Post-Game Talk: #69 | Leafs at Flyers | March 19, 2024 | Flyers win 4-3

[nacc BLOCC]

because a rebuild needs a plan. a rebuild is not making your team worse haphazardly and hoping for the best.

 

[VladDrag]

Pretty much every xG model actually take into account shot attempts.

Blocked shots is an issue, albeit minor, people want to account for it but is just waaay too much work as shot block locations are where the shot was blocked and not where taken... so makes it impossible to scrape really.

I do think that it is up amongst the very best "basic" stats though. I mean, it predicts future goals better than actual golas as well as corsi. To such a close level once account for PDO fluctuation that is damn reliable in most cases.

xG is a great metric, depending on what question you're asking. As with everything it's nuanced. What the xGF value really tells you is how dangerous were your shots in total. A higher xG may mean that you have lots of far non-blocked shot attempts, it could mean you had 1 or 2 great chances, or anything in between. But, xG isn't the metric I like to use when reviewing 'controlling play'....BTW this is more in general, and not specific to you Apple.

Corsi and raw scoring chances for (SCF) give you a much better handle on which team was controlling play. SCF accounts for all shot attempts, not just non-blocked shots. However, this is only true if one can agree on certain statements such as, puck control typically results in shots attempts for, the team with more shot attempts for generally has the puck more, the team who has the puck more controls play, typically. If one doesn't subscribe to those notions, then everything else breaks down. But, if one does agree with those notions, then Corsi and SCF give you a quantifiable comparison as to which team is controlling play because they are shooting the puck more.