Salary Cap: 24-25 Salary Thread Crosbicles Volume MXVI: End of season wrap up

[Randy Butternubs]

I'm not going to read all that

 

[plaidchuck]

So basically, coaches were irrelevant and all the cups were won on just pure talent other than 91 . Probably true honestly.

 

[Ugene Magic]

<-------Sullivan's systems, and why do we care at this point?

 

[Ugene Magic]

So basically, coaches were irrelevant and all the cups were won on just pure talent other than 91 . Probably true honestly.

I see Ghosts of Penguins past.....

 

[SEALBound]

Regarding the Sullivan system, my hockey brain works far more in a roster-building, GM capacity than an X's and O's capacity. So a lot of coach-speak goes right over my head.

That said, I will always remember something Jeff Petry said early days in his first training camp with the club. He was asked about the system here versus what he was used to in Montreal. If I remember correctly, he basically talked about how much more "freedom" there was in the Sullivan system. How it was way more "player friendly". However, he also said something to the effect of there being way more responsibilities placed on the players' shoulders. And that it was a lot easier to look foolish in the Sullivan system when things break down. He sounded both happy to be playing it but also foreshadowing potential doom.

I always remember that because nothing we saw in the Sullivan years with our own eyes suggests Petry was wrong. If I were to summarize the Sullivan system, it would be something to the effect of it being a system that is easy to PLAY but hard to excel at. And again, I am not much of an X's and O's guy. Lots of people who do this for a living have a much better understanding of this. But it seems to me, the system is predicated on predictability. So to that end, it seems obvious that if you play the game north-south instead of east-west, your teammates will be better able to predict your next move/next position, etc. Of course, so will the opponent.

If I were to hazard a guess, it would seem to me that teams should be more predictable in the defensive zone or when players do not have the puck, but less predictable when they are in the offensive zone or when they do have the puck. But under the Sullivan system, it seems there is no discrepancy there. It's north-south, predictable play by all five members at all times. So, ironically, the freedom that Petry described is actually more rigid. I firmly believe that it is the main reason why a LOT of players struggled after coming to the Penguins. Defensemen, forwards...young players, older established veterans. LOTS of players have struggled to play this way.

You could make the case that it only really worked in 2016. But how much of 2016 was this group of talent being so happy with the new coach bump that ANY coach would have sufficed at that time? Remember, we saw similar early returns under Dan Bylsma, a head coach nowhere nearly as revered as the other ex-coach. Byslma proved to be incredibly unremarkable almost immediately after winning the Cup. With Sullivan, it took an extra year but the results were similar beyond that. In 2017, you could make the argument that we were simply too talented to lose, regardless of system. Most of the 2017 finals games looked a bit like the Washington-Carolina series this year. Nashville did everything right except they could not score (which Carolina has struggled to do against Washington, but it mattered less last night) enough. They also got terrible goaltending and we were simply surgical when it came down to scoring goals. So, the theory that the Pens won because we outscored the problems with Sullivan's system is not that far from the truth.

If we look at the type of players who succeed under Sullivan, it is hard to envision THIS CURRENT NYR squad doing anything of note next season. Drury, one would assume, knows this and will do some major surgery on that roster this summer. Artemi Panarin is one of the most unpredictable players in this league. Generally speaking, that is high praise. Not under a Mike Sullivan system, though. So it would shock me if a) Panarin is not traded this summer or b) he is successful playing that style. If we look back at 4 Nations, who were the players who shone the brightest for team USA? The Tkachuk brothers, no surprise there. Dylan Larkin, because his straightline speed is exactly what Sullivan likes. Jaccob Slavin was awesome, but then again Jaccob Slavin is awesome no matter what so that came as no surprise. Who struggled, relatively speaking? Adam Fox, a very cerebral defenseman (dare I say an EK65 comp?). Kyle Connor, who has the speed for Sullivan's system, but is a lot less predictable in his play. I did not think Auston Matthews was great in that series, either. Although he is having a down year in general.

Back to us, because that is what's important here. Our new coach needs to simplify things. I think we need more separation between what this team does in the defensive zone vis-a-vis the offensive end. Dumb it down in the D zone, so that the players have the freedom they want to be unpredictable in the scoring areas. I honestly don't think it means we HAVE to become a defensive team. We don't need to become the Wild, the Bruins, the Golden Knights or the Jets overnight in terms of style. After all, it is ALWAYS about team identity and how you are constructed. We are and have always been an offensive team, basically since 1984. So that should not change. But if we keep things a bit more simple on defense, actually coach them up a little bit more and give them less to think about, I believe we can get right back on track.

