Post-Game Talk: #26 - 03/13/2021 | Rangers @ Bruins | 1:00 PM EST - NHLN, MSG+

[Tawnos]

At this point in his rookie season, with the benefit of a full training camp and normal schedule, Rick Nash had 13 points. Steven Stamkos had 11 points. Taylor Hall had 15 points. Nail Yakupov had 13 points. Nathan MacKinnon had 13 points. Jack Hughes had 12 points. With the exception of Hughes, every one of those first overall picks finished the season with a higher pts/gm than they had at the 26 game mark of the season.

Looked at another way, Lafrenière is at 1.13 p/60 at 5v5. Nash (1.56), Stamkos (1.01), Tavares (1.27), Hall (1.45), Yakupov (1.25), and Hughes (1.35) all had similarly mediocre starts in their first 26 games. Every single one of them improved, again except Hughes.

With the exception of Yakupov (bust) and Hughes (too soon) every one of those guys put together careers worthy of their 1OA slot.

And I don't think it can be overstated just how much the schedule this year has impacted Lafrenière and I don't think the Rangers are an outlier here.

Please show your evidence for this claim.

In the first 26 games of their rookie seasons, 6 first overall picks out of the previous 13 forwards selected there did not have top-6 5v5 production (subtracting Ovechkin from the conversation because his D+1 was lost to the lockout, so he was already a year older when he was a rookie). All of those p/60 numbers, including Lafrenière's, would have those guys ranked around 200-300 among forwards. Even MacKinnon, who was higher up at 2.09 p/60 in that time frame, still only ranked around 75th. Lafrenière is certainly at the lower end of the spectrum right now.

26 games isn't a huge time frame, but it shows that a lot of these guys have an adjustment period where they don't produce at a top-6 level.

 

[2014nyr]

I hear you. I just think Quinn is very into the whole "you have to earn things" outlook and sometimes, especially during a rebuild, letting kids f*** up to gain confidence is the better way to go.

At even strength, I really can't complain, but Lafreniere basically doesn't get meaningful powerplay time. He gets his 10 seconds chasing a clear with the second unit.

It's doubly annoying with our first unit being trash anyway. It's not like he's being kept off the ice by a 28% powerplay.

i think the earn thing is a balance. we're unique for top picks to join because the cupboard isn't bare. and in kakko / lafs case they have been given basically everything but pp1 time. now where i do agree is i don't like how reluctant to change he is on a pp thats been a complete disaster. i think laf would be the more likely candidate but theres a few big concerns for me. for one, he just hasn't shown any signs of being able to control play when he has had time and space with the puck on the pp...i don't see being added to pp1 helping him there. the other thing, and its probably a theme, is who do you remove and how does that go over. the spot he's played in juniors has been mikas on his off side, and while mika has been a disaster on the pp, it would prob still be a bit awkward for laf to take his spot. at this point, i think you could do that with mika just based on lack production and changing things up, but i wouldn't expect it to work well.

to your broader point though, it is something that bothers me with quinn for sure re his personnel decision making at times. georgiev has been killing this team all season but we just finally reached the breaking point. brett howden somehow avoids getting scratched because intentions, faceoffs, and being on pk. on the latter two, he's still not good at faceoffs, everyone else is just terrible. but its not like we can rely on him to win them in big moments or anything. and his pk work, i mean the pk has been very good, but he adds nothing. every time hes out there we're almost always pinned and under attack and either get a save or a d makes a big play. he never breaks up a play or closes on someone to clear. and hes certainly no threat to score. meanwhile gauthier works hard but gets yoyod. and i get it to some extent trying to get more out of someone you see potential in and demanding it, but its still frustrating to see howden always out there when he does literally nothing. so i am not quinns biggest fan on certain things, hes far from perfect. but if its just about kakko/laf, i think its the wrong move to replace him now. for all the things we dont like, theres been a lot of good and a lot of progress overall. no matter who was brought in, every coach has things that drive fans nuts. av was awful in his own ways, torts had his warts etc. so theres also a the devil you know element in my thinking. for me its another year before theres any way to have a fair evaluation of where this things going

 

[duhmetreE]

In the first 26 games of their rookie seasons, 6 first overall picks out of the previous 13 forwards selected there did not have top-6 5v5 production (subtracting Ovechkin from the conversation because his D+1 was lost to the lockout, so he was already a year older when he was a rookie). All of those p/60 numbers, including Lafrenière's, would have those guys ranked around 200-300 among forwards. Even MacKinnon, who was higher up at 2.09 p/60 in that time frame, still only ranked around 75th. Lafrenière is certainly at the lower end of the spectrum right now.

