36% chance the Leafs lose to Tampa [2023 playoffs]

[HamiltonNHL]

With broad strokes, Tampa has dictated 5 on 5 play as Natural Stat Trick has their 5v5 Corsi For % at 60%.

.6 x .6 = 0.36.

The Leafs have a 64% chance of winning 1 of the next 2 games. Tampa has a 36% chance of winning both games.

Shanny, Dubas and Keefe - all three will be gone if their low performing team gets outsted again. (or should be at least).

Here's last night's Corsi plot. [source]

After 2 periods, the Leafs had a Corsi For percentage of 37%. That's very bad. Why does Tampa dominate play in our own barn ? During the most important game of the year ? Vasi made some stops, and Sammy didn't ... sure. But Tampa dictated the play AGAIN.

Click to read more...

 

[Contenderorpretender]

90% chance the refs turn a blind eye to blatant penalties.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

90% chance the refs turn a blind eye to blatant penalties.

Refs have been fine for the last 2 games for sure. They were a non-factor last night.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Leafs need a goalie to steal a game off Vasi. Sammy isn't the guy for that.

There is no reason Woll can't play as well or better than Sammy.

I wanted Woll to have a chance in games 5,6,7. Sammy was sub .900 through 4 games. Leafs only won because Vasi wasn't stopping anything. Keefe played it safe and went with Sammy.

Keefe, the perennial change nothing, play to not lose, can't lead this team, he just plays to attempt to keep his job.

Woll needs 2 chances and I bet he steals one of them.

 

[Suntouchable13]

64%? I’ll take it!

 

[Metroid]

Already put down 20 bucks on Tampa before lasts night's game, cuz if the leafs gonna f*** around, I wanna atleast make some money off them.

Go leafs go!

 

[Rude Dog]

Pretty sure I looked up a stat that suggested they had a 91% percent chance after being up 3-1. Odds getting worse but still in our favour. But why does it feel like a near impossibility at this point? My gut says they don't get it done in TB, but they finally win a game 7. Not that I will be able to stomach watching it.

 

[Bellefour20]

Wishful thinking but maybe the hockey gods and management give Murray the surprise start to close it out because he has closed out multiple playoff rounds, has 2 cup rings, and has the better road record this season. He was brought in as veteran insurance to make sure they close out a at least one series. So call it in if he can play. Or give Sammy one more chance and give Murray game 7. I don't know. Just try to use the weapons you have because there is no tomorrow if they don't.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

management give Murray the surprise start to close it out

Riskiest idea ever.

because he has closed out multiple playoff rounds, has 2 cup rings, and has the better road record this season. He was brought in as veteran insurance to make sure they close out a at least one series. So call it in if he can play. Or give Sammy one more chance and give Murray game 7. I don't know. Just try to use the weapons you have because there is no tomorrow if they don't.

Time has moved on from Murray.

 

[Twine Tickler]

Refs have been fine for the last 2 games for sure. They were a non-factor last night.

Yup,

No one to blame but ourselves. At the end of the day we have been the worse team all series long. We should be looking at a 3-2 series lead with optimism. Even though we dropped our last game. Oddly enough, last night was probably our best effort in the last 3 games, and we didn't get the result. Not suggesting we deserved a result, but it really highlights how fortunate we were to come away with 2 in TB in games 3 & 4.

We have to be better in all aspects of the game. TB never made excuses when they were down 3-1, and we sure as hell shouldn't either. That is not what winners do. Lets start playing the part.

The officiating last night was completely fair. Missed calls on both sides of the game. I'm sure the missed highsticking on Knies at the end is probably the only one they'd like to have back, but I can totally live with that. It happens, thats hockey.

At the end of the day, all you want from the officials is to not have an impact on the game, and I thought that crew did a great job on that last night. They let the boys play, and they called what was needed to be called.

 

[banks]

Leafs in 6.

Ride Samsonov.

 

[Twine Tickler]

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Leafs need a goalie to steal a game off Vasi. Sammy isn't the guy for that.

There is no reason Woll can't play as well or better than Sammy.

I wanted Woll to have a chance in games 5,6,7. Sammy was sub .900 through 4 games. Leafs only won because Vasi wasn't stopping anything. Keefe played it safe and went with Sammy.

Keefe, the perennial change nothing, play to not lose, can't lead this team, he just plays to attempt to keep his job.

Woll needs 2 chances and I bet he steals one of them.

Sammy stole game 3 for us.

