Salary Cap: 24-25 Salary Thread Crosbicles Volume MXVI: End of season wrap up

[Peat]

Instant and immediate yes, to the point where the Rangers would never consider it.

They might, but I'd be deeply wary if they did, because that means they don't think he has what it takes to take another step and want to get out of the contract before everyone else notices. Which maybe just is them being idiots, and I have to say I've never understood much of what's gone on with him, but I'd have questions. If the team did it I'd back them, but if NYR were willing to deal him, I'd have questions.

 

[SEALBound]

Lafreniere is the exact type of player the NYR shouldn't be getting rid of. I would probably have said the same about Kakko as well.

They are in an odd spot with older vets and a non-great support group...like us. We shouldn't be selling off the McGroartys and Koivunens. They shouldn't be selling off Lafreniere.

 

[Turin]

Lafreniere is the exact type of player the NYR shouldn't be getting rid of. I would probably have said the same about Kakko as well.

They are in an odd spot with older vets and a non-great support group...like us. We shouldn't be selling off the McGroartys and Koivunens. They shouldn't be selling off Lafreniere.

Difference is that they are being delusional about where they are because they are New York and think they can easily fix whatever problems they have. Which hasn't always been wrong. But unless Marner is going there in the offseason I don't see how they plan on turning around their old forward core.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Any other year and I'm really hesitant to pay a 12th overall for a dude who looks like he's stagnated at a relatively unimpressive level. But this year? Eh.

I still really like the idea of having the Rangers' pick next year though. I don't think that team's gonna markedly improve, and if Shesterkin gets injured to has a down year, they're in serious trouble.

Lets get this straight, it wouldn't be the 12th OA considering them giving it to us means they don't care about it, and probably rate Lafs much much higher than its value. I doubt they do it for the 2026 either. Lafs is part of their solution.

I really do not see an out for getting the 2026 probably later pick. They are not handing the Pens a winning ticket here.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I dunno. I guess you have to ask yourself if Laf's season last year was more inline with what to expect or um... every other year is more the standard.

I've seen enough of him to be very wary of his potential as a true impact wing. But I mean... 12th overall in THIS draft likely gets you a player worse or roughly on the same level as current-ceiling, 45ish point Laf or possibly even nothing at all so... yeah. I don't think it's anything close to a homerun but I also don't really care overmuch about that NYR pick either so whatever. 12th overall in a crappy draft for a young-ish middle six wing with some POSSIBLE headroom is... OK?

I think you'd have to factor in that most of those points are without top PP unit time. Certainly still not "1st overall pick" good, but producing roughly 40-45 points every year without the extra bump from top PP unit points isn't too bad.

If he got PP time here (in this hypothetical universe where we landed him), he'd probably produce like Rakell this past season -- give or take a handful of points.

 

[Rakell67]

I don't think anyone is worth our 2026 1st at the moment.

Knies?

 

[SEALBound]

Knies?

Nope. He'd be a fine addition, don't get me wrong but I'm not giving up a good lottery ticket for McKenna. The top 5 in next years draft are highly enticing.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Yeah, (edit- hypothetically) the fact that the Rangers would risk the egg on their face of Laf turning his game around and finding his potential with an in-division "rival" for the 12th overall should give pause. The 12th overall isn't some exceedingly valuable asset, especially in this draft.

They must be real down on the dude to move him for an asset like that, knowing they not only need to replace him, but continue to add more in another move to try and improve next season.

 

[Peat]

I think you'd have to factor in that most of those points are without top PP unit time. Certainly still not "1st overall pick" good, but producing roughly 40-45 points every year without the extra bump from top PP unit points isn't too bad.

If he got PP time here (in this hypothetical universe where we landed him), he'd probably produce like Rakell this past season -- give or take a handful of points.

The Rakell comp is a pretty good one and works when you consider surrounding casts (Lafreniere has been stapled to Trochek-Panarin and got a lot of time with Fox as well). Worthy top six player but not a lot more.

The obvious difference is Lafreniere is about 10 years younger and on a deal you'd give to someone who can stir the drink.

Would people give up 12OA for Lafreniere if a magic 8 ball told them this was it, this is Laf's peak, or do people need that hope that the 23 year old with high pedigree should have another developmental plateau left in him?

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I think you'd have to factor in that most of those points are without top PP unit time. Certainly still not "1st overall pick" good, but producing roughly 40-45 points every year without the extra bump from top PP unit points isn't too bad.

If he got PP time here (in this hypothetical universe where we landed him), he'd probably produce like Rakell this past season -- give or take a handful of points.

I don't think it's a bad thought and I'm not necessarily opposed. I actually think Raks is a decent comparison. Though Laf seems a little... dumber... in the OZ.

But I'm really only down because it's 12th overall in a trash draft. I don't think much of the guy nearly every time I've watched him play... and he's played with some pretty great players. To me he looks like one of these guys that is definitely a long-haul NHLer and likely even plays 1000+ games barring injury... but not at near the level he was drafted for.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

It's tough because Gallant and Lavvy have done absolutely zero favors for Lafreniere's development. But, how much of that is down to coaching, and how much is down to his choppy skating, lackluster on-ice IQ, and potentially just being a disappointing 1st overall pick?

I don't really care one way or another because the 12th overall is kinda whatever--I'd prefer next season's pick for several reasons.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Out the 23-year-old or 24-year-old players who may be available in a trade, I'd rather use the hypothetical #12 overall on other players before Lafreniere.

