6 of the bottom 10 teams in CF% 5on5 have a record above .500.
- Thread starter Bjornar Moxnes
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Butch 19
Go cart Mozart
TheDoldrums
Registered User
I notice that those aren't score adjusted. Nashville for example is over 50% score adjusted, they just spend a lot of team leading so they look worse without adjustments due to score effects. And Buffalo is in the bottom 10 score adjusted, they're just trailing so often that the raw numbers will make them look better.
As for "what gives," it's usually goaltending and special teams. And some luck, considering it's been ~30 games.
As for "what gives," it's usually goaltending and special teams. And some luck, considering it's been ~30 games.
The Macho King
Back* to Back** World Champion
- Jun 22, 2011
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Doesn't like 80% of the league have records over .500?
Raccoon Jesus
Todd McLellan is an inside agent
Similar phenomenon for LA, I notice a lot of our opponents calling us lucky and terrible in possession lately. 49.82% for 15th all around, but 51.89 and 8th in close. Just spend a disproporionate amount of time in blowout situations which skews that number in general.
KoozNetsOff 92
Hala Madrid
- Apr 6, 2016
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Can't speak for the other teams, but for the caps Holtby has bailed us out so many times. Without him we'd be nowhere close to the playoffs. With him bailing us out we always have a chance and with guys like OV, Kuzy, Backstrom, Oshie we don't need a lot of chances. Obviously not the way you want to keep going but it is what it is.
Freudian
Clearly deranged
- Jul 3, 2003
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How is it surprising? Only 7 of 31 teams in the league have a record below .500.
By default three teams in the bottom 10 in corsi will have a record at .500 or higher.
By default three teams in the bottom 10 in corsi will have a record at .500 or higher.
Choralone
Registered User
Yeah, .500 doesn't mark the median. People should be using quantiles and deciles to describe the bottom vs top x% of teams.
Isn't Edmonton like 1st or 2nd with this stat?
I put nothing into advanced stats this year with Edmonton in top 5 in all categories.
I put nothing into advanced stats this year with Edmonton in top 5 in all categories.
DL44
Status quo
You hear a lot in sports about playing the percentages... well... I think that's seeping into the NHL...
No better example I can come up with than the game I attended last night: Carolina-Vancouver...
Carolina ramped up their shot totals nicely... with the majority coming from the outside... very little net front presence... next to no disrupting Markstrom in the crease... next to no goal mouth raucous..
Looking at their numbers, they are leading the league in corsi... yet their goal scoring is below average. We saw exactly why - if last night's game was typical of their style of play.
They are a super quick team that get to a lot of pucks... also started with the puck a lot by winning a tonne of draws vs us... but there was little purpose to their attack beyond 'shoot!'. The first period the Canucks were outshoot 12-3 and other than the annoyance with the Canucks inability to handle the puck... there weren't too many points in that period where there were high quality sphincter inducing chances against.
Anyways... the point.... it's either over coaching on the percentages... or players trying to pad their corsi for upcoming arbitration and contracts (cynical.. I know)..
I think corsi has less meaning today then when it was first analyzed in retrospect because of coach/player awareness.
No better example I can come up with than the game I attended last night: Carolina-Vancouver...
Carolina ramped up their shot totals nicely... with the majority coming from the outside... very little net front presence... next to no disrupting Markstrom in the crease... next to no goal mouth raucous..
Looking at their numbers, they are leading the league in corsi... yet their goal scoring is below average. We saw exactly why - if last night's game was typical of their style of play.
They are a super quick team that get to a lot of pucks... also started with the puck a lot by winning a tonne of draws vs us... but there was little purpose to their attack beyond 'shoot!'. The first period the Canucks were outshoot 12-3 and other than the annoyance with the Canucks inability to handle the puck... there weren't too many points in that period where there were high quality sphincter inducing chances against.
Anyways... the point.... it's either over coaching on the percentages... or players trying to pad their corsi for upcoming arbitration and contracts (cynical.. I know)..
I think corsi has less meaning today then when it was first analyzed in retrospect because of coach/player awareness.
snipes
How cold? I’m ice cold.
- Dec 28, 2015
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Corsi Cup baby!
Yeah this has soured me on advanced stats more than usual. We'll see at the end of the year where it's all at.
Because like with any stat, by themselves they're basically useless.
Corsi% by itself is useless. It doesn't track the quality of shots for or against, doesn't track the score of the game, doesn't track the difference in time on the PP versus on the PK, etc. etc.