Little bit of a stinky 2nd goal, but You can see what his thought process was on that play. He's gotta have that, but at the end of the day we can't just let a guy like Eysemont burn wide on us. I hate to keep dragging Justin Holl's name through the mud, because I know he's getting it big time today, but him spinning to the inside at the blueline while simultaneously pushing his guy to the outside is what caused that gap for Eysemont to walk in unimpeded. The cross seem pass was what I think everyone in the building was expecting, and I am sure if we gave Eysemont 100 pucks in that same spot he's hitting that shot maybe 20 times. Unfortunate break that of course Sammy needs to have, but You can see that play develop at the blue line.

Needless to say, Sammy has not been an issue thus far. No sense driving a narrative that's inaccurate

 

[kevsh]

The Leafs have a 64% chance of winning 1 of the next 2 game

I'd love to know the actual math behind that, because I've got an 0-10 record in games they can clinch a series stat for the Leafs and an 11-7 record for the Bolts (going back to 2018) that says otherwise.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

I'd love to know the actual math behind that, because I've got an 0-10 record in games they can clinch a series stat for the Leafs and an 11-7 record for the Bolts (going back to 2018) that says otherwise.

It's just based on Corsi For %.

Tampa has dictated 5v5 play ... 60% of the time.

To win two games that 60% x 60% = 36%

 

[namttebih]

Wishful thinking but maybe the hockey gods and management give Murray the surprise start to close it out because he has closed out multiple playoff rounds, has 2 cup rings, and has the better road record this season. He was brought in as veteran insurance to make sure they close out a at least one series. So call it in if he can play. Or give Sammy one more chance and give Murray game 7. I don't know. Just try to use the weapons you have because there is no tomorrow if they don't.

Is he even skating yet?

 

[ACC1224]

Dumb thread.

 

[rocketman588]

We can win in 6 I think we've been guttier then usual

If we lose 6 we're fuuuuuucked though

 

[JT AM da real deal]

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Leafs need a goalie to steal a game off Vasi. Sammy isn't the guy for that.

There is no reason Woll can't play as well or better than Sammy.

I wanted Woll to have a chance in games 5,6,7. Sammy was sub .900 through 4 games. Leafs only won because Vasi wasn't stopping anything. Keefe played it safe and went with Sammy.

Keefe, the perennial change nothing, play to not lose, can't lead this team, he just plays to attempt to keep his job.

Woll needs 2 chances and I bet he steals one of them.

Woll is a BIG game tender .. he gets better da BIGGER da game .. it is possible he shuts door completely on Tampa and drops a SHOUTOUT in game 6

 

[Stolie the Goalie]

Does Keefe have the marbles to put Woll in for game 6 and what if they still lose. What will it do to Sammy's confidence if he's put back in for game 7

 

[ToneDog]

We can win in 6 I think we've been guttier then usual

If we lose 6 we're fuuuuuucked though

LOL. We are fuuuuuuuuucked if the team believes it.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Does Keefe have the marbles to put Woll in for game 6 and what if they still lose. What will it do to Sammy's confidence if he's put back in for game 7

Sammy said he's sucked.

Sammy let in some sketchy goals last night.

Sammy knows Vasi outplayed him.

Thus, Woll for 2 games shouldn't bother him.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Sammy said he's sucked.

Sammy let in some sketchy goals last night.

Sammy knows Vasi outplayed him.

Thus, Woll for 2 games shouldn't bother him.

Be fair to him he let in 1 house league level goal period .. kampf knocked him over on another which was outrageous and Gio/Holl were nowhere close to net for complete lack of net front coverage on rebound goal ..

 

[centipede2233]

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Leafs need a goalie to steal a game off Vasi. Sammy isn't the guy for that.

There is no reason Woll can't play as well or better than Sammy.

I wanted Woll to have a chance in games 5,6,7. Sammy was sub .900 through 4 games. Leafs only won because Vasi wasn't stopping anything. Keefe played it safe and went with Sammy.

Keefe, the perennial change nothing, play to not lose, can't lead this team, he just plays to attempt to keep his job.

Woll needs 2 chances and I bet he steals one of them.

Totally agree. After the game 5 loss and the miserable playoff history of this team, you can’t play to not lose and instead play to win. Playing Woll is no riskier then playing samsonov, samsonov has a worse Save % then campbell last year in playoffs….play the kid woll.

 

[WillyC]

Samsonov has to start tomorrow… let’s get this done.

 

[Steven1562]

We are in the exact same spot as last season. Up 3-2 going into Tampa. If they want to show how things have changed they need to win in 6. Let this go 7 and it's over.