Speculation: 6 In 5 Thread 2017/18 (& Playoff Prediction)

[Aavco Cup]

Everyone should be familiar with the concept. Get 6 points or more every 5 games and a playoff spot is almost guaranteed.

We are currently right at the line. 12 points in 10 games. If someone wants to create a nice table to keep track that would be appreciated. And YYZ if your automatic site still works it could be linked here.

Other playoff prediction methods are also welcome like sportsclub stats or the athletic prediction and fancier methods like Mcurdy

Click to read more...

 

[Neuf]

I got my spreadsheet going, i can post a link later

Link

 

[Aavco Cup]

The Athletic currently projects us to finish with 95+ points

 

[Gm0ney]

Dom's model was +/- 9.9 points last year, so the Jets point range is 105.2 to 85.4. If we continue to get great goaltending and can tighten up the PK we'll be at the higher end of the range.

 

[Neuf]

14 points
8 in last 5 games
Averaging 6.4 per 5 games
Pacing for 104

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

6 in 5 thread = Best thread.

 

[StiffSquid]

We need to aim higher. This is unacceptable. 7 in 5 is the new goal , very much possible. 115 points , no less

 

[YWGinYYZ]

We need to aim higher. This is unacceptable. 7 in 5 is the new goal , very much possible. 115 points , no less

Why should we care about the Jets obtaining only 6pts every 5 games? Playoffs.

6pts in 5 will result in a 98 points, or an almost guaranteed playoff spot, as no team has ever (as far as I know) NOT made the playoffs in the modern era if they've ended the season with this point total. In essence, this thread allows us to concentrate on JUST the Jets, and ignore what's going on around the league. Get 1.2pts per game, and it doesn't matter what teams around us are doing.

This concept was originated by Mike Keenan when he was the Rangers head coach for the '94 season. The main idea behind this - not every game is a must win. Consistency is key, and a small slide / losing streak is not necessarily the end of the world.

So yes: getting 7 in 5 would be fantastic, but it's not necessary. In the past, this thread has been about staying calm and realistic about the position of the team, and the likelihood of them reaching the PO's, not about simply cheering for wins.

 

[Steenager]

We need to aim higher. This is unacceptable. 7 in 5 is the new goal , very much possible. 115 points , no less

I, for one, will not be satisfied unless we finish the year with 130 points. 8 in 5!

 

[StiffSquid]

Sorry was just trying to be a smart ass.

 

[King Woodballs]

I, for one, will not be satisfied unless we finish the year with 130 points. 8 in 5!

Post of the year!
Let's win every game for ever while we're at it!

 

[Maukkis]

Why should we care about the Jets obtaining only 6pts every 5 games? Playoffs.

6pts in 5 will result in a 98 points, or an almost guaranteed playoff spot, as no team has ever (as far as I know) NOT made the playoffs in the modern era if they've ended the season with this point total. In essence, this thread allows us to concentrate on JUST the Jets, and ignore what's going on around the league. Get 1.2pts per game, and it doesn't matter what teams around us are doing.

This concept was originated by Mike Keenan when he was the Rangers head coach for the '94 season. The main idea behind this - not every game is a must win. Consistency is key, and a small slide / losing streak is not necessarily the end of the world.

So yes: getting 7 in 5 would be fantastic, but it's not necessary. In the past, this thread has been about staying calm and realistic about the position of the team, and the likelihood of them reaching the PO's, not about simply cheering for wins.

True. Under the current division system, the highest amount of points for a non-playoff team was Boston's 96 in 14-15. What made that year so special was four teams finishing with under 70 points, and Carolina only beating that by one point. It would probably take half of the playoff teams finishing with under 70 points to render the 6 in 5 rule useless, and with the parity of today, I can't see that happening.

 

[LucianoBorsato]

Aavco, do you have the latest playoff odds from the Athletic (because some of us are too cheap to pay for the site lol)

 

[Gm0ney]

As of Nov 1 - Jets projected to hit 96.5 points and a 74% chance of making the playoffs:

Can everyone see that?

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Can everyone see that?

Yep - are you not seeing the image of the table on your side?

 

[Spock]

As of Nov 1 - Jets projected to hit 96.5 points and a 74% chance of making the playoffs:
Can everyone see that?

Yep - are you not seeing the image of the table on your side?

 

[Gm0ney]

Yep - are you not seeing the image of the table on your side?

I see it, but I subscribe to the Athletic so I was wondering if non-subscribers could see the image.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

I see it, but I subscribe to the Athletic so I was wondering if non-subscribers could see the image.

I don't subscribe to the Athletic, and I can see it. Vulcans, on the other hand...

 

[Neuf]

Last 5 games: 8 pts
Avg pts / 5 gm: 6.7
Pacing: 109 pts
0.670

 

[Neuf]

Game 13

Last 5 Games	8 pts​
Avg 5 Games	6.5 pts​
CML PPG	1.31​
Point %	0.654​
Win %	0.538​
Total Points	17​
Pace / 82 Games	107​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Neuf]

Game 14

Last 5 Games	9 pts​
Avg 5 Games	6.8 pts​
CML PPG	1.36​
Point %	0.679​
Win %	0.571​
Total Points	19​
Pace / 82 Games	111​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[KingBogo]

Game 14

Last 5 Games	9 pts​
Avg 5 Games	6.8 pts​
CML PPG	1.36​
Point %	0.679​
Win %	0.571​
Total Points	19​
Pace / 82 Games	111​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Way to go go boys. Lets have a big weekend in LV and Arizona and the back home for Ducky's big night. Time to keep getting the wins.

 

[cbcwpg]

19 points in 14 GP... ( 8 - 3 - 3 )

If the Jets just managed to just play .500 over their last 68 games, we would end up with 87 points, which is exactly what we ended up with last season... and out of the playoffs.

Another month of win 2 lose 1 should go a long ways to a playoff spot.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

19 points in 14 GP... ( 8 - 3 - 3 )

If the Jets just managed to just play .500 over their last 68 games, we would end up with 87 points, which is exactly what we ended up with last season... and out of the playoffs.

Another month of win 2 lose 1 should go a long ways to a playoff spot.

This could have been written by Nobody Important - well, except for the last sentence. That is way too optimistic.

How about play .500 until there are only 7 games left, then go on a 7 game winning streak, like last year?

19 + 61 = 80 + 14 = 94 - probable 2nd WC spot.
OK, I'd rather just go 6 in 5 from here on. That is 1.2 P/Gm x 68 = 81.6 + 19 = 100.6 - probable 3rd place in the Central. Or better yet continue our current pace and get 111 points, 1st in Central.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Athletic now predicting 98+ points