40 Man Dead Puck Era Forward Tournament Semi-Final #1: Mats Sundin Versus Daniel Alfredsson

[DitchMarner]

Just vote for the better player, taking into account peak, prime, longevity, talent, accomplishments, awards etc.


Tournament Semi-Finals:

Alfredsson (4-0: defeated Naslund, Hejduk, Elias and Marleau in round one. 4-0: defeated Hossa, Robitaille, Palffy and Mogilny in round two. 4-0: defeated D. Sedin, LeClair, Fleury and Roenick in round three.)
Sundin (4-0: defeated H. Sedin, Roenick, Elias and Robitaille.)

Modano (4-0: defeated Robitaille, Fleury, Shanahan and Hossa.)
Kariya (4-0: defeated D. Sedin, Naslund, Shanahan and Hossa.)


After defeating 12 opponents who have combined for hundreds and hundreds of goals and thousands of points in the NHL, Daniel Alfredsson faces a familiar foe in his 13th contest.


Opponent

[yt]


Five day voting period. Let's go!


Eliminated players rankings:



1. Henrik Sedin (4-1: defeated Shanahan, Hossa, Elias and Turgeon; lost to Sundin.)

2. Brendan Shanahan (4-0: defeated Tkachuk, Recchi, Hossa and Mogilny in round one. 4-0: defeated Robitaille, Elias, Naslund and Fleury in round two. 2-3: defeated LeClair and Nieuwendyk; lost to Modano, Kariya and H. Sedin in round three.)

________________________________________

Single tier:

3. Luc Robitaille (4-0: defeated Hossa, Palffy, Recchi and Brind'Amour in round one. 3-2: defeated Mogilny, LeClair and Fleury; lost to Shanahan and Alfredsson; received two byes in round two. 1-3: defeated Turgeon; lost to Modano, Elias and Sundin in round three.)

3. Marian Hossa (3-2: defeated Recchi, Tkachuk and Mogilny, received a bye; lost to Robitaille and Shanahan in round one. 4-1: defeated Fleury, Brind'Amour, Kovalev and Damphousse; lost to Alfredsson in round two. 1-3: defeated Elias; lost to Kariya, D. Sedin and Modano in round three.)

Reason they are grouped together: Robitaille beat Hossa directly but lost to Elias while Hossa beat Elias. Otherwise, they fared equally well against common opponents.

_______________________________________________

5. Daniel Sedin (2-3: defeated Fleury and Naslund; lost to Kariya, Hossa and Alfredsson.

_______________________________________________

Single tier:

6. Theo Fleury (4-0: defeated Kovalev, Marleau, Roberts and LeClair in round one. 5-3: defeated Elias, Bondra, Naslund, Mogilny and Brind'Amour; lost to Hossa, Shanahan and Robitaille in round two. 1-3: defeated Nieuwendyk; lost to Modano, Alfredsson and D. Sedin in round three.)

6. Patrik Elias (4-1: defeated Hejduk, Naslund, Tkachuk and Recchi; lost to Alfredsson in round one. 4-2: defeated LeClair, Palffy, Damphousse and Bondra; lost to Fleury and Shanahan in round two. 1-3: defeated Robitaille; lost to Hossa, Sundin and H. Sedin in round three.)

Reason they are grouped together: Fleury beat Elias directly but lost to Robitaille whereas Elias defeated Robitaille. Otherwise, they fared equally well against common opponents.

_________________________________________________

Single tier:

8. Mark Recchi (1-4: defeated Mogilny; lost to Shanahan, Robitaille, Hossa and Elias.)

8. Jeremy Roenick (2-3: defeated Turgeon and Naslund; lost to Sundin, Alfredsson and Elias.)

__________________________________________________

10. Alex Mogilny (4-3: defeated Whitney, LeClair, Marleau and Tkachuk; lost to Recchi, Shanahan and Hossa in round one. 3-4: defeated Kovalev, Naslund and Bondra; lost to Robitaille, Alfredsson, Brind'Amour and Fleury in round two.)

