Salary Cap: 24-25 Salary Thread Crosbicles Volume MXVI: End of season wrap up

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I legitimately don't think there is a player that projects as much more than a 20-20 guy at 11th overall in this draft.

You're likely just getting another Pickering, Poulin, McGroarty, Koivunen type with that draft.

I'd much rather have the NHL certainty especially given Laf put up a great season just a year ago.

Well the only way to find out is to use the picks, and hope your development system can get better than a whatever, 20-20 player. If you don't, well, you've missed out on a 20-20 player in Laf. No big deal.

Again, I don't really care strongly enough one way or another if the trade does go down. I realize the picks aren't stellar assets or a great shot at getting an impact NHLer, but if the team's intent on trading one of them, I'd shop around long and hard over the next month before circling back to Lafreniere once all avenues were exhausted, and even then I'd still lean toward simply making the pick and hoping to luck into someone who excels after being drafted.

Lafreniere is extremely unimpressive and the only reason he's even being discussed is because of a draft pedigree that matters about as much as Sullivan's B2B Cups at this juncture.

Strome seems to be the obvious one to be more or less there, complete with tantalising hint of doing it one season long before doing it for regular. Not as dramatic, but Rust played 243 NHL games at roughly .5 ppg before dropping his ppg season in 19-20. Jared McCann is a version of this only breaking out big in season 8 of his career. Nuke another guy who only figures it out in S8 (if my counting is correct, including KHL seasons after playing in the NHL). Actually that whole Colorado team is littered with sorta examples. MacKinnon does four seasons of being a C2ish guy before exploding, Kadri takes a bit step after... 11? seasons in the league, Devon Toews is in his 6th season in the league when his offensive numbers jump, and Lehkonen gets a Rust-ish bump after 6 seasons as a Hab. Without doing the numbers fully to account for partial seasons, Sam Bennett is also in this category.

They're not all perfect examples, but Lafreniere breaking out big at this point wouldn't be a major surprise, which is part of why I'd be paranoid if he was actually available.



Way I see it, it's more likely in 4 years than Laf is a better trade asset than whoever they pick at 11, and has equal odds to blow up, and is less of a bust risk at this point.

I'd love to get better, even if they have to add, but in most ways it's a no brainer.

I thought of Nuke too but he was clearly just kinda ratf***ed by Hitchcock's coaching, but had all the physical tools and skill to come together as a force on the ice. Mainly has a significant leg up on Laf in the skating dept imo.

I'm with you on the "so, why's this guy available anyway?" point. Could just come down to Drury being a f***ing doofus, but I dunno. Who knows--maybe Dubas will be able to snag him for actually dirt cheap next summer after a season under Sullivan.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Another thing is like, the timing. I don't think it matters whether or not this team, as they currently sit, lands a Lafreniere, or how he's gonna play with a 38 year old Sid for two years, or any of that stuff. I think if the team was in a better spot for the forseeable future, I'd be way more open to just tossing a 12th overall at Laf to see what happens. I guess the rebuttal is that now's the proper time to throw shit at the wall and hope you get lucky, but I'm pretty resolute in my stance of the more picks, the better. Both in terms of lucking into (or developing) a gem, but also in terms of having assets to trade. But I don't think Lafreniere is a piece worth giving a shit about long-term if he doesn't pull a pretty significant 180 in terms of his play/production. You can find a 20-20 guy pretty much any day of the week if you really want to or need to imo.

This whole discussion basically boils down to who thinks Lafreniere still has a real enough shot at finding another level or two, and who thinks he's basically a what you see is what you get kinda guy.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

The way this series has turned for Toronto against Florida, Mitch Marner may go to free agency just to get the hell away from that cursed franchise.

 

[Turin]

The way this series has turned for Toronto against Florida, Mitch Marner may go to free agency just to get the hell away from that cursed franchise.

That was always gonna happen barring a Cup run

 

[Duffy13]

I'd take a flyer on LAF, I think he has solid board battle in him, he doesn't quit, he's been pretty much given a raw deal on development and ice time, and that's not going to get better under Sullivan. The Rangers apparently have a terrible locker room thanks to Drury, players seem constantly pissed off. I think a change of scenery to a team that would give him a chance to make mistakes, and learn from winners would be huge. I doubt he hits 70 points, but I believe he is better than his stats show him as.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

That was always gonna happen barring a Cup run

Yeah, but the way it's fallen apart will have him running for the exit. If they had seven knockdown, drag out fights and lost in Game 7, it'd be one thing.

