Prospect Info: 71st Overall Leevi Merilainen G, Fin, Karpat Jr

[Hale The Villain]

We need to keep the depth right now, especially until we can see how Ullmark plays. Very likely Forsberg gets claimed with how he has played lately and then we're 1 injury away from failing to make the playoffs.

What exactly do you mean by "how he has played lately"?

Forsberg has a .898 SV% in 2025 thus far through 8 games.

He's been slightly better than he was earlier in the season but that's still not good.

It's highly unlikely his 2.75M contract gets claimed. Not only is he not a good goaltender but he's twice as expensive as most team's backups.

 

[ottawagm]

What exactly do you mean by "how he has played lately"?

Forsberg has a .898 SV% in 2025 thus far through 8 games.

He's been slightly better than he was earlier in the season but that's still not good.

It's highly unlikely his 2.75M contract gets claimed. Not only is he not a good goaltender but he's twice as expensive as most team's backups.

He has 3x 0.960 in the last 5, one < 0.900 against Washington where the team let off the gas against the best team in the league.

His other <0.900 was 0.769 in the game against NYR where the team didn't show up and Merilainen was pulled to save him.

If I was any team chasing us for the playoffs with cap space and a waiver exempt goalie, I would claim him to mess up our own chances. MTL, NYI etc. could claim just to hope we have injuries later. And then I'm sure that some teams would see him as a better backup option on its own.

 

[Xspyrit]

Don't forget the 4 Nations break is coming up, only 4 games left before it and Ullmark will most likely play 3 of them. In the meantime, Merilainen NEEDS to play so Belleville might be the best place for him.

But after the tournament, something will need to happen

What about we retain 50% on Forsberg to trade him? Or maybe it would be smart to keep him to play it safe in case of injuries, to make sure that Sogaard wouldn't play as he is still not NHL ready. Speaking of this, I think that the 19 games he played in 2022-23 when he was not ready really hurt his development, which is not surprising as we were still in Dorion's Era.

Damn it feels good to be progressively moving on from it

I think Merilainen saved the season. In the first half, Forsberg was hot garbage, and Ullmark's been up and down, in and out.

Ullmark's 5 game win streak in December got us back into contention but then he goes down. The season was hanging by a thread. In comes Merilainen who goes 8-3-1 with 0.925% and a miniscule 1.99.

He rejuvenated the whole team, including Forsberg. The team is playing amazing because they know they have reliable goaltending, for a change.

Everyone keeps saying it but it bears repeating; his calm demeanor and confidence is just so impressive.

Forsberg struggled until mid-January (bad 8 games stretch) but he didn't have such a bad start with 3 quality starts in his first 6 games, including 2 shutouts.

I think Ullmark saved the season. His run from November 27th to December 19th was nothing short of incredible. 8-0-1, 1.43 GAA, 0.954 SV%. He literally stood on his head when the team was not playing its best hockey and the players were still figuring out the system and such. Now the whole team is playing solid defensive hockey and give their goalies a really good chance to win the games.

That being said, Merilainen also deserves a ton of credit as he has played really solid, especially for a pure rookie. He kept the same level of goaltending that Ullmark was providing which is what nobody really expected. We could say that both saved the season.

That got me curious, just checked the GSAA/60, among goalies who played at least 500 mins this season :

1- Anthony Stolarz
2- Connor Hellebuyck
3- Leevi Merilainen
4- Logan Thompson
5- Darcy Kuemper
6- Andrei Vasilevskiy
7- Dustin Wolf
8- Mackenzie Blackwood
9- Joey Daccord
10- Linus Ullmark
11- Filip Gustavsson
17- Cam Talbot
48- Joonas Korpisalo
51- Anton Forsberg

Care to say that we are the NHL elite goaltending pipeline? Even Marcus Hogberg only played 332 mins but his GSAA/60 is even higher than Stolarz lol

 

[Hale The Villain]

He has 3x 0.960 in the last 5, one < 0.900 against Washington where the team let off the gas against the best team in the league.

His other <0.900 was 0.769 in the game against NYR where the team didn't show up and Merilainen was pulled to save him.

If I was any team chasing us for the playoffs with cap space and a waiver exempt goalie, I would claim him to mess up our own chances.

He's very inconsistent, much moreso than Merilainen, which isn't what you'd expect from a veteran.

You can't just pretend the bad games don't exist. Have to look at the full picture, which is mediocre at best.

A team claiming Forsberg would be doing us a favour if it means Ullmark and Merilainen start more games.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

We risk losing our entire season if Ullmark goes down again and we don't have Forsberg as a tandem with Merrilainen. Ending up with our playoff hopes resting on Merilainen / Sogaard would be a miscalculation of epic proportions. Given the luxury of depth, contingency planning is king at this point in the season with Ullmark a major question mark.