Mogilny lost to Brind'Amour but is still ranked ahead of him because he defeated four opponents (Naslund, LeClair, Kovalev and Bondra) that Brind'Amour lost to and they otherwise fared equally well against common opponents.

__________________________________________

Single tier:

11. Keith Tkachuk (3-4: defeated Demitra, LeClair and Weight; lost to Shanahan, Hossa, Elias and Mogilny.)

11. Markus Naslund (4-2: defeated Bondra, Bertuzzi, Kovalev and Demitra; lost to Alfredsson and Elias in round one. 4-3: defeated Palffy, Weight, LeClair and Brind'Amour; lost to Mogilny, Shanahan and Fleury in round two. 1-3: defeated Nieuwendyk; lost to Kariya, D. Sedin and Roenick in round three.)

____________________________________________

13. Joe Nieuwenyk (2-3: defeated Turgeon and LeClair; lost to Fleury, Shanahan and Naslund.)

14. Pierre Turgeon (defeated LeClair; lost to Roenick, H. Sedin, Robitaille and Nieuwendyk.)

15. John LeClair (4-3: defeated Nolan, Amonte, Brind'Amour and Roberts; lost to Mogilny, Fleury and Tkachuk in round one. 4-3: defeated Weight, Damphousse, Kovalevand Bondra; lost to Elias, Robitaille and Naslund in round two. 0-4: lost to Shanahan, Alfredsson, Nieuwendyk and Turgeon in round three.)

_________________________________________

16. Ziggy Palffy (4-1: defeated Bondra, Nolan, Demitra and Damphousse; lost to Robitaille in round one. 2-4: defeated Kovalev and Weight; lost to Naslund, Alfredsson, Brind'Amour and Elias in round two.)

Palffy is ranked ahead of Brind'Amour even though he lost to him because he beat two opponents Brind'Amour lost to (Bondra and Kovalev) and they otherwise fared equally well against common opponents.

_________________________________________

Single tier:

17. Alex Kovalev (4-2: defeated Damphousse, Brind'Amour, Bondra and Hejduk; lost to Fleury and Naslund in round one. 1-4: defeated Weight; lost to Palffy, Mogilny, Hossa and LeClair in round two.)

17. Rod Brind'Amour (4-3: defeated Weight, Damphousse, Bertuzzi and Koivu; lost to Kovalev, Robitaille and LeClair in round one. 3-4: defeated Zhamnov, Palffy andMogilny; lost to Bondra, Hossa, Naslund and Fleury in round two.)

Reason they are grouped together: They fared equally well against the combination of each another and common opponents. Brind'Amour defeated Palffy. Palffy defeated Kovalev. Kovalev defeated Brind'Amour.

Kovalev beat Bondra and lost to Mogilny whereas Brind'Amour beat Mogilny and lost to Bondra.

_________________________________________

19. Peter Bondra: (4-3 defeated Nolan, Hejduk, Whitney and Demitra; lost to Palffy, Naslund and Kovalev in round one. 3-4: defeated Damphousse, Brind'Amour and Zhamnov; lost to Fleury, Elias, Mogilny and LeClair in round two.)

Bondra is ranked behind Brind'Amour even though he beat him because Brind'Amour defeated two opponents Bondra lost to (Palffy and Mogilny) and they otherwise fared equally well against common opponents.

___________________________________________

Single tier:

20. Vincent Damphousse (4-3: defeated Koivu, Weight, Yashin and Marleau; lost to Brind'Amour, Kovalev and Palffy in round one. 1-4: defeated Zhamnov; lost to Bondra, LeClair, Elias and Hossa in round two.)

20. Pavol Demitra (3-4: defeated Yashin, Zhamnov and Koivu; lost to Tkachuk, Palffy, Naslund and Bondra.)

__________________________________________

Single tier:

22. Doug Weight (4-3: defeated Koivu, Tanguay, Smyth and Yashin; lost to Brind'Amour, Damphousse and Tkachuk in round one. 1-4: defeated Zhamnov; lost to LeClair, Kovalev, Naslund and Palffy in round two.)

