Salary Cap: 24-25 Salary Thread Crosbicles Volume MXVI: End of season wrap up

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I mean you just said it yourself... Jake put up 48 points in his first full season in the NHL. A total topped by Laf only once in his approaching 400 games in this league.

Jake isn't the only one who has played next to terrific players his entire career, either. And besides there is something to be said for players who CAN take advantage of playing next to those guys. Not everyone can. Clearly.

I'm sorry I'm sorta half onboard the idea hypothetically but comparing him favorably to a guy who has been close to a PPG his entire career and has multiple 40 goal seasons under his belt while other dude has to struggle to put up 20 most years seems like a massive stretch.

Jake also had 23 goals, 42pts in 37 playoff games by age 23, and a Cup to his name. Dude wasn't the 80-90pt player he is nowadays yet, but he was killer pretty much from the moment he got his second and permanent call up.

 

[JackFr]

I mean you just said it yourself... Jake put up 48 points in his first full season in the NHL. A total topped by Laf only once in his approaching 400 games in this league.

Jake isn't the only one who has played next to terrific players his entire career, either. And besides there is something to be said for players who CAN take advantage of playing next to those guys. Not everyone can. Clearly.

I'm sorry I'm sorta half onboard the idea hypothetically but comparing him favorably to a guy who has been close to a PPG his entire career and has multiple 40 goal seasons under his belt while other dude has to struggle to put up 20 most years seems like a massive stretch.

I just don't think it's fair to judge Laf vs. Jake on what Lafrenière was doing at an age when Jake was playing college and then AHL hockey.

I think they're stylistically quite similar players who produced quite similarly when they were both the same age Lafrenière is now.

Jake is my favourite non-Sid player. I am not dissing him for how well he did with Sid, he was an amazing fit with 87. I'm just saying that I think - even if he is running out of road - the best-case scenario for Lafrenière is to be a Guentzel type 70-80 point player who can take advantage of playing next to a high-end talent.

Jake also had 23 goals, 42pts in 37 playoff games by age 23, and a Cup to his name. Dude wasn't the 80-90pt player he is nowadays yet, but he was killer pretty much from the moment he got his second and permanent call up.

No doubt about it. But getting dropped onto the defending champions next to a top 5 player ever in his prime is a slightly better situation than the current mess that is the New York Rangers.

I'm not saying Lafrenière will progress like Jake, but they play the game pretty similarly and it is his ceiling at this point.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I just don't think it's fair to judge Laf vs. Jake on what Lafrenière was doing at an age when Jake was playing college and then AHL hockey.

I think they're stylistically quite similar players who produced quite similarly when they were both the same age Lafrenière is now.

Jake is my favourite non-Sid player. I am not dissing him for how well he did with Sid, he was an amazing fit with 87. I'm just saying that I think - even if he is running out of road - the best-case scenario for Lafrenière is to be a Guentzel type 70-80 point player who can take advantage of playing next to a high-end talent.

No doubt about it. But getting dropped onto the defending champions next to a top 5 player ever in his prime is a slightly better situation than the current mess that is the New York Rangers.

I'm not saying Lafrenière will progress like Jake, but they play the game pretty similarly and it is his ceiling at this point.

Yeah, I get it. I just don't see it/disagree. It is what it is.

This is all just boredom discussion anyway during our near decade long annual 5 months of "okay now what" off-season as Pens fans. I don't think the Rangers are looking to trade him, let alone to the Pens, *let alone* for their own pick back. Which is fine by me.

 

[Peat]

He's potentially a stylistic fit for Crosby on top of being young. There's your sell beyond "young but ready".

edit: Granted, this post was before this year. Maybe @JackFr can confirm whether or not Laf still profiled this way in 2024-25. But he at least has been this player in the past.

Thank you.

I have to admit my gut instinct is that if I was getting a winger to play with Sid, I'd be looking for more of a puck transporter type and hope to skill up McGroarty as the Guentzel type. And that even if McGroarty didn't work out, getting wingers that can hang with Sid is the easiest part of a retool and that Cs and D would come first.

I mean, I'd absolutely do Laf is that was the deal on the table and there wasn't a better one for getting a C or D, even with my reservations about what that says to his will to win. I'm not sure I believe in his ceiling. I mean, yeah, Guentzel had a big big ceiling, but he was cunning like a fox and played real hard for his size. If Laf obviously had those qualities, the idea we'd be getting hold of him would be risible.

