Post-Game Talk: #70 | Golden Knights at FLYERS | Mon., Mar. 12, 2018, 7:00 pm ET

[bennysflyers16]

Gudas w/ Manning:
+1.56 CF% rel
-2.95 xGF% rel

Gudas w/ Sanheim:
+10.50 CF% rel
+8.17 xGF% rel

Definitely injured.

This post will def be ignored. Imagine someone at the STH meeting asking that !!!

 

[bennysflyers16]

Which shows how amazing Ghost is that he was able to carry Manning for so long and still be so good.

It's crazy when the fancy stats completely align with the eye test, yet we have a few people and a coach that just don't get it,,,

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

Amac better be gone in the offseason, I can’t take another year of management making up excuses for a player like Myers or Sanheim not being with the team

Next year will be interesting.
Provy Ghost - set in stone
Sanheim Gudas - pretty much a sure thing
Morin Hagg - due to waivers simply have to be on the team
Macdonald - it is what it is

I just hope there is no long term injury heading into offseason, otherwise I fear one of the manning or oduya might be coming back.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Gudas w/ Manning:
+1.56 CF% rel
-2.95 xGF% rel

Gudas w/ Sanheim:
+10.50 CF% rel
+8.17 xGF% rel

Definitely injured.

Haha even someone (me) who is completely moronic when it comes to stats can see what that means

 

[JXC]

So it’s just by pure happenstance that they are constantly deferring to defensemen?

It’s purely your imagination.

 

[JXC]

Not for 5 to 7 years.

Too pessimistic !!!!

 

[JXC]

Whooped 'em again Josie!

I reckon so.

 

[gertbfrobe16]

Sorry to revisit this, but ...

PEB winning a board battle against Simmonds, but just watch Filppula on this. Zero effort. Just pathetic.

hangin out by the pool chasin the puck around lol

 

[gertbfrobe16]

They will make the playoffs. the Players will force themselves in. And by that I mean our best players. They havent been playing bad or poorly just not getting the breaks. Similar to the 10 game losing streak. The quality of the play during that didnt reflect the outcome of games. Hopefully Hak takes the leashes of of some of the players late in games and lets them keep pushing.

they have played poorly at crucial times on the pk at end of games protecting tied games and the last minutes of a period also with a lead in games they play poorly

 

[deadhead]

Gudas CF% with Manning 50.9%, without Manning 50.0%
Gudas CF% with Sanheim 58..07%, without Sanheim 47.21%

Gudas/Sanheim get the easiest matchups of all the D combinations.
So it may simply be that Gudas/Manning get tougher matchups.

 

[Beef Invictus]

It’s purely your imagination.

Hakstol has openly stated that he wants offense to come from the defense. He flat out told us he builds his system around that. It is his stated philosophy.

 

[Rebels57]

It’s purely your imagination.

Then why do the Flyers average the furthest distance from the net with their shots for the 2nd consecutive season?

It's not his imagination. It's that you either A) don't watch the games or B) ignore indisputable facts likes average shot distance.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Gudas CF% with Manning 50.9%, without Manning 50.0%
Gudas CF% with Sanheim 58..07%, without Sanheim 47.21%

Gudas/Sanheim get the easiest matchups of all the D combinations.
So it may simply be that Gudas/Manning get tougher matchups.

You think matchups account for that enormous discrepancy

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Gudas w/ Manning:
+1.56 CF% rel
-2.95 xGF% rel

Gudas w/ Sanheim:
+10.50 CF% rel
+8.17 xGF% rel

Definitely injured.

And Matt Read leads the team in CF% this season while being 2nd or 3rd last season. I guess he's one of their best players.
Some of these fancy stats have to be taken with a grain of salt. They aren't God-like ratings of a player.

For example, Gudas receives 59.8% offensive zone starts in the pretty small sample size of time he's been paired with Sanheim (another issue), vs. receiving 47.7 offensive zone starts in his time with Manning. I would assume (but don't know the stat for sure) that his quality of competition also has dropped due to Sanheim's careful deployment.

Lastly, as I always try to reinforce, I'm a fan of Sanheim's and want him in the lineup. I also think he's played two good games (for the most part) and looks like he belongs. I just think some fans overhype what he's actually accomplished so far in the NHL, which isn't much despite advantageous usage. Unless you think a small sample Corsi stat matters more than the actual scoreboard.

But. then again, maybe some of you do think Read is a top player, Weise was one of their top 5 players last season, and Sanheim is having a better season than Ghost and Provorov and Doughty.

 

[Hiesenberg]

I get the logic of putting Simmonds on that line. I thought Hakstol might take Lindblom off the top 6 and force Simmonds in there.
Other than scratching him and putting in a even worse player I dont know what else that could be done. I get it, the line sucks. But I think I can give Hakstol a pass on putting that line together.
I dont even know if switching Laughton with Flip with those 2 wingers would work. Simmonds is still struggling coming off the IR list and Raffl as you said is up and down.

I'd give Laughton a shot w/ Simmonds.

 

[Curufinwe]

The other problem with this team is they're just not good shooters.
They must miss the net more than any other team in the league (at least it seems that way).
Some of this is lack of talent, some of this is player psychology.

Notice on the PP the Knights crowded Giroux but left Voracek wide open - because they know Voracek will hesitate to shoot, allowing them to get over to his side and take away shooting and passing lanes. They really need to replace Voracek on the PP1 with someone who can and will shoot.

