30 years without a cup for Canadian teams: why?

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What are the reasons?

  • Poor drafting

  • Poor asset management

  • Poor salary cap management

  • High taxes

  • High public demands

  • Hard to attract UFA/NMC

  • Hard to retain RFA/UFA

  • Not enough full rebuilds

  • Other economic reasons

  • Some conspiracy

  • Bad luck


Results are only viewable after voting.

FrankSidebottom

Registered User
Mar 16, 2021
635
742
Last time it happened in 1993 when Montreal defeated Gretzky and the Kings. Hasek was a backup, many posters of the forum weren’t born yet and Kurt Cobain was recording his last album In Utero.

What are the chances of 30 years without a single cup for more than 20% of the league? Statistically it’s about 0.5%, roughly the same as winning 10 cups instead of zero.

What are the reasons, what is preventing Canadian teams from winning?
 
Looking at the reasons above it’s a bit of everything. But with that said, bad ownership who hire bad management is the root.
 
Poor management. It seemed until 2015 or so Canadian teams refused to rebuild and were in a state of perpetual mediocrity.

Vancouver should have won in 2011 but they blew it in the finals. Toronto and Edmonton should be making runs every year at this point but haven't been able to get over the hump.
 
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Shitty owners probably the biggest reason. Canadian teams just typically refuse to do a proper rebuild. And sometimes when they finally do, it's way later than they should have.

Took Toronto a decade of straight failure and mediocrity before the owners finally green lit a rebuild.

Calgary should have started rebuilding after gaudreau and Tkachuk left. Vancouver been a mess the past decade with no clear direction.
 
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Poor management. It seemed until 2015 or so Canadian teams refused to rebuild and were in a state of perpetual mediocrity.

Vancouver should have won in 2011 but they blew it in the finals. Toronto and Edmonton should be making runs every year at this point but haven't been able to get over the hump.
Luigi, I don’t think we should be saying “Vancouver should have won”.
2011 Boston Bruins do NOT deserve to be dethroned from their rightful cup. Even in a hypothetical sense.

The team who was going win, won.



Disclaimer : you’re a long time poster, I got nothing but good things to say about your posts, so don’t think I have it out to get you. I’m just tired of people saying stuff like that
 
Biggest reason is bad luck. Simple as that.

Ottawa and Calgary could have won. Edmonton and Vancouver too. Even Montreal 2 years ago came close, despite being by far the biggest underdog.

Other reasons I voted for is hard to attract or retain RFA/UFAs, and poor asset management.
 
Luigi, I don’t think we should be saying “Vancouver should have won”.
2011 Boston Bruins do NOT deserve to be dethroned from their rightful cup. Even in a hypothetical sense.

The team who was going win, won.



Disclaimer : you’re a long time poster, I got nothing but good things to say about your posts, so don’t think I have it out to get you. I’m just tired of people saying stuff like that
Boston deserves their cup not saying they don't. Mean it more in a way that Vancouver were the favorites and they blew it.
 
Toronto is the McDonalds of the NHL. They've proven that they can continously throw out a cheap, tasteless product and their fast-food fan base and media will line up to snarf it all down, making them mega-cash with minimal efforts and no accountability. They simply have zero need or desire to struggle to succeed.


The rest I'd say is a mixture. Mostly bad luck. Much bad drafting. Poor management. Difficulties with UFAs. Unfavorable taxes.
 
Last time it happened in 1993 when Montreal defeated Gretzky and the Kings. Hasek was a backup, many posters of the forum weren’t born yet and Kurt Cobain was recording his last album In Utero.

What are the chances of 30 years without a single cup for more than 20% of the league? Statistically it’s about 0.5%, roughly the same as winning 10 cups instead of zero.

What are the reasons, what is preventing Canadian teams from winning?
Math is off, but that’s besides the point,
 
probability, but it does help when bigger name UFAs mostly choose American teams such as Pietrangelo and Stone most recently.

That said, comparing say PIT and CHI vs TOR and EDM who all had major rebuilds with high picks over several years, it just so happens the 2 American cities did a better job.
 
It's a mixture of bad luck and poor asset management / difficulty retaining players.

