Prospect Info: 71st Overall Leevi Merilainen G, Fin, Karpat Jr

[Icelevel]

Leevi was a god send... He should have been #1 in Belleville and our 1st callup. Sogaard was nothing but shakey.

Leevi plays the position with such poise and he makes tough saves look easy

He’s pretty much the opposite of Sogaard.
Don’t know what it means for sogaards future but am happy to stick with leevi

 

[OD99]

He should have been #1 in the AHL and our 1st call up last year.

It's hard to project goalies, but his poise at the NHL level is hard to ignore. Obviously he can't keep this pace up, but make the expected save isn't something we are used to, so even if he only does that we are way ahead!

3 shutouts and a 0-0 draw into OT in 13 games...it's incredible what he has done.

 

[thinkwild]

This string of success is like the Hamburgular run. If Ullmark struggles once he returns, at what point do you make Leevi the starter? I know in 2015 it burned us when we elected to go with Hammond against the Habs in the playoffs. By the time Andy saw the net, the series was basically over.

It’s funny that I was thinking im still a little scarred by the deception of the hamburglar run which is keeping me a little leery of anointing Leevi as ready before he has faced adversity and come out of it. Like Forsberg has recently.

Although all through that hamburglar run for posterity, I was thinking, this guy isn’t that good, he is riding some amazing heater or something. I guess kinda like many feel about Forsberg now. But I don’t get that feel at all with Leevi. He has been remarkable. And my overconfidence worries me lol.

Having the three goalies can be a real luxury for the stretch especially since we are still not certain about Ullmark. If we could trade Forsy for a 2nd then we likely have to do it. But if all that’s offered is a 4th, is that worth more than the luxury of depth for the rest of the season? Although we do seem to have done pretty good with 4th rounders lately.

 

[aragorn]

Merilainen with another great game & another shutout, he is definitely our best prospect. Why can't he keep this up & replace Forsberg on the roster next season?

 

[thinkwild]

Merilainen with another great game & another shutout, he is definitely our best prospect. Why can't he keep this up & replace Forsberg on the roster next season?

He may well be able to. He might have to as we probably wont want to match what Forsberg could get elsewhere even if we wanted to continue developing the Silent Assassin in Belleville a little longer. Ullmark's injury turns out to be a bit of a blessing in that we get a longer run watching Leevi to help decide. But right now we have a great luxury which is now a team strength. A couple of ways to take advantage of that.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

Did Leevi get sent down to Belleville?

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Senscore]

Booing this move like the US anthem right now

 

[Hale The Villain]

Choosing to keep a .893 SV% goalie over a .925 SV% goalie is insanely stupid

 

[DrEasy]

Booing this move like the US anthem right now

Only makes sense in the context that Ullmark may suffer more absences down the road, and so we shouldn't risk losing Forsberg to waivers if we send him down instead.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Ya that's a tough one. I'm all for trying to keep Forsberg in house with Ullmark's health being questionable, but it's indisputable that Leevi is the much better option atm, even with Forsberg's improved play there's still a large gap.

A few extra wins or losses down the stretch could be the difference, so it feels like playing with fire.

 

[Sun God Nika]

I would have preferred to have Leevi play in the back to back and then send him down. Now we are guaranteed to see Forsberg...

Leevi has been consistent and has a way better points percentage than Forsberg. But I wont get too riled up over this. Goalies go down very easily and Leevi will be back up sooner rather than later.

 

[PlayersLtd]

Forsberg has been great, we can bump his value even more by keeping him around and Leevi is better off getting regular reps down in the A than sitting 4 out of 5.

This is pretty much the only way to handle this unless you want to risk Forsberg getting picked up on waivers and watch the depth that has kept us in the mix evaporate right before our eyes.

 

[ACLEVERNAME]

Belleville is playing ECHL and Varsity Sports scrubs out of sheer desperation right now. Leevi's going to see so much game time down there I can't hate this move. Keep playing your heart out and get ready for the permanent #2 spot next year

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Forsberg has been great, we can bump his value even more by keeping him around and Leevi is better off getting regular reps down in the A than sitting 4 out of 5.

This is pretty much the only way to handle this unless you want to risk Forsberg getting picked up on waivers and watch the depth that has kept us in the mix evaporate right before our eyes.

It makes sense from a personnel standpoint, but it's still inarguably a step down in on ice performance. Leevi hasn't just been good, he's been incredible by NHL standards.

 

[Hale The Villain]

We are only 3 points away from the 9th place team in the East.

Is Ullmark going to come in off a nagging back injury and play 25+ of the last 30 games? Doubtful.

