Post-Game Talk: #80 | Flyers at Rangers | April 11, 2024 | Win

[smokey]

We're going to miss by a single point because they absolutely shit the bed on the easiest stretch of the year. There's absolutely no excuse.

Just one? The Devils found some juice to their game as well, so that's not an automatic W for the Flyers, even if it's a home game. If anything, I'd bet on them losing to the Devils but getting a win against the caps once they've already been eliminated by the Isles and Shittsburgh.

 

[CerpinTaxt]

"Don't tell people how to support this team....."

*antagonises at every opportunity.

This team is f***ing ridiculous. If they had won 2 games in that 8 game slide, then we're comfortably a playoff team. 8 f***ing games. We're going to miss by a single point because they absolutely shit the bed on the easiest stretch of the year. There's absolutely no excuse.

Buddy it's just an internet message board. Also I've never said there was a right or wrong way to support the team so don't know where that came from

Look at the positive side they are technically still in it?

 

[Appleyard]

NYI won, so they're in 3rd and hard to catch for at least the WC2. But NYI lose the RW tiebreaker to everyone.

WC2 will come down to Pitt at 86 pts with 3 left. Both Caps and Wings have 85 with 3 left.

The best the Flyers can do is 89 points / 29 RW. Probably won't be enough.


View attachment 850217

With NJ and Buffalo both winning, we had a chance to be overtaken if we had lost out.

Buffalo and NJ can still both overtake the Flyers, as they both hold the tiebreaker over Flyers... as can the Kraken.

But only if:

Flyers 0-2-0
Kraken: 3-1-0
NJ: 2-0-0
Sabres: 2-0-0

So 9th is still "technically" possible. Just like play-offs are still "technically" possible.

But given schedules? Only "likely" that Jersey have more than a ~20% chance to overtake the Flyers... mainly as the Flyers next game is Jersey and if Flyers lose that? Then basically down to Flyers losing vs Caps and Devils winning vs Isles in final games for Flyers to "pass" Devils.

Basically? Flyers are now picking 11-14th in 90% of circumstances.

 

[mr4tno]

When the pressure is off, the Flyers get goin'.

They are w mentally weak team. Always have been

 

[flyersnorth]

I saw two periods last night.

Now that's the TK we all know and love. Heck of a game from him.

I had the NY broadcast, and it was interesting listening to them talk about the Flyers. Nice to hear other perspectives.

Any day you beat the Rags is a good day.

 

[Larry44]

Buffalo and NJ can still both overtake the Flyers, as they both hold the tiebreaker over Flyers... as can the Kraken.

But only if:

Flyers 0-2-0
Kraken: 3-1-0
NJ: 2-0-0
Sabres: 2-0-0

So 9th is still "technically" possible. Just like play-offs are still "technically" possible.

But given schedules? Only "likely" that Jersey have more than a ~20% chance to overtake the Flyers... mainly as the Flyers next game is Jersey and if Flyers lose that? Then basically down to Flyers losing vs Caps and Devils winning vs Isles in final games for Flyers to "pass" Devils.

Basically? Flyers are now picking 11-14th in 90% of circumstances.

Yes, still mathematically possible but an L last night would've made it easier!

 

[Larry44]

Nothing new, been a fan since the mid 80's (Keith Allen was the last smart individual in the organization)

Mid-draft pick
miss the playoffs by 1 point
win the last few games will save Fonzie
Flyers will choke in 2024-25 season
Michkov will be our next "Giroux", no support and career wasted
Rinse and repeat

Wow, and I thought Briere was keeping his plans close to the vest, but here someone's leaked the entire Flyers Rebuild Manual to you!

 

[Curufinwe]

They're going to miss because under Torts they are the worst OT team and the worst PP team.

 

[Canfly]

Flyers cannot be eliminated until Monday night.

Saturday they could be eliminated with a Pitt win and a Flyer loss

 

[3mFlyers]

They're going to miss because under Torts they are the worst OT team and the worst PP team.

This can not be overlooked. Must have improvement next year.

 

[mr figgles]

Should have bet money on this game and the beating by the Canadiens. Never have the outcomes of two games been more predictable.

 

[VladDrag]

They're going to miss because under Torts they are the worst OT team and the worst PP team.

I still can't fathom how every post-game presser doesn't start with power play questions. I don't care that he won't answer them. Their powerplay is garbage by design and should be getting trashed by the media.

Over the last 5 seasons, there's been 158 individual teams. The 23-24 Flyers rank 158th in powerplay expected GAR/60 and 156th in GAR/60 according to Evolving Hockey. They are 155th in power play GF/60, as well.

However, they are 65th in CF/60. For those that don't know, CF means Corsi For. Corsi It's a measure of all shot attempts for, including blocked, missed, shots on net and goals. Basically what this means is that they just shoot the team shoots the puck from the outside and do not get many chances from inside the circles. It's not that they can't get setup, they can. But the elect to shoot from the fringes.

It is absolutely the feature of the power play. They believe that they should be blasting shots from the outsides, finding rebounds/having the puck bounce off of them. This is what Torts' said, this is what Rocky said. This is what Chuck Fletcher has said.

The figure below is where they take shots on the Power play (it's free at Hockey Viz). You can see the love to take them from each circle and the top of the zone. And they get no pressure from the middle of the ice. It's by design. They may be limited in talent, but they are not doing themselves any favors in their philosophy.

 

[3mFlyers]

I am shocked at how many times on the PP there is nobody in front of the net trying to screen the goalie or get a rebound.

 

[TheKingPin]

So, if we win Saturday and everyone else that matter loses, what are our odds?

We have similar odds to get the finals WC spot with the other teams right now. All are around 20%. It’s not like the Pens are breathing easy right now.