It's hilarious the way you fall back on bashing Voracek whenever Hak chokes away another game.

Voracek has the 4th most PP points in the entire league.

NHL.com - Stats

 

[FLYguy3911]

And Matt Read leads the team in CF% this season while being 2nd or 3rd last season. I guess he's one of their best players.
Some of these fancy stats have to be taken with a grain of salt. They aren't God-like ratings of a player.

For example, Gudas receives 59.8% offensive zone starts in the pretty small sample size of time he's been paired with Sanheim (another issue), vs. receiving 47.7 offensive zone starts in his time with Manning. I would assume (but don't know the stat for sure) that his quality of competition also has dropped due to Sanheim's careful deployment.

Lastly, as I always try to reinforce, I'm a fan of Sanheim's and want him in the lineup. I also think he's played two good games (for the most part) and looks like he belongs. I just think some fans overhype what he's actually accomplished so far in the NHL, which isn't much despite advantageous usage. Unless you think a small sample Corsi stat matters more than the actual scoreboard.

But. then again, maybe some of you do think Read is a top player, Weise was one of their top 5 players last season, and Sanheim is having a better season than Ghost and Provorov and Doughty.

You’re right. Let’s go with your coveted eye test and baseless assumptions such as an injury.

 

[Beef Invictus]

And Matt Read leads the team in CF% this season while being 2nd or 3rd last season. I guess he's one of their best players.
Some of these fancy stats have to be taken with a grain of salt. They aren't God-like ratings of a player.

For example, Gudas receives 59.8% offensive zone starts in the pretty small sample size of time he's been paired with Sanheim (another issue), vs. receiving 47.7 offensive zone starts in his time with Manning. I would assume (but don't know the stat for sure) that his quality of competition also has dropped due to Sanheim's careful deployment.

Lastly, as I always try to reinforce, I'm a fan of Sanheim's and want him in the lineup. I also think he's played two good games (for the most part) and looks like he belongs. I just think some fans overhype what he's actually accomplished so far in the NHL, which isn't much despite advantageous usage. Unless you think a small sample Corsi stat matters more than the actual scoreboard.

But. then again, maybe some of you do think Read is a top player, Weise was one of their top 5 players last season, and Sanheim is having a better season than Ghost and Provorov and Doughty.

What is the sample size for Matt Read this year?

 

[Ghosts Beer]

You’re right. Let’s go with your coveted eye test and baseless assumptions such as an injury.

I like advanced stats. You probably know that since you like to bookmark people's posts and monitor them closely. I just don't think they are God-like ratings as some people seem to treat them.
The human brain is a pattern seeking device, and likes finding solutions to problems. But just like you can have all the horse racing formulas and algorithms in the world, you can't come anywhere close to a perfect rating system for hockey players. There are too many factors at play.

I believe advanced stats are useful; I loved Moneyball; but I think too many treat them with too much deference, without enough context, and act as if they have found the perfect horse racing formula.

But when advanced stats tell you that Matt Read has been a top 3 Flyer the last two seasons; Weise was a top 5 last season; and Sanheim has been better than Ghost, Provorov, Doughty, and a slew of other big name defensemen, it sure is far from a perfect system.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

What is the sample size for Matt Read this year?

7 games, because he couldn't even make the team.
Last year's sample was 63 games -- 2nd on the team in CF%, if you say Weal's 23 games is enough to count him first.
The year before, 79 games, and Read was 4th on the team.

 

[Beef Invictus]

7 games, because he couldn't even make the team.
Last year's sample was 63 games -- 2nd on the team in CF%, if you say Weal's 23 games is enough to count him first.
The year before, 79 games, and Read was 4th on the team.

So you are using a sample of 7 games to make that declaration?


Methinks your point is faulty. I also think you're not doing a very good job of using stats. Have you accounted for quality of competition? Quality of linemates? Usage?

Or are you vigorously staring at a single stat?

 

[Magua]

Being a good play-driver in a depth role does not equate to one of the "best players" overall. It just means he's a good 4th liner.

 

[Starat327]

Being a good play-driver in a depth role does not equate to one of the "best players" overall. It just means he's a good 4th liner.

Edit: Boo

 

[Ghosts Beer]

So you are using a sample of 7 games to make that declaration?


Methinks your point is faulty. I also think you're not doing a very good job of using stats. Have you accounted for quality of competition? Quality of linemates? Usage?

Or are you vigorously staring at a single stat?

You're making my point for me. There are tons of factors that go into how good or bad a player is, and some people ignore that. I'm saying Matt Read stinks, even though over his last 149 NHL games he's a top 3 player on the Flyers in CF%. Some people give far too much value to CF% and other single stats.

 

[Starat327]

You're making my point for me. There are tons of factors that go into how good or bad a player is, and some people ignore that. I'm saying Matt Read stinks, even though over his last 149 NHL games he's a top 3 player on the Flyers in CF%. Some people give far too much value to CF% and other single stats.

Yeah, i mean. the only small difference is that no one said Gudas was the best player on the team. Not even facetiosuly. They used one stat to show that he isn't as bad as being said in the thread.

Then you purposely go full hyperbolic with it and try to correlate that to "matt read being our best player". It's almost the same. almost.