GDT: #44 | Panthers vs Flyers | Monday, Jan 13, 2025 | 7:00 PM | NBCSP, 97.5 FM

[VladDrag]

Frost GA/60 this season 3.4. Last season GA/60 1.91

That's not a good indicator of individual defensive impact.

 

[BillDineen]

TBF 2nd half Frost is a totally different player and it is the second half

 

[Danko]

great game

 

[deadhead]

Zamula has no options left, and they're not pairing Andrae with Drysdale.
There's no rush, it's not going to hurt Andrae to be the lead dog on LHV and play in all situations.

Meanwhile, Zamula is playing very well since he got back into the lineup after Torts slapped him on the side of the head and said make quicker decisions:

18g xGF 60.17%, HDCF 56.56%, xGFrel +5.19, HDCFrel +6.74
reason to look at "rel" is forwards have been playing so well over that stretch that metrics for all D-men are inflated. The team is clearly better with him on the ice. He's4th in D-man minutes over that stretch so he's not that sheltered.

Hard to make a case he should be benched.

Not sure Zamula can get much bigger or much faster, top speed 20.18 (ave 21.47), (3) 20+ bursts (17.6) but above average mileage 8.84 mi/60 (8.53). He's slow, but smooth and active, agile for a guy his size and has learned to use his reach to break up plays. Smart with good anticipation. He's got a good wrist shot from the point and can get the puck on net.

Next year Bonk, Sotheran go pro, and you already have Andrae, McDonald, Grans in LHV.
So changes will be made.

 

[flyersnorth]

Zamula has no options left, and they're not pairing Andrae with Drysdale.
There's no rush, it's not going to hurt Andrae to be the lead dog on LHV and play in all situations.

Meanwhile, Zamula is playing very well since he got back into the lineup after Torts slapped him on the side of the head and said make quicker decisions:

18g xGF 60.17%, HDCF 56.56%, xGFrel +5.19, HDCFrel +6.74
reason to look at "rel" is forwards have been playing so well over that stretch that metrics for all D-men are inflated. The team is clearly better with him on the ice. He's4th in D-man minutes over that stretch so he's not that sheltered.

Hard to make a case he should be benched.

Not sure Zamula can get much bigger or much faster, top speed 20.18 (ave 21.47), (3) 20+ bursts (17.6) but above average mileage 8.84 mi/60 (8.53). He's slow, but smooth and active, agile for a guy his size and has learned to use his reach to break up plays. Smart with good anticipation. He's got a good wrist shot from the point and can get the puck on net.

Next year Bonk, Sotheran go pro, and you already have Andrae, McDonald, Grans in LHV.
So changes will be made.

What changes?

Sanheim, Risto, Seeler, Drysdale, and Zamula under contract for multiple years.

York is an RFA that will certainly be re-signed.

Andrae should already be on the team.

That's 7 defensemen for 6 spots.

The only possible trade I see is Risto, and that still leaves 6 NHL defensemen.

 

[deadhead]

What changes?

Sanheim, Risto, Seeler, Drysdale, and Zamula under contract for multiple years.

York is an RFA that will certainly be re-signed.

Andrae should already be on the team.

That's 7 defensemen for 6 spots.

The only possible trade I see is Risto, and that still leaves 6 NHL defensemen.

I think a Risto trade has become inevitable, same with Laughton if they think Jett will play next year, also if they decide Lycksell needs to be retained.

After that, players will decide their fate on the ice.
And they're sure to draft at least one D-man in the first two rounds this summer, and Gill is having a solid D+1 season.
Summer of 2026, Seeler's NTC expires, and by then Drysdale shouldn't need a caddy, one way or the other.

 

[MJL66]

That's not a good indicator of individual defensive impact.

I hear you on that but the higher GA rate to me corresponds with what I see on the ice.

I think a Risto trade has become inevitable, same with Laughton if they think Jett will play next year, also if they decide Lycksell needs to be retained.

After that, players will decide their fate on the ice.
And they're sure to draft at least one D-man in the first two rounds this summer, and Gill is having a solid D+1 season.
Summer of 2026, Seeler's NTC expires, and by then Drysdale shouldn't need a caddy, one way or the other.

