Salary Cap: 24-25 Salary Thread Crosbicles Volume MXVI: End of season wrap up

[CheckingLineCenter]

The Penguins just keep him then? Karlsson isn't demanding a trade as far as we know, they can just hold onto him and trade him down the line.

Which I’ve said they should do instead of trying to convince myself he’s worth multiple decent pieces.

If they trade him it’s going to be because they don’t think he’s an asset for where they are as a team and they’re going to get very little. It will be a move just to get rid of him. Hope I’m wrong and you’re right but I just don’t see it.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

Maybe he's always wanted to live closer to the RV Hall of Fame in Dayton Ohio?

That's actually in Indiana. I know this bc I take the turnpike on my way to Chicago and it's right on 80/90.
I'm full of useless bits of info!

Home - RV/MH Hall of Fame

Welcome to the RV/MH Hall of Fame Our mission is to recognize, preserve, and honor the history, pioneers, and individuals who have been instrumental in making the Recreational Vehicle and Manufactured Housing industries what they are today. Summer Hours: April 1st – November 1st Monday -Saturday...

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[Buddy Bizarre]

I think if Marner will come here for a reasonable number you do it 10/10 times

Problem is he’s only coming here if you’re throwing a big time bag at him, which probably isn’t prudent with where we are at.

The cap going up considerably shouldn't be an issue for us to sign him long term. The biggest issue is we absolutely CANNOT offer NTC's to people who are coming here as FAs. That's gotta stop bc it hamstrings you significantly.

NO MORE NMCs!!!!

 

[Gurglesons]

put it this way- look at Marchand

Better “rep”, more flexible contract clause (M-NTC vs NMC), less cap hit, less term, 50% retained

Return: Conditional 2nd three drafts out (that now will be a 1st actually I believe due to conditions being met)

I think yall are significantly overestimating what EK is getting back in a trade.

I think the big difference is wingers never return anything in a trade.

Also, the D market is so low.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I think the big difference is wingers never return anything in a trade.

Also, the D market is so low.

I’d love to be wrong just not seeing it

Maybe he waives for 3-4 different teams though and we get something of note.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Which I’ve said they should do instead of trying to convince myself he’s worth multiple decent pieces.

If they trade him it’s going to be because they don’t think he’s an asset for where they are as a team and they’re going to get very little. It will be a move just to get rid of him. Hope I’m wrong and you’re right but I just don’t see it.

Eh I've heard enough smoke about Karlsson having interest while retained that I'm not super worried about the return he'd get. At worst, I think it's like a 2nd and a decent prospect. If they're taking back a contract, I think the return could be a bit better.

Something like Karlsson at 50% to Ottawa for Stephen Halliday and a 2025 2nd seems about right for what an EK trade could look like.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Eh I've heard enough smoke about Karlsson having interest while retained

Again… It is not about league interest in him- it is about the NMC.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Don't you all just love that Graves is signed until almost 2030?

 

[Peat]

Have we any indication as to the team's willingness to retain on Karlsson to get a return? Because a good rule of thumb is teams are usually a lot less keen on the idea than fans.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

You hate to blame goaltending but Woll did them no favors. If I'm the Leafs I'm feeling similar to how we felt in 2022 when we lost with Dominique. While there were certainly problems up and down the line up, something about losing your starter and then losing the series with your backup doesn't always sit well.

To me though, Leafs are at the 2014 Penguins point. They have Neal. You can feel this "this ain't it" feeling when you watch them play. You know Florida has "it" - that culture and intestinal fortitude needed to make it through four rounds. It's RS vs PO hockey. They need to go get their Hornqvist, their Cullen, their Bonino, etc. They have step 1 in Knies. Now is the time to take the next steps.

I think if Stolarz plays the series may have turned out differently too.

But the biggest issue was Toronto's back end and neutral zone. They couldn't escape Fl's forecheck in the defensive zone and even when they did, they eventually lost it in the NZ. They need better puck movers.

