#87 Sidney Crosby Milestone Thread - History will be made (1600 points)

3074326

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Apr 9, 2009
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Sid would have beaten Jagr if not for the concussions taking out so many of prime years games.

But also Jagr would have beaten Crosby is he had been put immediately to 1st line and PP duty when he entered the league in 1990-91.

uwz0Imn.jpeg

I love that I still gasp when I see random Gretzky stats, I mean holy shit. lol
 

eXile3

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Dec 12, 2020
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Sid would have beaten Jagr if not for the concussions taking out so many of prime years games.

But also Jagr would have beaten Crosby is he had been put immediately to 1st line and PP duty when he entered the league in 1990-91.

uwz0Imn.jpeg
I don’t know about that. Jagr definitely had less talent to play with after Lemieux. No offense to Jan Hrdina.
 

vippe

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Mar 18, 2008
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Helluva player - amazing career. I've also become a lot more fond of him over the years.

1600 points is an amazing mark, here's to a few more hundreds
 

BillyOcean

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Jan 2, 2015
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Hes probably reaching the milestone of playing 750 games of his career with absolute bums. Anthony Beauvillier has added to that legacy.
 

Video Nasty

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Mar 12, 2017
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I know plus/minus is a janky stat, but it's kind of interesting that Crosby's career +/- is better than guys like Howe, Messier, and Yzerman. Only Gretzky and Jagr are higher pluses during their career on that list.

I’m not downplaying Crosby here. He’s obviously been the core of why Pittsburgh has been generally so successful throughout his career and it’s not surprising he has a plus-minus north of 200.

But there is some context for the three you mentioned that needs to be shared.

Howe doesn’t have plus-minus tracked in his career totals for the first 13 seasons of his career, which was 826 games. It wouldn’t surprise me to learn that his is actually something like +400.

Yzerman was on a bad team for a number of years to begin his career. He started -60 through four seasons. I’m not saying much here, but he was +244 for the rest of his career and played 152 games past the age of 36, though to be fair, he played more during his peak and prime years than Crosby did.

Messier played 484 games past the age of 36 and went -62. Crosby has played 6 so far and is -1.

Also of note is Sakic, who was a staggering -102 through just 3 seasons and as low as -108 through 6 seasons, and was still a career minus player even after his signature 2000-2001 masterpiece, when he added +45 to his totals.

All it really takes is a few minor minus seasons as Crosby plays out his final contract, and suddenly he retires below five of those players, if we acknowledge Howe’s missing numbers.
 

Hockey Outsider

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Jan 16, 2005
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Howe doesn’t have plus-minus tracked in his career totals for the first 13 seasons of his career, which was 826 games. It wouldn’t surprise me to learn that his is actually something like +400.
This is getting off topic, but here's a thread where HOH tries to estimate Howe's ES goals for vs goals against data for the first 13 years of his career (before plus/minus was tracked).

The data in table equates to approximately +366. Add that to his official +160 from 1960 onwards, and you'd get +526. That would rank him 4th all-time (and 1st all-time among forwards, though he's essentially tied with Gretzky). Does that seem like an unreasonably high result? I don't think so:

First, the official plus/minus data only captured Howe from age 31 onwards (and he went +160 in in 921 games, or +14 per 82 games). Howe was almost certainty a better player in the 1950's (when he won five of his six Art Ross trophies, and four of his six Hart trophies). He unquestionably played on better teams (Detroit led the regular seasons standings seven times in the 1950's; they only finished first, or even second, once in the 1960's). This analysis suggests that Howe would have been about +366 over 846 games (+35 per 82 games). That's a higher rate than the official data, but this would capture his peak years, on a stronger team - it makes sense that the rate would be higher.

Second, nobody should use this to argue that Howe is greater than Gretzky. Keep in mind it took Howe an extra 280 games to reach (essentially) the same plus/minus as #99. Gretzky is ahead on a per game basis (+29 vs +24 per 82 games). At the same time - Howe was by far a better defensive player than Gretzky, and I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that, in terms of career value, 26 seasons of Howe approaches the impact of 20 seasons of Gretzky. (The plus/minus data mirrors what makes sense in terms of their reputation - Gretzky clearly peaked higher, but Howe was an all-star level contributor for longer).

Last point - look at the all-time leaders in plus/minus. There are exceptions, but majority of them had long (15+ year careers), personally had a reputation of being a good two-way player, and generally played on strong teams. Examples of this include Bobby Clarke, Bryan Trottier, Ray Bourque, Nicklas Lidstrom, Denis Potvin, Larry Robinson, Chris Chelios, Scott Stevens, Al MacInnis, Serge Savard, etc. Howe is a perfect match for the profile of the majority of players above +350.

I know this is off topic, but I agree - Howe's full career plus/minus is almost certainly north of +400, and probably above +500.
 

Sidney the Kidney

One last time
Jun 29, 2009
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I’m not downplaying Crosby here.

I mean, you kind of are considering my post was more of an "huh this is kind of interesting" rather than me making some sort of declarative statement about what those stats mean, yet you responded with a half dozen paragraph fully fleshed out argument about why those stats are misleading.

It would be like someone randomly saying "wow it's interesting Player X lead the league in game winning goals last season" and then someone turning it into a discussion about how 90% of those were in blow outs or something.
 

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