Salary Cap: 24-25 Salary Thread Crosbicles Volume MXVI: End of season wrap up

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

And Ryan Whitney is still pissed about it to this day which, in the grand scheme of things, is almost as joyous to me as the actual cup win.

He tries to pretend it's funny,

But you KNOW it actually digs at him.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I don't remotely have the time, but I'd love to dig into some deep statistics on contract value vs advanced stats. Like, you can split 95m evenly among all your players and pay each of them 4.13m. Split minutes evenly where all the Fs play 15 min a night and the D 20, minus time on the kill while you're a man down. That's a deep team with no stars. Your power play probably isn't very good. You'll be great at team d, will struggle against top pairing defense but cave in 3rs pairs.

Or you load up on stars at 11-15m per and fill rest with scrubs. You have a deadly power play, but get caved 5v5.

Optimum is obviously somewhere in the middle, but where? Is it better to pay 14m to a 100pt player or 7m to 2x 50 point players? Probably good to have some of each to fill out the roster. You could boil this all down to an advanced statsoney ball optimum, and I'm interested to see the results.

I think where this goes out the window is when you see that, more often than not, game breakers have that extra worth in a tight playoff series.

"On paper", you might be better balanced having 4 guys scoring 50 points rather than Sid and Geno taking up the same cap space. But in a 7 game series where you're looking for that game breaker to bust open a 1-1 game, the team with the superstars taking up a big percent of cap likely trumps the team with the 4 lines of average players.

I think the problem is people look at Toronto as the evidence you shouldn't go top heavy, but ignore the fact it's an outlier because it just so happened their "top heavy stars" are all chokers.

 

[Peat]

They had that 3rd line which was good. Kennedy-Staal-??? Wasn’t Cooke, he came later? Who was it? My memory is shot.

Letang and Gonchar were good. Scuds and Gill made a good 3rd pairing.

Geno played with Talbot and Fedatenko which is ridiculous considering he won the Smythe. Overall looking at that roster it did not look like a SC winner.

We talking '08 playoffs or '09? 08, it was Kennedy and Ruutu, 09 it was Kennedy and Cooke.

The with and without numbers for the team with Sid & Geno vs not in those two were insane though. In 2008, +9 with them on ice, -4 with them off it (at 5v5). 2009, +10 with them on ice, -5 with them off it. Decent PK to be fair, but basically carried by Sid & Geno with the bottom six performing damage control.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

I imagine every single team's gonna check in.

The Sharks are interesting. Could result in that team taking some huge strides if Marner and Celebrini work well together. Plus living in San Jose, and not having anybody recognize you or give a shit on the street is probably exactly what he needs.

Talented young players in San Jose too. First 2 years there 0 expectations and the cap goes up making the contract look fine.

I definitely would pick the sharks.

 

[Pancakes]

Talented young players in San Jose too. First 2 years there 0 expectations and the cap goes up making the contract look fine.

I definitely would pick the sharks.

I don't know why Marner would go there. The Sharks are really bad. They aren't turning it around in one off season even with Marner.

I don't know why he'd come here or to Chicago for the same reason.

Does Marner really want to go through a rebuild?

 

[Jared Grayden]

I don't know why Marner would go there. The Sharks are really bad. They aren't turning it around in one off season even with Marner.

I don't know why he'd come here or to Chicago for the same reason.

Does Marner really want to go through a rebuild?

Plenty think he just wants the most money in which case it might be a rebuilding team.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

I mean that 08 team was not that deep looking back at it. Sid and Geno just carried it.

09 team was not. 08 was very good.

 

[Gurglesons]

2008 team was better than the 2009 team.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

2008 team was better than the 2009 team.

I mean... Hossa, alone...

 

[HandshakeLine]

I think luck has way more to do with cups than people want to believe.

 

[PensFutures]

Malone-Malkin-Sykora

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Blackhawks, Kings, Sharks, Flames, Penguins will pursue Marner aggressively - per David Pagnotta

Teams with cap space will pursue coveted, talented player. Shocking.

 

[Pancakes]

Plenty think he just wants the most money in which case it might be a rebuilding team.

If money is his main objective then yeah I'm sure some of these rebuilding teams would back up the dump truck for him.

But I'd have to think that a contender might be able to clear some cap too. I dunno. Should be interesting to see where he ends up.