Which brings me back to Owen Pickering. I do not understand one iota why anyone would want to trade this guy. People tend to want to constantly maximize value with former first-rounders, and tend to also be very disappointed when a first-round defenseman is not putting up Zayne Parekh-esque numbers. In the real hockey world, you need several different types of good hockey players in order to succeed. And if you draft a guy in the first round who turns out to be a 20-25 minute muncher who can play in any situation and stabilize things from the back, that is a GOOD thing. OK, so Owen Pickering is unlikely to make the hockey Hall of Fame. He is also the type of defenseman every single Cup winner has iced and every aspiring Cup winner needs in order to hoist the trophy. That reliability is so underrated. And I honestly do not know what you guys were watching when he played for us early in the season this past year, but I saw a player loaded with promise and ready for the NHL already. Imagine how much better he is going to look with another summer of training, a full training camp, a new coach and new system?

We are a team in desperate need of some stability on defense. Owen Pickering is part of the solution, people. So enough with the trade proposals. We should be focused on trading away the players we no longer need (whether that is because they were more Sullivan guys, or whether that is because we need to make room for the younger players in the system.)

Acciari might get back to what he once was before Sullivan, but I would rather move him because he still has value to other teams. Ryan Shea is clearly a Mike Sullivan creation. Send him to the Rangers. Thomas Novak just got here, so it is a little unfair to put him in this category but if were are trying to improve the team, he should be made available. P.O Joseph is a player I like, he seems like a very likeable player. I would not qualify him. Fresh start for all parties there. Tristan Jarry has to go. Yeah he might thrive with more reliability in front of him but his time with the organization is done. If you need to throw players into deals, try to include the likes of Hayes, Heinen or Graves. If you can't, hope for the best that they can look better under a new bench boss. I like Timmins, Tomasino and Dewar and would qualify those three. But if you have to move them to improve the team, go for it. If someone wants Nedeljkovic as a backup, you have to listen for sure. And while Lizotte is an effective player, I do not think Malkin, Novak, Lizotte is anywhere near good enough down the middle. So if you can slide someone better somewhere down the middle, we should try to do so.

I actually like Dawson Mercer as a player. I would not mind acquiring him. I just don't want to break up this core group right away. I want to see what the new coach bump can do and then reevaluate at the 2026 trade deadline. I don't think that is an unreasonable strategy.

Nice post. I did in fact read it because I like it when people read my longer posts.

The thing that always bothered me about Sullivan's defensive system was, when you look at a decent number of goals scored, it always looked like there were missed assignments or there were a collection of players that had the expression of "I have no f***ing clue who my guy is". I think it was easy for offensively savvy players to out-IQ the Penguins players on defense. Different players have different "needs" when it comes to a defensive zone system. Some need super rigid structures where it's "THIS is my guy, THIS is my responsibility" to cut down on how high of a defensive IQ you need be competent in the zone. Others can freewheel just like in the offensive zone. Problem becomes, you need everyone on the same page if you're picking one way or another. I don't think Dubas provided that to Sullivan (mistake #1) and I don't think Sullivan was willing to change (mistake #2). It was a half-in/half-out approach and it was abysmal to watch on most nights. Compound that with Jarry not being able to stop a beachball and it's not hard to see why we nearly finished bottom 5.

I'm just not 100% on how Dubas reacts to the Sullivan firing when it comes to the roster moves. I imagine this next season is merely "hey coach, here's who you have, make the best of it". And then he brings back the majority of the same guys, which I would honestly be fine with. Even resigning Gryz one year.

Then once the coach is established and the system is in place and things have normalized, you can begin tweaking personnel. On that front, I agree with you on Pickering. I like the kid. I think with the system being so weak on dmen, Dubas really wants him to pan out as that solves one part of the larger issue - needing a young, productive, reliable LD. I think Dubas wants him to play with more of a "I'm a f***ing NHL dman, let's f***ing do this" mentality not a "I'm here to learn, don't mind me" attitude. I think he's very capable of taking the next step and who knows, he could be a stud in the next coaches system.

Pickering for Howard is the same as McGroarty for Yager.

It's probably a small upgrade, so I'd still do it, but I wouldn't be excited about it. Now, if they can flip some of these 2nd and 3rd round picks they have acquired for Howard, that's worth getting excited about.

That's probably a fair assessment. Yager for McG was a trade for a position of weakness for a position of strength. I do tend to agree that using Pickering to get Howard would be the same thing. I'm very much on board with getting Howard but I'd rather use picks or a guy like Pono+. If we are using Pickering, I want additional moves that bring back a dman.

I think the price will be higher than we think. Jiricek went for A LOT more than I thought he would. I think my more preferred method, right now hinges on if the NYR give us their pick. Then you trade it down to MTL and give TBL the MTL pick (16ov). I think it's highly likely we take a wing in that range anyway, so you may as well use it on a wing that whose development after 2-3 years is where you want it.

12+63 to MTL for 16+43
16ov to TBL for Howard
Draft at 43.