So why wouldn't you have him split some starts with a kid who's been almost unbeatable with a .925 SV% over a guy with a .893 SV% that has no future on this team?

If we had a massive gap on our nearest playoff competitor I could understand this, but that's not the case at all. We need to maximize our chance at winning every night, and there's zero question Merilainen has been better than Forsberg at helping this team win games (just look at their records for god's sake).

Playing with fire here.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

We are only 3 points away from the 9th place team in the East.

Is Ullmark going to come in off a nagging back injury and play 25+ of the last 30 games? Doubtful.

So why wouldn't you have him split some starts with a kid who's been almost unbeatable with a .925 SV% over a guy with a .893 SV% that has no future on this team?

If we had a massive gap on our nearest playoff competitor I could understand this, but that's not the case at all. We need to maximize our chance at winning every night, and there's zero question Merilainen has been better than Forsberg at helping this team win games (just look at their records for god's sake).

Playing with fire here.

The way they've managed their starts, I'm at least confident the organization realizes they're getting a lot more out of Leevi than Forsberg and he gives them a better chance to win. Maybe they can call him up for some starts and yo-yo him a bit while Forsberg is the practice guy mostly, maybe with the odd start depending on Belleville sked.

 

[Emerica]

Makes sense and is totally understandable. We need 3 viable goalies for the playoff run given Ullmark’s injuries and Leevi is waiver exempt.

He gets to have the starter reps in Belleville for the rest of the year and will get to be the full time back up next year.

Also, he’s not being shipped to North Korea. If Forsberg shits the bed, you can call Merilainen back up and put Forsberg on waivers. If he gets claimed, you can probably trade for a 3rd goalie at the deadline for a late pick or C level prospect.

This is the right move.

 

[PlayersLtd]

It makes sense from a personnel standpoint, but it's still inarguably a step down in on ice performance. Leevi hasn't just been good, he's been incredible by NHL standards.

So has Forsberg lately. Merrilainen has been amazing but we are also the best defensive team in the NHL right now so we are making things easy on our goalies.

But regardless, things don't happen in a vacuum. We need to consider depth and asset management. Losing Forsberg at this point is not an option. I won't be saying that after the TDL but for now we need contingencies.

I'm also a firm believer that the best thing for Merrilainen is to go back and log big minutes in the A at some point. Returning and dominating is a great path for reinforcing habits and working on the deficiencies that our G coaches would have assessed at the NHL level. As much as we want to believe he is 100% ready, you need to slow cook young goalies and always consider what's best for long term success. To me, assuming we have options (which we do), that includes another stint in the A.

If Forsberg can fetch us a third or fourth at the deadline I'll want to move on then and put all our eggs in the Ullmark / Merrilainen basket. Need to see that Ullmark can go a month and stay health first though, and while were at it give Forsy some easy starts to pad his stats.

 

[LiseL]

Leevi is exactly what we need right now, an RFA goalies who can be bridged through Ullmark's contract, and then get his big payday in 4 years.

Unless Ullmark doesn't come back and Leevi plays 30+ games at .915+, they can likely get him at 1.5M-2.5M on a 2-4 year term. Going 4 years off of a very small sample size would be risky, but if it works out it means they have a tandem locked in at around 11M and don't have to worry about paying 4M-5M for a legit #2 goalie if Ullmark can only go 40-50 games per season.

Ullmark is clearly a tandem goalie. Most teams use tandems now, but not every goalie wants to only play 40 games. I get the impression looking at Ullmark's career that he prefers that situation.

Kotchetkov in Carolina might be a comparable to look at. He was drafted a year earlier and signed 4 years at 2M with a limited NHL resume. If they go 4 years, I'd expect it to come in a bit higher, and I don't know that the Senators would want to risk that kind of term off if what might end up being a 20 game sample size.

It was reported that Ullmark wanted to be a starter (as did Swayman) so one of them had to go. After the trade, he said he wanted to be a starter in Ottawa. Now, that might change because of his back issues and it becomes a tandem instead, but that would suck because they signed him to starter money. Oh well, will have to see how this plays out.

Always looking for the next Cam Ward or Jordan Binnington.

I was thinking of Binnington too in case Ullmark isn't healthy for the playoffs and it's Leevi instead. If that were to happen, the Sens story will look more and more like the St. Louis run in 2019.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

So has Forsberg lately. Merrilainen has been amazing but we are also the best defensive team in the NHL right now so we are making things easy on our goalies.

But regardless, things don't happen in a vacuum. We need to consider depth and asset management. Losing Forsberg at this point is not an option. I won't be saying that after the TDL but for now we need contingencies.