 

[Peat]

Laf is gonna be Jake?

Where are those other like 40 points coming from holy shit lol

About 25 of them would come from being on PP1. That's the huge thing about Laf. They just haven't given him that opportunity recently and if they did, his points totals would look respectable overnight.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I think the biggest thing to me that kills the potential Jake-caliber play/production with Laf is that I think he's just not a very good skater. Not that Jake was McDavid out there but he was able to get around well enough to pretty much always be in the right place at the right time in the offensive zone. Sucks ass defensively but whatever. Maybe it's a skating thing, maybe it's an on-ice IQ thing, maybe it's a combination of both, but outside of very rare flashes, I've never been impressed with Laf or had any "oh shit, maybe there *is* something there" epiphanies watching him.

Laf just screams Knies-esque to me--in that he's fine, and capable of having a relatively significant impact, but he's gonna have to be the third best player on his line in order to do so imo.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

About 25 of them would come from being on PP1. That's the huge thing about Laf. They just haven't given him that opportunity recently and if they did, his points totals would look respectable overnight.

Fair enough that if he got his touches all year on the top unit that would probably inflate his totals but I don't know if he hasn't so much gotten the chance in NYR as he just doesn't profile as a terrific powerplay guy. Perhaps I am far off on this assessment but I don't really see a big shot or much in the way of playmaking from him and NYR had/has better options from where I'm sitting. Heck the Penguins might even currently have better options.

I can buy that he hasn't been given a terrific shake there but I dunno... I'm as wary as you seem to be.

 

[Peat]

Fair enough that if he got his touches all year on the top unit that would probably inflate his totals but I don't know if he hasn't so much gotten the chance in NYR as he just doesn't profile as a terrific powerplay guy. Perhaps I am far off on this assessment but I don't really see a big shot or much in the way of playmaking from him and NYR had/has better options from where I'm sitting. Heck the Penguins might even currently have better options.

I can buy that he hasn't been given a terrific shake there but I dunno... I'm as wary as you seem to be.

I could see him being a pretty solid bumper/net front guy. And maybe he is but hasn't been given a chance because they've got Kreider as a netfront guy. Maybe he's a really team orientated guy who's accepted this and will explode in time. Maybe NYR are idiots. Maybe he's just not good enough.

I absolutely don't know the answer, but it's a weird enough situation that I have questions. And while I'm sure that he's good enough that if you stick him on a good PP1 he'll get his points, I'm not sure he's the ideal choice to put out there.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Yeah for sure. I dunno... I'm just kinda Occam's razoring this thing... is it more likely that he's this secret stud-in-waiting at near 400 NHL games or is he just another marquee pick that dominated at lower levels due to physical characteristics combined with enough ability to roll over most people in his peer group but then hit the bigs and struggled to put it all together? Seems one is more likely than the other. If it came right down to it I lean towards just keeping the pick and developing your own complimentary winger either with that pick itself, with what is already here or with a much cheaper acquisition cost.

I feel like this is getting a little cute for what we are likely to get in return ya know?

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I'm way too dumb and lazy to look, but can anybody think of examples of guys who suddenly broke out and basically doubled their production 400ish games into their career? Maybe it happens more than I realize but that seems like a "one for the story books" kinda scenario. First thought that came to my head was to check Kunitz but no, he was relatively productive in Anaheim before coming over and never really blew up production-wise. Same kinda situation with Dupuis, who was the other guy that popped into my head.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

I love Lafreniere. What are we dealing to get him? I am not trading any first-round picks until the official end of this era, and probably one year after that. Hell, why trade ANY first-round picks. That is just dumb.

I could see Sullivan working with Lafreniere. His contract is not great right now, but I think stylistically he makes more sense to keep around than Panarin, who is an absolute fish out of water in a Sullivan system imo. Not advocating the acquisition of Panarin, but I think he is definitely a goner this off-season. Whereas Lafreniere might stick around. And we all know Sullivan loves Kreider, so I could see him too sticking around there.

Ideally, Dubas and Drury can come together on a trade or two for Sullivan players that he wants back. We have lots to pick from, so have at it. There are a lot of interesting players in that organization but we can take picks, too!

I am not sure that I "see" the Guentzel/Lafreniere comp myself, but if Sullivan sees it Laf is definitely sticking around.

 

[Pancakes]

Where is this idea coming from suddenly that the 11th or 12th overall pick, even in this draft, is essentially a throwaway asset?

