65th Overall - Jayden Grubbe

[NYR425]

I really think you guys are missing the boat on Jayden Grubbe. I asked Landy92Mack29 who was a frequent poster on his thread before he was injured about him and he had this to say-

"He's a 1st round talent who fell because of his injury. Plays a hard nosed 200 ft game and makes life hell for the other team. Will never be a flashy guy but one of those heart and soul types who wins you playoff games. Big steal where you got him assuming healthy."

Everyone is forgetting we finally have skill and talent, we need players to complement that. Guys like Grubbe who win faceoffs, are big, can skate and that are difficult to play against because they compete all over the ice are exactly what we need. His floor is 3rd line center, if he takes off and hits his ceiling we just might have a complete 2nd line line center.

 

[bl02]

watching some video of the kid and really some good stuff.
Seems like high character to go along with his high skill. Damn knee injuries suck but the plus is that he's young and ACL tear for athlete in their late 20's early 30's can be harder to come back from than someone his age.
I think a pretty good pick considering he was definitely going top 35ish before the injury.

 

[pld459666]

Sold after reading what Sutter said about him.

Glowing praise from a Sutter carries alot of weight for me.

 

[Ola]

Sold after reading what Sutter said about him.

Glowing praise from a Sutter carries alot of weight for me.

Yeah that was good praise. Hopefully he can overcome injuries and establish himself as a blue chip prospect this season.

I am excited about our last two drafts. It will not be easy to scout them, but with our resources we should be able to fare better than most teams.

 

[NYR425]

In the prospect rankings we are on #9 now with 6 players in consideration and Grubbe is not even being mentioned. We are deep but no way we are that deep. Everyone needs to wake up, this kid is one of our top 10 prospects hands down. 5/6 years down the road this kid will have a letter and be a fan favorite- Adam Graves lite?

 

[Savant]

In the prospect rankings we are on #9 now with 6 players in consideration and Grubbe is not even being mentioned. We are deep but no way we are that deep. Everyone needs to wake up, this kid is one of our top 10 prospects hands down. 5/6 years down the road this kid will have a letter and be a fan favorite- Adam Graves lite?

I don’t agree. Who is he a better prospect than that is already on the list? He hasn’t played a full game in two years.

Maybe in winter when some of the other guys fall off, but need to see how he comes back from a bad injury.

 

[cwede]

... Grubbe is not even being mentioned. We are deep but no way we are that deep. Everyone needs to wake up, this kid is one of our top 10 prospects hands down...

hard argument to make with such certainty
that Grubbe is ahead of ALL the guys in that next tiers,
there are decent arguments for many, aside from Grubbe -
Berard, Gauthier, Reunanen, Garand, Cuylle, Paju, Richards, Gettinger, Skinner, Korczak, and more (some guys drafted sooner are not even listed here...)

not a knock on Grubbe, he seems a very solid pick,

of course, I (we) hope you're right about the ceiling he will achieve

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

In the prospect rankings we are on #9 now with 6 players in consideration and Grubbe is not even being mentioned. We are deep but no way we are that deep. Everyone needs to wake up, this kid is one of our top 10 prospects hands down. 5/6 years down the road this kid will have a letter and be a fan favorite- Adam Graves lite?

Grubbe would be a top-10 prospect in most prospect pools, just not ours. Not his fault, it's just a result of this prospect pool being so deep

 

[Clark Kellogg]

Jayden Grubbe Interview.

 

[Fitzy]

In the prospect rankings we are on #9 now with 6 players in consideration and Grubbe is not even being mentioned. We are deep but no way we are that deep. Everyone needs to wake up, this kid is one of our top 10 prospects hands down. 5/6 years down the road this kid will have a letter and be a fan favorite- Adam Graves lite?

This is a pretty bold claim, why do you rate the kid so high?

 

[Edge]

I don’t agree. Who is he a better prospect than that is already on the list? He hasn’t played a full game in two years.

Maybe in winter when some of the other guys fall off, but need to see how he comes back from a bad injury.

