danielson is shooting plenty. 58 shots in his last 27 games. Over 2 per game. Just 1 goal. You’re right though, he needs to be scoring. Absolutely putrid shooting from Nate, sample size is beyond “unlucky” at this point.

 

[SirloinUB]

Danielson is shooting plenty. 58 shots in his last 27 games. Over 2 per game. Just 1 goal. You’re right though, he needs to be scoring. Absolutely putrid shooting from Nate, sample size is beyond “unlucky” at this point.

Ehh, shooting luck (or lack there of) can drag on for an entire season. That's not to say Nate has been definitively unlucky.

 

[Hazy Little Thing]

Ehh, shooting luck (or lack there of) can drag on for an entire season. That's not to say Nate has been definitively unlucky.

Would love to see some examples of top 10 picks (forwards) shooting sub 5% for an entire season.

 

[SirloinUB]

Would love to see some examples of top 10 picks (forwards) shooting sub 5% for an entire season.

RNH put up a 5.1% in his second season (lockout shortened). He also put up a 7.1% in 21-22 (full season).

His career average including these two seasons is 12.1%.

I don't have a handy registry of shooting % variances in my pocket but I'm sure we can find others.

 

[Tatar Shots]

Would love to see some examples of top 10 picks (forwards) shooting sub 5% for an entire season.

Brady Tkachuk had an insanely low shooting % and high danger shot % in his draft year.

 

[SirloinUB]

Danielson is shooting plenty. 58 shots in his last 27 games. Over 2 per game. Just 1 goal. You’re right though, he needs to be scoring. Absolutely putrid shooting from Nate, sample size is beyond “unlucky” at this point.

Valeri Nichuskin put up 14 goals as an 18 year old, has a career average shooting % of 11.6. At 23 years old he finished the 18-19 season with zero goals in 57 games.

Jakub Voracek scored 20 goals 6 times (+ another season at 18) but carried a 4.1 shooting % in 2021-2022.

Henrik Sedin had a career average of 12% shooting. In 2018-19 he put up a respectable 50 points and finished the year with 4.5 shooting %.

Scott Gomez was never a prolific goal scorer but twice put up 248+ shots with a sub-6 shooting %

In total 64 forwards drafted in the first round have put up a shooting % of 5 or worse since 2000. if you set the line at 6% shooting that number essentially doubles (129 to be precise). So on average 5 forwards drafted in the first round put up a shooting % of 6 or worse per year. To be fair, many of these players would be disappointing outcomes for Nate which is why I pointed out some of the more notable ones (Voracek, Sedin, Gomez, RNH, Nichuskin)


Again. I'm not hear to definitively say Danielson is unlucky right now but I will absolutely push back on the suggestion that 27 games/58 shots is too big of a sample size to be "unlucky."

The bottom line is: Luck, good or bad, can carry for a full season.


I will add, I don't think Nate will ever be an exceptional goal scorer. I think he can chip in some goals but he will probably always be more of a playmaker than goal scorer.

 

[Frk It]

Who is Danielson playing on a line with most nights? It sucks we don’t have Hirose in GR anymore, I feel like he would be an ideal linemate for some of these young guys.

I am starting to get a little concerned when it comes to the conversion of scoring chances with Danielson. He didn’t bury his chances at a great rate in the W last year either, if we’re being honest.

But that said this is his first season in the AHL and he hasn’t even played a full season yet. From an eye test perspective I have never thought his shot was lacking.

 

[Hazy Little Thing]

Valeri Nichuskin put up 14 goals as an 18 year old, has a career average shooting % of 11.6. At 23 years old he finished the 18-19 season with zero goals in 57 games.

Jakub Voracek scored 20 goals 6 times (+ another season at 18) but carried a 4.1 shooting % in 2021-2022.

Henrik Sedin had a career average of 12% shooting. In 2018-19 he put up a respectable 50 points and finished the year with 4.5 shooting %.

Scott Gomez was never a prolific goal scorer but twice put up 248+ shots with a sub-6 shooting %

In total 64 forwards drafted in the first round have put up a shooting % of 5 or worse since 2000. if you set the line at 6% shooting that number essentially doubles (129 to be precise). So on average 5 forwards drafted in the first round put up a shooting % of 6 or worse per year. To be fair, many of these players would be disappointing outcomes for Nate which is why I pointed out some of the more notable ones (Voracek, Sedin, Gomez, RNH, Nichuskin)


Again. I'm not hear to definitively say Danielson is unlucky right now but I will absolutely push back on the suggestion that 27 games/58 shots is too big of a sample size to be "unlucky."

The bottom line is: Luck, good or bad, can carry for a full season.


I will add, I don't think Nate will ever be an exceptional goal scorer. I think he can chip in some goals but he will probably always be more of a playmaker than goal scorer.

This is good info. Looking back to last year in the W, he shot 11.3%. 13.5% the year before.