I can't see it being with us unless my guy really loves Kyle and Sid that much.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

And Ryan Whitney is still pissed about it to this day which, in the grand scheme of things, is almost as joyous to me as the actual cup win.

Well the Ducks were idiots bc part of the reason Whitney was on the block was due to his nagging foot injury.
I remember reading about the trade the next day and I thought we were giving up something else. Highway robbery for sure by Shero.

 

[molon labe]

I think where this goes out the window is when you see that, more often than not, game breakers have that extra worth in a tight playoff series.

"On paper", you might be better balanced having 4 guys scoring 50 points rather than Sid and Geno taking up the same cap space. But in a 7 game series where you're looking for that game breaker to bust open a 1-1 game, the team with the superstars taking up a big percent of cap likely trumps the team with the 4 lines of average players.

I think the problem is people look at Toronto as the evidence you shouldn't go top heavy, but ignore the fact it's an outlier because it just so happened their "top heavy stars" are all chokers.

Top heavy isn't adding enough attributes though.

Sid/Geno played different games, historically contributed without one another, and utilized different linemates in different ways. [And, when actually successful, had actual depth which added really solid and UNIQUE elements to the ice]

You can be top heavy with Matthews/Tkachuk (either) in your lineup. You can be top heavy with Sid/Ovi on the same line. You can't be top heavy when all 4 of your top guys score the most/best against the same type of opposition requiring the same type of play.

Toronto was always flawed because they weren't balanced whatsoever. That market craved EA sports level of team building though and expected the oppo to come out on easy mode. Dubas was just as bright eyed and bushy tailed about it.

JR had an eye for what this team needed when it needed it. Even some of his historic blunders were not without merrit. Team needed grit, team needed a 3C, team needed strength on the blueline (Reaves/Brassard/JMFJ).... Dubas and Toronto would trade out Marner for Bedard or Barzal tomorrow if they could and wonder next May why oh why are they being eliminated again.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

I don't know why Marner would go there. The Sharks are really bad. They aren't turning it around in one off season even with Marner.

I don't know why he'd come here or to Chicago for the same reason.

Does Marner really want to go through a rebuild?

Possibly not.

What team with cap space would he go to?

Carolina? He didn't want to be traded there. Could have signed a 8 year deal to boot.

Toronto? Well this is assuming he is leaving

Flames? Can't see it.

Vegas? Is he taking a pay cut? I threw Marner there and it is so damn tight for them to compete if he went there.

What team is he going to get paid his 12+ and compete instantly.

MAybe the ducks? They seem to be breaking out.

Plenty think he just wants the most money in which case it might be a rebuilding team.

My thoughts. I imagine he would be signed 11.5 or 12 x 8 on Toronto if he wasn't aiming for top dollar

 

[molon labe]

If money is his main objective then yeah I'm sure some of these rebuilding teams would back up the dump truck for him.

But I'd have to think that a contender might be able to clear some cap too. I dunno. Should be interesting to see where he ends up.

I can't see it being with us unless my guy really loves Kyle and Sid that much.

Plenty of teams will have the space, the incentives, or the ability to land him. It'll be the Summer of Marner now that Rantanen is locked up.

Florida can make it happen without much in the way of complexity.

San Jose offers quite a bit to a guy coming from Toronto and has young talent.

Chicago blows but has a neat city and Bedard... that's something.

We have Sid and Duber. Maybe that's enough. For at least a year or two he won't be looked at as 'the guy' and we could always make a deal with him that we'll trade him later on.

Just the start. There will probably be a dozen or more teams immediately talking to his agent and that list will probably come down to 4 at some point. I'm not getting the feeling he's gonna be the guy who signs 1 minute in to free agency.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

If money is his main objective then yeah I'm sure some of these rebuilding teams would back up the dump truck for him.

But I'd have to think that a contender might be able to clear some cap too. I dunno. Should be interesting to see where he ends up.

I can't see it being with us unless my guy really loves Kyle and Sid that much.

I think this is it exactly. I mean, I personally don't think we are THAT bad but I think the prevailing wisdom is that we are. And that trickles down to the players.

BUT, being close to his roots while still being relatively far, playing with Crosby and playing for an organization we assume he can trust (because of Dubas, Spezza, Clark et al) does have some appeal for him, one would think.