By itself it's as useless as +/-
Corsi% by itself is useless. It doesn't track the quality of shots for or against, doesn't track the score of the game, doesn't track the difference in time on the PP versus on the PK, etc. etc.
By itself it's as useless as +/-
Machinehead
GoAwayTrouba
I still think of CF% primarily as a defensive measure and some of these teams can score.
The Rangers fart and 4 goals go up on the board. That's going to win you a share of games.
Look how good Carolina and LA have been at CF% despite producing underwhelming records. It's because they haven't been able to score. And in Carolnia's case they might have the best D corps in the league but their forward corps is ass.
The Rangers fart and 4 goals go up on the board. That's going to win you a share of games.
Look how good Carolina and LA have been at CF% despite producing underwhelming records. It's because they haven't been able to score. And in Carolnia's case they might have the best D corps in the league but their forward corps is ass.
aufheben
#Norris4Fox
The Rangers lead the league in high-danger chances/60 this year, and have been top-5 in that category for 5 straight years (including this season). They're an elite finishing team that has had great goal-tending.
That said, I consider it no coincidence that the year the made it to the SCF was also the last time that they had an above-average CF%.
Jason MacIsaac
Registered User
Teams are playing to high danger scoring chances now and ignoring CF%. NJ is a 53% team in HDSC% putting them 8th in the league. Here are the top 10 HDSC% in the NHL today.
Dallas - 56.99
Montreal - 55.69
Tampa Bay - 54.04
Columbus - 53.97
Calgary - 53.76
Toronto - 53.72
Carolina - 53.42
New Jersey - 53.00
St Louis - 52.49
Edmonton - 51.91
Edmonton, Montreal, Calgary and Carolina are all bottom 5 in HDSC SH% however which seems to be a little unlucky.
Dallas - 56.99
Montreal - 55.69
Tampa Bay - 54.04
Columbus - 53.97
Calgary - 53.76
Toronto - 53.72
Carolina - 53.42
New Jersey - 53.00
St Louis - 52.49
Edmonton - 51.91
Edmonton, Montreal, Calgary and Carolina are all bottom 5 in HDSC SH% however which seems to be a little unlucky.
Leafblooded
Registered User
but it is easy to see why the Oilers are in the position they are in despite good 5 on 5 possession metrics... They have a terrible PP and a terrible PK and their goaltending has been sub par. Doesn't really matter if you are winning 5 on 5 if you are giving up some soft goals and losing the special teams battle most nights.
Machinehead
GoAwayTrouba
I don't know about Edmonton and Calgary, maybe they're unlucky, but Montreal and Carolina have been doing this for years. They just suck at shooting.
Blender
Registered User
- Dec 2, 2009
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Pretty much confirms what I have seen from Devils games visually. They are happy to concede shots from the outside at a high volume, but play to try and protect the middle. At the other end, they tend to hold onto the puck to try and get a good scoring chance instead of throwing the puck at the net.
AfroThunder396
[citation needed]
NJ is playing for quality of opportunity, not quantity. With Schneider rounding back into form we "don't mind" giving up shots as much as last year, Cory is seeing and saving a lot.
We were riding a PDO wave at the beginning of the season. A lot of our bottom-6 was getting great puck luck. That seems to have regressed a bit. NJ has done most of their scoring in transition or from within 5 feet of the cage, very high percentage opportunities.
We were riding a PDO wave at the beginning of the season. A lot of our bottom-6 was getting great puck luck. That seems to have regressed a bit. NJ has done most of their scoring in transition or from within 5 feet of the cage, very high percentage opportunities.
I actually blame our bad possession numbers on the coach's system more than the player quality. Also, ever since Zajac came back, the possession numbers have been better, mainly defensively.
DL44
Status quo
Like the feeling a goalie gets facing Patrick Kane in a shootout.
Like the feeling a shinpad gets when Edler winds up for a shot.
Like the feeling a hot dog gets when it see Kessel walk up to the table.
Like the feeling you get when... you get the point.
The third column is a loss column so I count 4 above .500 teams.
The Penguins got out-Corsi'd much of last playoffs and won the Stanley Cup. I thought that might have kind of busted Corsi as not being a one stop analytical measure.
The Penguins got out-Corsi'd much of last playoffs and won the Stanley Cup. I thought that might have kind of busted Corsi as not being a one stop analytical measure.
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