And yes Tavares/Marner/Matthews/Nylander all play a high skilled game. When the playoffs come they get pushed around too easily. They need a Neal for Horny type trade.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Again… It is not about league interest in him- it is about the NMC.

I don't really see why Karlsson would handicap the Penguins by refusing to waive to go anywhere. He has been pretty adamant about how he's solely focused on winning. I think he has generally liked his time in Pittsburgh (from what we've read), but they're obviously not contending anymore and him refusing to waive to go anywhere just makes it more likely he doesn't leave.

This isn't "he should waive his NMC to help the team out", but it's not really practical for him to refuse to waive to go anywhere if he actually wants to win. I'm not sure why he'd do that. I'm not going to argue he'll waive to go anywhere but I'm also not seeing much of a reason to think he would refuse to waive to only 1 specific team.

Have we any indication as to the team's willingness to retain on Karlsson to get a return? Because a good rule of thumb is teams are usually a lot less keen on the idea than fans.

Karlsson isn't owed much money though, that's why I think the retention could be higher. Retaining 50% of his deal after July 1st would only cost the Penguins $5 million in actual money retained.

 

[Trade]

re: Marner... as more of a distributor I don't know how much he even really does, here. Who actually scores the goals?

 

[Empoleon8771]

From what was reported, I believe Karlsson was willing to waive his NMC to go to Carolina, Pittsburgh and Edmonton when he was traded last. Seattle also had interest in him but he wasn't willing to waive to go there. I think the amount of teams he'd be willing to waive to would be small, but I don't see a "Karlsson will only waive for 1 team that doesn't want him" as all that likely of a scenario.

I'd guess Edmonton and Carolina would still be on the list while a few other teams that probably can't fit him in (like Dallas and Vegas) would also be who Karlsson would allow a trade to.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

From what was reported, I believe Karlsson was willing to waive his NMC to go to Carolina, Pittsburgh and Edmonton when he was traded last. Seattle also had interest in him but he wasn't willing to waive to go there. I think the amount of teams he'd be willing to waive to would be small, but I don't see a "Karlsson will only waive for 1 team that doesn't want him" as all that likely of a scenario.

I'd guess Edmonton and Carolina would still be on the list while a few other teams that probably can't fit him in (like Dallas and Vegas) would also be who Karlsson would allow a trade to.

Without getting bogged down in semantics:

came down to 2 teams last time and he got a late 1st (believed at the time) + 2nd + cap dumps

That was off a Norris and 100 pts.

I am saying if it goes similarly you’re getting a worse return than that.

Karlsson isn't owed much money though, that's why I think the retention could be higher. Retaining 50% of his deal after July 1st would only cost the Penguins $5 million in actual money retained

Believe @Peat is asking if there are reports

Because $5M isn’t just no big deal

 

[Peat]

Yeah, seeing if there was any reports, although being reminded of his low actual money left at this point is welcome.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Without getting bogged down in semantics:

came down to 2 teams last time and he got a late 1st (believed at the time) + 2nd + cap dumps

That was off a Norris and 100 pts.

I am saying if it goes similarly you’re getting a worse return than that.

It was also during a flat cap and Karlsson was making $10 million a year. Not an apples to apples comparison in terms of the situation.

Believe @Peat is asking if there are reports

Because $5M isn’t just no big deal

$5 million over 2 years isn't really all that much. They ate $2.25 million in dead money last year split between Petry ($1.25 million) and Smith ($1 million), plus they're still paying JJ about $900k for his buyout. In 2023-2024, they paid Petry $4.125 million between his $3 million signing bonus and his $1.125 million retained money.

It's a high AAV but it's not much actual money.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah, seeing if there was any reports, although being reminded of his low actual money left at this point is welcome.