I don't recall but there was a recent article put on the Flyers deadline possibilities that said that a trade of Laughton is still very unlikely. The Flyers value him too much. We'll see.

 

[deadhead]

I think the problem on Frost on defense is that he's basically sound, but gets in trouble in his D-zone in traffic, he's just not strong with the puck, same size as Cates, but the difference is obvious.

So when he gets stripped, it's usually at the worst place at the worst time.

A general problem I see is the young players still panic at times under strong forechecking. They've been working on that, they want the D-men to skate with the puck for a step or to and look for an outlet pass instead of just throwing it up the boards or making blind passes. It's a balance that comes with experience, too slow and you get stripped (Zamula's problem), too fast and you don't identify a clean passing lane.

And the blind pass tendency is all over the ice, probably bad habits from junior hockey, TK is a big offender. Sometimes it works when you actually are aware where everyone is on the ice, but often it's blind optimism that a teammate will be there.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Zamula has no options left, and they're not pairing Andrae with Drysdale.
There's no rush, it's not going to hurt Andrae to be the lead dog on LHV and play in all situations.

Meanwhile, Zamula is playing very well since he got back into the lineup after Torts slapped him on the side of the head and said make quicker decisions:

18g xGF 60.17%, HDCF 56.56%, xGFrel +5.19, HDCFrel +6.74
reason to look at "rel" is forwards have been playing so well over that stretch that metrics for all D-men are inflated. The team is clearly better with him on the ice. He's4th in D-man minutes over that stretch so he's not that sheltered.

Hard to make a case he should be benched.

Not sure Zamula can get much bigger or much faster, top speed 20.18 (ave 21.47), (3) 20+ bursts (17.6) but above average mileage 8.84 mi/60 (8.53). He's slow, but smooth and active, agile for a guy his size and has learned to use his reach to break up plays. Smart with good anticipation. He's got a good wrist shot from the point and can get the puck on net.

Next year Bonk, Sotheran go pro, and you already have Andrae, McDonald, Grans in LHV.
So changes will be made.

So basically, as was pointed out at the time, signing Seeler was a mistake and he's blocking a young player.

Get rid of Seeler. Problem solved.

 

[ponder719]

I think a Risto trade has become inevitable, same with Laughton if they think Jett will play next year, also if they decide Lycksell needs to be retained.

I wish I had your relentless optimism that the Flyers will do in 2025 what they should have done in 2021, and undo what they should never have done in the first place.

I put the odds of the Flyers moving even one of those two men at 50%, and the odds of moving both at 5%, and I am hoping like hell to roll a nat 20.

 

[Curufinwe]

@Curufinwe

Ashlynn Sullivan reported that Poehling came up with the "Mike" nickname for Michkov after Mike Tyson because Michkov apparently has a thick neck.

I figure it's only a matter of time before he demands a trade at this rate.

Thanks!

Mike is a great nickname by hockey standards. I still get douche chills when I remember Hakstol taking about “Leiersy”.

 

[flyersnorth]

I think a Risto trade has become inevitable, same with Laughton if they think Jett will play next year, also if they decide Lycksell needs to be retained.

After that, players will decide their fate on the ice.
And they're sure to draft at least one D-man in the first two rounds this summer, and Gill is having a solid D+1 season.
Summer of 2026, Seeler's NTC expires, and by then Drysdale shouldn't need a caddy, one way or the other.

We'll see. I do think Risto is the most likely candidate to be traded. I don't see them trading Seeler, at least not until he's a pending UFA.

Laughton I don't believe for a second they will trade. Farabee or Frost more likely, I think.

This current leadership group tends to keep players it likes (Seeler, Laughton, Hathaway, etc) and trade away those it doesn't (Hayes, Provorov, DeAngelo).

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Frost's biggest strength from a quantitative perspective has always been his defense. With these archetypes, that's usually a good sign that your eyes are remembering glaring defensive mistakes and not processing more subtle things that add up significantly.

TLDR; We continue to confuse skills with effectiveness and probably always will.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

What changes?