But to blow a two-goal second period lead in Game 3 and now go 5+ periods without a goal - and have to turn to Matt Murray in your own cage - is pretty demoralizing.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Seriously, Toronto is going to go nuclear this summer. The stakes are just too high there. They could ripe for the picking.

 

[GilbertSeinfeld]

Toronto traded Kessel, an American, to Pittsburgh after years of playoff failures.

Auston Matthews is American.

 

[Pancakes]

Seriously, Toronto is going to go nuclear this summer. The stakes are just too high there. They could ripe for the picking.

Even if they do, we don't have what they'd be looking for. If they want prospects, most of ours suck. If they want win now players, most of ours are old af. If they want picks, we're picking outside the top 10.

 

[BrookswasHere44]

The way this series has turned for Toronto against Florida, Mitch Marner may go to free agency just to get the hell away from that cursed franchise.

He's part of the problem. What a softy

 

[Dennis Reynolds]

Toronto traded Kessel, an American, to Pittsburgh after years of playoff failures.

Auston Matthews is American.

WAKE UP, SHEEPLE!

 

[GilbertSeinfeld]

WAKE UP, SHEEPLE!

Finally, SOMEONE gets me.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Even if they do, we don't have what they'd be looking for. If they want prospects, most of ours suck. If they want win now players, most of ours are old af. If they want picks, we're picking outside the top 10.

I was actually thinking someone like Rakell could be a fit. Low maintenance. Reliable. Plays well with star players. Assuming they let Tavares walk, they'll still need to punch up their roster somehow. Especially if Marner also leaves.

You could tempt them with Rakell and get a nice return from them if they're more desperate than some other potential suitors.

 

[Lustaf]

I'm way too dumb and lazy to look, but can anybody think of examples of guys who suddenly broke out and basically doubled their production 400ish games into their career? Maybe it happens more than I realize but that seems like a "one for the story books" kinda scenario. First thought that came to my head was to check Kunitz but no, he was relatively productive in Anaheim before coming over and never really blew up production-wise. Same kinda situation with Dupuis, who was the other guy that popped into my head.

Nathan MacKinnon​

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Nathan MacKinnon​

Yeah, fair.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

He's part of the problem. What a softy

For clarity, I think Marner's a hell of a player and think he gets shafted when it comes to blame and all that. But yeah, I dunno.

I think Matthews having 3 goals in his past 21 or 22 playoff games is as big or bigger than any problem the Leafs have. You gotta find some way to fix that situation, cuz it's f***ing dire.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Chara the obvious one

Sam Bennett pretty much perfectly doubled his p:pg in Florida after 402 games in Calgary. Although it’s a bit easier to double a 28 point pace.

Tom Wilson
Brad Marchand
Dylan Strome (had a weird near p/pg year early though)
Verhaege (bit faster than 400 GP)
Wheeler
JT miller

Im prob missing a ton. But I feel like there’s enough examples where you could say it’s unlikely for it to happen to most guys but also pretty within reason.

 

[Lustaf]

Mathews had a pretty awful turn over for the 2nd goal against. Mitch then does it for the 3rd.

I'm not sure if it's the pressure of that market or the culture they have come up with together but these guys continue to be their own worst enemies.

Now none of that would matter on the Penguins because we aren't making the playoffs for years at this rate but boy oh boy, I may just start to have some doubts about trying to sign Marner thinking I could sell high on him after Sid retires.

IF that was the general thought behind signing him.

 

[Turin]

For clarity, I think Marner's a hell of a player and think he gets shafted when it comes to blame and all that. But yeah, I dunno.

I think Matthews having 3 goals in his past 21 or 22 playoff games is as big or bigger than any problem the Leafs have. You gotta find some way to fix that situation, cuz it's f***ing dire.

Yea, that was a horrible play. Kind of shit that gets you benched if you're making less than double digit money.

 

[Peat]

Chara the obvious one

Sam Bennett pretty much perfectly doubled his p:pg in Florida after 402 games in Calgary. Although it’s a bit easier to double a 28 point pace.

Tom Wilson
Brad Marchand
Dylan Strome (had a weird near p/pg year early though)
Verhaege (bit faster than 400 GP)
Wheeler
JT miller

Im prob missing a ton. But I feel like there’s enough examples where you could say it’s unlikely for it to happen to most guys but also pretty within reason.