I'd be dangling in front of Minnesota for Rossi or to Buffalo for any one of their promising players before Laf. If those deals are ultimately too rich or not available, then sure, but he's not at the top of my target list.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

With Laf you're absolutely gambling on the player he may become and definitely not the player he is now.

I don't really get the infatuation with the guy tbh. I mean, I get that he's big and he has draft pedigree and all that but between his mechanical issues with skating and his stagnated development due to like half a decade of terrible coaching--eh.

 

[mouser]

How would it work with deferred salary?

Ask @mouser

Same as it works now as it is all based on AAV. Deferring salary doesn't change the AAV just the actual money paid and when.

Offer Sheet compensation is based on the contract AAV.

Deferred Salary will change the contract AAV—how much deferred salary in any contract changes the AAV depends on the amounts deferred, length of deferment, and current interest rates.

When a contract includes Deferred Salary, the NHL calculates the NPV (net present value) of the deferred money. That NPV formula determines the % of the deferred salary included in the AAV calculation.


Hypothetical Example: player A defers $1m of salary for one year. The league formula for NPV determines every deferred dollar paid one year later is worth 3% less than a dollar earned when the original salary was due. When calculating the contract AAV the league will include $970,000 of the salary paid in the AAV, not the full $1,000,000.


Why don’t more players sign deferred salary contracts? Generally, deferring money is a net negative for the player. If the player has a competent investment strategy the time value of money paid sooner will usually be better than waiting for the larger % payment later. There are unique situations, especially with taxes or retirement where deferring money could have tax planning advantages.

Deferred salary predates the Salary Cap. When interests rates were close to 0% deferred salary would make a minuscule change in the contract AAV. It’s only in recent years where USA/Canada interest rates have hit 3-5% that bigger AAV impacts can happen.

The deferred salary calculation for AAV does appear to be a point of concern for the NHL. Wouldn't be surprised if the next CBA under negotiation includes changes.

 

[BusinessGoose]

9 out of 10 times, whoever we pick at 11th won't be better than Lafreniere

 

[HandshakeLine]

With Laf you're absolutely gambling on the player he may become and definitely not the player he is now.

I don't really get the infatuation with the guy tbh. I mean, I get that he's big and he has draft pedigree and all that but between his mechanical issues with skating and his stagnated development due to like half a decade of terrible coaching--eh.

He’s kind of the definition of sunk-cost fallacy.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

9 out of 10 times, whoever we pick at 11th won't be better than Lafreniere

I don't know that that's true. Dude's averaging a 40pt pace across almost 400 games. At some point the draft hype and pedigree is just cope.

Might not be at that point yet, but we're gettin' close imo.

 

[Rudy Russo]

What's everyone's thoughts on something around relinquishing the Ranger's pick back to them for Lafreniere?

+ Ryan Graves

 

[HandshakeLine]

He’s looking like one of the worst 1OA picks in a long time, that’s for sure.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Yakupov was a 32pt per season player across 350 games and is widely regarded as The Bust in recent memory.

Lafreniere's a 42pt per season player across 380 games.

Lafreniere isn't Yakupov bad, but there's not a colossal rift there. Dude's pretty much sucked shit as far as 1st overall players go.

 

[Gurglesons]

Laf is great. You all are fools.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Offer Sheet compensation is based on the contract AAV.

Deferred Salary will change the contract AAV—how much deferred salary in any contract changes the AAV depends on the amounts deferred, length of deferment, and current interest rates.

When a contract includes Deferred Salary, the NHL calculates the NPV (net present value) of the deferred money. That NPV formula determines the % of the deferred salary included in the AAV calculation.


Hypothetical Example: player A defers $1m of salary for one year. The league formula for NPV determines every deferred dollar paid one year later is worth 3% less than a dollar earned when the original salary was due. When calculating the contract AAV the league will include $970,000 of the salary paid in the AAV, not the full $1,000,000.


Why don’t more players sign deferred salary contracts? Generally, deferring money is a net negative for the player. If the player has a competent investment strategy the time value of money paid sooner will usually be better than waiting for the larger % payment later. There are unique situations, especially with taxes or retirement where deferring money could have tax planning advantages.

Deferred salary predates the Salary Cap. When interests rates were close to 0% deferred salary would make a minuscule change in the contract AAV. It’s only in recent years where USA/Canada interest rates have hit 3-5% that bigger AAV impacts can happen.

The deferred salary calculation for AAV does appear to be a point of concern for the NHL. Wouldn't be surprised if the next CBA under negotiation includes changes.

"Say his name and he will appear... I believe in mr. mouser"

*clap*
*clap*

Sorry, had that song stuck in my head.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

9 out of 10 times, whoever we pick at 11th won't be better than Lafreniere

But one is making 7+ mil per and the other's on an ELC

 

[HandshakeLine]

Laf is great. You all are fools.

Skeptical on the first, but admittedly right on the second.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Hin was a 32pt per season player across 350 games and is widely regarded as The Bust in recent memory.

Lafreniere's a 42pt per season player across 380 games.

Lafreniere isn't Yakupov bad, but there's not a colossal rift there. Dude's pretty much sucked shit as far as 1st overall players go.

Between him and Sladkovský there’s been some real weird hiccups with 1OA picks of late.