Sanheim, Risto, Seeler, Drysdale, and Zamula under contract for multiple years.

York is an RFA that will certainly be re-signed.

Andrae should already be on the team.

That's 7 defensemen for 6 spots.

The only possible trade I see is Risto, and that still leaves 6 NHL defensemen.

Problem is not giving more game to Erik Johnson.

 

[gto64dr]

Zamula is too slow and not mean enough. Risto is playing on par with Sanheim, no way he should be traded, We have better/speedier defensemen in LHV than Zamula. So far Drysdale has not impressed.

 

[VladDrag]

I hear you on that but the higher GA rate to me corresponds with what I see on the ice.

I'm not trying to be purposefully divisive with this comment, but perhaps could your eyes be deceiving you?

Edit - What Jojo said.

2nd Edit -- Here's his attributed shot map against for this season. Relative to the rest of the league, Frost plays a style of hockey that, in general, prevents frequent chances against.

 

[FLYguy3911]

GA over bigger samples can be somewhat useful, but when you have league worst goaltending, it is almost meaningless.

 

[MJL66]

I'm not trying to be purposefully divisive with this comment, but perhaps could your eyes be deceiving you?

Edit - What Jojo said.

2nd Edit -- Here's his attributed shot map against for this season. Relative to the rest of the league, Frost plays a style of hockey that, in general, prevents frequent chances against.

View attachment 960696

Certainly they could. That's the value of analytics data.

Can you post the same chart for Tippett

 

[VladDrag]

Certainly they could. That's the value of analytics data.

Can you post the same chart for Tippett

 

[Beef Invictus]

Zamula is too slow and not mean enough. Risto is playing on par with Sanheim, no way he should be traded, We have better/speedier defensemen in LHV than Zamula. So far Drysdale has not impressed.

Risto is nowhere near Sanheim

 

[Beef Invictus]

I'm not trying to be purposefully divisive with this comment, but perhaps could your eyes be deceiving you?

Edit - What Jojo said.

2nd Edit -- Here's his attributed shot map against for this season. Relative to the rest of the league, Frost plays a style of hockey that, in general, prevents frequent chances against.

View attachment 960696

But he does it without smashing guys into the boards so it doesn't count

 

[deadhead]

I don't recall but there was a recent article put on the Flyers deadline possibilities that said that a trade of Laughton is still very unlikely. The Flyers value him too much. We'll see.

That was Friedman saying Briere asking for a 1st meant he really didn't want to move him.
Then he corrected himself after someone pointed out that Briere did the same thing with Walker last season.
The 1st is the starting point for negotiations, Flyers will sweeten the pot by taking on a bad contract or throwing in a 3rd rd pick or 2nd tier prospect in return

 

[Beef Invictus]

I've heard all this before.


Let's not forget they didn't want to trade Walker and only did because they couldn't sign him for their preferred price.

 

[deadhead]

Frost's biggest strength from a quantitative perspective has always been his defense. With these archetypes, that's usually a good sign that your eyes are remembering glaring defensive mistakes and not processing more subtle things that add up significantly.

TLDR; We continue to confuse skills with effectiveness and probably always will.

Frost plays solid basic defense, but he's has a weird split this year with Michkov, Tippett.
Overall:
Frost xGF 51.63%, HDCF 45.92%
Michkov xGF 52.77%, HDCF 44.98%
Tippett xGF 51.47%, HDCF 45.67%

last 23 games (11/25 when Cates line was put together):
Frost xGF 59.78%, HDCF 52.95%
Michkov xGF 61.27%, HDCF 52.40%
Tippett xGF 56.82%, HDCF 51.40%

To me, xGF% is more overall play, HDCF is great plays created v major screwups.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Ah yes the arbitrary and pointless date cutoffs that have nothing obvious to do with anything. What does "The Cates Line" have to do with Frost/Michkov/Tippett? Especially since it is the only consistent line?


BTW, "The Cates Line" appears on 11/23. And for a shift on 11/18. And he appears with Foerster or Brink routinely before that. It's weird to pretend this was some team-changing epiphany dropped upon us suddenly like manna from heaven.