Include Verhaeghe and you can include Bunting and Marchessault too. Bunting makes me think of Hyman, who roughly fits, Marchessault of William Karlsson who definitely fits (tripled it!). Zibenejad doesn't quite as he only got a 50% increase rather than a 100% but he's in the same ballpark and honestly as the names keep coming - Fiala had a massive increasive after leaving Nashville, and he was flirting with decent scores there - the more I think that while you can't expect every 23-25 guy to make a big jump, enough do that it's not a surprise, and suspect that honestly most guys in hockey are only hitting their prime at that age.

 

[JackFr]

Chara the obvious one

Sam Bennett pretty much perfectly doubled his p:pg in Florida after 402 games in Calgary. Although it’s a bit easier to double a 28 point pace.

Tom Wilson
Brad Marchand
Dylan Strome (had a weird near p/pg year early though)
Verhaege (bit faster than 400 GP)
Wheeler
JT miller

Im prob missing a ton. But I feel like there’s enough examples where you could say it’s unlikely for it to happen to most guys but also pretty within reason.

There's also the question of why we're using 400 games as the metric and not 23 years of age. Is Lafrenière worse because he went right into the NHL vs. a guy who cracks the league at 22 and produces roughly the same amount?

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

There's also the question of why we're using 400 games as the metric and not 23 years of age. Is Lafrenière worse because he went right into the NHL vs. a guy who cracks the league at 22 and produces roughly the same amount?

I think you have to take into account expectations and that sorta thing if you're weighing timelines like that. If a guy's a former 1st overall pick and he's 400ish games into his NHL career and is stagnated around a 45ish point player, I think you have to view that situation with a different lens than a later pick who goes to the NCAA before jumping to the AHL and/or NHL, etc.

The guy jumping to the league at 22, to me, feels like he still has a lot more learning and development at this level and potential for improvement than a guy who has been through the grind and routine for going on six years. The latter guy, imo, is likely way closer to a finished product than not. Even being really similar ages. /shrug

Now I'm not saying it's impossible for Laf to find another gear or come close to his draft potential. I do think his development's been pretty ratf***ed by dinosaur-brained imbeciles in Gallant and Lavvy. But I'm also very wary, if not entirely cynical, that he'll be able to pull outta this stagnation he's found himself in.

Besides, it might be in this team's best interest to just wait a year and see if he's available next summer after a season under Sullivan. Probably isn't gonna do him any favors as far as increasing the cost to acquire him. And if the Pens miss out, eh. I really don't think it's a big deal, and if he turns it around somewhere else, so be it.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Mathews had a pretty awful turn over for the 2nd goal against. Mitch then does it for the 3rd.

I'm not sure if it's the pressure of that market or the culture they have come up with together but these guys continue to be their own worst enemies.

Now none of that would matter on the Penguins because we aren't making the playoffs for years at this rate but boy oh boy, I may just start to have some doubts about trying to sign Marner thinking I could sell high on him after Sid retires.

IF that was the general thought behind signing him.

I've always gotten the impression from Matthews that he's simply a kid who doesn't really have a passion for hockey, but saw that he's naturally gifted at it and could make a truckload of money, so he played it as far as his natural talent would take him. But in the playoffs, often what separates the good from the great is that extra drive to actually want to win. I've never seen anything in Matthews' game or demeanor that suggests he gives a shit about winning.

As far as Marner is concerned, his playoff performances mean little to me in terms of the Pens signing him because I have no illusions of the Pens doing anything in the playoffs any longer. So might as well enjoy the ride during the regular season where Marner shines.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I dunno that you can get to the level Matthews has, and do what Matthews has done as a goal scorer without having passion.

I just think he's probably surrounded by a dogshit support structure that's bastardized/glamorized being THE guy on the Leafs making $13M+ a year in Toronto and all that bullshit, and doesn't have some outside force pushing him to continue to improve and evolve. Some guys just need that. Not everybody's Sid, out there entirely of his own volition, busting ass to improve.

But yeah, at some point, if the guy can't/won't do it himself there's probably some merit to the idea that he's simply content to be fat and happy on his throne of cash and fame.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I dunno that you can get to the level Matthews has, and do what Matthews has done as a goal scorer without having passion.

I just think he's probably surrounded by a dogshit support structure that's bastardized/glamorized being THE guy on the Leafs making $13M+ a year in Toronto and all that bullshit, and doesn't have some outside force pushing him to continue to improve and evolve. Some guys just need that. Not everybody's Sid, out there entirely of his own volition, busting ass to improve.

But yeah, at some point, if the guy can't/won't do it himself there's probably some merit to the idea that he's simply content to be fat and happy on his throne of cash and fame.

He shows up to the arena dressed in outfits that look like his 5 year old niece picked out his outfit for him. Nobody that dresses like that cares about winning.