I'm fine trading either of the picks, but you're gonna have to come to the table with a guy a hell of a lot better than a 45ish point player with an extremely faded "was a 1st overall once upon a time" label attached.

I'll take my chances and roll the dice on landing another 45ish point guy who busts his ass away from the puck like Eklund or Martin. Maybe those guys bust, but at the loss of missing out on what Lafreniere is 400 games into his career, I'm fine taking that gamble.

When did I say it's a throwaway asset? I just think the quality of player seems to get a lot more questionable after that 7ish range.

Doesn't mean we can't or won't find someone great, but it does make dangling the pick more attractive.

Again, contingent on how the draft plays out though. If someone weird drops to our range, it's a much different story.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

It isn't throwaway and I'd prefer to keep it if the player on the other end potentially in a trade is Laf or similar but like... that's about the range in which things start to drop off even in GOOD drafts. This is not considered a good draft. I guess I'd just want a bit more in trade even if it meant adding a little bit on top... preferably at center since we don't have one of those for next year aside from the captain.

 

[Ugene Magic]

He's barely used on the PP. His points are mostly all 5 on 5.

Their PP is what kept him from doing more.

Top PP unit
Kreider, Zib, Trocheck/Miller
Fox-----------Panarin


Add LaFreniere to a top PP unit and there you are.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I wouldn't add dude to the powerplay over any of those guys. Rather easily.

 

[Gurglesons]

I'd rather acquire Laf now and hope Sid and him click and he can reach his potential versus take a Laf type prospect, wait three years and then have one.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I feel like we’re glossing over that like 3 different coaches haven’t put the shiny 1OA pick on PP1

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

When did I say it's a throwaway asset? I just think the quality of player seems to get a lot more questionable after that 7ish range.

Doesn't mean we can't or won't find someone great, but it does make dangling the pick more attractive.

Again, contingent on how the draft plays out though. If someone weird drops to our range, it's a much different story.

I think being more than willing to trade either the 11th or 12th pick, regardless of the purported strength of the draft, for a guy who is a 45ish point player 400 games into his career qualifies as regarding the picks as more or less throwaway assets. To me, anyway. The only reason anybody's even talking about Lafreniere is because of his draft pedigree and it's looking right now like he's closer to a Yakupov or Slafkovsky than a guy you target via trade. /shrug

Even Slafkovsky's (50 and 51pts) nearly matched Lafreniere's (57pts) best on a way, way worse team and without being stapled to a 120pt player in Panarin.

I dunno man. I'm not against trading the pick(s) but again, you gotta come to the table with a way better option than Lafreniere as he stands, and with a way better sell than "hey what if" this many games into his career. Otherwise I'll take my chances (slim as they may be) at finding a gem in the draft, or try to work the phones to see if a better player is available via trade. I get that he's only about to be 24, but 400 games and entering your sixth season as a full time NHLer is a lotta time to settle in and sort your shit out.

 

[Gurglesons]

I think being more than willing to trade either the 11th or 12th pick, regardless of the purported strength of the draft, for a guy who is a 45ish point player 400 games into his career qualifies as regarding the picks as more or less throwaway assets. To me, anyway. The only reason anybody's even talking about Lafreniere is because of his draft pedigree and it's looking right now like he's closer to a Yakupov or Slafkovsky than a guy you target via trade. /shrug

Even Slafkovsky's (50 and 51pts) nearly matched Lafreniere's (57pts) best on a way, way worse team and without being stapled to a 120pt player in Panarin.

I dunno man. I'm not against trading the pick(s) but again, you gotta come to the table with a way better option than Lafreniere as he stands, and with a way better sell than "hey what if" this many games into his career. Otherwise I'll take my chances (slim as they may be) at finding a gem in the draft, or try to work the phones to see if a better player is available via trade. I get that he's only about to be 24, but 400 games and entering your sixth season as a full time NHLer is a lotta time to settle in and sort your shit out.

You're going to have to really adjust your settings on what young players produce in the NHL at young ages.

I'd gladly move our 11th overall pick for Slafkovsky, Lafreniere or any other 18-23 year old that has shown they can produce at over a 2.00 pt per 60 rate at 5v5.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I feel like we’re glossing over that like 3 different coaches haven’t put the shiny 1OA pick on PP1

And at this point, who does Sullivan sit to give him a spot on that top PP?