26 games isn't a huge time frame, but it shows that a lot of these guys have an adjustment period where they don't produce at a top-6 level.

Is it convenient that you're only looking at 5v5? No one expects him to dominate 5v5. I speak for myself, I think he's fine 5v5 and has had many high quality scoring chances. The point, or my issue, is to put him in position to succeed..

Determining if he has 'earned' his PP1 time, by how he plays 5v5 is dumb imo. This isn't some random prospect... It's a highly regarded first overall pick. The 1st of our franchises history. No one expects him to be a perfect, well rounded player but he has not been afforded to play to his strengths. Colin Blackwell has more PP1 time over Alexis Lafreniere. THAT is my issue.

It's as simple as this.... Can we PLEASE put our best prospect EVER on a PP1 that has been struggling ALL year. I don't know why anyone takes issue with this?

 

[Tawnos]

Is it convenient that you're only looking at 5v5? No one expects him to dominate 5v5. I speak for myself, I think he's fine 5v5 and has had many high quality scoring chances. The point, or my issue, is to put him in position to succeed..

Determining if he has 'earned' his PP1 time, by how he plays 5v5 is dumb imo. This isn't some random prospect... It's a highly regarded first overall pick. The 1st of our franchises history. No one expects him to be a perfect, well rounded player but he has not been afforded to play to his strengths. Colin Blackwell has more PP1 time over Alexis Lafreniere. THAT is my issue.

It's as simple as this.... Can we PLEASE put our best prospect EVER on a PP1 that has been struggling ALL year. I don't know why anyone takes issue with this?

The question was whether these guys were top-6 caliber players when they came into the league. Top-6 by very definition is a 5v5 proposition. Power play production doesn’t do anything to answer that question. Also, since (as you point out) Lafreniére isn’t getting a lot of power play time, how can you compare his performance to guys who did without normalizing to shared time on ice standards? Doing this any other way wouldn’t give you any meaningful info.

For what it’s worth, I agree that he should be getting more time on the power play. I mentioned earlier in the thread that one of Quinn’s flaws is that he sometimes sticks with things that aren’t working for too long and cited the power play as the prime example of that. I don’t know about PP1, necessarily, but I think at the very least Quinn needs to get the struggling PP1 to be more disciplined in getting their asses off the ice halfway through.

 

[duhmetreE]

The question was whether these guys were top-6 caliber players when they came into the league. Top-6 by very definition is a 5v5 proposition. Power play production doesn’t do anything to answer that question. Also, since (as you point out) Lafreniére isn’t getting a lot of power play time, how can you compare his performance to guys who did without normalizing to shared time on ice standards? Doing this any other way wouldn’t give you any meaningful info.

For what it’s worth, I agree that he should be getting more time on the power play. I mentioned earlier in the thread that one of Quinn’s flaws is that he sometimes sticks with things that aren’t working for too long and cited the power play as the prime example of that. I don’t know about PP1, necessarily, but I think at the very least Quinn needs to get the struggling PP1 to be more disciplined in getting their asses off the ice halfway through.

That in of itself is the issue. How often does a 1OA get this little PP time? Shouldn't 0 PPP and 0 PP1 time be alarming? I have no issue with how he's being used/playing 5v5.

 

[bl02]

The question was whether these guys were top-6 caliber players when they came into the league. Top-6 by very definition is a 5v5 proposition. Power play production doesn’t do anything to answer that question. Also, since (as you point out) Lafreniére isn’t getting a lot of power play time, how can you compare his performance to guys who did without normalizing to shared time on ice standards? Doing this any other way wouldn’t give you any meaningful info.