I still want the playoffs and I want the Rangers!


Edit:

So 30% if we win Saturday. Around 50% if all the other teams lose. Around 50% if we win our last 2.

Philadelphia Flyers What If?

The Flyers What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Flyers play future games.

www.playoffstatus.com

 

[Fight4yourRight]

I saw two periods last night.

Now that's the TK we all know and love. Heck of a game from him.

I had the NY broadcast, and it was interesting listening to them talk about the Flyers. Nice to hear other perspectives.

Any day you beat the Rags is a good day.

They were being very complimentary of the Flyers, and it just made me sick.

 

[Rebels57]

They're going to miss because under Torts they are the worst OT team and the worst PP team.

When they miss by 1 point it's going to really magnify the two Overtime losses in less than a week that happened because he started Cates and Poehling against the other teams best forwards. He also bailed out of both of those press conferences.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Wow, and I thought Briere was keeping his plans close to the vest, but here someone's leaked the entire Flyers Rebuild Manual to you!

well hes 100% correct..

#darkesttimeline

 

[Appleyard]

So, if we win Saturday and everyone else that matter loses, what are our odds?

We have similar odds to get the finals WC spot with the other teams right now. All are around 20%. It’s not like the Pens are breathing easy right now.

I still want the playoffs and I want the Rangers!


Edit:

So 30% if we win Saturday. Around 50% if all the other teams lose. Around 50% if we win our last 2.

Philadelphia Flyers What If?

The Flyers What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Flyers play future games.

www.playoffstatus.com

Tbh I think the odds are greatly inflated there for winning both.

Because the Isles are basically in over the Flyers unless go on a 3 game regulation losing streak. Odds of that are probably around ~10%.

Pens would need to lose 2/3 games in regulation as well. If they get 3 points in 3 games? Impossible for Flyers to pass them.

And even if Pens lose 2/3. Then have RWs and Caps who are ahead as well.

That is just not 50%. Pens losing 2/3 alone in regulation is not 50:50... more like ~30% chance given schedule.

Let alone adding in Red Wings and Caps doing worse than Flyers in run in.

Just off top of my head that would really, at best, give the Flyers something like a 25% chance of getting in if win both. And that is being generous.

 

[EdmFlyersfan]

Wow, and I thought Briere was keeping his plans close to the vest, but here someone's leaked the entire Flyers Rebuild Manual to you!

I found Briere's plans on a paper napkin at Dunkin Donuts...

 

[Embiid]

I found Briere's plans on a paper napkin at Dunkin Donuts...

After Flahr ate the cream filled donut resting on it....

 

[EdmFlyersfan]

I still can't fathom how every post-game presser doesn't start with power play questions. I don't care that he won't answer them. Their powerplay is garbage by design and should be getting trashed by the media.

That one reporter Jackie (?) has asked a couple of times about the PP and Torts just shuts her down...no other reporter has any courage to ask him or at least follow-up after.

 

[Chicken N Raffls]

I still can't fathom how every post-game presser doesn't start with power play questions. I don't care that he won't answer them. Their powerplay is garbage by design and should be getting trashed by the media.

Over the last 5 seasons, there's been 158 individual teams. The 23-24 Flyers rank 158th in powerplay expected GAR/60 and 156th in GAR/60 according to Evolving Hockey. They are 155th in power play GF/60, as well.

However, they are 65th in CF/60. For those that don't know, CF means Corsi For. Corsi It's a measure of all shot attempts for, including blocked, missed, shots on net and goals. Basically what this means is that they just shoot the team shoots the puck from the outside and do not get many chances from inside the circles. It's not that they can't get setup, they can. But the elect to shoot from the fringes.

It is absolutely the feature of the power play. They believe that they should be blasting shots from the outsides, finding rebounds/having the puck bounce off of them. This is what Torts' said, this is what Rocky said. This is what Chuck Fletcher has said.

The figure below is where they take shots on the Power play (it's free at Hockey Viz). You can see the love to take them from each circle and the top of the zone. And they get no pressure from the middle of the ice. It's by design. They may be limited in talent, but they are not doing themselves any favors in their philosophy.

View attachment 850406

While I don't get into the fancy stats myself, I appreciate the work you and others do here to help educate folks.

One thing I will say where my eye matches what you're saying here is with Tippett specifically. It seems like every time he is on the PP they try to set him up. I get that he has a nasty shot, but you would think he's Ovechkin with the way they focus on him. I've watched other players pass up pretty good looks, either for a shot or pass to someone else, to try and force feed him. We can't know whether that's just the players making the decisions on ice, or if it's coaching, but it happens enough that it sure seems to be by design.

 

[Larry44]

I found Briere's plans on a paper napkin at Dunkin Donuts...

Were the initials KJ on it?

 

[EdmFlyersfan]

Were the initials KJ on it?

Kim Johnsson?

 

[TheKingPin]

Tbh I think the odds are greatly inflated there for winning both.

Because the Isles are basically in over the Flyers unless go on a 3 game regulation losing streak. Odds of that are probably around ~10%.

Pens would need to lose 2/3 games in regulation as well. If they get 3 points in 3 games? Impossible for Flyers to pass them.

And even if Pens lose 2/3. Then have RWs and Caps who are ahead as well.

That is just not 50%. Pens losing 2/3 alone in regulation is not 50:50... more like ~30% chance given schedule.

Let alone adding in Red Wings and Caps doing worse than Flyers in run in.

Just off top of my head that would really, at best, give the Flyers something like a 25% chance of getting in if win both. And that is being generous.

I was hoping that if anyone one last night, it would be the caps since we play them still and could get a 4pt swing. Massive collapse is extremely disappointing