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3 of the top 4 Corsi teams in the league are in the Final Four.

Dallas is farther down the Corsi/xG rankings, but that's mostly because their numbers tanked after Miro went down.

If you look at their pre-Heiskanen injury metrics, they would be around 6th/7th (depending on which site and specific variant you use).

People keep dunking on analytics, yet the numbers keep vindicating themselves and are more useful predictors than the vast majority of people's opinions.
 
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bossram said:
Dallas is farther down the Corsi/xG rankings, but that's mostly because their numbers tanked after Miro went down.

If you look at their pre-Heiskanen injury metrics, they would be around 6th/7th (depending on which site and specific variant you use).

People keep dunking on analytics, yet the numbers keep vindicating themselves and are more useful predictors than the vast majority of people's opinions.
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Well, it's not like Heiskanen played a big part on them getting through the first two rounds. Although he was strong in G6.
 
HockeyVirus said:
So basically people are saying shots on goal > high danger chances?
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Not shots on goal.

Shot attempts. So it includes blocked shots, missed shots, shots on goal.

The shots themselves aren't as important as the fact that the team has the ability to consistently try shooting demonstrates that they have the puck all the time.

And so long as there's one puck, having the puck all the time not only allows for the team in question to apply pressure, it prevents the other team from scoring goals as well.

It's not everything. I love Carolina, but I think they will lose to Florida by virtue of Florida having more game-breakers (ie, players that need fewer attempts to make big plays and score goals).
 
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JaegerDice said:
Last season the 2nd best and 3rd best teams met in the Final.

If there's a rematch this year, it will again be a meeting between the 2nd best and 3rd best team.

Crazy how predictive this stat continues to be.
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You're using a sample size of 2 to make a case for how predictive a statistic is?
 
Lazlo Hollyfeld said:
You're using a sample size of 2 to make a case for how predictive a statistic is?
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Well, tongue in cheek.

I know that Corisi is predictive of wins and playoff wins over large samples because regression models consistently demonstrate it.

I also know it's not a guarentee. There have obviously been cup winners that weren't top of charts in Corsi.

Hockey is so inherently random, there is no one thing that perfectly predicts success. Too much luck involved.
 
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JaegerDice said:
Not shots on goal.

Shot attempts. So it includes blocked shots, missed shots, shots on goal.

The shots themselves aren't as important as the fact that the team has the ability to consistently try shooting demonstrates that they have the puck all the time.

And so long as there's one puck, having the puck all the time not only allows for the team in question to apply pressure, it prevents the other team from scoring goals as well.

It's not everything. I love Carolina, but I think they will lose to Florida by virtue of Florida having more game-breakers (ie, players that need fewer attempts to make big plays and score goals).
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So a perimeter team launching pucks into shin pads all night would be considered potentially an elite corsi team? I don't buy it.

What are these teams ranking by high danger chances for and against? I bet those are all top 5
 
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HockeyVirus said:
So a perimeter team launching pucks into shin pads all night would be considered potentially an elite corsi team? I don't buy it.

What are these teams ranking by high danger chances for and against? I bet those are all top 5
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Well, yeah.

You need to have the puck to create scoring chances.

Again, the result of the shot attempt is less important than the fact the team is able to shoot, retrieve, shoot again, retrieve, etc. It speaks less to the quality of the shots than the team's positioning, winning puck battles, passing, getting open, etc.

If you take a shot into a team's shinpads and the other team takes it and gets a scoring chance, that's obviously bad. But that wouldn't lead to a high Corsi. You've just exchanged a shot attempt for another, better shot attempt.

If you shoot into shinpads, get it back, shoot it into shinpads, get it back, over and over and over... you're not scoring, but you know who else isn't? The team you're pinning in the zone the whole time.

In terms of Evolving Hockey's Expected Goals (also Score and Venue adjusted), which folds in scoring chance share:

1) Carolina
2) Florida
4) Edmonton

In terms of raw Scoring chance numbers and High Danger chance numbers from Natural Stat Trick:

SCF%

1) Carolina
2) Florida
5) Edmonton

HDCF%

1) Edmonton
6) Carolina
7) Florida
 
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The Leafs have been a pretty bad possession team all season. I was afraid they would eventually succumb to a team with better puck possession ability, and that's what happened. Their corsi in the playoffs was pretty nasty (they were still good at suppressing quality shots against at times, but only bad things can happen to you when you spend a lot of time in your own end).

I think corsi definitely still matters. People should look at scoring chances, high danger chances, actual shots for and against five on five, goal differential, expected goal share etc (as well as watching and assessing), but corsi tends to always correlate with success and a lack of success League-wide (the worst teams always seem to have terrible corsi numbers).
 
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Look at how many bullshit goals have been scored in these playoffs. Goals off a shin or a defender's ass or seeing eye top corner through four guys. Simple hockey systems that get the puck going the right way quickly and establish the zone work. Much like they did in the DPE, the high flying 80s, and damn near every era before that.

Coaching I wouldn't say gets underrated exactly on this forum but it does get overlooked an awful lot. The team that executes there's the best and has the talent to get something out of it give themselves the best chance to win. In a long season/post season best chance to win will get the result more times than not.
 
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JaegerDice said:
Well, yeah.

You need to have the puck to create scoring chances.

Again, the result of the shot attempt is less important than the fact the team is able to shoot, retrieve, shoot again, retrieve, etc. It speaks less to the quality of the shots than the team's positioning, winning puck battles, passing, getting open, etc.

If you take a shot into a team's shinpads and the other team takes it and gets a scoring chance, that's obviously bad. But that wouldn't lead to a high Corsi. You've just exchanged a shot attempt for another, better shot attempt.

If you shoot into shinpads, get it back, shoot it into shinpads, get it back, over and over and over... you're not scoring, but you know who else isn't? The team you're pinning in the zone the whole time.

In terms of Evolving Hockey's Expected Goals (also Score and Venue adjusted), which folds in scoring chance share:

1) Carolina
2) Florida
4) Edmonton

In terms of raw Scoring chance numbers and High Danger chance numbers from Natural Stat Trick:

SCF%

1) Carolina
2) Florida
5) Edmonton

HDCF%

1) Edmonton
6) Carolina
7) Florida
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Way too many posts without posting complete lists or at least top 10 per here. So annoying to have to go look it up.
 
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