22. Patrick Marleau (3-4: defeated Tanguay, Bertuzzi and Roberts; lost to Fleury, Alfredsson, Mogilny and Damphousse.)

___________________________________________

24. Saku Koivu (3-4: defeated Yashin, Zhamnov and Roberts; lost to Weight, Damphousse, Demitra and Brind'Amour.)

25. Gary Roberts (3-4: defeated Smyth, Bertuzzi and Amonte; lost to Fleury, Marleau, Koivu and LeClair.)

_____________________________________________

Single tier:

26. Alexei Yashin (3-4: defeated Allison, Gagne and Zhamnov; lost to Demitra, Koivu, Damphousse and Weight.)

26. Todd Bertuzzi (1-4: defeated Whitney; lost to Roberts, Marleau, Naslund and Brind'Amour.)

______________________________________________

28. Alex Zhamnov (4-3: defeated Allison, Gagne, Tanguay and Whitney; lost to Demitra, Koivu and Yashin in round one. 0-4: lost to Brind'Amour, Weight, Damphousse and Bondra in round two.)

_______________________________________________

Single tier:

29. Ray Whitney (3-4: defeated Smyth, Nolan and Amonte; lost to Bertuzzi, Mogilny, Bondra and Zhamnov.)

29. Milan Hejduk (2-4: defeated Amonte and Tanguay; lost to Elias, Alfredsson, Bondra and Kovalev.)

__________________________________________________

Single tier:


31. Alex Tanguay (2-4: defeated Allison and Gagne; lost to Marleau, Weight, Hejduk and Zhamnov.)

31. Tony Amonte (1-4: defeated Gagne; lost to LeClair, Hejduk, Roberts and Whitney.)

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33. Simon Gagne (1-4: defeated Smyth; lost to Amonte, Zhamnov, Yashin and Tanguay.)

34. Ryan Smyth (1-4: defeated Allison; lost to Roberts, Gagne, Whitney and Weight.)

____________________________________________________

Single tier:

35. Owen Nolan (0-4: lost to LeClair, Palffy, Bondra and Whitney.)

35 Jason Allison (0-4: lost to Zhamnov, Yashin, Smyth and Tanguay.)

____________________________________________________


Next Tournament:

Joe Sakic Versus Jaromir Jagr

Steve Yzerman Versus Teemu Selanne

Eric Lindros Versus Pavel Bure

Sergei Fedorov Versus Peter Forsberg

Click to read more...

 

[DitchMarner]

I would cordially like to invite the following individuals to offer input in this thread:

@Hockey Outsider
@Regal
@Nick Hansen

 

[DitchMarner]

I'd like to begin my analysis with this...

1. In some of Sundin's seasons, these were the point totals of the three highest scoring forwards on his team:

1993:

Sundin: 114 points
Sakic: 105 points
Ricci: 78 points

He scored nine more points than the second highest scoring forward on his team and 36 more points than the third highest scoring forward on his team.

1997:

Sundin: 94 points
Gilmour: 60 points (in 61 games - was traded to NJ)
Clark: 49 points

He scored 34 more points than the next highest scoring forward on his team and 45 more points than the third highest scoring forward on his team.

2002:

Sundin: 80 points
Tucker: 59 points
Mogilny: 57 points

He scored 21 more points than the next scoring forward on his team and 23 more points than the third highest scoring forward on his team.

2004

Sundin: 75 points
Nieuwendyk: 50 points
Roberts/Nolan: 48 points

He scored 25 more points than the next highest scoring forward on his team and 27 more points than the third highest scoring forwards on his team.

2008:

Sundin: 78 points
Antropov: 56 points
Blake: 52 points

He scored 22 more points than the next highest scoring forward on his team and 26 more points than the third highest scoring forward on his team.


