30 Goal season for a defenseman?

[GRob83]

Since the 93-94 season (30 years), Mike Green is the only defenseman with a 30 goal season when he scored 31 in only 68 games during the 08-09 season. Last season there were 4 defenseman that scored 20. Who is your pick for the defenseman most likely to surpass the 30 Goal mark in a season?

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[wintersej]

You really need a top top tier PP and some luck to pull it off. Only Bouchard has the right talent around him to pull it off right now but he barely got half way there last season.

 

[PainForShane]

You really need a top top tier PP and some luck to pull it off. Only Bouchard has the right talent around him to pull it off right now but he barely got half way there last season.

Idk, Boucher has too many other shooting options on that PP. We're talking about goals, not points. I think ideally it has to be a shoot-first player (who also a has a good shot) on a top tier PP with some luck as well.

OP, I voted for Makar (28 goals in 77 GP a few years ago) but Dougie Hamilton (22 goals in 2022-23) should probably an option too

 

[jonlin]

Roman Josi or Cale Makar. I actually have Josi as the better option, as he is the clear No.1 D in Nashville. Colorado has Rantanen, MacKinnon, Lehkonen and maybe Nichuskin who all can score. Josi also generates more shots than Makar yearly.

 

[wintersej]

Idk, Boucher has too many other shooting options on that PP. We're talking about goals, not points. I think ideally it has to be a shoot-first player (who also a has a good shot) on a top tier PP with some luck as well.

OP, I voted for Makar (28 goals in 77 GP a few years ago) but Dougie Hamilton (22 goals in 2022-23) should probably an option too

Doug Hamilton is a good one. I mean having multiple other options on the PP is the only way a point man is going to get enough quality looks. Green, for instance, was obviously very much not the primary options on the Washington PP where he did most of his damage.

 

[Regal]

Makar, Josi, Bouchard, Dahlin and Hamilton are probably the only ones who might be able to given talent and team situations. Karlsson probably would be an option if he was given the green light like in his 100 point year but had a better PP. I don’t think there’s any chance in Pittsburgh though. Makar getting 28 before probably makes him the most likely but there’s also an element of puck luck to something like this. I don’t think Mike Green was really doing anything different in his 31 goal year compared to his 19 the year after. The shots just went in more.

 

[PainForShane]

Doug Hamilton is a good one. I mean having multiple other options on the PP is the only way a point man is going to get enough quality looks. Green, for instance, was obviously very much not the primary options on the Washington PP where he did most of his damage.

Yeah, great point. Somehow I forgot Ovechkin on that PP (?!). Thing about Washington's PP that's been so good is that they can beat you so many ways -- you have Ovechkin, you have a guy bouncing around net front, the D have license to shoot, and then a high IQ playmaking center on the half wall just looking and waiting for the right play. And if you stick a guy on Ovechkin then you have a sustained 4-3 against 4 guys who absolutely know what they're doing in that situation.

To your previous point, luck is definitely a factor, if I remember right Green scored 30 the same year he set the record for most consecutive goals by a D (just confirmed, at one point that season he scored 8 straight games, 10 goals during that time).

Anyway we'll see. My best guess is Makar, then Josi / Hamilton, then the rest of the field. Maybe Bouchard does it, if he does it would absolutely be something to watch

 

[Fatass]

The D most likely (Hughes, Makar, Josi) are also guys who play very good defensively. So it’s highly unlikely any of these top guys will sacrifice defensive positioning to score.

 

[Phrasing]

Bouchard dark horse with the PP he’s on, but agree with Makar.

 

[syz]

Bouchard will only hit 30 if you count the ones that bounce in off Hyman.

 

[NyQuil]

Bouchard.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Obvious answer is Seamus Casey. On pace for 49 goals c'mon people.

 

[MitchMurphy]

On board for Seamus Casey.

 

[GRob83]

Obvious answer is Seamus Casey. On pace for 49 goals c'mon people.

He's converting on 75% of his shots. Is it sustainable? Only time will tell.

 

[PainForShane]

Obvious answer is Seamus Casey. On pace for 49 goals c'mon people.

Nah. Seamus Casey wasn't even a first round pick, he's 20 years old, it's too late for him as his career ceiling is already decided. Said ceiling is relatively low (certainly less than a 30 goal scorer) given his excellent (but not dominant) freshman year at MIchigan, no way he's potentially generational like some other D-men in this poll such as Cale Makar.

Keep in mind that no one's scored 30 goals in a few decades so most would say a D-man who scored 30 in a season would at the very least enter the 'potentially generational' conversation at some point assuming the goal scoring wasn't just some fluke.

Did I get that argument right?

EDIT: for all others reading this, clearly being sarcastic

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

He's converting on 75% of his shots. Is it sustainable? Only time will tell.

I was being a bit sarcastic, obviously with his current deployment and with the talent ahead of him on the NJD blue line, he's just not gonna get the opportunity this year to make a legitimate run at this.

While he's obviously not going to keep shooting 75%, I think his volume will naturally jump up with more ice time. All 3 of his goals have been absolute snipes, so he'd probably be a bit unlucky to have less than 1 goal at this point. But yeah, that's not going to continue.

That said, his 5v5 iSCF/60 of 7.33 would lead all dmen <1,000 mins from the prior 3 years, so he's getting in tight to create quality chances. It makes me think an 7-10% shooting percentage is probably pretty realistic for Casey, as he's a pretty selective shooter with a wicked wrister, who likes to move in close like Fox & Makar.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Nah. Seamus Casey was a 2nd round pick, he's 20 years old, it's too late for him at his career ceiling is already decided. Said ceiling is relatively low (far less than a 30 goal scorer) given his excellent (but not dominant) freshman year at MIchigan, no way he's potentially generational like some other D-men in this poll such as Cale Makar.

I know you're trying to be clever because your salty about Bedard not being generational, but Casey had a more productive freshman year than Makar, so your logic doesn't actually work.

I do agree though that Casey does not have Makar level upside.

 

[PainForShane]

I know you're trying to be clever because your salty about Bedard not being generational, but Casey had a more productive freshman year than Makar, so your logic doesn't actually work.

I do agree though that Casey does not have Makar level upside.

It's not my logic, it's yours. And it doesn't work for many reasons, none of which have to do with comparing production between two players' freshman years in college.

Also never said (nor do I believe) that Bedard will clearly be a generational player, and I do NOT agree that we can determine whether Casey has Makar level upside, certainly not after only a few games in the league. How is it possible to continuously misunderstand words this badly

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

He's converting on 75% of his shots. Is it sustainable? Only time will tell.

Yes.

The D most likely (Hughes, Makar, Josi) are also guys who play very good defensively. So it’s highly unlikely any of these top guys will sacrifice defensive positioning to score.

Hughes? Doubtful. If Karlsson topped out at 25 his last year in SJS, I don’t see anyone doing it.

 

[MessierII]

Bouchard could do it at some point in his career. His shot is absurd and he shoots a ton.