Kreider? The guy he played over Connor in the 4 Nations championship game, and (likely) helped select over guys like Tage, Keller, and Caufield? lol

Panarin? lol

JT Miller? Seems like everything Laf ~may~ be is just JT Miller.

Zibanejad? Dude's fading, sure, but he's got like 90 PP points over his last three seasons.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

You're going to have to really adjust your settings on what young players produce in the NHL at young ages.

I'd gladly move our 11th overall pick for Slafkovsky, Lafreniere or any other 18-23 year old that has shown they can produce at over a 2.00 pt per 60 rate at 5v5.

We're just diametrically opposed on Laf so let's just leave it at that. /shrug

Neither side's gonna budge.

 

[Gurglesons]

We're just diametrically opposed on Laf so let's just leave it at that. /shrug

Neither side's gonna budge.

I guess conceptually the issue is like what do you expect to get at 11th overall.

This is the same argument many of you had with me about Jarry for PLD.

PLD is now a Selke caliber 2C who has some of the best playmaking metrics in the league.

Laf is a similar buy. He's only available because of his mid performance.

The idea is you use a throwaway asset on him to potentially either get a 24 year old top six winger whose on a cost controlled contract that can be part of the new core or you up his trade value and then move him.

If he stalls. You're paying market value for a 20-20 winger that has some size through 31.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I guess conceptually the issue is like what do you expect to get at 11th overall.

Yeah, I mean, I'll just roll the dice. This team doesn't need to get a Laf right now. He doesn't matter now, and unless he reaches that mythical potential people seem to believe he still has, he won't matter down the road either.

If they're playing with trading the 11th or 12th pick, if the Rangers send it over, I'd look for a center or blueliner first and foremost, or a winger with less stagnation to his development than Laf's shown. /shrug

 

[Gurglesons]

Yeah, I mean, I'll just roll the dice. This team doesn't need to get a Laf right now. He doesn't matter now, and unless he reaches that mythical potential people seem to believe he still has, he won't matter down the road either.

If they're playing with trading the 11th or 12th pick, if the Rangers send it over, I'd look for a center or blueliner first and foremost, or a winger with less stagnation to his development than Laf's shown. /shrug

I legitimately don't think there is a player that projects as much more than a 20-20 guy at 11th overall in this draft.

You're likely just getting another Pickering, Poulin, McGroarty, Koivunen type with that draft.

I'd much rather have the NHL certainty especially given Laf put up a great season just a year ago.

 

[Peat]

I'm way too dumb and lazy to look, but can anybody think of examples of guys who suddenly broke out and basically doubled their production 400ish games into their career? Maybe it happens more than I realize but that seems like a "one for the story books" kinda scenario. First thought that came to my head was to check Kunitz but no, he was relatively productive in Anaheim before coming over and never really blew up production-wise. Same kinda situation with Dupuis, who was the other guy that popped into my head.

Strome seems to be the obvious one to be more or less there, complete with tantalising hint of doing it one season long before doing it for regular. Not as dramatic, but Rust played 243 NHL games at roughly .5 ppg before dropping his ppg season in 19-20. Jared McCann is a version of this only breaking out big in season 8 of his career. Nuke another guy who only figures it out in S8 (if my counting is correct, including KHL seasons after playing in the NHL). Actually that whole Colorado team is littered with sorta examples. MacKinnon does four seasons of being a C2ish guy before exploding, Kadri takes a bit step after... 11? seasons in the league, Devon Toews is in his 6th season in the league when his offensive numbers jump, and Lehkonen gets a Rust-ish bump after 6 seasons as a Hab. Without doing the numbers fully to account for partial seasons, Sam Bennett is also in this category.

They're not all perfect examples, but Lafreniere breaking out big at this point wouldn't be a major surprise, which is part of why I'd be paranoid if he was actually available.

Yeah, I mean, I'll just roll the dice. This team doesn't need to get a Laf right now. He doesn't matter now, and unless he reaches that mythical potential people seem to believe he still has, he won't matter down the road either.

If they're playing with trading the 11th or 12th pick, if the Rangers send it over, I'd look for a center or blueliner first and foremost, or a winger with less stagnation to his development than Laf's shown. /shrug

Way I see it, it's more likely in 4 years than Laf is a better trade asset than whoever they pick at 11, and has equal odds to blow up, and is less of a bust risk at this point.

I'd love to get better, even if they have to add, but in most ways it's a no brainer.