Here are the scoring outputs of the three highest scoring forwards on Alfredsson's teams in his highest scoring seasons (in terms of raw point totals):

2006:

Heatley: 103 points
Alfredsson: 103 points
Spezza: 90 points

Alfredsson scored the same number of points as the highest scoring forward on his team and 13 more points than the third highest scoring forward on his team.

2007:

Heatley: 105 points
Spezza: 87 points
Alfredsson: 87 points

Alfredsson scored 18 fewer points than the highest scoring forward on his team and as many points as the third highest scoring on his team.

2008:

Spezza: 92 points
Alfredsson: 89 points
Heatley: 82 points

Alfredsson scored three fewer points than the highest scoring forward on his team and seven more points than the third highest scoring forward on his team.

2004:

Hossa: 82 points
Alfredsson: 80 points
Havlat: 68 points

Alfredsson scored two fewer points than the highest scoring forward on his team and 12 more points than the third highest scoring forward on his team.

2003:

Hossa: 80 points
Alfredsson: 78 points
White: 60 points

Alfredsson scored two fewer points than the highest scoring forward on his team and 18 more points than the third highest scoring forward on his team.

 

[DitchMarner]

2. Alfredsson received greater Selke support, but Sundin was a centre who killed penalties frequently and is one of the NHL's leaders in short-handed points since 1933-1934 according to the following list on NHL.com:

NHL.com - Stats

 

[trentmccleary]

Alfredsson was better offensively and defensively at his peak, Sundin was more durable and had better longevity.

Top-10 Era-Adjusted Season Average:
Alfredsson = 73-33-51-84, 0.45 GPG, 1.15 PPG
M. Sundin = 77-37-49-86, 0.49 GPG, 1.12 PPG

All era-adjusted seasons (sorted by PPG):

Alfie	70	44	52	96	1.37	Sundin	76	38	54	92	1.21
Alfie	77	43	58	101	1.31	Sundin	82	42	55	97	1.18
Alfie	77	38	55	93	1.21	Sundin	82	36	59	95	1.16
Alfie	77	30	58	88	1.14	Sundin	74	35	49	84	1.14
Alfie	57	23	41	64	1.12	Sundin	82	47	44	91	1.11
Alfie	78	31	56	87	1.12	Sundin	70	31	45	76	1.09
Alfie	68	26	49	75	1.10	Sundin	73	35	44	79	1.08
Alfie	70	22	53	75	1.07	Sundin	75	42	39	81	1.08
Alfie	78	43	39	82	1.05	Sundin	81	36	51	87	1.07
Alfie	76	25	49	74	0.97	Sundin	76	32	48	80	1.05
Alfie	79	25	51	76	0.96	Sundin	82	38	47	85	1.04
Alfie	55	19	32	51	0.93	Sundin	75	28	49	77	1.03
Alfie	75	31	35	66	0.88	Sundin	81	40	41	81	1.00
Alfie	68	20	34	54	0.79	Sundin	82	31	49	80	0.98
Alfie	82	25	34	59	0.72	Sundin	82	29	48	77	0.94
Alfie	58	13	25	38	0.66	Sundin	82	29	38	67	0.82
Alfie	54	15	18	33	0.61	Sundin	41	9	19	28	0.68
Alfie	81	19	30	49	0.60	Sundin	82	21	32	53	0.65

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Top-20 Trophy voting

Sundin
Hart = 8, 12, 16, 18, 18
Selke = N/A
Byng = N/A
2nd AST x 2

Alfie
Hart = 5, 16, 16, 17
Selke = 4, 10, 11, 15, 20
Byng = 2, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 14, 19, 20
2nd AST x 1

 

[Craig Button]

Sundin

 

[Holymakinaw]

Sundin easily.

Lopsided poll results are next.

 

[DitchMarner]

Alfredsson was better offensively and defensively at his peak, Sundin was more durable and had better longevity.