For what it’s worth, I agree that he should be getting more time on the power play. I mentioned earlier in the thread that one of Quinn’s flaws is that he sometimes sticks with things that aren’t working for too long and cited the power play as the prime example of that. I don’t know about PP1, necessarily, but I think at the very least Quinn needs to get the struggling PP1 to be more disciplined in getting their asses off the ice halfway through.

This is usually what happens...First unit out there. Loses faceoff. Takes about 25-30 seconds to get back into the zone. Fiddle around with the puck making passes and maintaining possession but not coming close to scoring. Opposing team clears the puck with about 35-40 second or so to go on the pp. First unit slowly gets off the ice replaced by pp unit two who try to gain the zone. when they do there is about 20 seconds left in the pp.

 

[DanielBrassard]

In the first 26 games of their rookie seasons, 6 first overall picks out of the previous 13 forwards selected there did not have top-6 5v5 production (subtracting Ovechkin from the conversation because his D+1 was lost to the lockout, so he was already a year older when he was a rookie). All of those p/60 numbers, including Lafrenière's, would have those guys ranked around 200-300 among forwards. Even MacKinnon, who was higher up at 2.09 p/60 in that time frame, still only ranked around 75th. Lafrenière is certainly at the lower end of the spectrum right now.

26 games isn't a huge time frame, but it shows that a lot of these guys have an adjustment period where they don't produce at a top-6 level.

Hmm, well I see where you are coming from. Regarding Nash, I don't know how to find /60 numbers for his rookie season, I think I would have to manually calculate the rate for every single player in the league to find out where he stood which would be extremely time consuming. But taking your 1.56 p/60 number would have him around 170th in the league this season which would make him just barely a top-6 scorer. However if you adjust for the fact that scoring was quite a bit lower that season at 5.3GPG compared to this season which is around 5.94 GPG, I think it would firmly entrench Nash as a 2nd line producer.

I don't love subtracting Ovechkin because the likelihood of him not scoring at a top-6 level considering the talent he was and is seems extremely low but for the sake of argument I will go along with it.

Just to add some more context, for all 1st overall forwards since 2007-2008 since this is how long ago the data goes back.

According to Evolving-Hockey: after 26 games played minimum 200 minutes played
Kane: 2.19 p/60, 60th
Tavares: 1.55 p/60, 131st
Hall: 1.41P/60, 189th
Yakupov: 1.24 p/60, 201st
Mackinnon: 1.91 p/60 82nd
McDavid: 2.92 p/60, 2nd
Matthews: 1.99 p/60, 58th
Hischier: 2.45 p/60, 34th
Hughes: 1.36 p/60, 230th
Lafreniere: 1.1P/60, 268th

Throw in Nash and Crosby who were most likely producing at a top-6 level at that time and the large majority of 1st overall forwards make an impact right away at a top-6 forward level. 9/13 if you don't count Ovechkin. This doesn't take into account linemates, shot generation/suppression, or luck but gives a decent look at 1st overall contributions. Unfortunately, Lafreniere has been by far the worst.

 

[Synergy27]

That in of itself is the issue. How often does a 1OA get this little PP time? Shouldn't 0 PPP and 0 PP1 time be alarming? I have no issue with how he's being used/playing 5v5.

I mean, does this really all just boil down to the Rangers getting the 1OA draft pick by winning the lottery vice really sucking? Would Lafreniere look like the player we know he is in almost any other bad team in which he’d be the go to forward in all offensive situations? Do you think they’ve just told him to straight up focus on two way play and keep it simple?

 

[Rempe73]

How is it mental gymnastics? I've given you hard evidence that literally the only vet struggling is Zibanejad.

Somehow, Zibanejad and just Zibanejad turned into "the kids are struggling because the vets are struggling" but I'll get accused of cherry-picking evidence.

To be fair, Zibanejad struggling creates a trickle-down effect on the team. I don’t know if you remember, but one poster outlined how a few weeks ago.