Bad Luck - Some Canadian teams have made the Cup Finals since 1993. Of those teams, I would say Vancouver with the Sedins is the most notable. But outside of Vancouver, I would say Edmonton (2006), Ottawa (2007), and Montreal (2021) had a chance to break the streak but didn't.

Then you have another major factor - asset management. Cup winning teams need two things - Luck and Depth. Depth comes down to management being ruthless with cap management and, well Canadian teams haven't been. Most notably - Edmonton and Toronto. Both teams have access to a set of stars which put them near the top of the league. But both teams also awarded those stars mega deals right out of their ELC's due to fears that those players may otherwise harbor resentment and then leave. But this comes at the cost of depth. Truly, as we have seen with Pittsburgh, Chicago, LA, and recently with Vegas, Cups are won by having stars who are on team-friendly deals and surrounding those stars with tons of talent. That requires actually negotiating against young stars and making the case that they need to leave money on the table so the team can win a Cup.
 
Math is off, but that’s besides the point,
It’s not off. And there are many ways to calculate it. Straight approach is just to calculate probability for the share of Canadian teams. 0.2/0.25/0.3 whatever. This is your yearly base probability.
You make it 1 - 0.25 (for example) and 0.75 is your yearly probability of not winning. To calculate it for 30 seasons in a row you should raise it to a power where the power is your 30 seasons.

(1 - 0.25) ** 30 = 0.00017858209017001. 0.000178 is probability of never winning for 30 seasons in a row. So this is basically impossible that no Canadian team was able to win.

Also, you can calculate it with # of teams who made finals if probability there is equal. 6 Canadian teams made it to the SCF. (1 - 0.5) ** 6 = 0.015625.

Etc.
 
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Every canadian team minus Toronto and Winnipeg has made the SCF in the last 20 years, a lot of it is bad luck. I'd add weather to that list, it would be up there for me if I was a pro hockey player, especially if I had a wife whispering in my ear, which is what happens around UFA age.
 
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Bad luck (we have multiple chances and lost them all) mixed with economic and weather issues.

Economic = higher tax rates for the games played at home. Teams then have to sign players for slightly more money.

Weather = do you want snow or a beach?

Either way, we should have won at least one of the chances. Bad luck is #1
 
Pre salary cap it was mostly cap.

Now it’s a bunch of reasons.

The real question is why people give a shit.

If any other Canadian team wins it’s a f***ing awful day. It’s horrible. It’s going make them the worst fans of any sport ever and we’re supposed to be happy because of the stupidest non violent nationalism.

Luigi, I don’t think we should be saying “Vancouver should have won”.
2011 Boston Bruins do NOT deserve to be dethroned from their rightful cup. Even in a hypothetical sense.

The team who was going win, won.



Disclaimer : you’re a long time poster, I got nothing but good things to say about your posts, so don’t think I have it out to get you. I’m just tired of people saying stuff like that
The Canucks were th better team and should have won.

They didn’t.

It's a mixture of bad luck and poor asset management / difficulty retaining players.

Bad Luck - Some Canadian teams have made the Cup Finals since 1993. Of those teams, I would say Vancouver with the Sedins is the most notable. But outside of Vancouver, I would say Edmonton (2006), Ottawa (2007), and Montreal (2021) had a chance to break the streak but didn't.

Then you have another major factor - asset management. Cup winning teams need two things - Luck and Depth. Depth comes down to management being ruthless with cap management and, well Canadian teams haven't been. Most notably - Edmonton and Toronto. Both teams have access to a set of stars which put them near the top of the league. But both teams also awarded those stars mega deals right out of their ELC's due to fears that those players may otherwise harbor resentment and then leave. But this comes at the cost of depth. Truly, as we have seen with Pittsburgh, Chicago, LA, and recently with Vegas, Cups are won by having stars who are on team-friendly deals and surrounding those stars with tons of talent. That requires actually negotiating against young stars and making the case that they need to leave money on the table so the team can win a Cup.
2 of those 3 teams you say should have won were Cinderella’s who had no business even being in the fjnals


Especially the Habs who got to benefit from a joke division setup.
 

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