I'd like to see how he comes back from the injury, but I'd also like to see how the skills develop.

Character is great, size is great, etc. etc. But I do need to see more skill from him. Not 40 goals and 90 points, but a bit more than a half-dozen goals over a season. Typically even the bottom line guys in the NHL produce at the lower levels, with rare exception they're usually not already fourth line character/support guys on their junior teams.

So I definitely hope to see some progress there.

I think the earlier hopes of him becoming a Joel Otto type are probably not going to happen, but there's still a chance for a nice fourth line player there.

 

[darko]

Grubbe would be a top-10 prospect in most prospect pools, just not ours. Not his fault, it's just a result of this prospect pool being so deep

This.

He'll be top-10 next time we do these after Krava, KAM and Laf graduate.

 

[NYR425]

This is a pretty bold claim, why do you rate the kid so high?

Brent Sutter doesn't just say things like he said for the sake of it, and he glowingly raves about Grubbe. It is very similar to the way Neil Smith talked about a young Adam Graves after he signed him. Then you read about Grubbe as a player, his character, leadership and work ethic. The way he competes for 200 ft, is good on draws, can skate, play the body and has good hands in tight.

 

[cwede]

... very similar to the way Neil Smith talked about a young Adam Graves after he signed him. Then you read about Grubbe as a player, his character, leadership and work ethic. The way he competes for 200 ft, is good on draws, can skate, play the body and has good hands in tight.

Troy Mallette as compensation for Adam Graves - one of Neil's best ...

 

[Edge]

Brent Sutter doesn't just say things like he said for the sake of it, and he glowingly raves about Grubbe. It is very similar to the way Neil Smith talked about a young Adam Graves after he signed him. Then you read about Grubbe as a player, his character, leadership and work ethic. The way he competes for 200 ft, is good on draws, can skate, play the body and has good hands in tight.

Draft position aside, I like Grubbe well enough.

But even with an Adam Graves type, you had some production there at the lower levels. We gotta get there first at a junior level before we start talking about climbing and anything as a pro.

Grubbe is definitely one step at a time at this point.

 

[NYR425]

I'd like to see how he comes back from the injury, but I'd also like to see how the skills develop.

Character is great, size is great, etc. etc. But I do need to see more skill from him. Not 40 goals and 90 points, but a bit more than a half-dozen goals over a season. Typically even the bottom line guys in the NHL produce at the lower levels, with rare exception they're usually not already fourth line character/support guys on their junior teams.

So I definitely hope to see some progress there.

I think the earlier hopes of him becoming a Joel Otto type are probably not going to happen, but there's still a chance for a nice fourth line player there.

Edge, I have a lot of respect for you and your posts but in this case your taken Jayden's first junior season/ 16 year old season which was cut short by COVID where he was playing on a awful team. Here are the top scorers- Grubbe is the youngest player of them. His numbers would have been much higher this past season with increased ice time both 5 on 5 and PP.

20	Arshdeep Bains	L	63	18	33	51	18	-13
19	Josh Tarzwell	C	63	32	9	41	29	-8
14	Ben King 1	C	46	16	22	38	28	-8
10	Cameron Hausinger	R	61	13	25	38	84	-33
12	Chris Douglas	C	63	12	23	35	67	-19
9	Jayden Grubbe	C	57	6	23	29	46	-6

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Edge]

Edge, I have a lot of respect for you and your posts but in this case your taken Jayden's first junior season/ 16 year old season which was cut short by COVID where he was playing on a awful team. Here are the top scorers- Grubbe is the youngest player of them. His numbers would have been much higher this past season with increased ice time both 5 on 5 and PP.

20	Arshdeep Bains	L	63	18	33	51	18	-13
19	Josh Tarzwell	C	63	32	9	41	29	-8
14	Ben King 1	C	46	16	22	38	28	-8
10	Cameron Hausinger	R	61	13	25	38	84	-33
12	Chris Douglas	C	63	12	23	35	67	-19
9	Jayden Grubbe	C	57	6	23	29	46	-6

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I do that get that and I'm not shitting on the kid. But we're still looking at 7 goals spread over 62 WHL games. Prior to that, we're talking about 4 goals as midget.