On the other hand however, Zibanejad has been slowly improving anyways. He’s great defensively, he’s still a high-end playmaker, he can still dangle when he wants to, and he can still skate well. The only glaring issue is his broken one-timer, but that only really affects the power play. I’d argue that last season was likely the outlier, and right now he is what he is at this point. Still a 1C, but not top 5-10 in the league at his position anymore. All of this to say that I pretty much agree with you.

 

[Larrybiv]

I haven’t watched I know he was already talented and spent a few years in the K but is that the difference between him and Kakko/Laf? More years developing? Or does Minnesota let him run wild out there and do his thing?

Well, look how Zuccha and Kaprisov have a thing together. Chemistry. I think Bjugstad has centered them. Big and burly, always liked him with Panthers. Forms an exciting line.

Guess the point is, who is catering to Kakko, to Laf? So they can do "their thing". Cant do shit WITHOUT the puck.

 

[Larrybiv]

to me its about the locker room. a lot of the core "older" guys like mika, buch, kreider, strome have really taken off under him. even panarin has been more productive than ever before. this would be a move that really tells them they don't matter if we dump a guy they think a lot of because 2 kids aren't scoring enough points. to make a move like that on a team that at best was supposed to sneak into the playoffs - and in a one off year like this that really hurt us more than most teams, the random issues and injuries, they're not out of it with half a season. we're right where we expected to be, the contributions just arent what we thought would put us there. theres just nothing you can do to force kakko or laf to grow up faster. all you can do is try to put support for them in place off ice and provide a stable environment/ culture that makes them comfortable growing up in. a coaching change doesn't do that, creating division in the locker room doesn't do that. the production is going to come no matter what if the talent and drive is there, and all indications are its there in both.

i really think laf was hit in so many ways by how the last year has played out for who he is a a person. hes never really been away from home. if i remember right he didn't even apply for exceptional status, he wanted to stay home and play another year with his friends. he's not a robot like crosby or mcdavid, he's more of a kid in a lot of ways and those things make a bigger impact.

kakko ...look at a guy like barkov who went 3rd overall, was expected to be close to ready made due to his size, had played against men. it was 4 seasons before he really broke out. i dont think any coach would have expedited that much. superstars dont need to be told how to play hockey, there's little things they can pick up to improve marginally. but the big picture impact talent is there or it isnt, and it just took time for him to acclimate to a different game and develop physically. we all want to see them thriving now, but that they aren't doesn't mean theres a quick fix and to me the priority needs to be the overall team and the culture of the locker room. there's been no regression, i think next year is where theres an expectation for serious progress. unless the culture of the room calls for change sooner i think making one does a lot more harm than good.

I've actually changed my mind on Quinn's dismissal and although I respect @Machinehead 's opinion and stance, I think it will do more harm than good in respect to the locker room.
Stability is what kids NEED more than anything. They need a healthy relationship with those trying to make them better. Whether its accountability, "tricks of the trade", better defensive positioning, whatever. Any kid that strives to be better will LISTEN, and its just matter of time until they "get it".
No coach will come in here and change anything, this year especially.
If Laf, Kakko and Chytil all of a sudden scored a ppg for 10 games, would that automatically mean that Quinn should get full credit for such? No. But, he should get a lot. When things do eventually uptick, he should be around to enjoy it, because he probably had everything to do with it along with father time. It Takes time, and firing Quinn and expecting magic from another coach (and it could) would be unfair, and the credit would all go to the new coach for bringing out their offensive success, when it was just the timing, yet all of Quinn's hard work and guidance.

Kind of like how AV had a good defensive team when he took over, though NONE of that was due to him, was Torts doing. He got the remnants of it.

 

[Larrybiv]

You're crazy

Thanks for the confirmation, on what I already surmise.

 

[Jjksport]

It's good that they're driving play but I can also see why they're not scoring. They get into the zone effectively but they're not very creative. I don't think Quinn knows how to teach NHL offense to guys who have never done it. Guys just kind of do what they do. That's good for guys like Panarin but I think we need somebody to bring in a plan with the puck the way Martin has established a plan without the puck.