Top-10 Era-Adjusted Season Average:
Alfredsson = 73-33-51-84, 0.45 GPG, 1.15 PPG
M. Sundin = 77-37-49-86, 0.49 GPG, 1.12 PPG

All era-adjusted seasons (sorted by PPG):

Alfie	70	44	52	96	1.37	Sundin	76	38	54	92	1.21
Alfie	77	43	58	101	1.31	Sundin	82	42	55	97	1.18
Alfie	77	38	55	93	1.21	Sundin	82	36	59	95	1.16
Alfie	77	30	58	88	1.14	Sundin	74	35	49	84	1.14
Alfie	57	23	41	64	1.12	Sundin	82	47	44	91	1.11
Alfie	78	31	56	87	1.12	Sundin	70	31	45	76	1.09
Alfie	68	26	49	75	1.10	Sundin	73	35	44	79	1.08
Alfie	70	22	53	75	1.07	Sundin	75	42	39	81	1.08
Alfie	78	43	39	82	1.05	Sundin	81	36	51	87	1.07
Alfie	76	25	49	74	0.97	Sundin	76	32	48	80	1.05
Alfie	79	25	51	76	0.96	Sundin	82	38	47	85	1.04
Alfie	55	19	32	51	0.93	Sundin	75	28	49	77	1.03
Alfie	75	31	35	66	0.88	Sundin	81	40	41	81	1.00
Alfie	68	20	34	54	0.79	Sundin	82	31	49	80	0.98
Alfie	82	25	34	59	0.72	Sundin	82	29	48	77	0.94
Alfie	58	13	25	38	0.66	Sundin	82	29	38	67	0.82
Alfie	54	15	18	33	0.61	Sundin	41	9	19	28	0.68
Alfie	81	19	30	49	0.60	Sundin	82	21	32	53	0.65

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Top-20 Trophy voting

Sundin
Hart = 8, 12, 16, 18, 18
Selke = N/A
Byng = N/A
2nd AST x 2

Alfie
Hart = 5, 16, 16, 17
Selke = 4, 10, 11, 15, 20
Byng = 2, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 14, 19, 20
2nd AST x 1

Thanks for the statistical information.

I don't agree that he was necessarily better offensively at his peak, though. I think there's a definite advantage for Alfredsson in terms of linemate support during his top scoring seasons compared to the linemates Sundin had to work with in Toronto after the Gilmour trade.

Sundin led his team in points 13 times. I'm not sure how many times Alfredsson led his team in scoring. Having Heatley and Spezza to work with is a definite advantage over playing with the likes of Renberg, Hoglund, Ponikarovsky and Tucker.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Sundin led his team in points 13 times. I'm not sure how many times Alfredsson led his team in scoring. Having Heatley and Spezza to work with a definite advantage over playing with the likes of Renberg, Hoglund, Ponikarovsky and Tucker.

Come on, Sundin had the privilege of playing with a 29-goal scorer in Jonas Hoglund

 

[trentmccleary]

2. Alfredsson received greater Selke support, but Sundin was a centre who killed penalties frequently and is one of the NHL's all-time leaders in short-handed points according to the following list on NHL.com:

NHL.com - Stats

Half of those points occurred in 4 seasons of 5 between 93-97 when scoring averaged over 3 GPG and he was playing on loaded offensive teams in Quebec and Toronto. He was faster and the game was more wide open.

Thanks for the statistical information.

I don't agree that he was necessarily better offensively at his peak, though. I think there's a definite advantage for Alfredsson in terms of linemate support during his top scoring seasons compared to the linemates Sundin had to work with in Toronto after the Gilmour trade.

Sundin led his team in points 13 times. I'm not sure how many times Alfredsson led his team in scoring. Having Heatley and Spezza to work with is a definite advantage over playing with the likes of Renberg, Hoglund, Ponikarovsky and Tucker.