There's some work to do there, even to get into consideration for a potential fourth line role down the line. The road traveled for guys with that kind of start, injuries and pandemic aside, is not typically a popular one.

I think he's got a ton of character and that gives him a puncher's chance. But at the end of the day, I still think we're talking about a fourth liner here. Easy kid to love, but also maybe a little too easy in way.

 

[NYR425]

I do that get that and I'm not shitting on the kid. But we're still looking at 7 goals spread over 62 WHL games. Prior to that, we're talking about 4 goals as midget.

There's some work to do there, even to get into consideration for a potential fourth line role down the line. The road traveled for guys with that kind of start, injuries and pandemic aside, is not typically a popular one.

I think he's got a ton of character and that gives him a puncher's chance. But at the end of the day, I still think we're talking about a fourth liner here. Easy kid to love, but also maybe a little too easy in way.

I think with Knowalchuk being his coach, the Rangers were given a lot of information. What does Knowalchuk and the Rangers see then, that tells them otherwise? Because I can not imagine they would pick a guy 65th overall they have pegged for the 4th line center role.

 

[Edge]

I think with Knowalchuk being his coach, the Rangers were given a lot of information. What does Knowalchuk and the Rangers see then, that tells them otherwise? Because I can not imagine they would pick a guy 65th overall they have pegged for the 4th line center role.

Well, I mean he wouldn't be the first guy. A lot these conversations (and the pushback I got) isn't unique. I could pretty much copy and paste discussions about Boo Nieves and Lee Farladeau and they'd feel eerily similar. Frankly, both those guys were taken even higher.

The reality is that taking a guy who projects as a fourth line center in the third really isn't a stretch at all. He's probably half-round to a round higher than I would've taken him, but he's not completely out of line.

 

[NYR425]

What kind of numbers would you want to see from him this season to feel confident that he can be a third line center then? 25 Goals and 40 assists?

 

[Edge]

What kind of numbers would you want to see from him this season to feel confident that he can be a third line center then? 25 Goals and 40 assists?

I dunno. I’m hesitant to put hardline statistical expectations on him, so much as I’d like to see what he’s doing relative to his competition, assignments and the team.

Overall, I’m hoping to see him control the puck with more confidence and assertion when he has it, consistently get himself into the play a bit more often and really bridge the gaps in his game a little more - a bit quicker on the plays, a bit more decisive, better on the reads and anticipation and how he adjusts to the overall speed of the game.

He has a rep as a locker room leader. I want to see a bit of that translate on the ice.

 

[pblawr]

I'll back up @Edge here.

From my viewing of Grubbe, he has a long way to go skillwise to be a valuable NHL player. He hands off the puck in transition bc he's weak carrying it at the junior level. He is clumsy and loses his balance on edges. I've seen him overskate loose pucks with no pressure on him. He doesn't really stand out moving the puck or make a lot of plays. In general, he's had to rely on his teammates to drive possession / play. He hits everything that moves, but a lot of times it's after the puck is already gone and it doesn't prevent the other team from getting a scoring chance.

He's got some assets - he is a very very physical player and he flashes good hands and a good shot, but my opinion from watching him is that he is materially behind some of our other prospects in terms of skill and ability to influence possession and scoring chances.

The stuff Sutter said about him is great and definitely matters. With his work ethic, it is a good bet he'll improve over time, but it feels to me like people are underestimating how much progress he has to make. Coaches loved Tanner Glass (who was a PPG player in the NCAA) and he still wasn't able to become a really impactful NHL player. I would be thrilled if he turned into an Adam Graves type player, but my opinion from watching him is that his skillset right now is more in line with a 4th line player who doesn't drive play and it will take some real improvements for him to become more than that.

 

[brakeyawself]

I'll back up @Edge here.