At the end of the day, let's be real here. He is a freshly married man with a newborn child. Wherever Mrs. Marner wants to live is likely Mitch Marner's next NHL destination.

We have seen that movie before.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Mitch can experience the joy of Cranberry. He can eat at Jimmy Wan's. Sit in traffic. Send his kids to school in Seneca Valley, send them to rehab in Sewickley.

 

[DesertPenguin]

We talking '08 playoffs or '09? 08, it was Kennedy and Ruutu, 09 it was Kennedy and Cooke.

The with and without numbers for the team with Sid & Geno vs not in those two were insane though. In 2008, +9 with them on ice, -4 with them off it (at 5v5). 2009, +10 with them on ice, -5 with them off it. Decent PK to be fair, but basically carried by Sid & Geno with the bottom six performing damage control.

I mean, we were deploying 3rd line as an energy line, basically playing defense by mucking it up and holding possession in their zone if not scoring much, and the 4th as a hold on for dear life defensive pairing, so that tracks.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Mitch can experience the joy of Cranberry. He can eat at Jimmy Wan's. Sit in traffic. Send his kids to school in Seneca Valley, send them to rehab in Sewickley.

LOL. I am hoping he is a fan of Primanti Brothers. I mean up here in Canada Colby Armstrong does these "visit the USA" commercials that are on SportsNet during the season and Armstrong visits Primanti Bros. I am sure Marner has been there.

Heck, I went ONCE to Primanti Bros...following the Game 4 loss to the Red Wings in 2008 and I did not want to leave.

Other than blues music, there is nothing more comforting after a loss than french fries in your sub.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

If it's a given he won't be the best player in a series with Barkov and Tkachuk, then I don't get the pushback against questioning whether he's a spearhead and leader in the NHL.

I know I'm part of an argument in which Turin seems to be pressing for the main problem in the Toronto-Marner thing being that Marner's just been that disappointing and not that Toronto is insane, and everyone wants to put the emphasis on Toronto being insane as a result.

But I think people are really glossing over Marner's role in this a little too much. Marner took a contract that said, yes, expect me to go the dude. I can be the best player in a series with Barkov and Tkachuk. It's pretty much never happened. That's a problem in any fanbase. Toronto makes it worse, so much worse, but it's a problem anywhere.

Ahh I mean on bolded… how many players are what you described? Moreover how many players are in their prime and are what you described.

Proved it and still in prime:
Barkov
(maybe Tkachuk but not like he did anything pre Barkov/FLA)
McDavid
Drai
Eichel
Makar
MacKinnon
Kucherov
Hedman
Point
Rantanen

Perhaps but still need to win + still in prime:
Kaprizov
Johnston
Heiskanen
BTkachuk
Connor
????

Like ok I’d rather those guys on my team over Marner. And ofc there are others in the league that I would take over him. He can both be responsible for the Leafs shortcomings while taking too much blame/hate.

I guess my point is there are what 10, maybe 15 of these spearhead guys lying around. Maybe 1-2 (Kaprizov or Connor) might be available in the next 14 months and neither has been a spearhead past the 2nd round (Connor was a rookie in smaller when WPG went deep).

It’s ok for Marner to not to be one of them and still be in demand and make a lot of $$$. That’s a function of the market, demand, and great timing on signing contracts.

I’m also confused why we don’t expect him to take the best contract for himself. Fans liking it is a separate argument. Panarin is in a big market on a big ticket and doesn’t get killed. Pasta is paid similarly and doesn’t get killed for past few years of no success. I think there is 100% validity to Marner being a bit of a choker to this point. But I think it is only “a bit” and hes only considered this big time loser player because the market he is in is insane.

 

[Gurglesons]

Marner signed his contract in 19-20.

In terms of players with comparable GP in the playoffs he's 11th in that time in production per game and 33rd in raw points.

In the regular season he's 8th in that time in production per game and raw points.

Not really sure what else people are expecting him to do.

He was 12th in cap hit this season.

 

[Empoleon8771]

McGroarty-Crosby-Marner
Koivunen-Malkin-Rust
Hallander-Novak-Tomasino
Dewar-Lizotte-Ponomarev

Hague-Letang
Byram-Chatfield
Pickering-Timmins

Jarry-Nedjelkovic

Get it done Dubas

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Leafs had opportunity to trade Knies for Rantanen and didn’t do it

That’s kinda crazy to me