You are right, Forsberg looks like a downgrade on Merrilainen (although I think there's some exaggerating by how much, Forsy has been great too) but how detrimental that downgrade is for one game out of 4 or 5 is the question. I would say it is negligible considering how Forsy is playing and the cherry picked matchups he would get. That negligible difference to me does not justify the risk of ending up with two rookies carrying the load for 1/3 of the season. The likelihood of that is very real and if Merilainen struggled in that situation, Staios would never live it down.

I get what you're putting down and the logic behind it, I just can't jive with the difference being described as negligible or that it's being exaggerated so we can leave it at that as our agree to disagree. The move makes sense from a personnel management perspective, but I think they're downgrading the position to do it and there's an argument that by the end, we could end up pointing to it as the difference if they don't get in. I even think Merilainen has earned it to at least get a few spot starts here and there because of how good he's been. It's been remarkable to watch how good and how poised he's been. If Forsberg hadn't struggled so much over the last year and a half I might feel more confident, but a few starts now (5 or so?) of quality play while still rocking below league average save % just isn't selling me over the guy putting up All-Star numbers and, at least right now, feels like a guaranteed win every night he's put in.

Ultimately, it's Ullmark's net anyways, but I desperately want them to get in and it's hard to swallow a move that could impact that negatively.

 

[ottawagm]

He's very inconsistent, much moreso than Merilainen, which isn't what you'd expect from a veteran.

You can't just pretend the bad games don't exist. Have to look at the full picture, which is mediocre at best.

A team claiming Forsberg would be doing us a favour if it means Ullmark and Merilainen start more games.

Until Ullmark gets hurt and we miss the playoffs.

No reason to do anything risky right now. If Forsberg plays poorly, then you can waive him after the break if you want, or go pickup a new goalie at the deadline in a swap.

You have to remember that with the 4 nations, the deadline is ~ 2 weeks (9 games) away. How many do you expect Forsberg to start of those 9, 2-3? Is the risk of losing G depth worth slightly better play in 2-3 games, when Forsberg has played well in the last 4 where the team showed up to play?

 

[Tuna99]

I was thinking of Binnington too in case Ullmark isn't healthy for the playoffs and it's Leevi instead. If that were to happen, the Sens story will look more and more like the St. Louis run in 2019.

They have an L.A. Kimgs the first time vibes - dirt bag coach, elite 2 way dman, elite goalie, all the right type of forwards - size, tenacity, patience and a belief they can win it all playing low scoring games

 

[SENATOR]

d

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

Ullmark is the #1. He’s being paid like one and he has the experience to shoulder the responsibility.

But that doesn’t mean you don’t start Leevi if he’s playing better.

He's also injury prone. Need a back-up that can step in and play like a No. 1 for a stretch.

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

There it is. Have to think this will be the last time he gets sent down. He'll be back for good next season.

 

[NyQuil]

There it is. Have to think this will be the last time he gets sent down. He'll be back for good next season.

A shame because he's clearly the better goalie.

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

A shame because he's clearly the better goalie.

Yes, it's a shame because on merit, he deserves to stay. He also needs to play as a No. 1 goalie to continue developing. He's only played 41 games in the AHL over three seasons. Being the "bell cow" down there for the rest of the season will be good for him. Forsberg's a UFA this summer and then the 1B job will be Merilainen's. I say 1B because Ullmark has trouble staying healthy.

 

[NyQuil]

Yes, it's a shame because on merit, he deserves to stay. He also needs to play as a No. 1 goalie to continue developing. He's only played 41 games in the AHL over three seasons. Being the "bell cow" down there for the rest of the season will be good for him. Forsberg's a UFA this summer and then the 1B job will be Merilainen's. I say 1B because Ullmark has trouble staying healthy.

I guess. It's still a different fit. It could also tank his confidence if he gets shelled down there.

He's a good fit here right now and we are desperate to try and snag a playoff spot.

I hope it works out but it's not necessarily automatic. I understand the why but it's still a big blow to the team.

 

[armani]

I guess. It's still a different fit. It could also tank his confidence if he gets shelled down there.

He's a good fit here right now and we are desperate to try and snag a playoff spot.

I hope it works out but it's not necessarily automatic. I understand the why but it's still a big blow to the team.

Playoffs? Did I just hear @NyQuil say playoffs? Seems like you drank the DayQuil yesss! We got this.

I don't like this move, but I also don't dislike it. It means Ullmark is back and ready to face #1 duties. Merilainen will be back soon enough and definitely as part of the dark aces (post season roster) and could potentially even back up some games, depending on how things flow. He seems like a guy who knows his role and job, and he can see that he is likely #2 next year with Forsberg gone and Sogaard being SoBad.

Fortunately, the Belleville team under David Bell is a pesky one that seems to find ways to compete and win, so hopefully our boy Virgin, currently the franchise's best prospect, will keep getting better and hungrier for the next call up.

I always keep a side eye on BSens, now I have more reasons to catch some live games. A stream here, perhaps a trip there to Belleville.