From my viewing of Grubbe, he has a long way to go skillwise to be a valuable NHL player. He hands off the puck in transition bc he's weak carrying it at the junior level. He is clumsy and loses his balance on edges. I've seen him overskate loose pucks with no pressure on him. He doesn't really stand out moving the puck or make a lot of plays. In general, he's had to rely on his teammates to drive possession / play. He hits everything that moves, but a lot of times it's after the puck is already gone and it doesn't prevent the other team from getting a scoring chance.

He's got some assets - he is a very very physical player and he flashes good hands and a good shot, but my opinion from watching him is that he is materially behind some of our other prospects in terms of skill and ability to influence possession and scoring chances.

The stuff Sutter said about him is great and definitely matters. With his work ethic, it is a good bet he'll improve over time, but it feels to me like people are underestimating how much progress he has to make. Coaches loved Tanner Glass (who was a PPG player in the NCAA) and he still wasn't able to become a really impactful NHL player. I would be thrilled if he turned into an Adam Graves type player, but my opinion from watching him is that his skillset right now is more in line with a 4th line player who doesn't drive play and it will take some real improvements for him to become more than that.

As others have suggested, we've seen guys like this be hyped up and fail more often than succeed. Not going to discount the possibility of his success, but given the type of player he seems to be and the long stretch without playing, a lot of things still have to go right for him to succeed.

And definitely need to take a wait and see stance on how he returns to playing. I would say his chances are still somewhere in the low 20's to low 30's % at best as far as becoming a full time and long time NHL player. And if he eventually replaces like Rooney or whomever on the 4th line, that's still a win. But compared to some of the talent that was still on the board, it's not necessarily the highest risk/reward. Which, is fine depending on how you look at it. We do need players like him.

But honestly, I am more excited about Korczac, Lamb and Vaisanen. Korczac and Lamb who I think can be higher risk/reward guys, with substantially higher ceiling, but lower floors. And Vaisanen to me is the perfect type of gritty, physical addition you can make in the latter rounds of the draft. Which is why I am always hesitant reaching for those traits, or even leadership. Of course, we could just as easily never see Vaisanen in North America at all so who knows? But I think he's set to play in Liiga this upcoming season which is a very good sign for a youngster.

Korczac and Lamb though, will be keeping an eye on. Especially Lamb playing for Minnesota. Could be another college success story.

 

[Edge]

I’m rooting for him, no doubt. I just want to at least mention that we could be looking at more of Fogarty type pick if the overall skill set doesn’t start to match the physical tools and intangibles.

There’s material to work with. But I’d probably start with modest expectations right now.

 

[gravey9]

I’m rooting for him, no doubt. I just want to at least mention that we could be looking at more of Fogarty type pick if the overall skill set doesn’t start to match the physical tools and intangibles.

There’s material to work with. But I’d probably start with modest expectations right now.

My viewing of him is very limited. But I do agree with your assessment. A guy like this needs to have at least one standout hockey skill for him to even sniff the pro game. He needs something that allows him to be impactful on the ice. When you watch the footage of Grubbe nothing really pops. His stickhandling is very basic and I don't know if it'll translate. He seems to be more of an average skater in Juniors. I don't know if he's got much of a shot or not. Nothing jumped out at me re: his hockey IQ. He's got to a lot to work on. And he needs at least 1 or 2 of these skills to mature rapidly if he's going to come close to the NHL. His kind of game requires speed or the kind of high end hockey IQ that would allow him to be effective at the highest level. If he's not going to be a puck carrier, he needs to make sure he has the wheels or intelligence to get to places on the ice to make a difference. I don't think he's anywhere near Adam Graves at this moment. But I understand the character, hard nosed, not a great skater comp. But Graves had a real offensive prowess to his game that you could see even when he was a rookie with Edmonton on that kid line. All that said, I'll be rooting hard for him to figure it out as we need more of the kind of player the team projects him to become. I think Forgarty is an interesting comp. As is a more hardnosed Gettinger. Really, Cuylle is in a very similar mold, but I see more offensive flair from Cuylle.