I think that's honestly the best overall outcome for the roster. Now, I would be happy to toss in a 3rd or another + if needed.

 

[Darren McCord]

I think the price will be higher than we think. Jiricek went for A LOT more than I thought he would. I think my more preferred method, right now hinges on if the NYR give us their pick. Then you trade it down to MTL and give TBL the MTL pick (16ov). I think it's highly likely we take a wing in that range anyway, so you may as well use it on a wing that whose development after 2-3 years is where you want it.

Jiricek was signed when they traded him. Howard is not signed.

Howard has wayyy more leverage than Jiricek. Columbus didn't have to move him. Tampa has to move Howard or he walks next summer for free.

These aren't that comparable

 

[Empoleon8771]

The best comparable trade we have to Howard was when Fox was moved for a 2nd and 3rd, but that was Fox forcing his way to one location. In addition, Tampa will get a compensation 2nd for him without trading him, so you need to offer up more than that to convince them to trade him. I think the ideal outcome is they trade 2 2nds for him, but I think multiple teams would be offering that.

I think you need to offer up an enticing piece like Pickering or you need Howard to basically force his way to the Penguins to get him. If they're just offering say 2 2nds in 2026, I'm not sure that offer cuts it.

 

[SEALBound]

Jiricek was signed when they traded him. Howard is not signed.

Howard has wayyy more leverage than Jiricek. Columbus didn't have to move him. Tampa has to move Howard or he walks next summer for free.

These aren't that comparable

Sort of, I assume whoever trades for Howard isn't doing so without some sort of discussion of signing. I doubt teams give up much if it's a Rantanen situation.

If that's the case, everyone waits until he hits FA and then goes after him.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

A big RHD 6OA pick in his who was signed and having success at AHL level in his D+2 is not remotely comparable to Howard.

who is a late 1st. small scoring wing. Who is 1 year from UFA.

16OA is insane.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I think people are getting hung up on this Hobey Baker winner stuff. I don't think this is a case where the award was given to someone of Eichel, Celebrini, Fantilli, Makar, etc. caliber.

Kevin Porter, yes *that* Kevin Porter, is a Hobey Baker winner.

I like Howard, and I hope Dubas finds a way to get him. But he's not some "holy shit we gotta get that guy" prospect.

 

[SEALBound]

I think people are getting hung up on this Hobey Baker winner stuff. I don't think this is a case where the award was given to someone of Eichel, Celebrini, Fantilli, Makar, etc. caliber.

Kevin Porter, yes *that* Kevin Porter, is a Hobey Baker winner.

I like Howard, and I hope Dubas finds a way to get him. But he's not some "holy shit we gotta get that guy" prospect.

Fair, but in the last 15 years, there are more quality NHL players that were winners than not.

2010 Blake Geoffrion
2011 Andy Miele
2012 Jack Connolly
2013 Drew LeBlanc
2014 Johnny Gaudreau
2015 Jack Eichel
2016 Jimmy Vesey
2017 Will Butcher
2018 Adam Gaudette
2019 Cale Makar
2020 Scott Perunovich
2021 Cole Caufield
2022 Dryden McKay
2023 Adam Fantilli
2024 Macklin Celebrini
2025 Isaac Howard

In the last 12, 10 have turned into regular NHL players.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

He shouldn’t have won the Hobey. Idk how Leonard didn’t.

 

[plaidchuck]

Yeah the award was a joke for years. Last ten years or so with much better talent in college its stock has gone up

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I can't tell if Howard's gearing up to cosplay a hobbit for a theater showing of LotR extended edition, or if he's gonna try to sell me on some bullshit crypto memecoin.

 

[SEALBound]

He shouldn’t have won the Hobey. Idk how Leonard didn’t.

Yeah the award was a joke for years. Last ten years or so with much better talent in college its stock has gone up

I mean, that's fair. I thought Leonard was the more deserving winner but it's not like those that come in 2nd and 3rd are nobodies.
2015 Jimmy Vesey, Zane McIntyre
2016 Kyle Connor , Thatcher Demko
2017 Zach Aston-Reese, Mike Vecchione
2018 Ryan Donato, Henrik Borgström
2019 Adam Fox, Jimmy Schuldt
2020 Jeremy Swayman, Jordan Kawaguchi
2021 Dryden McKay, Shane Pinto
2022 Bobby Brink, Ben Meyers
2023 Matthew Knies, Logan Cooley
2024 Jackson Blake, Cutter Gauthier
2025 Zeev Buium, Ryan Leonard


Again, it's a pretty decent list of productive NHL players. Whether he wins or loses - it doesn't matter. Being nominated puts you into a pretty decent group of players. While it's not a sole indicator of NHL impact, it's a pretty decent indicator of "will they become a regular NHL player"?