I'm also a firm believer that the best thing for Merrilainen is to go back and log big minutes in the A at some point. Returning and dominating is a great path for reinforcing habits and working on the deficiencies that our G coaches would have assessed at the NHL level. As much as we want to believe he is 100% ready, you need to slow cook young goalies and always consider what's best for long term success. To me, assuming we have options (which we do), that includes another stint in the A.

If Forsberg can fetch us a third or fourth at the deadline I'll want to move on then and put all our eggs in the Ullmark / Merrilainen basket. Need to see that Ullmark can go a month and stay health first though, and while were at it give Forsy some easy starts to pad his stats.

I get it from a personnel standpoint and some of the other reasoning, but those pretending we lose nothing here and that it's not a downgrade on the ice, are not being honest imo. Maybe that changes, but up to now that's what it is, its a downgrade. It could ultimately impact their season and that's fair for some to want to grumble about.

Forsberg has improved to decent backup level again and has arguably been good, certainly by his standards he has been, but the performance is still not really comparable. Merilainen has been incredible, stellar, unbeatable, however you want to put it. He's been putting up Vezina winner type stats in his short sample size. If he played like this all year he'd be getting Vezina votes. A week or so ago he was the save % leader in the whole league, with obviously not enough games played to count. Higher save % than Ullmark even. And while Forsberg is playing well its an even smaller sample size in comparison.

It is what it is, I get this is just what happens most times, but what they're giving up on the ice is still not comparable and it does make me want to grumble. If Forsberg comes out and loses games for them again like he was earlier, it'll sting. Mostly, I think I just want to hear people admit they're downgrading their goaltending in the short term to be able to keep an asset in house and that it's not just some no brainer swap where they lose nothing on the ice. It's not 6 of one, half a dozen of another type situation, it's dictated by contracts.

 

[LiseL]

Ullmark is the #1. He’s being paid like one and he has the experience to shoulder the responsibility.

But that doesn’t mean you don’t start Leevi if he’s playing better.

Or put him in if Ullmark falters.

 

[LiseL]

Only makes sense in the context that Ullmark may suffer more absences down the road, and so we shouldn't risk losing Forsberg to waivers if we send him down instead.

I'm not as worried if Forsey only plays B2B and the occasional game against a weaker opponent to not overtax Ullmark. Here's to seeing the version of Ullmark before he went down in December. He was lights out during that run.

 

[PlayersLtd]

I get it from a personnel standpoint and some of the other reasoning, but those pretending we lose nothing here and that it's not a downgrade on the ice, are not being honest imo. Maybe that changes, but up to now that's what it is, its a downgrade. It could ultimately impact their season and that's fair for some to want to grumble about.

Forsberg has improved to decent backup level again and has arguably been good, certainly by his standards he has been, but the performance is still not really comparable. Merilainen has been incredible, stellar, unbeatable, however you want to put it. He's been putting up Vezina winner type stats in his short sample size. If he played like this all year he'd be getting Vezina votes. A week or so ago he was the save % leader in the whole league, with obviously not enough games played to count. Higher save % than Ullmark even. And while Forsberg is playing well its an even smaller sample size in comparison.

It is what it is, I get this is just what happens most times, but what they're giving up on the ice is still not comparable and it does make me want to grumble. If Forsberg comes out and loses games for them again like he was earlier, it'll sting. Mostly, I think I just want to hear people admit they're downgrading their goaltending in the short term to be able to keep an asset in house and that it's not just some no brainer swap where they lose nothing on the ice. It's not 6 of one, half a dozen of another type situation, it's dictated by contracts.

We risk losing our entire season if Ullmark goes down again and we don't have Forsberg as a tandem with Merrilainen. Ending up with our playoff hopes resting on Merilainen / Sogaard would be a miscalculation of epic proportions. Given the luxury of depth, contingency planning is king at this point in the season with Ullmark a major question mark.

You are right, Forsberg looks like a downgrade on Merrilainen (although I think there's some exaggerating by how much, Forsy has been great too) but how detrimental that downgrade is for one game out of 4 or 5 is the question. I would say it is negligible considering how Forsy is playing and the cherry picked matchups he would get. That negligible difference to me does not justify the risk of ending up with two rookies carrying the load for 1/3 of the season. The likelihood of that is very real and if Merilainen struggled in that situation, Staios would never live it down.

 

[ottawagm]

Choosing to keep a .893 SV% goalie over a .925 SV% goalie is insanely stupid

We need to keep the depth right now, especially until we can see how Ullmark plays. Very likely Forsberg gets claimed with how he has played lately and then we're 1 injury away from failing to make the playoffs.