Yeah he's not owed much money at this point. After San Jose's retention, the Penguins currently owe Karlsson:

• A $4.35 million signing bonus on July 1st, 2025
• A $3.5 million salary for 2025-2026
• A $5.25 million signing bonus on July 1st, 2026
• A $1.3 million salary for 2026-2027.

If they pay out Karlsson's bonus on July 1st and retain 50% on him after that (which seems to be the most likely trade with him), they'll only owe him $1.75 million for 2025-2026 and $3.25 million in 2026-2027. It's also not any more money the Penguins have been spending on dead cap in the past few years.

We don't have any reports yet for who Karlsson would waive for (or if he would waive) or how much the Penguins are willing to retain. But between their situation and the low money owed, I think it's reasonable to suggest that the Penguins would eat a fairly high AAV of that deal.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

I've seen some talk about trading EK, and I don't mind it, but... where can we see him realistically waiving his NMC for? I assume it's gonna be for straight up cup contenders. Is there a fit anywhere?

IMO, He'll go to Carolina to replace Burns.

 

[HandshakeLine]

That's actually in Indiana. I know this bc I take the turnpike on my way to Chicago and it's right on 80/90.
I'm full of useless bits of info!

Home - RV/MH Hall of Fame

Welcome to the RV/MH Hall of Fame Our mission is to recognize, preserve, and honor the history, pioneers, and individuals who have been instrumental in making the Recreational Vehicle and Manufactured Housing industries what they are today. Summer Hours: April 1st – November 1st Monday -Saturday...

www.rvmhhalloffame.org

You are right, it's by Elkhart. I should have remembered. Guess these sleepless nights are catching up afterall.

 

[Peat]

Yeah he's not owed much money at this point. After San Jose's retention, the Penguins currently owe Karlsson:

• A $4.35 million signing bonus on July 1st, 2025
• A $3.5 million salary for 2025-2026
• A $5.25 million signing bonus on July 1st, 2026
• A $1.3 million salary for 2026-2027.

If they pay out Karlsson's bonus on July 1st and retain 50% on him after that (which seems to be the most likely trade with him), they'll only owe him $1.75 million for 2025-2026 and $3.25 million in 2026-2027. It's also not any more money the Penguins have been spending on dead cap in the past few years.

We don't have any reports yet for who Karlsson would waive for (or if he would waive) or how much the Penguins are willing to retain. But between their situation and the low money owed, I think it's reasonable to suggest that the Penguins would eat a fairly high AAV of that deal.

I don't disagree that it's reasonable to suggest they might. Will? We simply don't have enough information.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Don't you all just love that Graves is signed until almost 2030?

Can't get enough of it. Who signed him again? Just want to give credit where credit is due, et.c

 

[Gurglesons]

Here is what I'd be shooting for if I was GM this summer...

I'd probably go Lizotte and Pono as the 3C and 4C, not sure why Koivunen is 3C.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Here is what I'd be shooting for if I was GM this summer...

View attachment 1039036
View attachment 1039037
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I'd probably go Lizotte and Pono as the 3C and 4C, not sure why Koivunen is 3C.

Ew

That looks pretty gross to me. Paying Tomasino that kind of money, not giving Hallander a spot, bringing in Leddy to "help" their LD, keeping Karlsson and just playing Graves with him next year...gross.

The Rust for Quinn and a pick suggestion is one I can get behind but the rest is pretty hideous.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

That's gnarly man.

But I mean... it'll do the job most of you want so hey.

 

[Gurglesons]

Ew

That looks pretty gross to me. Paying Tomasino that kind of money, not giving Hallander a spot, bringing in Leddy to "help" their LD, keeping Karlsson and just playing Graves with him next year...gross.

The Rust for Quinn and a pick suggestion is one I can get behind but the rest is pretty hideous.

All the contracts and acquisitons are designed to be flipped.

We are paying nothing besides cap space and setting ourselves up to tank.

Not really sure what else we should be doing at this time or what you are expecting.