So Sundin never really had to compete for ice time at his position against equally talented players? Because Alfredsson had to compete for years with Hossa, Havlat and Heatley. Sundin didn't have to adapt to different positions to make it work?
From 2003-2006, Alfredsson played the right point on the PP to keep Hossa at RW and get Havlat on LW. Those are still by far the best 3 rankings that Ottawa's ever had on the PP and Alfredsson would have been a pretty high scoring d-man by PP points alone.
From 2006-2009, he played on a line with another RW in Heatley... who abandoned his lane every shift to stand in the right face-off circle. Alfredsson had to change offensively to make that work and pick up a lot of Spezza responsibilities offensively and defensively.

Sundin played on some pretty loaded offensive teams between 92-97.

From 1996-2004, Toronto had better goaltending and higher scoring offensive d-men. Ottawa typically had 1 extra high scoring forward (Yashin or Hossa).
From 1996-2004,
Toronto had 19 other players post a 50+ point season, 14 of those were from players who played a different position than Sundin.
Ottawa had 25 other players post a 50+ point season, 15 of those were from players who played a different position than Alfredsson.

 

[DitchMarner]

Half of those points occurred in 4 seasons of 5 between 93-97 when scoring averaged over 3 GPG and he was playing on loaded offensive teams in Quebec and Toronto. He was faster and the game was more wide open.



So Sundin never really had to compete for ice time at his position against equally talented players? Because Alfredsson had to compete for years with Hossa, Havlat and Heatley. Sundin didn't have to adapt to different positions to make it work?
From 2003-2006, Alfredsson played the right point on the PP to keep Hossa at RW and get Havlat on LW. Those are still by far the best 3 rankings that Ottawa's ever had on the PP and Alfredsson would have been a pretty high scoring d-man by PP points alone.
From 2006-2009, he played on a line with another RW in Heatley... who abandoned his lane every shift to stand in the right face-off circle. Alfredsson had to change offensively to make that work and pick up a lot of Spezza responsibilities offensively and defensively.

Sundin played on some pretty loaded offensive teams between 92-97.

From 1996-2004, Toronto had better goaltending and higher scoring offensive d-men. Ottawa typically had 1 extra high scoring forward (Yashin or Hossa).
From 1996-2004,
Toronto had 19 other players post a 50+ point season, 14 of those were from players who played a different position than Sundin.
Ottawa had 25 other players post a 50+ point season, 15 of those were from players who played a different position than Alfredsson.

The Leafs were nothing special offensively in '95, '96 or '97 and were offensively-challenged in '98. He played on some teams that were offensively deep from 1998-2004.

The Maple Leafs ranked 17th in GF in 1995 and only Sundin scored 40+ points that season for them. Gilmour had an off-season.

1994-95 Toronto Maple Leafs Roster and Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

In '96 TOR was 14th in GF.

1995-96 Toronto Maple Leafs Roster and Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

In '97 TOR was trash all-around and 17th in GF.

1996-97 Toronto Maple Leafs Roster and Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

In '98 TOR was 23rd in GF.

1997-98 Toronto Maple Leafs Roster and Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com


In '99 the Leafs did lead the NHL in GF, but they took advantage of offensive depth plus Sundin to do so. The top line wasn't entirely stacked. Sundin scored 83 points, Thomas scored 70+ and then no one else on the team had at least 60 points.

From 1998-2004, TOR never had a season in which more than two players scored 60+ points.

I have nothing against Alfredsson, but what makes me suspicious of the claim that he was better offensively than Sundin at his peak (by any considerable difference) is that he had two players to play with who both were PPG+ players from 2005-2008 and that period happens to be the time in which he had three of his four (including his top two) best offensive seasons in terms of adjusted points per game, the other being 2003-2004.

 

[DitchMarner]

Three days to vote.

I'd like to invite input from @JackSlater and @Thenameless.

 

[DitchMarner]

Two days to go for voting.

 

[JackSlater]

I'm comfortable with Sundin here. Longevity and consistency edge, offensive edge considering who they played with, more valuable position. If Alfredsson has a defensive advantage it isn't near enough to put him ahead of Sundin.

 

[53or8]

Alfreddson

lead his team to a stanley cup final.

 

[DitchMarner]

Voting ends tomorrow.

 

[DitchMarner]

Sundin wins.