I think he has sent a message LOUD and CLEAR: to all the young players, that if you try to be creative and it does work, you will lose playing time. The opposite of helping developing their games. A good offense coach teaches how to maximize situations. 2 on 1 a defensemen, move the puck slightly to change were his stick is to open a lane. Get into good supporting positions then move into open spots that are creative. Every game I see a Ranger player get a loose puck look to make a pass and his teammates are either standing still looking at him or skate at him like their playing defense and getting back.
I understand the need to dump the puck in, but when you have a teammate coming with speed and the defensemen is already turning to get your dump in, why are you not passing and entering the zone with possession? It is safer to dump it in, then hustle and chase it down, play defense and look for a turnover. This why the have some much trouble coming back in games.

 

[Inferno]

I think he has sent a message LOUD and CLEAR: to all the young players, that if you try to be creative and it does work, you will lose playing time.

I can't....I just...cant

 

[Tawnos]

Hmm, well I see where you are coming from. Regarding Nash, I don't know how to find /60 numbers for his rookie season, I think I would have to manually calculate the rate for every single player in the league to find out where he stood which would be extremely time consuming. But taking your 1.56 p/60 number would have him around 170th in the league this season which would make him just barely a top-6 scorer. However if you adjust for the fact that scoring was quite a bit lower that season at 5.3GPG compared to this season which is around 5.94 GPG, I think it would firmly entrench Nash as a 2nd line producer.

I don't love subtracting Ovechkin because the likelihood of him not scoring at a top-6 level considering the talent he was and is seems extremely low but for the sake of argument I will go along with it.

Just to add some more context, for all 1st overall forwards since 2007-2008 since this is how long ago the data goes back.

According to Evolving-Hockey: after 26 games played minimum 200 minutes played
Kane: 2.19 p/60, 60th
Tavares: 1.55 p/60, 131st
Hall: 1.41P/60, 189th
Yakupov: 1.24 p/60, 201st
Mackinnon: 1.91 p/60 82nd
McDavid: 2.92 p/60, 2nd
Matthews: 1.99 p/60, 58th
Hischier: 2.45 p/60, 34th
Hughes: 1.36 p/60, 230th
Lafreniere: 1.1P/60, 268th

Throw in Nash and Crosby who were most likely producing at a top-6 level at that time and the large majority of 1st overall forwards make an impact right away at a top-6 forward level. 9/13 if you don't count Ovechkin. This doesn't take into account linemates, shot generation/suppression, or luck but gives a decent look at 1st overall contributions. Unfortunately, Lafreniere has been by far the worst.

I'm not really sure where I made the mistake with Tavares yesterday and his p/60, but your number is correct. The problem is, where that number falls depends a lot on how you filter the data. 200 minutes plus is perfectly reasonable. So is having played 13 games by November 27, 2009 (when Tavares had played 26), but that filter puts Tavares at 161. Similar to Nash... in the top-6, but not firmly.

So let's re-frame... I'd say that 3 guys missed the top-6 mark completely (Stamkos, Yakupov, Hughes), 3 guys were somewhat borderline (Nash, Tavares, Hall) and 6 were absolute (Crosby, Kane, MacKinnon, McDavid, Matthews, Hischier). 3-6 guys out of 13, depending on how you choose to interpret all that, is still enough to say that this kind of thing isn't that uncommon. The 100% most important thing, to me, is still that all of the guys except for Hughes in the missed and borderline categories ended up improving on their numbers. And who knows with Hughes, maybe the last 20 games of the season that he didn't get to play last year would've seen him do the same.

Lafrenière is either the worst or Stamkos is, but I think we can also all agree that this year is weird as f***, so things could change for him pretty rapidly.

 

[ohbaby]

Kravtsov if he’s lucky will get 10 mins a night with zero powerplay. We all know it

With the team healthy at the moment, he doesn't even have a chance to break the lineup. Gauthier and Howden sat last night, and they are ahead of Kravtsov in the depth chart.