36% chance the Leafs lose to Tampa [2023 playoffs]

[HamiltonNHL]

Totally agree. After the game 5 loss and the miserable playoff history of this team, you can’t play to not lose and instead play to win. Playing Woll is no riskier then playing samsonov, samsonov has a worse Save % then campbell last year in playoffs….play the kid woll.

"Play not to lose" Keefe .... this is a possible scenario.

Sammy plays poorly and we lose game 6.

Keefe plays Woll - AS A REACTION for Game 7, in typical Keefe fashion.

He's a part of the problem.

Samsonov has to start tomorrow… let’s get this done.

Does Matthews need to shoot 50% and the Leafs score 4-6 to beat Sammy's .900 play ?

 

[ORRFForever]

So there's a 36% chance I lose my $100 bet?

 

[janesy12]

I've seen this before.
Sorry, but I have zero confidence in this group winning 1 of the next 2 games...I hope I'm wrong, but history shows unfortunately I'll be correct.

 

[centipede2233]

What’s even more concerning if your a leafs fan, is that Tampa has outplayed Toronto every game except g2. I feel coaching is a big part of that. Either way how this shakes out, I get what I want. If the leafs win, we go on the ride…if they lose, dubas and keefe will not be back, I win either way woohooo

 

[Dekes For Days]

First, your numbers are wrong. Naturalstattrick has the lightning at 53.8% corsi at 5v5 over the series, not 60%.
Second, I'm not sure why you keep talking about corsi when nobody has put much meaning in it for like a decade. Expected goals are pretty much 50/50.
Third, that's not how you calculate probability to win/lose...

 

[Despote]

edit: dl

 

[WillyC]

"Play not to lose" Keefe .... this is a possible scenario.

Sammy plays poorly and we lose game 6.

Keefe plays Woll - AS A REACTION for Game 7, in typical Keefe fashion.

He's a part of the problem.


Does Matthews need to shoot 50% and the Leafs score 4-6 to beat Sammy's .900 play ?

We can win without Matthews even scoring… this Leafs team can win with any line.

Vasi is beatable and we’re going to win game six… TB barely escaped another comeback in the last game.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

It's just based on Corsi For %.

Tampa has dictated 5v5 play ... 60% of the time.

To win two games that 60% x 60% = 36%

Your premise is flawed.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

64%? I’ll take it!

it was 78.4% before game 5

 

[AvroArrow]

Leafs win the series. I forgot to drop my $5 bet on Tampa yesterday. Dropped $10 on Tampa to win the series, the hockey gods will surely be angered by this and make sure the Leafs win. You're all welcome. And also sorry that I forgot to drop my bet yesterday.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Your premise is flawed.

feel free to add to it.
show your math.

 

[therealkoho]

in 6 like I've said from the start

 

[57 Years No Cup]

feel free to add to it.
show your math.

Your "math" is based on a fallacy.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Leafs have close to a 80% chance of winning the series. Do not listen to this charlatan. Right now you can bet about $18,000 on the Leafs series price at Pinnacle a large sportsbook. The fact that they're willing to take that much money on the Leafs -425/+345 series price is a lot more meaningful than this guys inventions.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Your "math" is based on a fallacy.

So is Dubas.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Leafs have close to a 80% chance of winning the series. Do not listen to this charlatan. Right now you can bet about $18,000 on the Leafs series price at Pinnacle a large sportsbook. The fact that they're willing to take that much money on the Leafs -425/+345 series price is a lot more meaningful than this guys inventions.

It shows there's a sucker born every minute.

So is Dubas.

No argument there.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Leafs have close to a 80% chance of winning the series.

I have them at 64%.

There is a difference, but not alot.

I'm not saying my prediction calculation is correct. It's based on Corsi.

I already said Leafs in 6 before the series started.

The idea we are still in it despite sub .900 goaltending is a MIRACLE.

I suggested Woll for 3 games is what I would have done.

 

[stats1]

if this team is going to get it done my money is on it happening tomorrow. For whatever reason, maybe it’s due to the hype at home or too many nerves but I find the Leafs have played some of their worst hockey at home in elimination games. Maybe tomorrow with some Leaf fans there for support they can go out there and play a bit more loose as the underdog. I find when this team is expected to do well the pressure really eats them up

Never seen so much over handling of the puck, or guys like Marner trying to dance the puck into the net instead of shooting it. Tavares handling the puck like a Grenade. Ugly entries, tons of icings, tons of turnovers in the neutral zone.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

The Leafs have been outplayed 4/5 games.

Another idea is they have a 20% chance of winning Game 6 and 20% chance of wining game 7.

Sammy vs Woll is 50%/50%

not alot of leafs in seven voters.

lol.

 

[keonsbitterness]

This should clear up how odds are actually determined:

 

[MK78]

This cannot go to Game 7. If it does, we all know how it ends. Then it's Fire Everybody.

Shanahan, Dubas, Keefe, trade Matthews before he goes away for nothing, don't sign any of the UFA's, rebuild from scratch with a new vision.

To have this much talent and just fail year after year, its gotta end.

 

[Maple Leaf]

If they lose game 6 they should forfeit

 

[shaner8989]

I’d roll with Woll. He’s been awesome. Sammy isn’t the guy.

We all know it’s Tampa in 7

 

[TorMapleJays]

how many people had the Leafs winning four straight?

Serious question.