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I can't tell if Howard's gearing up to cosplay a hobbit for a theater showing of LotR extended edition, or if he's gonna try to sell me on some bullshit crypto memecoin.View attachment 1033854

“Yeah man so that’s the tour of the whole house. Just an FYI if you do decide to pledge- we do not haze in this fraternity” **winks

 

[SEALBound]

A big RHD 6OA pick in his who was signed and having success at AHL level in his D+2 is not remotely comparable to Howard.

who is a late 1st. small scoring wing. Who is 1 year from UFA.

16OA is insane.

You literally HOPE than who you take at 16OV turns into what Howard is at D+3, no matter the league.

You're also completely and utterly missing the point of the Jiricek comparison. It as nothing to do with player vs player. It was a comment of how the return on him was higher than I thought it would be and I assume the price on Howard will be greater than that of a 32nd OV pick or the 2nd they will get as compensation.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

You literally HOPE than who you take at 16OV turns into what Howard is at D+3, no matter the league.

You're also completely and utterly missing the point of the Jiricek comparison. It as nothing to do with player vs player. It was a comment of how the return on him was higher than I thought it would be and I assume the price on Howard will be greater than that of a 32nd OV pick or the 2nd they will get as compensation.

Howard hasn’t turned into anything. You also hope a 15th or 7th overall turns into Rakell. Still doesn’t make him worth that much in a trade.

Fans continue to overestimate the value of small, floaty scoring wingers. I like Howard and think he has a great release (he reminds me of DeBrincat) but even if he hits in a big way and isn’t a Victor Oloffson— point out many guys like him are playing big roles on the last 8 teams right now. Or previous cup winners. It’s a short list.

Add in his pending status as a UFA and 16th is nuts

 

[Darren McCord]

You literally HOPE than who you take at 16OV turns into what Howard is at D+3, no matter the league.

You're also completely and utterly missing the point of the Jiricek comparison. It as nothing to do with player vs player. It was a comment of how the return on him was higher than I thought it would be and I assume the price on Howard will be greater than that of a 32nd OV pick or the 2nd they will get as compensation.

I mean sure but ZAR had better numbers than Howard coming out of college. Would you have given the 16th Overall for him? I just think you pump the breaks. Howard is still late first round value. He didn't shoot up in value that much.

 

[Darren McCord]

Sort of, I assume whoever trades for Howard isn't doing so without some sort of discussion of signing. I doubt teams give up much if it's a Rantanen situation.

If that's the case, everyone waits until he hits FA and then goes after him.

That's the point. No team has to rush and pay a premium. If howard was sign this would be different

 

[chethejet]

I am not all that excited for another LH shot LW. Pens have Koivunen, Mcgroarty and I have to believe Howe on the way in 2 years, Plus Broz who can play center or LW. Plus there is Ponomarev, Poulin as well. Pens need RW 'rh shots at center and RW. I like the RW they got from the Canucks in the Petts deal. Like last years draft where Dubas addressed the lack of RD in the system, this year is the year to add the above.

 

[SEALBound]

I mean sure but ZAR had better numbers than Howard coming out of college. Would you have given the 16th Overall for him? I just think you pump the breaks. Howard is still late first round value. He didn't shoot up in value that much.

ZAR was 22 though. I imagine if Howard goes back next year, he puts up as many points if not more than ZAR. I would counter with the fact that ZAR was also undrafted. The majority of nominees that went undrafted also did not have great NHL careers or any NHL career. The winners and nominees that did get drafted went on to have good NHL careers (or at least the vast majority did). So there is a bit of a difference between the two.

Again, looking at the list of the last ten years, 8 of the 10 are guys I would give up 16ov for. Adam Gaudette being the only iffy one but he seems to have found his stride.

 

[Darren McCord]

ZAR was 22 though. I imagine if Howard goes back next year, he puts up as many points if not more than ZAR. I would counter with the fact that ZAR was also undrafted. The majority of nominees that went undrafted also did not have great NHL careers or any NHL career. The winners and nominees that did get drafted went on to have good NHL careers (or at least the vast majority did). So there is a bit of a difference between the two.

Again, looking at the list of the last ten years, 8 of the 10 are guys I would give up 16ov for. Adam Gaudette being the only iffy one but he seems to have found his stride.

Butcher and Vesey are not worth 16th overall. And most of the players on that list are top 5 picks who were played one year when they won the award.

Caulfield is the closest to howard and he was only in the NCAA for 2 years. The others are nothing like howard

Also, guys like Caulfield, Conner who were mid to late first broke out earlier. I see no reason to think Howards value shot up that much.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

 

[DesertPenguin]

I mean.... literally any college free agent would be crazy not to consider Pittsburgh. Lots of opportunity in NHL / Farm team (while improving, it's wide open if you have talent)

And a publically stated mission to get younger, meaning the org will clear roadblocks (see Sully) preventing their ascention